Opinion Poll by DYM for Henneo, 16–21 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 34.7% | 32.8–36.7% | 32.3–37.2% | 31.8–37.7% | 31.0–38.6% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 26.3% | 24.5–28.1% | 24.1–28.6% | 23.6–29.1% | 22.8–29.9% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 17.3% | 15.9–18.9% | 15.5–19.4% | 15.1–19.8% | 14.4–20.5% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.1–4.6% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.7–5.1% | 2.4–5.5% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.8–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 25 | 23–26 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 22–28 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–14 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 10% | 98.6% | |
| 24 | 26% | 89% | |
| 25 | 38% | 63% | Median |
| 26 | 19% | 25% | |
| 27 | 5% | 6% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 11% | 98.8% | |
| 18 | 34% | 88% | |
| 19 | 35% | 54% | Median |
| 20 | 15% | 19% | |
| 21 | 3% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 19% | 98% | |
| 12 | 45% | 79% | Median |
| 13 | 28% | 34% | |
| 14 | 5% | 6% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 67% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 30% | 31% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 34% | 100% | |
| 2 | 62% | 66% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 75% | 98.8% | Median |
| 2 | 23% | 23% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 82% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 18% | 18% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 25 | 0% | 23–26 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 22–28 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 0% | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 12 | 0% | 11–13 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–14 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 10% | 98.6% | |
| 24 | 26% | 89% | |
| 25 | 38% | 63% | Median |
| 26 | 19% | 25% | |
| 27 | 5% | 6% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 11% | 98.8% | |
| 18 | 34% | 88% | |
| 19 | 35% | 54% | Median |
| 20 | 15% | 19% | |
| 21 | 3% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 19% | 98% | |
| 12 | 45% | 79% | Median |
| 13 | 28% | 34% | |
| 14 | 5% | 6% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: DYM
- Commissioner(s): Henneo
- Fieldwork period: 16–21 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1017
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.55%