Opinion Poll by Data10 for OKDiario, 27–28 March 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 35.3% | 33.7–36.9% | 33.3–37.3% | 32.9–37.7% | 32.1–38.5% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 28.6% | 27.1–30.1% | 26.7–30.6% | 26.4–30.9% | 25.7–31.7% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 13.9% | 12.8–15.2% | 12.5–15.5% | 12.3–15.8% | 11.8–16.4% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.9–4.1% | 2.7–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.8% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.6% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.2% |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.4% | 0.9–2.6% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–1.9% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 26 | 25–27 | 24–27 | 24–27 | 23–28 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 20–22 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 19–23 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–12 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 24 | 8% | 99.3% | |
| 25 | 35% | 92% | |
| 26 | 36% | 57% | Median |
| 27 | 19% | 21% | |
| 28 | 2% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 19 | 7% | 99.6% | |
| 20 | 29% | 93% | |
| 21 | 44% | 64% | Median |
| 22 | 17% | 20% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 9 | 27% | 98.5% | |
| 10 | 54% | 72% | Median |
| 11 | 17% | 18% | |
| 12 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 85% | 96% | Median |
| 3 | 11% | 11% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 92% | 99.2% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 84% | 84% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 37% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 63% | 63% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 26 | 0% | 25–27 | 24–27 | 24–27 | 23–28 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 0% | 20–22 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 19–23 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 10 | 0% | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–12 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 24 | 8% | 99.3% | |
| 25 | 35% | 92% | |
| 26 | 36% | 57% | Median |
| 27 | 19% | 21% | |
| 28 | 2% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 19 | 7% | 99.6% | |
| 20 | 29% | 93% | |
| 21 | 44% | 64% | Median |
| 22 | 17% | 20% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 9 | 27% | 98.5% | |
| 10 | 54% | 72% | Median |
| 11 | 17% | 18% | |
| 12 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Data10
- Commissioner(s): OKDiario
- Fieldwork period: 27–28 March 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1500
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.50%