Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Expressen, 25 September–2 October 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 30.6% | 29.1–32.1% | 28.7–32.5% | 28.4–32.9% | 27.7–33.6% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 18.8% | 17.6–20.1% | 17.3–20.5% | 17.0–20.8% | 16.4–21.4% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 18.0% | 16.8–19.3% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.2–20.0% | 15.7–20.6% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.9–9.7% | 7.6–10.0% | 7.4–10.2% | 7.1–10.7% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.9–8.6% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.5–9.1% | 6.1–9.5% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.4–7.0% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.4% | 4.7–7.8% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.2–5.6% | 4.0–5.8% | 3.9–6.0% | 3.6–6.4% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.0–4.2% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 114 | 105–119 | 103–121 | 101–122 | 99–124 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 68 | 63–73 | 62–75 | 61–77 | 59–79 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 66 | 61–71 | 59–72 | 59–74 | 57–76 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 32 | 29–36 | 28–37 | 27–38 | 26–39 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 28 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 24–33 | 22–35 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 22 | 20–26 | 19–26 | 18–27 | 17–29 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 17 | 15–21 | 0–22 | 0–22 | 0–24 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–15 | 0–16 | 0–17 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 101 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 102 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 103 | 2% | 96% | |
| 104 | 2% | 94% | |
| 105 | 3% | 91% | |
| 106 | 4% | 88% | |
| 107 | 4% | 84% | |
| 108 | 5% | 80% | |
| 109 | 3% | 76% | |
| 110 | 5% | 72% | |
| 111 | 5% | 67% | |
| 112 | 5% | 62% | |
| 113 | 6% | 56% | |
| 114 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 115 | 10% | 45% | |
| 116 | 6% | 35% | |
| 117 | 8% | 29% | |
| 118 | 6% | 21% | |
| 119 | 6% | 16% | |
| 120 | 4% | 10% | |
| 121 | 2% | 5% | |
| 122 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 123 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 124 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 61 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 62 | 3% | 97% | |
| 63 | 4% | 94% | |
| 64 | 7% | 90% | |
| 65 | 8% | 83% | |
| 66 | 8% | 74% | |
| 67 | 8% | 67% | |
| 68 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 69 | 9% | 49% | |
| 70 | 9% | 39% | Last Result |
| 71 | 11% | 31% | |
| 72 | 5% | 20% | |
| 73 | 6% | 15% | |
| 74 | 3% | 9% | |
| 75 | 2% | 6% | |
| 76 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 77 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 58 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 59 | 3% | 98% | |
| 60 | 3% | 95% | |
| 61 | 5% | 92% | |
| 62 | 7% | 87% | Last Result |
| 63 | 7% | 80% | |
| 64 | 9% | 73% | |
| 65 | 9% | 64% | |
| 66 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 67 | 11% | 43% | |
| 68 | 8% | 32% | |
| 69 | 8% | 24% | |
| 70 | 5% | 16% | |
| 71 | 3% | 10% | |
| 72 | 3% | 7% | |
| 73 | 2% | 4% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 27 | 2% | 98% | |
| 28 | 3% | 96% | |
| 29 | 5% | 93% | |
| 30 | 9% | 88% | |
| 31 | 16% | 78% | Last Result |
| 32 | 13% | 62% | Median |
| 33 | 14% | 49% | |
| 34 | 10% | 35% | |
| 35 | 8% | 25% | |
| 36 | 8% | 17% | |
| 37 | 5% | 10% | |
| 38 | 3% | 4% | |
| 39 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 24 | 4% | 98% | |
| 25 | 9% | 94% | |
| 26 | 12% | 85% | |
| 27 | 13% | 72% | |
| 28 | 15% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 29 | 16% | 44% | |
| 30 | 12% | 29% | |
| 31 | 8% | 17% | |
| 32 | 4% | 9% | |
| 33 | 2% | 5% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 19 | 6% | 96% | |
| 20 | 10% | 90% | |
| 21 | 16% | 80% | |
| 22 | 18% | 64% | Last Result, Median |
| 23 | 13% | 46% | |
| 24 | 15% | 33% | |
| 25 | 8% | 18% | |
| 26 | 6% | 10% | |
| 27 | 3% | 4% | |
| 28 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 93% | |
| 2 | 0% | 93% | |
| 3 | 0% | 93% | |
| 4 | 0% | 93% | |
| 5 | 0% | 93% | |
| 6 | 0% | 93% | |
| 7 | 0% | 93% | |
| 8 | 0% | 93% | |
| 9 | 0% | 93% | |
| 10 | 0% | 93% | |
| 11 | 0% | 93% | |
| 12 | 0% | 93% | |
| 13 | 0% | 93% | |
| 14 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 15 | 13% | 92% | |
| 16 | 16% | 80% | |
| 17 | 21% | 64% | Median |
| 18 | 14% | 43% | |
| 19 | 10% | 29% | |
| 20 | 8% | 19% | Last Result |
| 21 | 5% | 11% | |
| 22 | 3% | 5% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 16% | |
| 2 | 0% | 16% | |
| 3 | 0% | 16% | |
| 4 | 0% | 16% | |
| 5 | 0% | 16% | |
| 6 | 0% | 16% | |
| 7 | 0% | 16% | |
| 8 | 0% | 16% | |
| 9 | 0% | 16% | |
| 10 | 0% | 16% | |
| 11 | 0% | 16% | |
| 12 | 0% | 16% | |
| 13 | 0% | 16% | |
| 14 | 4% | 16% | |
| 15 | 6% | 11% | |
| 16 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 17 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 214 | 100% | 205–221 | 202–224 | 199–226 | 196–231 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 181 | 87% | 173–189 | 171–191 | 169–193 | 166–198 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 156 | 0.1% | 150–164 | 147–167 | 145–169 | 142–171 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 144 | 0% | 135–151 | 134–154 | 132–155 | 128–160 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 141 | 0% | 133–148 | 130–150 | 128–151 | 126–154 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 140 | 0% | 132–148 | 129–150 | 127–151 | 123–153 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 134 | 0% | 127–141 | 125–143 | 124–145 | 121–148 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 124 | 0% | 116–130 | 115–131 | 114–133 | 110–137 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 118 | 0% | 110–124 | 107–126 | 104–128 | 99–131 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 115 | 0% | 107–123 | 105–125 | 104–128 | 101–132 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 101 | 0% | 95–107 | 94–108 | 92–110 | 89–113 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 197 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 198 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 199 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 200 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 201 | 0.7% | 97% | Last Result |
| 202 | 2% | 96% | |
| 203 | 2% | 94% | |
| 204 | 2% | 93% | |
| 205 | 2% | 91% | |
| 206 | 3% | 89% | |
| 207 | 3% | 86% | |
| 208 | 5% | 83% | |
| 209 | 5% | 79% | |
| 210 | 3% | 74% | |
| 211 | 6% | 71% | |
| 212 | 5% | 66% | |
| 213 | 7% | 61% | |
| 214 | 6% | 54% | Median |
| 215 | 5% | 48% | |
| 216 | 6% | 43% | |
| 217 | 9% | 37% | |
| 218 | 6% | 28% | |
| 219 | 4% | 22% | |
| 220 | 5% | 18% | |
| 221 | 3% | 13% | |
| 222 | 2% | 10% | |
| 223 | 3% | 8% | |
| 224 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 225 | 2% | 4% | |
| 226 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 227 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 228 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 230 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 231 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 232 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 233 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 234 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 168 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 169 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 170 | 1.3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 171 | 2% | 96% | |
| 172 | 2% | 93% | |
| 173 | 2% | 91% | |
| 174 | 3% | 90% | |
| 175 | 5% | 87% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 82% | |
| 177 | 4% | 78% | |
