Opinion Poll by Ateneo del Dato for elDiario.es, 18–22 February 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 29.4% | 28.1–30.7% | 27.8–31.1% | 27.4–31.4% | 26.8–32.1% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 27.0% | 25.7–28.3% | 25.4–28.7% | 25.1–29.0% | 24.5–29.6% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 20.3% | 19.2–21.5% | 18.9–21.8% | 18.6–22.1% | 18.1–22.7% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.9–5.1% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.6–5.5% | 3.4–5.8% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.3–4.4% | 3.2–4.6% | 3.0–4.7% | 2.8–5.0% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.3% | 2.2–3.4% | 2.1–3.6% | 1.9–3.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 19–22 | 19–23 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 17–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 25% | 97% | |
| 21 | 49% | 72% | Median |
| 22 | 20% | 22% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 17% | 99.0% | |
| 19 | 50% | 82% | Median |
| 20 | 29% | 32% | |
| 21 | 3% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 11% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 51% | 89% | Median |
| 15 | 34% | 38% | |
| 16 | 4% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 21% | 100% | |
| 3 | 77% | 79% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 74% | 99.7% | Median |
| 3 | 26% | 26% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 46% | 100% | |
| 2 | 54% | 54% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 0% | 20–22 | 20–22 | 19–22 | 19–23 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 0% | 18–20 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 17–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 25% | 97% | |
| 21 | 49% | 72% | Median |
| 22 | 20% | 22% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 17% | 99.0% | |
| 19 | 50% | 82% | Median |
| 20 | 29% | 32% | |
| 21 | 3% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 11% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 51% | 89% | Median |
| 15 | 34% | 38% | |
| 16 | 4% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ateneo del Dato
- Commissioner(s): elDiario.es
- Fieldwork period: 18–22 February 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.78%