Opinion Poll by Target Point for El Debate, 27–28 May 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 31.2% | 29.4–33.1% | 28.8–33.7% | 28.4–34.1% | 27.5–35.1% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 25.4% | 23.7–27.3% | 23.2–27.8% | 22.8–28.2% | 22.0–29.1% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 18.9% | 17.4–20.5% | 16.9–21.0% | 16.6–21.4% | 15.9–22.2% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.2–4.3% | 1.9–4.8% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.6% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 20–25 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 14 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 13% | 98% | |
| 22 | 31% | 85% | |
| 23 | 33% | 54% | Median |
| 24 | 17% | 21% | |
| 25 | 4% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 17% | 97% | |
| 18 | 38% | 80% | Median |
| 19 | 30% | 42% | |
| 20 | 10% | 12% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 12% | 98.9% | |
| 13 | 36% | 87% | |
| 14 | 37% | 51% | Median |
| 15 | 12% | 14% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 20% | 100% | |
| 2 | 74% | 80% | Median |
| 3 | 6% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 10% | 100% | |
| 2 | 73% | 90% | Median |
| 3 | 17% | 17% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 54% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 45% | 46% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 85% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 13% | 13% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 21–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 20–25 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 13% | 98% | |
| 22 | 31% | 85% | |
| 23 | 33% | 54% | Median |
| 24 | 17% | 21% | |
| 25 | 4% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 17% | 97% | |
| 18 | 38% | 80% | Median |
| 19 | 30% | 42% | |
| 20 | 10% | 12% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 12% | 98.9% | |
| 13 | 36% | 87% | |
| 14 | 37% | 51% | Median |
| 15 | 12% | 14% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Target Point
- Commissioner(s): El Debate
- Fieldwork period: 27–28 May 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1007
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.49%