Opinion Poll by Target Point for El Debate, 28–30 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 31.8% | 30.0–33.7% | 29.5–34.3% | 29.1–34.8% | 28.2–35.7% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 25.5% | 23.8–27.3% | 23.3–27.8% | 22.9–28.3% | 22.1–29.1% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 19.9% | 18.4–21.6% | 18.0–22.1% | 17.6–22.5% | 16.9–23.3% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 2.0–4.0% | 1.7–4.5% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.4% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.8–3.8% | 1.6–4.2% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.7–3.6% | 1.4–4.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 20–24 | 20–25 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 15–20 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 20 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 19% | 96% | |
| 22 | 34% | 78% | Median |
| 23 | 30% | 43% | |
| 24 | 11% | 13% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 16 | 9% | 99.2% | |
| 17 | 30% | 90% | |
| 18 | 36% | 60% | Median |
| 19 | 20% | 24% | |
| 20 | 4% | 4% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 6% | 99.6% | |
| 13 | 30% | 94% | |
| 14 | 42% | 63% | Median |
| 15 | 18% | 21% | |
| 16 | 3% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 43% | 99.3% | |
| 3 | 53% | 56% | Median |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 26% | 100% | |
| 2 | 68% | 74% | Median |
| 3 | 6% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 57% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 42% | 43% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 71% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 28% | 28% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 21–24 | 21–24 | 20–24 | 20–25 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 17–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 15–20 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 13–15 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 20 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 19% | 96% | |
| 22 | 34% | 78% | Median |
| 23 | 30% | 43% | |
| 24 | 11% | 13% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 16 | 9% | 99.2% | |
| 17 | 30% | 90% | |
| 18 | 36% | 60% | Median |
| 19 | 20% | 24% | |
| 20 | 4% | 4% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 6% | 99.6% | |
| 13 | 30% | 94% | |
| 14 | 42% | 63% | Median |
| 15 | 18% | 21% | |
| 16 | 3% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Target Point
- Commissioner(s): El Debate
- Fieldwork period: 28–30 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1024
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.36%