Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N/A | Poll Average | 3.1% | 2.0–4.6% | 1.7–5.1% | 1.6–5.4% | 1.3–5.8% |
22 October 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
2.6% | 1.9–3.7% | 1.7–4.0% | 1.5–4.3% | 1.3–4.8% |
16–18 October 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
3.1% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 2.0–4.8% |
16–18 October 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
3.4% | 2.9–3.9% | 2.8–4.1% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.5% |
16–18 October 2024 | DYM Henneo |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
8–11 October 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
20–27 September 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
3.3% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.6–4.2% | 2.4–4.5% |
25–27 September 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
4.9% | 4.3–5.6% | 4.2–5.8% | 4.0–5.9% | 3.8–6.3% |
23–26 September 2024 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% |
16–20 September 2024 | InvyMark laSexta |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
18–19 September 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
1–13 September 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.8–5.1% | 2.5–5.6% |
3–6 September 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
2–6 September 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
3.3% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.4–4.5% | 2.1–4.9% |
2–6 September 2024 | CIS | 2.9% | 2.6–3.3% | 2.5–3.4% | 2.4–3.5% | 2.3–3.7% |
26–31 August 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
4.5% | 4.0–5.1% | 3.8–5.3% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.7% |
22–29 August 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
3.4% | 3.0–3.9% | 2.8–4.1% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.5% |
20–23 August 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
3.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.8–5.3% | 2.6–5.6% | 2.3–6.2% |
19–23 August 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
4.7% | 4.1–5.4% | 4.0–5.6% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.6–6.1% |
1–9 August 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
3.7% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.7–5.2% | 2.5–5.5% | 2.2–6.1% |
5–8 August 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
3.1% | 2.7–3.6% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.2% |
22 July 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
4.1% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.6% | 2.8–5.9% | 2.4–6.5% |
18–20 July 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
4.1% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.1–5.4% | 2.8–5.8% |
12–18 July 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
2.9% | 2.5–3.4% | 2.4–3.5% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.1–3.9% |
1–10 July 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
3.1% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.2–4.5% | 2.0–4.8% | 1.7–5.4% |
1–4 July 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
3.7% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.7–5.1% | 2.4–5.5% |
1–4 July 2024 | CIS | 2.7% | 2.4–3.1% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.4% |
25–28 June 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
3.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
21–28 June 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
2.7% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.1–3.5% | 1.9–3.8% |
21–24 June 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
4.4% | 3.9–5.0% | 3.7–5.2% | 3.6–5.4% | 3.3–5.7% |
11–15 June 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
4.3% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.8% | 3.0–6.1% | 2.6–6.8% |
10–14 June 2024 | Invymark laSexta |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–11 June 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI).
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
0.5–1.5% | 2% | 100% | |
1.5–2.5% | 26% | 98% | |
2.5–3.5% | 43% | 72% | Median |
3.5–4.5% | 18% | 28% | |
4.5–5.5% | 9% | 10% | |
5.5–6.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
6.5–7.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N/A | Poll Average | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 0–4 |
22 October 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–3 |
16–18 October 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
16–18 October 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
16–18 October 2024 | DYM Henneo |
1 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
8–11 October 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
20–27 September 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
25–27 September 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
23–26 September 2024 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
16–20 September 2024 | InvyMark laSexta |
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18–19 September 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
1–13 September 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
3–6 September 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
2–6 September 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
2–6 September 2024 | CIS | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
26–31 August 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
22–29 August 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
20–23 August 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
19–23 August 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
3 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
1–9 August 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
5–8 August 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
22 July 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
18–20 July 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
12–18 July 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
1–10 July 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
1–4 July 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
1–4 July 2024 | CIS | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
25–28 June 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
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21–28 June 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
21–24 June 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
11–15 June 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
10–14 June 2024 | Invymark laSexta |
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1–11 June 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI).
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0.9% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 42% | 99.1% | |
2 | 44% | 57% | Median |
3 | 11% | 13% | |
4 | 2% | 2% | |
5 | 0% | 0% |