Opinion Poll by Sigma Dos for El Mundo, 24–29 April 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 32.3% 30.6–34.0% 30.1–34.6% 29.7–35.0% 28.9–35.8%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 28.4% 26.7–30.1% 26.3–30.6% 25.9–31.0% 25.1–31.8%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 17.2% 15.9–18.6% 15.5–19.1% 15.2–19.4% 14.5–20.1%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.2% 3.6–5.1% 3.4–5.3% 3.2–5.5% 2.9–6.0%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.3% 2.7–4.5% 2.6–4.7% 2.3–5.1%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.6% 1.9–3.7% 1.7–4.1%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.1–3.2%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.2%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.2%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.5%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.3%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 22 21–23 21–24 21–24 20–25
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 20 18–21 18–21 18–21 17–22
Vox (PfE) 0 12 11–13 11–13 10–13 10–13
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2–3 1–3 1–3
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 2% 100%  
21 11% 98%  
22 61% 87% Median
23 21% 26%  
24 5% 5%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.9% 99.9%  
18 13% 99.0%  
19 28% 86%  
20 15% 58% Median
21 40% 43%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 4% 99.7%  
11 14% 96%  
12 65% 82% Median
13 17% 17%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 74% 99.7% Median
3 25% 25%  
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 88% 97% Median
3 9% 9%  
4 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 65% 100% Median
2 35% 35%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 90% 91% Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 13% 13%  
2 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 11%  
2 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 16% 16%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 22 0% 21–23 21–24 21–24 20–25
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 20 0% 18–21 18–21 18–21 17–22
Vox (PfE) 0 12 0% 11–13 11–13 10–13 10–13
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 2% 100%  
21 11% 98%  
22 61% 87% Median
23 21% 26%  
24 5% 5%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.9% 99.9%  
18 13% 99.0%  
19 28% 86%  
20 15% 58% Median
21 40% 43%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 4% 99.7%  
11 14% 96%  
12 65% 82% Median
13 17% 17%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations