Opinion Poll by Target Point for El Debate, 15–17 July 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 32.1% | 30.2–34.0% | 29.7–34.6% | 29.2–35.0% | 28.4–36.0% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 26.1% | 24.4–27.9% | 23.9–28.5% | 23.5–28.9% | 22.7–29.8% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 17.6% | 16.2–19.3% | 15.7–19.7% | 15.4–20.1% | 14.7–20.9% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.3% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.8–3.9% | 1.6–4.3% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.8–3.8% | 1.5–4.2% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.7–3.4% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.4–3.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 22–24 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 20–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 12 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–15 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 21 | 7% | 99.1% | |
| 22 | 23% | 92% | |
| 23 | 36% | 69% | Median |
| 24 | 25% | 33% | |
| 25 | 7% | 8% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 12% | 98% | |
| 18 | 33% | 87% | |
| 19 | 34% | 53% | Median |
| 20 | 16% | 20% | |
| 21 | 3% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 14% | 98.9% | |
| 12 | 37% | 85% | Median |
| 13 | 36% | 48% | |
| 14 | 12% | 13% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 60% | 98% | Median |
| 3 | 36% | 38% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 48% | 100% | |
| 2 | 51% | 52% | Median |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 34% | 100% | |
| 2 | 63% | 66% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 70% | 99.6% | Median |
| 2 | 29% | 29% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 22–24 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 20–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 0% | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 12 | 0% | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–15 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 21 | 7% | 99.1% | |
| 22 | 23% | 92% | |
| 23 | 36% | 69% | Median |
| 24 | 25% | 33% | |
| 25 | 7% | 8% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 12% | 98% | |
| 18 | 33% | 87% | |
| 19 | 34% | 53% | Median |
| 20 | 16% | 20% | |
| 21 | 3% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 14% | 98.9% | |
| 12 | 37% | 85% | Median |
| 13 | 36% | 48% | |
| 14 | 12% | 13% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Target Point
- Commissioner(s): El Debate
- Fieldwork period: 15–17 July 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1004
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.62%