Opinion Poll by Sigma Dos for El Mundo, 29–30 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 31.1% | 29.9–32.3% | 29.6–32.6% | 29.3–33.0% | 28.8–33.5% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 24.6% | 23.5–25.7% | 23.2–26.0% | 22.9–26.3% | 22.4–26.9% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 19.3% | 18.3–20.3% | 18.0–20.6% | 17.8–20.9% | 17.3–21.4% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.8% | 4.3–5.4% | 4.1–5.6% | 4.0–5.7% | 3.8–6.0% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.2–4.1% | 3.0–4.3% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.7% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.5% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.2–4.0% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.6–2.3% | 1.5–2.4% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% |
| Adelante Andalucía (*) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–1.8% | 1.1–1.9% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.1% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.0% |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.9–1.4% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.3% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.2% | 0.7–1.3% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.6% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 21–22 | 21–23 | 20–23 | 20–23 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 17 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 15–19 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 14 | 13–14 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–15 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Adelante Andalucía (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 3% | 100% | |
| 21 | 44% | 97% | |
| 22 | 48% | 53% | Median |
| 23 | 5% | 6% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 35% | 98% | |
| 17 | 34% | 63% | Median |
| 18 | 27% | 28% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 12 | 9% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 24% | 91% | |
| 14 | 66% | 66% | Median |
| 15 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 86% | 99.3% | Median |
| 4 | 13% | 13% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 77% | 99.9% | Median |
| 3 | 23% | 23% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 31% | 100% | |
| 2 | 69% | 69% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 96% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Adelante Andalucía (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Adelante Andalucía (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 51% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 49% | 49% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 70% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 30% | 30% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 13% | 13% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 21–22 | 21–23 | 20–23 | 20–23 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 17 | 0% | 16–18 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 15–19 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 13–14 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–15 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 3% | 100% | |
| 21 | 44% | 97% | |
| 22 | 48% | 53% | Median |
| 23 | 5% | 6% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 35% | 98% | |
| 17 | 34% | 63% | Median |
| 18 | 27% | 28% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 12 | 9% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 24% | 91% | |
| 14 | 66% | 66% | Median |
| 15 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Sigma Dos
- Commissioner(s): El Mundo
- Fieldwork period: 29–30 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 2505
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.97%