Opinion Poll by DYM for Henneo, 11–14 July 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 36.1% 34.2–38.1% 33.6–38.7% 33.2–39.1% 32.3–40.1%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 26.1% 24.4–27.9% 23.9–28.5% 23.5–28.9% 22.7–29.8%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 14.6% 13.2–16.1% 12.9–16.6% 12.5–16.9% 11.9–17.7%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 26 25–27 24–28 24–28 23–29
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 19 17–20 17–20 17–21 16–21
Vox (PfE) 0 10 9–11 9–12 9–12 8–12
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–4
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.9%  
24 8% 98.7%  
25 25% 91%  
26 36% 66% Median
27 22% 30%  
28 7% 8%  
29 1.0% 1.0%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0% Majority

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.5% 99.9%  
17 11% 98%  
18 32% 87%  
19 36% 55% Median
20 16% 19%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.2% 100%  
9 17% 98.7%  
10 45% 82% Median
11 30% 36%  
12 6% 6%  
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 46% 99.5%  
3 51% 54% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 68% 97% Median
3 28% 29%  
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 63% 99.8% Median
2 36% 37%  
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 26 0% 25–27 24–28 24–28 23–29
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 19 0% 17–20 17–20 17–21 16–21
Vox (PfE) 0 10 0% 9–11 9–12 9–12 8–12

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.9%  
24 8% 98.7%  
25 25% 91%  
26 36% 66% Median
27 22% 30%  
28 7% 8%  
29 1.0% 1.0%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0% Majority

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.5% 99.9%  
17 11% 98%  
18 32% 87%  
19 36% 55% Median
20 16% 19%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.2% 100%  
9 17% 98.7%  
10 45% 82% Median
11 30% 36%  
12 6% 6%  
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations