Opinion Poll by Target Point for El Debate, 9–10 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 31.4% | 29.2–33.8% | 28.6–34.5% | 28.0–35.1% | 27.0–36.2% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 25.6% | 23.5–27.9% | 22.9–28.5% | 22.4–29.1% | 21.5–30.1% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 18.9% | 17.0–20.9% | 16.5–21.5% | 16.1–22.0% | 15.2–23.0% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.1–5.0% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.7% | 2.3–6.2% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 2.0–4.6% | 1.7–5.1% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.4% | 1.6–4.9% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.7–3.8% | 1.6–4.0% | 1.3–4.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 21–24 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 19–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–3 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 8% | 98.5% | |
| 21 | 22% | 90% | |
| 22 | 27% | 68% | Median |
| 23 | 27% | 41% | |
| 24 | 10% | 14% | |
| 25 | 3% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 9% | 98% | |
| 17 | 25% | 89% | |
| 18 | 30% | 64% | Median |
| 19 | 24% | 35% | |
| 20 | 8% | 10% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 11 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 12 | 22% | 94% | |
| 13 | 36% | 72% | Median |
| 14 | 24% | 35% | |
| 15 | 9% | 11% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 39% | 98.7% | |
| 3 | 51% | 60% | Median |
| 4 | 8% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 19% | 100% | |
| 2 | 65% | 81% | Median |
| 3 | 16% | 16% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 40% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 55% | 60% | Median |
| 3 | 5% | 5% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 58% | 99.2% | Median |
| 2 | 40% | 41% | |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 21–24 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 19–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 8% | 98.5% | |
| 21 | 22% | 90% | |
| 22 | 27% | 68% | Median |
| 23 | 27% | 41% | |
| 24 | 10% | 14% | |
| 25 | 3% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 9% | 98% | |
| 17 | 25% | 89% | |
| 18 | 30% | 64% | Median |
| 19 | 24% | 35% | |
| 20 | 8% | 10% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 11 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 12 | 22% | 94% | |
| 13 | 36% | 72% | Median |
| 14 | 24% | 35% | |
| 15 | 9% | 11% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Target Point
- Commissioner(s): El Debate
- Fieldwork period: 9–10 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 668
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.30%