Opinion Poll by DYM for Henneo, 23–24 January 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 34.4% 32.5–36.4% 32.0–36.9% 31.5–37.4% 30.6–38.3%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.4–29.9% 23.5–30.8%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 16.6% 15.1–18.1% 14.7–18.6% 14.4–19.0% 13.7–19.8%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–2.9% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 24 23–26 23–26 22–26 22–27
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 19 18–20 17–21 17–21 17–22
Vox (PfE) 0 11 10–13 10–13 10–13 9–14
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 0–1 0–2 0–2

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.3% 100%  
22 3% 99.7%  
23 18% 97%  
24 32% 79% Median
25 32% 47%  
26 13% 15%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.4% 100%  
17 5% 99.6%  
18 23% 94%  
19 39% 72% Median
20 25% 32%  
21 7% 8%  
22 0.8% 0.9%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.6% 100%  
10 11% 99.4%  
11 40% 89% Median
12 37% 49%  
13 11% 12%  
14 1.0% 1.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 6% 100%  
3 64% 94% Median
4 28% 29%  
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 23% 100%  
2 72% 77% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 88% 93% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 24 0% 23–26 23–26 22–26 22–27
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 19 0% 18–20 17–21 17–21 17–22
Vox (PfE) 0 11 0% 10–13 10–13 10–13 9–14

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.3% 100%  
22 3% 99.7%  
23 18% 97%  
24 32% 79% Median
25 32% 47%  
26 13% 15%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.4% 100%  
17 5% 99.6%  
18 23% 94%  
19 39% 72% Median
20 25% 32%  
21 7% 8%  
22 0.8% 0.9%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.6% 100%  
10 11% 99.4%  
11 40% 89% Median
12 37% 49%  
13 11% 12%  
14 1.0% 1.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations