Opinion Poll by Target Point for El Debate, 17–18 June 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 32.0% | 30.2–33.9% | 29.6–34.5% | 29.2–34.9% | 28.3–35.8% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 25.6% | 23.9–27.5% | 23.5–28.0% | 23.0–28.4% | 22.3–29.3% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 18.1% | 16.6–19.7% | 16.2–20.2% | 15.9–20.6% | 15.2–21.4% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–4.9% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 2.0–4.8% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.5–3.1% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 20–25 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 17–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 12–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–15 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 12% | 98% | |
| 22 | 34% | 86% | |
| 23 | 32% | 52% | Median |
| 24 | 16% | 20% | |
| 25 | 3% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 16 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 17 | 24% | 94% | |
| 18 | 41% | 70% | Median |
| 19 | 23% | 29% | |
| 20 | 5% | 6% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 11 | 9% | 99.5% | |
| 12 | 37% | 90% | |
| 13 | 40% | 53% | Median |
| 14 | 12% | 14% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 25% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 68% | 75% | Median |
| 4 | 6% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 15% | 100% | |
| 2 | 79% | 85% | Median |
| 3 | 6% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 12% | 100% | |
| 2 | 74% | 88% | Median |
| 3 | 13% | 14% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 85% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 13% | 13% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 21–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 20–25 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 17–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 12–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–15 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 12% | 98% | |
| 22 | 34% | 86% | |
| 23 | 32% | 52% | Median |
| 24 | 16% | 20% | |
| 25 | 3% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 16 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 17 | 24% | 94% | |
| 18 | 41% | 70% | Median |
| 19 | 23% | 29% | |
| 20 | 5% | 6% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 11 | 9% | 99.5% | |
| 12 | 37% | 90% | |
| 13 | 40% | 53% | Median |
| 14 | 12% | 14% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Target Point
- Commissioner(s): El Debate
- Fieldwork period: 17–18 June 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1022
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.93%