| 178 | 5% | 73% | |
| 179 | 7% | 68% | |
| 180 | 7% | 61% | |
| 181 | 6% | 55% | |
| 182 | 6% | 49% | Median |
| 183 | 6% | 43% | |
| 184 | 8% | 36% | |
| 185 | 5% | 29% | |
| 186 | 4% | 23% | |
| 187 | 5% | 19% | |
| 188 | 4% | 15% | |
| 189 | 2% | 10% | |
| 190 | 2% | 8% | |
| 191 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 192 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 193 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 194 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 198 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 144 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 145 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 146 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 147 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 148 | 2% | 95% | |
| 149 | 3% | 93% | |
| 150 | 4% | 91% | |
| 151 | 5% | 87% | |
| 152 | 5% | 82% | |
| 153 | 4% | 77% | |
| 154 | 8% | 73% | Last Result |
| 155 | 7% | 64% | |
| 156 | 8% | 57% | Median |
| 157 | 8% | 49% | |
| 158 | 6% | 41% | |
| 159 | 8% | 35% | |
| 160 | 4% | 27% | |
| 161 | 3% | 23% | |
| 162 | 4% | 19% | |
| 163 | 3% | 15% | |
| 164 | 3% | 12% | |
| 165 | 2% | 10% | |
| 166 | 2% | 8% | |
| 167 | 2% | 6% | |
| 168 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 169 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 170 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 176 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 131 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 132 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 133 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 134 | 4% | 96% | |
| 135 | 4% | 92% | |
| 136 | 3% | 88% | |
| 137 | 3% | 85% | |
| 138 | 3% | 82% | |
| 139 | 7% | 79% | |
| 140 | 4% | 72% | |
| 141 | 6% | 68% | |
| 142 | 5% | 62% | Median |
| 143 | 5% | 57% | |
| 144 | 7% | 52% | Last Result |
| 145 | 8% | 45% | |
| 146 | 10% | 37% | |
| 147 | 6% | 27% | |
| 148 | 5% | 21% | |
| 149 | 3% | 16% | |
| 150 | 3% | 13% | |
| 151 | 2% | 11% | |
| 152 | 2% | 9% | |
| 153 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 154 | 2% | 6% | |
| 155 | 2% | 4% | |
| 156 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 127 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 128 | 1.2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 129 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 130 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 131 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 132 | 3% | 94% | |
| 133 | 2% | 91% | |
| 134 | 5% | 89% | |
| 135 | 5% | 84% | |
| 136 | 4% | 79% | |
| 137 | 4% | 76% | |
| 138 | 4% | 72% | |
| 139 | 8% | 69% | |
| 140 | 5% | 61% | |
| 141 | 8% | 56% | |
| 142 | 4% | 48% | Median |
| 143 | 4% | 44% | |
| 144 | 6% | 40% | |
| 145 | 8% | 33% | |
| 146 | 9% | 25% | |
| 147 | 6% | 17% | |
| 148 | 4% | 11% | |
| 149 | 2% | 7% | |
| 150 | 2% | 5% | |
| 151 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 152 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 126 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 127 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 128 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 129 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 130 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 131 | 2% | 94% | |
| 132 | 2% | 91% | |
| 133 | 5% | 90% | |
| 134 | 3% | 84% | |
| 135 | 5% | 81% | |
| 136 | 3% | 77% | |
| 137 | 3% | 73% | |
| 138 | 10% | 70% | |
| 139 | 5% | 60% | Median |
| 140 | 7% | 55% | |
| 141 | 7% | 48% | |
| 142 | 7% | 41% | |
| 143 | 7% | 34% | Last Result |
| 144 | 5% | 27% | |
| 145 | 4% | 22% | |
| 146 | 5% | 18% | |
| 147 | 2% | 13% | |
| 148 | 4% | 11% | |
| 149 | 2% | 8% | |
| 150 | 2% | 6% | |
| 151 | 2% | 4% | |
| 152 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 123 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 124 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 125 | 3% | 97% | |
| 126 | 3% | 94% | |
| 127 | 2% | 92% | |
| 128 | 2% | 90% | |
| 129 | 3% | 87% | |
| 130 | 9% | 85% | |
| 131 | 6% | 76% | |
| 132 | 10% | 70% | Last Result |
| 133 | 7% | 60% | |
| 134 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 135 | 5% | 47% | |
| 136 | 8% | 42% | |
| 137 | 8% | 34% | |
| 138 | 8% | 26% | |
| 139 | 4% | 18% | |
| 140 | 3% | 14% | |
| 141 | 3% | 11% | |
| 142 | 2% | 8% | |
| 143 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 144 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 145 | 2% | 4% | |
| 146 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 147 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 112 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 113 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 114 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 115 | 2% | 97% | |
| 116 | 5% | 95% | |
| 117 | 3% | 90% | |
| 118 | 6% | 86% | |
| 119 | 3% | 81% | |
| 120 | 5% | 78% | |
| 121 | 7% | 73% | |
| 122 | 7% | 66% | Median |
| 123 | 8% | 59% | Last Result |
| 124 | 9% | 51% | |
| 125 | 8% | 41% | |
| 126 | 7% | 33% | |
| 127 | 5% | 26% | |
| 128 | 5% | 21% | |
| 129 | 5% | 17% | |
| 130 | 4% | 11% | |
| 131 | 2% | 7% | |
| 132 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 133 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 134 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 102 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 104 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 105 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 106 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 107 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 108 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 109 | 2% | 93% | |
| 110 | 2% | 91% | |
| 111 | 3% | 89% | |
| 112 | 3% | 87% | |
| 113 | 6% | 83% | |
| 114 | 4% | 78% | |
| 115 | 7% | 74% | |
| 116 | 6% | 67% | |
| 117 | 10% | 61% | Median |
| 118 | 5% | 50% | |
| 119 | 10% | 46% | |
| 120 | 7% | 36% | |
| 121 | 4% | 29% | Last Result |
| 122 | 6% | 25% | |
| 123 | 6% | 19% | |
| 124 | 4% | 13% | |
| 125 | 2% | 10% | |
| 126 | 3% | 7% | |
| 127 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 128 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 129 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 102 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 103 | 0.9% | 98.6% | |
| 104 | 2% | 98% | |
| 105 | 3% | 96% | |
| 106 | 3% | 93% | |
| 107 | 2% | 90% | |
| 108 | 4% | 88% | |
| 109 | 2% | 84% | |
| 110 | 4% | 82% | |
| 111 | 5% | 78% | |
| 112 | 4% | 73% | |
| 113 | 6% | 70% | |
| 114 | 5% | 64% | Median |
| 115 | 11% | 59% | |
| 116 | 6% | 48% | Last Result |
| 117 | 8% | 42% | |
| 118 | 7% | 34% | |
| 119 | 6% | 27% | |
| 120 | 5% | 21% | |
| 121 | 4% | 16% | |
| 122 | 2% | 12% | |
| 123 | 3% | 10% | |
| 124 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 125 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 126 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 127 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 128 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 129 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 91 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 92 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 93 | 2% | 97% | |
| 94 | 2% | 95% | |
| 95 | 4% | 93% | |
| 96 | 7% | 89% | |
| 97 | 5% | 82% | |
| 98 | 7% | 77% | |
| 99 | 8% | 70% | |
| 100 | 8% | 62% | Median |
| 101 | 7% | 55% | Last Result |
| 102 | 12% | 47% | |
| 103 | 7% | 35% | |
| 104 | 6% | 28% | |
| 105 | 6% | 22% | |
| 106 | 5% | 16% | |
| 107 | 4% | 11% | |
| 108 | 3% | 8% | |
| 109 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 110 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 111 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demoskop
- Commissioner(s): Expressen
- Fieldwork period: 25 September–2 October 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1616
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.36%