Opinion Poll by Target Point for El Debate, 6–9 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 32.1% | 29.8–34.4% | 29.2–35.1% | 28.6–35.7% | 27.6–36.8% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 25.8% | 23.8–28.1% | 23.2–28.7% | 22.7–29.3% | 21.7–30.4% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 18.8% | 16.9–20.8% | 16.4–21.4% | 16.0–21.9% | 15.2–22.9% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.2–5.1% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.8–5.7% | 2.4–6.3% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.4–4.8% | 2.3–5.1% | 2.0–5.6% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.5% | 1.6–5.1% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.5% | 0.5–2.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 20–25 | 20–25 | 20–25 | 19–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 15–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 12–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 9% | 98.8% | |
| 21 | 16% | 90% | |
| 22 | 19% | 74% | |
| 23 | 17% | 55% | Median |
| 24 | 24% | 38% | |
| 25 | 12% | 14% | |
| 26 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 8% | 98.5% | |
| 17 | 24% | 91% | |
| 18 | 32% | 67% | Median |
| 19 | 24% | 36% | |
| 20 | 9% | 12% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 11 | 7% | 99.3% | |
| 12 | 25% | 92% | |
| 13 | 36% | 67% | Median |
| 14 | 23% | 32% | |
| 15 | 7% | 9% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 38% | 98.9% | |
| 3 | 49% | 61% | Median |
| 4 | 11% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 15% | 100% | |
| 2 | 66% | 85% | Median |
| 3 | 18% | 19% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 21% | 100% | |
| 2 | 66% | 79% | Median |
| 3 | 13% | 13% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 49% | 50% | Median |
| 2 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 20–25 | 20–25 | 20–25 | 19–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 15–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 12–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 9% | 98.8% | |
| 21 | 16% | 90% | |
| 22 | 19% | 74% | |
| 23 | 17% | 55% | Median |
| 24 | 24% | 38% | |
| 25 | 12% | 14% | |
| 26 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 8% | 98.5% | |
| 17 | 24% | 91% | |
| 18 | 32% | 67% | Median |
| 19 | 24% | 36% | |
| 20 | 9% | 12% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 11 | 7% | 99.3% | |
| 12 | 25% | 92% | |
| 13 | 36% | 67% | Median |
| 14 | 23% | 32% | |
| 15 | 7% | 9% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Target Point
- Commissioner(s): El Debate
- Fieldwork period: 6–9 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 677
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.67%