Opinion Poll by DYM for 20Minutos, 5–7 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 34.0% | 32.1–36.0% | 31.6–36.5% | 31.2–37.0% | 30.3–38.0% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 28.2% | 26.4–30.1% | 25.9–30.6% | 25.5–31.0% | 24.7–32.0% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 18.2% | 16.7–19.8% | 16.3–20.3% | 15.9–20.7% | 15.3–21.5% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.8–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.5% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.2% | 0.1–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 22–26 | 22–27 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 19–21 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 18–23 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 12–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 22 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 18% | 96% | |
| 24 | 33% | 78% | Median |
| 25 | 32% | 45% | |
| 26 | 11% | 13% | |
| 27 | 2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 18 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 22% | 94% | |
| 20 | 39% | 72% | Median |
| 21 | 25% | 33% | |
| 22 | 8% | 9% | |
| 23 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 11 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 30% | 94% | |
| 13 | 42% | 64% | Median |
| 14 | 19% | 22% | |
| 15 | 3% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 56% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 43% | 43% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 68% | 99.5% | Median |
| 2 | 31% | 31% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 85% | 92% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 0% | 23–26 | 23–26 | 22–26 | 22–27 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 0% | 19–21 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 18–23 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 12–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 22 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 18% | 96% | |
| 24 | 33% | 78% | Median |
| 25 | 32% | 45% | |
| 26 | 11% | 13% | |
| 27 | 2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 18 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 22% | 94% | |
| 20 | 39% | 72% | Median |
| 21 | 25% | 33% | |
| 22 | 8% | 9% | |
| 23 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 11 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 30% | 94% | |
| 13 | 42% | 64% | Median |
| 14 | 19% | 22% | |
| 15 | 3% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: DYM
- Commissioner(s): 20Minutos
- Fieldwork period: 5–7 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1011
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.84%