Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 25 June–1 July 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 34.6% | 32.2–37.1% | 31.5–37.8% | 30.9–38.4% | 29.8–39.6% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 22.9–27.3% | 22.3–28.0% | 21.8–28.5% | 20.8–29.7% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 17.8% | 16.0–19.9% | 15.5–20.5% | 15.0–21.0% | 14.2–22.1% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.6–5.2% | 2.5–5.4% | 2.1–6.1% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–5.0% | 2.3–5.3% | 2.0–5.9% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.7–3.8% | 1.6–4.1% | 1.3–4.6% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.3–3.3% | 1.2–3.5% | 1.0–4.0% |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.1–2.5% | 1.0–2.7% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.7–3.4% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.8–2.7% | 0.6–3.2% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.1% | 0.3–2.5% |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.4–1.7% | 0.4–1.9% | 0.2–2.2% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% | 0.1–1.7% |
| Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.8% | 0.0–0.9% | 0.0–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–20 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 21 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 28% | 95% | |
| 23 | 9% | 67% | |
| 24 | 24% | 58% | Median |
| 25 | 32% | 33% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 15 | 29% | 99.3% | |
| 16 | 21% | 70% | Median |
| 17 | 37% | 49% | |
| 18 | 9% | 12% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 11 | 9% | 97% | |
| 12 | 32% | 88% | |
| 13 | 54% | 56% | Median |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 9% | 100% | |
| 2 | 58% | 91% | Median |
| 3 | 31% | 33% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 27% | 100% | |
| 2 | 31% | 73% | Median |
| 3 | 41% | 42% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 45% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 53% | 55% | Median |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 90% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 8% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 88% | Median |
| 2 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 39% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 60% | 61% | Median |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 7% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 0% | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 0% | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–20 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 11–13 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 21 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 28% | 95% | |
| 23 | 9% | 67% | |
| 24 | 24% | 58% | Median |
| 25 | 32% | 33% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 15 | 29% | 99.3% | |
| 16 | 21% | 70% | Median |
| 17 | 37% | 49% | |
| 18 | 9% | 12% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 11 | 9% | 97% | |
| 12 | 32% | 88% | |
| 13 | 54% | 56% | Median |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NC Report
- Commissioner(s): La Razón
- Fieldwork period: 25 June–1 July 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 628
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 5.38%