Opinion Poll by Ateneo del Dato, 22–26 April 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 31.7% | 30.4–33.1% | 30.0–33.4% | 29.7–33.8% | 29.1–34.4% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 27.5% | 26.2–28.8% | 25.9–29.2% | 25.6–29.5% | 25.0–30.1% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 18.4% | 17.3–19.6% | 17.0–19.9% | 16.8–20.2% | 16.2–20.7% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.3–4.4% | 3.2–4.6% | 3.0–4.7% | 2.8–5.0% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 3.0–4.0% | 2.8–4.2% | 2.7–4.3% | 2.5–4.6% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.7% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.6% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.4–3.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 21–23 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 20–24 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 17–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 11–14 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 21 | 15% | 99.4% | |
| 22 | 39% | 85% | Median |
| 23 | 39% | 46% | |
| 24 | 6% | 6% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 18 | 14% | 99.4% | |
| 19 | 49% | 86% | Median |
| 20 | 32% | 37% | |
| 21 | 5% | 5% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 32% | 98% | |
| 13 | 54% | 66% | Median |
| 14 | 12% | 12% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 78% | 99.7% | Median |
| 3 | 21% | 21% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 91% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 5% | 5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 67% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 33% | 33% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 99.8% | Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 21–23 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 20–24 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 0% | 18–20 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 17–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 11–14 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 21 | 15% | 99.4% | |
| 22 | 39% | 85% | Median |
| 23 | 39% | 46% | |
| 24 | 6% | 6% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 18 | 14% | 99.4% | |
| 19 | 49% | 86% | Median |
| 20 | 32% | 37% | |
| 21 | 5% | 5% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 32% | 98% | |
| 13 | 54% | 66% | Median |
| 14 | 12% | 12% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ateneo del Dato
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 22–26 April 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.41%