Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 2.7% | 1.5–3.7% | 1.3–3.9% | 1.2–4.1% | 1.0–4.5% |
| 11–14 November 2024 | GAD3 Mediaset |
2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
| 8–11 November 2024 | DYM Henneo |
1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.5% | 0.8–2.9% |
| 5–8 November 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
1.7% | 1.3–2.4% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–3.1% |
| 24–31 October 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
3.3% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.6–4.2% | 2.4–4.5% |
| 21–24 October 2024 | GAD3 ABC |
1.9% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.0–3.3% |
| 22 October 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
2.6% | 1.9–3.7% | 1.7–4.0% | 1.5–4.3% | 1.3–4.8% |
| 16–18 October 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
3.1% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 2.0–4.8% |
| 16–18 October 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
3.4% | 2.9–3.9% | 2.8–4.1% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.5% |
| 16–18 October 2024 | DYM Henneo |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 8–11 October 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| 20–27 September 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
3.3% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.6–4.2% | 2.4–4.5% |
| 25–27 September 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
4.9% | 4.3–5.6% | 4.2–5.8% | 4.0–5.9% | 3.8–6.3% |
| 23–26 September 2024 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% |
| 16–20 September 2024 | InvyMark laSexta |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–19 September 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| 1–13 September 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.8–5.1% | 2.5–5.6% |
| 3–6 September 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
| 2–6 September 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
3.3% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.4–4.5% | 2.1–4.9% |
| 2–6 September 2024 | CIS | 2.9% | 2.6–3.3% | 2.5–3.4% | 2.4–3.5% | 2.3–3.7% |
| 26–31 August 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
4.5% | 4.0–5.1% | 3.8–5.3% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.7% |
| 22–29 August 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
3.4% | 3.0–3.9% | 2.8–4.1% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.5% |
| 20–23 August 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
3.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.8–5.3% | 2.6–5.6% | 2.3–6.2% |
| 19–23 August 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
4.7% | 4.1–5.4% | 4.0–5.6% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.6–6.1% |
| 1–9 August 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
3.7% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.7–5.2% | 2.5–5.5% | 2.2–6.1% |
| 5–8 August 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
3.1% | 2.7–3.6% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.2% |
| 22 July 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
4.1% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.6% | 2.8–5.9% | 2.4–6.5% |
| 18–20 July 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
4.1% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.1–5.4% | 2.8–5.8% |
| 12–18 July 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
2.9% | 2.5–3.4% | 2.4–3.5% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.1–3.9% |
| 1–10 July 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
3.1% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.2–4.5% | 2.0–4.8% | 1.7–5.4% |
| 1–4 July 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
3.7% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.7–5.1% | 2.4–5.5% |
| 1–4 July 2024 | CIS | 2.7% | 2.4–3.1% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.4% |
| 25–28 June 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
3.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–28 June 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
2.7% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.1–3.5% | 1.9–3.8% |
| 21–24 June 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
4.4% | 3.9–5.0% | 3.7–5.2% | 3.6–5.4% | 3.3–5.7% |
| 11–15 June 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
4.3% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.8% | 3.0–6.1% | 2.6–6.8% |
| 10–14 June 2024 | Invymark laSexta |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–11 June 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 11% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 34% | 89% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 40% | 56% | Median |
| 3.5–4.5% | 15% | 15% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| 11–14 November 2024 | GAD3 Mediaset |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 8–11 November 2024 | DYM Henneo |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| 5–8 November 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| 24–31 October 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| 21–24 October 2024 | GAD3 ABC |
1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| 22 October 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–3 |
| 16–18 October 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 16–18 October 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 16–18 October 2024 | DYM Henneo |
1 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 8–11 October 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| 20–27 September 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| 25–27 September 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 23–26 September 2024 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| 16–20 September 2024 | InvyMark laSexta |
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| 18–19 September 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| 1–13 September 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| 3–6 September 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| 2–6 September 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 2–6 September 2024 | CIS | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 26–31 August 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 22–29 August 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| 20–23 August 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| 19–23 August 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
3 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 1–9 August 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| 5–8 August 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 22 July 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 18–20 July 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 12–18 July 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 1–10 July 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 1–4 July 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 1–4 July 2024 | CIS | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 25–28 June 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
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| 21–28 June 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 21–24 June 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 11–15 June 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 10–14 June 2024 | Invymark laSexta |
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| 1–11 June 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 53% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 41% | 42% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |