Opinion Poll by Sigma Dos for El Mundo, 1–14 October 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 31.5% 30.4–32.6% 30.1–32.9% 29.8–33.2% 29.3–33.7%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 25.3% 24.3–26.4% 24.0–26.6% 23.8–26.9% 23.3–27.4%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 19.5% 18.6–20.4% 18.3–20.7% 18.1–21.0% 17.7–21.4%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.3% 4.8–5.8% 4.6–6.0% 4.5–6.1% 4.3–6.4%
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.9% 2.5–3.3% 2.4–3.4% 2.3–3.5% 2.1–3.7%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.8% 2.4–3.2% 2.3–3.4% 2.3–3.5% 2.1–3.7%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.5% 2.2–2.9% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.1% 1.8–3.3%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.2% 1.0–1.5% 0.9–1.6% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.2% 1.0–1.5% 0.9–1.6% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.2% 0.7–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.1% 0.6–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.5–1.3%
Adelante Andalucía (*) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.1% 0.6–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.5–1.3%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.7% 0.3–0.8% 0.3–0.8% 0.2–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 22 21–22 21–22 21–22 21–23
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 18 17–19 17–19 17–19 16–19
Vox (PfE) 0 14 13–14 13–14 13–14 12–14
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Adelante Andalucía (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 27% 99.9%  
22 71% 73% Median
23 1.3% 1.4%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.6% 100%  
17 9% 99.4%  
18 68% 90% Median
19 22% 22%  
20 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 1.5% 100%  
13 27% 98.5%  
14 71% 71% Median
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 31% 100%  
4 69% 69% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Més–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 65% 100% Median
2 35% 35%  
3 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 70% 100% Median
2 30% 30%  
3 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Adelante Andalucía (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Adelante Andalucía (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 22 0% 21–22 21–22 21–22 21–23
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 18 0% 17–19 17–19 17–19 16–19
Vox (PfE) 0 14 0% 13–14 13–14 13–14 12–14

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 27% 99.9%  
22 71% 73% Median
23 1.3% 1.4%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.6% 100%  
17 9% 99.4%  
18 68% 90% Median
19 22% 22%  
20 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 1.5% 100%  
13 27% 98.5%  
14 71% 71% Median
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations