Moderata samlingspartiet

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 19.8% (General Election of 9 September 2018)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 17.3% 15.6–19.1% 15.3–19.5% 15.0–19.8% 14.5–20.5%
6–9 September 2022 SKOP 16.3% 15.2–17.4% 14.9–17.7% 14.7–18.0% 14.2–18.5%
6–9 September 2022 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 18.2% 17.1–19.4% 16.8–19.7% 16.6–20.0% 16.1–20.5%
1–9 September 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 18.7% 17.7–19.8% 17.4–20.1% 17.2–20.3% 16.7–20.9%
6–8 September 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 16.2% 15.3–17.2% 15.0–17.5% 14.8–17.8% 14.3–18.2%
5–8 September 2022 SKOP 15.2% 14.1–16.4% 13.8–16.8% 13.5–17.1% 13.0–17.6%
6–8 September 2022 Novus
SVT		 17.1% 15.9–18.4% 15.6–18.8% 15.3–19.1% 14.8–19.8%
5–7 September 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 17.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–7 September 2022 SKOP 16.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–7 September 2022 Novus
SVT		 17.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–6 September 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.5–18.6% 15.0–19.1%
3–6 September 2022 SKOP 17.7% 16.5–19.1% 16.1–19.5% 15.8–19.8% 15.2–20.5%
4–6 September 2022 Novus
SVT		 17.3% 16.1–18.6% 15.8–19.0% 15.5–19.3% 14.9–20.0%
1–6 September 2022 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 18.2% 17.1–19.4% 16.7–19.8% 16.5–20.1% 15.9–20.7%
3–5 September 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 18.6% 17.5–19.8% 17.2–20.1% 17.0–20.4% 16.4–20.9%
2–5 September 2022 SKOP 18.1% 16.7–19.6% 16.3–20.1% 15.9–20.5% 15.3–21.2%
3–5 September 2022 Novus
SVT		 17.9% 16.7–19.3% 16.4–19.6% 16.1–20.0% 15.5–20.6%
2–4 September 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 17.6% 16.5–18.7% 16.2–19.0% 15.9–19.3% 15.4–19.9%
1 August–4 September 2022 SKOP 17.6% 16.2–19.1% 15.8–19.5% 15.5–19.9% 14.9–20.6%
2–4 September 2022 Novus
SVT		 17.4% 16.2–18.7% 15.9–19.1% 15.6–19.4% 15.0–20.1%
31 August–4 September 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 18.3% 17.3–19.4% 17.0–19.7% 16.7–20.0% 16.3–20.5%
1–3 September 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 18.1% 17.0–19.3% 16.7–19.6% 16.4–19.9% 15.9–20.5%
31 August–3 September 2022 SKOP 16.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–3 September 2022 Novus
SVT		 18.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
31 August–2 September 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 17.3% 16.2–18.5% 15.9–18.8% 15.7–19.1% 15.2–19.7%
30 August–2 September 2022 SKOP 16.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
31 August–2 September 2022 Novus
SVT		 17.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 August–1 September 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 16.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
29 August–1 September 2022 SKOP 14.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 August–1 September 2022 Novus
SVT		 18.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
29–31 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 16.1% 15.0–17.2% 14.8–17.5% 14.5–17.8% 14.0–18.3%
28–31 August 2022 SKOP 16.0% 14.7–17.5% 14.3–17.9% 14.0–18.2% 13.4–18.9%
29–31 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 18.9% 17.6–20.2% 17.3–20.6% 17.0–20.9% 16.4–21.6%
28–30 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 15.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27–30 August 2022 SKOP 18.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
28–30 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 18.4% 17.2–19.7% 16.8–20.1% 16.5–20.5% 15.9–21.1%
26–30 August 2022 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 16.8% 15.5–18.2% 15.2–18.6% 14.9–19.0% 14.3–19.7%
27–29 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 16.4% 15.4–17.5% 15.1–17.8% 14.8–18.1% 14.3–18.6%
26–29 August 2022 SKOP 18.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27–29 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 15.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
21–29 August 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 18.0% 17.0–19.1% 16.7–19.4% 16.5–19.7% 16.0–20.2%
26–28 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 18.0% 16.9–19.2% 16.6–19.5% 16.4–19.8% 15.9–20.4%
24–28 August 2022 SKOP 18.5% 17.2–20.0% 16.9–20.3% 16.5–20.7% 15.9–21.4%
26–28 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 15.8% 14.6–17.1% 14.3–17.4% 14.0–17.7% 13.5–18.4%
25–27 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 18.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
23–27 August 2022 SKOP 18.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25–27 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 16.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–26 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 17.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22–26 August 2022 SKOP 18.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–26 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 17.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
23–25 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 17.5% 16.5–18.6% 16.2–18.9% 15.9–19.1% 15.5–19.7%
21–25 August 2022 SKOP 18.3% 17.0–19.7% 16.6–20.1% 16.3–20.4% 15.7–21.1%
23–25 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 17.7% 16.5–19.1% 16.2–19.4% 15.9–19.8% 15.3–20.4%
22–24 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 18.3% 17.3–19.4% 17.1–19.7% 16.8–19.9% 16.4–20.4%
20–24 August 2022 SKOP 18.0% 16.6–19.5% 16.2–20.0% 15.8–20.3% 15.2–21.1%
22–24 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 17.9% 16.6–19.2% 16.3–19.6% 16.0–19.9% 15.4–20.5%
16–24 August 2022 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 16.6% 15.4–17.8% 15.1–18.2% 14.8–18.5% 14.3–19.1%
21–23 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 18.6% 17.6–19.7% 17.3–20.0% 17.0–20.3% 16.5–20.8%
19–23 August 2022 SKOP 18.8% 17.4–20.4% 16.9–20.8% 16.6–21.2% 15.9–22.0%
21–23 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 17.5% 16.3–18.9% 16.0–19.2% 15.7–19.6% 15.1–20.2%
20–22 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 17.4% 16.4–18.5% 16.1–18.8% 15.9–19.1% 15.4–19.6%
20–22 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 17.4% 16.2–18.7% 15.9–19.1% 15.6–19.4% 15.0–20.1%
19–21 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 17.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18–21 August 2022 SKOP 17.5% 16.0–19.0% 15.7–19.4% 15.3–19.8% 14.7–20.6%
19–21 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 17.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–21 August 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 19.9% 18.8–21.0% 18.5–21.3% 18.3–21.6% 17.8–22.2%
18–20 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 17.3% 16.2–18.6% 15.8–18.9% 15.5–19.3% 15.0–19.9%
17–19 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 17.9% 16.7–19.1% 16.4–19.5% 16.1–19.8% 15.6–20.4%
16–18 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 17.6% 16.5–18.9% 16.1–19.2% 15.9–19.5% 15.3–20.1%
15–17 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 18.2% 17.2–19.3% 16.9–19.6% 16.6–19.9% 16.1–20.5%
14–16 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 19.2% 18.1–20.3% 17.8–20.7% 17.5–20.9% 17.0–21.5%
6–16 August 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 19.9% 18.8–21.0% 18.5–21.3% 18.3–21.6% 17.8–22.1%
13–15 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 19.5% 18.3–20.6% 18.0–21.0% 17.8–21.3% 17.2–21.8%
12–14 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 19.2% 18.0–20.3% 17.7–20.7% 17.5–21.0% 16.9–21.6%
8–14 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 19.6% 18.5–20.8% 18.2–21.1% 17.9–21.4% 17.4–21.9%
11–13 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 18.6% 17.5–19.8% 17.2–20.1% 16.9–20.4% 16.4–21.0%
10–12 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 19.2% 18.1–20.4% 17.7–20.7% 17.5–21.0% 16.9–21.6%
9–11 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 20.7% 19.5–21.9% 19.1–22.3% 18.8–22.6% 18.3–23.2%
1–7 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 18.6% 17.5–19.8% 17.2–20.1% 16.9–20.4% 16.4–21.0%
24 July–2 August 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 20.3% 19.2–21.4% 18.9–21.7% 18.7–22.0% 18.2–22.6%
8–11 July 2022 SKOP 18.5% 17.0–20.2% 16.6–20.7% 16.2–21.1% 15.6–21.9%
22–30 June 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 21.0% 19.9–22.2% 19.6–22.5% 19.3–22.8% 18.8–23.4%
6–26 June 2022 Novus
SVT		 19.6% 18.7–20.6% 18.4–20.9% 18.2–21.1% 17.7–21.6%
7–19 June 2022 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 20.0% 18.8–21.3% 18.4–21.7% 18.1–22.0% 17.6–22.7%
6–16 June 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 19.3% 18.7–19.8% 18.6–20.0% 18.5–20.1% 18.2–20.4%
31 May–9 June 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 22.1% 21.0–23.3% 20.7–23.6% 20.4–23.9% 19.9–24.5%
9 May–5 June 2022 Novus
SVT		 21.5% 20.7–22.4% 20.4–22.6% 20.2–22.8% 19.8–23.3%
28 April–25 May 2022 SCB 21.2% 20.7–21.8% 20.5–21.9% 20.4–22.1% 20.1–22.3%
10–22 May 2022 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 22.0% 20.7–23.4% 20.3–23.8% 20.0–24.1% 19.4–24.8%
2–12 May 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 20.8% 20.2–21.4% 20.0–21.6% 19.8–21.8% 19.6–22.1%
4–10 May 2022 Infostat 21.3% 20.1–22.6% 19.7–23.0% 19.4–23.3% 18.8–24.0%
26 April–4 May 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 22.8% 21.7–24.0% 21.3–24.3% 21.1–24.6% 20.5–25.2%
4 April–1 May 2022 Novus
SVT		 21.0% 20.1–21.9% 19.9–22.2% 19.7–22.4% 19.3–22.8%
12–26 April 2022 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 22.0% 20.7–23.4% 20.3–23.8% 20.0–24.1% 19.4–24.8%
11–21 April 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 21.2% 20.6–21.8% 20.4–22.0% 20.3–22.1% 20.0–22.4%
6–14 April 2022 SKOP 20.2% 18.6–21.9% 18.2–22.4% 17.8–22.8% 17.1–23.6%
29 March–5 April 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 22.9% 21.8–24.1% 21.5–24.4% 21.2–24.7% 20.7–25.3%
7 March–3 April 2022 Novus
SVT		 21.5% 20.7–22.3% 20.4–22.6% 20.2–22.8% 19.8–23.2%
15–27 March 2022 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 21.9% 20.6–23.3% 20.3–23.7% 20.0–24.1% 19.3–24.7%
7–17 March 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 21.4% 20.8–22.1% 20.6–22.3% 20.5–22.4% 20.2–22.7%
1–9 March 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 22.0% 20.9–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.3–23.8% 19.8–24.3%
31 January–27 February 2022 Novus
SVT		 21.2% 20.2–22.3% 19.9–22.6% 19.6–22.8% 19.2–23.4%
8–20 February 2022 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 21.0% 19.8–22.4% 19.4–22.7% 19.1–23.1% 18.5–23.7%
7–17 February 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 20.9% 20.2–21.5% 20.0–21.7% 19.8–21.9% 19.5–22.2%
11–14 February 2022 SKOP 19.1% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.2% 16.8–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
1–8 February 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 22.0% 21.0–23.1% 20.7–23.4% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2%
3–30 January 2022 Novus
SVT		 20.5% 19.7–21.4% 19.4–21.6% 19.2–21.8% 18.8–22.3%
11–24 January 2022 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 21.0% 19.8–22.4% 19.4–22.7% 19.1–23.1% 18.5–23.7%
10–20 January 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 20.9% 20.3–21.6% 20.1–21.7% 19.9–21.9% 19.6–22.2%
28 December 2021–5 January 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 21.8% 20.8–22.9% 20.5–23.2% 20.2–23.5% 19.7–24.0%
6 December 2021–2 January 2022 Novus
SVT		 18.7% 17.6–19.8% 17.3–20.2% 17.0–20.5% 16.5–21.0%
7–20 December 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 20.0% 18.7–21.3% 18.4–21.7% 18.1–22.0% 17.5–22.7%
6–16 December 2021 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 20.0% 19.3–20.7% 19.2–20.9% 19.0–21.0% 18.7–21.3%
30 November–8 December 2021 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 22.6% 21.5–23.7% 21.2–24.0% 20.9–24.3% 20.5–24.8%
8 November–5 December 2021 Novus
SVT		 21.2% 20.4–22.0% 20.2–22.3% 20.0–22.5% 19.6–22.8%
28 October–25 November 2021 SCB 22.7% 22.1–23.3% 22.0–23.4% 21.8–23.6% 21.6–23.9%
9–22 November 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 21.2% 19.9–22.5% 19.6–22.9% 19.3–23.3% 18.7–23.9%
8–18 November 2021 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 21.0% 20.3–21.7% 20.1–21.9% 20.0–22.1% 19.6–22.4%
5–11 November 2021 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 23.6% 22.5–24.8% 22.2–25.1% 21.9–25.4% 21.4–25.9%
4–31 October 2021 Novus
SVT		 22.9% 22.0–23.8% 21.8–24.1% 21.6–24.3% 21.1–24.7%
12–25 October 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 20.0% 18.7–21.3% 18.4–21.7% 18.1–22.0% 17.5–22.7%
15–17 October 2021 SKOP 22.1% 20.4–23.8% 20.0–24.3% 19.6–24.7% 18.9–25.6%
4–14 October 2021 Sifo 21.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
29 September–6 October 2021 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 22.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 August–3 October 2021 Novus
SVT		 22.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
14–26 September 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 22.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
6–16 September 2021 Sifo 21.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–11 September 2021 SKOP 21.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
31 August–8 September 2021 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 22.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–29 August 2021 Novus
SVT		 22.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–23 August 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 21.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–18 August 2021 Sifo 21.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–5 August 2021 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 23.2% 22.1–24.3% 21.8–24.6% 21.5–24.9% 21.0–25.5%
19–26 July 2021 Novus
SVT		 21.0% 20.0–22.1% 19.7–22.4% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2%
19–23 July 2021 SKOP 21.8% 20.2–23.5% 19.8–24.1% 19.4–24.5% 18.6–25.3%
29 June–7 July 2021 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 21.7% 20.8–22.6% 20.5–22.9% 20.3–23.2% 19.9–23.6%
23–28 June 2021 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 22.1% 21.0–23.3% 20.7–23.6% 20.4–23.9% 19.9–24.5%
21–27 June 2021 Novus
SVT		 21.7% 20.7–22.8% 20.4–23.2% 20.1–23.4% 19.6–24.0%
8–20 June 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 22.0% 20.7–23.4% 20.3–23.8% 20.0–24.1% 19.4–24.8%
7–17 June 2021 Sifo 22.4% 21.7–23.1% 21.6–23.3% 21.4–23.4% 21.1–23.8%
3 May–6 June 2021 Novus
SVT		 22.6% 21.8–23.4% 21.6–23.6% 21.4–23.8% 21.1–24.2%
26 May–2 June 2021 Demoskop 22.9% 21.8–23.9% 21.6–24.2% 21.3–24.5% 20.8–25.0%
28 April–27 May 2021 SCB 22.4% 21.8–22.9% 21.7–23.1% 21.5–23.2% 21.3–23.5%
11–23 May 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 21.8% 20.5–23.2% 20.1–23.6% 19.8–23.9% 19.2–24.6%
3–13 May 2021 Sifo 21.7% 21.1–22.3% 21.0–22.4% 20.9–22.6% 20.6–22.8%
28 April–5 May 2021 Demoskop 23.1% 22.1–24.2% 21.8–24.5% 21.5–24.7% 21.0–25.3%
5 April–2 May 2021 Novus
SVT		 23.0% 22.1–23.9% 21.8–24.1% 21.6–24.4% 21.2–24.8%
13–25 April 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 22.0% 20.9–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.3–23.9% 19.7–24.4%
5–15 April 2021 Sifo 21.3% 20.6–21.9% 20.5–22.1% 20.3–22.3% 20.0–22.6%
30 March–7 April 2021 Demoskop 22.8% 21.8–23.9% 21.5–24.2% 21.2–24.4% 20.7–25.0%
1 March–4 April 2021 Novus
SVT		 22.6% 21.9–23.4% 21.6–23.6% 21.5–23.8% 21.1–24.2%
9–21 March 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 22.0% 20.7–23.4% 20.3–23.8% 20.0–24.1% 19.4–24.8%
1–11 March 2021 Sifo 22.9% 22.3–23.5% 22.1–23.7% 22.0–23.9% 21.7–24.2%
26 February–3 March 2021 Demoskop 24.5% 23.4–25.7% 23.1–26.0% 22.8–26.3% 22.3–26.9%
1–28 February 2021 Novus
SVT		 24.0% 23.1–24.9% 22.9–25.2% 22.7–25.4% 22.3–25.8%
19–23 February 2021 SKOP 24.5% 22.8–26.3% 22.3–26.8% 21.9–27.3% 21.1–28.2%
9–21 February 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 23.0% 21.7–24.5% 21.3–24.9% 20.9–25.2% 20.3–25.9%
1–11 February 2021 Sifo 23.5% 22.8–24.2% 22.6–24.4% 22.5–24.5% 22.2–24.9%
26 January–3 February 2021 Demoskop 23.2% 22.1–24.4% 21.8–24.8% 21.5–25.0% 21.0–25.6%
11–31 January 2021 Novus
SVT		 23.1% 22.1–24.1% 21.8–24.4% 21.6–24.7% 21.1–25.2%
13–25 January 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 22.0% 20.7–23.4% 20.3–23.8% 20.0–24.2% 19.4–24.8%
11–21 January 2021 Sifo 22.4% 21.7–23.0% 21.6–23.2% 21.4–23.4% 21.1–23.7%
29 December 2020–11 January 2021 Demoskop 23.2% 22.0–24.4% 21.7–24.8% 21.4–25.1% 20.9–25.7%
7 December 2020–10 January 2021 Novus
SVT		 21.8% 20.8–22.8% 20.5–23.2% 20.3–23.4% 19.8–23.9%
1–13 December 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 23.0% 21.6–24.4% 21.3–24.8% 20.9–25.2% 20.3–25.9%
30 November–10 December 2020 Sifo 21.7% 21.1–22.3% 20.9–22.5% 20.7–22.6% 20.5–22.9%
9 November–6 December 2020 Novus
SVT		 21.7% 20.9–22.6% 20.6–22.8% 20.4–23.0% 20.0–23.5%
30 November–3 December 2020 SKOP 21.8% 20.2–23.6% 19.8–24.1% 19.4–24.5% 18.6–25.3%
26 November–2 December 2020 Demoskop 23.2% 22.1–24.3% 21.7–24.7% 21.5–25.0% 21.0–25.5%
2–26 November 2020 SCB 22.1% 21.3–22.9% 21.1–23.1% 20.9–23.3% 20.5–23.7%
10–22 November 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 21.0% 19.7–22.4% 19.3–22.8% 19.0–23.2% 18.4–23.8%
2–11 November 2020 Sifo 20.8% 19.5–22.2% 19.2–22.6% 18.9–22.9% 18.3–23.6%
12 October–8 November 2020 Novus
SVT		 22.0% 21.1–22.9% 20.9–23.1% 20.7–23.4% 20.3–23.8%
27 October–4 November 2020 Demoskop 22.4% 21.2–23.5% 20.9–23.9% 20.7–24.2% 20.1–24.7%
23–26 October 2020 SKOP 21.1% 19.5–22.8% 19.1–23.3% 18.7–23.7% 17.9–24.6%
13–25 October 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 21.0% 19.7–22.4% 19.3–22.8% 19.0–23.2% 18.4–23.8%
5–15 October 2020 Sifo 20.6% 20.0–21.2% 19.8–21.4% 19.7–21.6% 19.4–21.9%
14 September–11 October 2020 Novus
SVT		 20.7% 19.9–21.6% 19.6–21.8% 19.4–22.0% 19.1–22.4%
1–7 October 2020 Demoskop 21.1% 20.1–22.1% 19.8–22.4% 19.6–22.7% 19.1–23.2%
8–21 September 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 20.0% 18.7–21.4% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.1% 17.5–22.7%
7–17 September 2020 Sifo 20.6% 19.9–21.4% 19.7–21.6% 19.5–21.7% 19.2–22.1%
24 August–13 September 2020 Novus
SVT		 21.2% 20.3–22.2% 20.0–22.4% 19.8–22.7% 19.3–23.1%
25 August–1 September 2020 Demoskop 22.2% 21.1–23.3% 20.8–23.6% 20.6–23.9% 20.1–24.5%
3–23 August 2020 Novus
SVT		 21.2% 20.3–22.1% 20.1–22.3% 19.9–22.5% 19.5–22.9%
11–23 August 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 20.0% 18.7–21.4% 18.4–21.8% 18.0–22.1% 17.5–22.8%
10–20 August 2020 Sifo 20.3% 19.6–21.0% 19.4–21.2% 19.3–21.4% 18.9–21.7%
28 July–4 August 2020 Demoskop 21.6% 20.6–22.6% 20.3–22.9% 20.1–23.2% 19.6–23.7%
23–28 July 2020 SKOP 21.1% 19.5–22.8% 19.1–23.3% 18.7–23.7% 17.9–24.6%
30 June–7 July 2020 Demoskop 20.8% 19.7–21.9% 19.4–22.3% 19.2–22.5% 18.7–23.1%
25 May–21 June 2020 Novus
SVT		 20.7% 19.9–21.6% 19.6–21.8% 19.4–22.0% 19.1–22.5%
12–15 June 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.5–18.7% 15.2–19.0% 14.6–19.6%
1–11 June 2020 Sifo 19.5% 18.9–20.1% 18.8–20.3% 18.6–20.4% 18.4–20.7%
26 May–3 June 2020 Demoskop 20.9% 19.9–22.0% 19.6–22.3% 19.3–22.6% 18.8–23.1%
31 May–2 June 2020 SKOP 20.3% 18.7–22.0% 18.3–22.5% 17.9–22.9% 17.2–23.7%
29 April–27 May 2020 SCB 20.1% 19.6–20.7% 19.4–20.8% 19.3–20.9% 19.0–21.2%
27 April–24 May 2020 Novus
SVT		 19.2% 18.4–20.0% 18.2–20.3% 18.0–20.5% 17.6–20.9%
12–24 May 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 19.8% 18.5–21.2% 18.2–21.6% 17.9–21.9% 17.3–22.5%
4–14 May 2020 Sifo 18.5% 18.0–19.1% 17.8–19.3% 17.7–19.5% 17.4–19.8%
30 April–8 May 2020 SKOP 20.4% 18.9–22.1% 18.4–22.6% 18.0–23.0% 17.3–23.8%
28 April–5 May 2020 Demoskop 20.7% 19.6–21.8% 19.3–22.1% 19.1–22.4% 18.6–22.9%
14–26 April 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.5–19.7% 16.2–20.0% 15.6–20.7%
30 March–19 April 2020 Novus
SVT		 18.7% 17.9–19.5% 17.7–19.8% 17.5–20.0% 17.1–20.4%
30 March–8 April 2020 Sifo 19.2% 18.6–19.8% 18.4–20.0% 18.3–20.2% 18.0–20.5%
25 March–1 April 2020 Demoskop 19.2% 18.2–20.3% 17.9–20.6% 17.7–20.8% 17.2–21.3%
24 February–22 March 2020 Novus
SVT		 18.0% 17.2–18.8% 17.0–19.1% 16.8–19.3% 16.4–19.7%
10–20 March 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 19.0% 17.8–20.3% 17.4–20.7% 17.1–21.0% 16.6–21.7%
2–12 March 2020 Sifo 18.0% 17.4–18.6% 17.3–18.7% 17.1–18.9% 16.9–19.1%
25 February–3 March 2020 Demoskop 19.5% 18.5–20.6% 18.2–20.9% 18.0–21.2% 17.5–21.7%
11–23 February 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.4–19.7% 16.1–20.0% 15.6–20.6%
27 January–16 February 2020 Novus
SVT		 18.0% 17.1–18.9% 16.9–19.2% 16.7–19.4% 16.3–19.9%
3–13 February 2020 Sifo 17.5% 16.9–18.0% 16.8–18.2% 16.7–18.3% 16.4–18.6%
25 January–5 February 2020 Demoskop 18.9% 17.8–20.0% 17.5–20.3% 17.3–20.6% 16.8–21.2%
14–27 January 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 16.8% 15.6–18.1% 15.3–18.5% 15.0–18.8% 14.5–19.4%
7–26 January 2020 Novus
SVT		 18.3% 17.6–19.1% 17.4–19.3% 17.2–19.5% 16.8–19.9%
14–24 January 2020 SKOP 17.4% 16.0–19.1% 15.6–19.5% 15.2–19.9% 14.5–20.7%
6–16 January 2020 Sifo 17.5% 16.9–18.1% 16.8–18.2% 16.7–18.4% 16.4–18.6%
30 December 2019–7 January 2020 Demoskop 18.2% 17.1–19.3% 16.8–19.6% 16.6–19.9% 16.1–20.4%
18 November–15 December 2019 Novus
SVT		 17.9% 17.1–18.7% 16.9–18.9% 16.7–19.1% 16.4–19.5%
3–15 December 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 16.0% 14.9–17.3% 14.6–17.6% 14.3–17.9% 13.8–18.5%
2–12 December 2019 Sifo 17.2% 16.7–17.8% 16.5–17.9% 16.4–18.0% 16.2–18.3%
26 November–4 December 2019 Demoskop 17.5% 16.5–18.6% 16.2–18.9% 15.9–19.2% 15.4–19.8%
28 October–26 November 2019 SCB 18.3% 17.6–19.1% 17.4–19.3% 17.2–19.4% 16.9–19.8%
11–24 November 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 16.8% 15.7–18.1% 15.3–18.5% 15.0–18.8% 14.5–19.4%
21 October–17 November 2019 Novus
SVT		 18.3% 17.5–19.1% 17.3–19.4% 17.1–19.6% 16.7–20.0%
4–14 November 2019 Sifo 17.0% 16.4–17.5% 16.3–17.7% 16.2–17.8% 15.9–18.1%
4–13 November 2019 Demoskop 17.8% 16.8–18.9% 16.5–19.3% 16.2–19.6% 15.7–20.1%
8–21 October 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 16.0% 14.9–17.2% 14.5–17.6% 14.3–17.9% 13.7–18.5%
23 September–20 October 2019 Novus
SVT		 19.5% 18.7–20.3% 18.4–20.6% 18.2–20.8% 17.8–21.2%
7–17 October 2019 Sifo 18.1% 17.5–18.7% 17.4–18.8% 17.3–19.0% 17.0–19.3%
8–14 October 2019 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 19.3% 18.2–20.4% 17.9–20.7% 17.6–21.0% 17.1–21.6%
24 September–1 October 2019 Demoskop 19.5% 18.3–20.8% 17.9–21.2% 17.6–21.5% 17.0–22.1%
20–25 September 2019 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 19.1% 18.0–20.2% 17.7–20.5% 17.4–20.8% 16.9–21.4%
10–23 September 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 19.0% 17.8–20.3% 17.4–20.7% 17.1–21.0% 16.5–21.7%
26 August–22 September 2019 Novus
SVT		 20.4% 19.5–21.2% 19.3–21.5% 19.1–21.7% 18.7–22.1%
2–12 September 2019 Sifo 18.9% 18.4–19.4% 18.2–19.6% 18.1–19.7% 17.8–20.0%
27 August–3 September 2019 Demoskop 19.5% 18.3–20.8% 17.9–21.2% 17.6–21.5% 17.1–22.1%
22–28 August 2019 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 18.3% 17.2–19.4% 16.9–19.7% 16.6–20.0% 16.1–20.6%
5–25 August 2019 Novus
SVT		 18.5% 17.6–19.5% 17.3–19.8% 17.1–20.0% 16.6–20.5%
13–25 August 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.5–18.7% 15.2–19.0% 14.7–19.6%
6–15 August 2019 Sifo 19.1% 18.4–19.7% 18.3–19.9% 18.1–20.1% 17.8–20.4%
1–8 August 2019 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 19.6% 18.5–20.8% 18.2–21.1% 18.0–21.4% 17.4–21.9%
25 June–16 July 2019 SKOP 17.0% 15.6–18.5% 15.2–19.0% 14.8–19.4% 14.2–20.2%
24 June–1 July 2019 Demoskop 17.6% 16.4–18.9% 16.1–19.2% 15.8–19.5% 15.3–20.2%
17–24 June 2019 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 19.7% 18.6–20.9% 18.3–21.2% 18.0–21.5% 17.5–22.0%
3–23 June 2019 Novus
SVT		 18.8% 17.9–19.8% 17.6–20.1% 17.4–20.3% 16.9–20.8%
4–18 June 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 17.0% 15.8–18.2% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–18.9% 14.7–19.5%
3–13 June 2019 Sifo 18.4% 17.9–18.9% 17.7–19.1% 17.6–19.2% 17.4–19.5%
27 May–3 June 2019 Demoskop
Expressen		 18.2% 17.0–19.4% 16.6–19.8% 16.3–20.1% 15.8–20.7%
6 May–2 June 2019 Novus
SVT		 17.7% 16.9–18.5% 16.7–18.8% 16.5–19.0% 16.1–19.4%
29 April–28 May 2019 SCB 16.0% 15.5–16.5% 15.4–16.7% 15.3–16.8% 15.0–17.0%
21–28 May 2019 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 18.2% 17.2–19.3% 16.9–19.6% 16.6–19.9% 16.1–20.5%
6–21 May 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.6% 14.0–18.1%
6–16 May 2019 Sifo 15.9% 15.4–16.4% 15.3–16.5% 15.2–16.7% 15.0–16.9%
10–15 May 2019 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 13.5% 12.7–14.4% 12.5–14.6% 12.3–14.8% 11.9–15.2%
29 April–7 May 2019 Demoskop
Expressen		 15.7% 14.6–16.9% 14.3–17.3% 14.0–17.6% 13.5–18.2%
8 April–5 May 2019 Novus
SVT		 18.0% 17.2–18.9% 16.9–19.1% 16.8–19.3% 16.4–19.8%
22–29 April 2019 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 15.7% 14.7–16.7% 14.4–17.0% 14.2–17.3% 13.7–17.8%
9–22 April 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 16.2% 15.0–17.4% 14.6–17.8% 14.4–18.1% 13.8–18.7%
1–11 April 2019 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 16.0% 15.5–16.5% 15.3–16.7% 15.2–16.8% 15.0–17.1%
26 March–3 April 2019 Demoskop
Expressen		 16.6% 15.4–17.8% 15.1–18.2% 14.8–18.5% 14.3–19.1%
4–31 March 2019 Novus
SVT		 17.5% 16.7–18.3% 16.5–18.6% 16.3–18.8% 15.9–19.2%
23–28 March 2019 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 16.5% 15.7–17.4% 15.4–17.7% 15.2–17.9% 14.8–18.3%
7–27 March 2019 SKOP 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.4–19.7% 16.2–20.0% 15.6–20.7%
12–25 March 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.4–19.7% 16.1–20.0% 15.6–20.6%
3–14 March 2019 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 17.5% 17.0–18.0% 16.8–18.2% 16.7–18.3% 16.5–18.5%
26 February–5 March 2019 Demoskop
Expressen		 18.4% 17.2–19.7% 16.8–20.0% 16.6–20.3% 16.0–21.0%
4 February–3 March 2019 Novus
SVT		 18.3% 17.5–19.1% 17.3–19.4% 17.1–19.6% 16.7–20.0%
7–20 February 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.5–18.7% 15.2–19.0% 14.6–19.6%
11–18 February 2019 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 17.6% 16.6–18.7% 16.3–19.1% 16.1–19.3% 15.6–19.9%
4–14 February 2019 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 17.2% 16.7–17.8% 16.5–17.9% 16.4–18.0% 16.1–18.3%
29 January–5 February 2019 Demoskop
Expressen		 19.5% 18.3–20.8% 17.9–21.2% 17.6–21.5% 17.1–22.2%
14 January–3 February 2019 Novus
SVT		 18.3% 17.4–19.2% 17.2–19.5% 16.9–19.7% 16.5–20.2%
16–23 January 2019 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 19.0% 17.9–20.1% 17.6–20.5% 17.4–20.7% 16.9–21.3%
10–20 January 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.5–19.7% 16.2–20.0% 15.6–20.6%
14–17 January 2019 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 19.5% 18.7–20.3% 18.5–20.5% 18.3–20.7% 18.0–21.1%
3–17 January 2019 SKOP 18.1% 16.7–19.6% 16.3–20.1% 15.9–20.5% 15.3–21.2%
2–13 January 2019 Novus
SVT		 18.9% 17.9–20.0% 17.6–20.3% 17.4–20.6% 16.9–21.1%
2–8 January 2019 Demoskop
Expressen		 17.1% 15.9–18.4% 15.6–18.7% 15.3–19.0% 14.8–19.6%
19–26 December 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 18.3% 17.3–19.3% 17.0–19.6% 16.7–19.9% 16.3–20.4%
12 November–16 December 2018 Novus
SVT		 18.3% 17.6–19.0% 17.5–19.2% 17.3–19.4% 17.0–19.7%
5–16 December 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.5–19.7% 16.2–20.0% 15.6–20.7%
3–13 December 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 19.0% 18.5–19.6% 18.3–19.7% 18.2–19.8% 17.9–20.1%
4–12 December 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 18.5% 17.5–19.6% 17.2–19.9% 16.9–20.2% 16.5–20.7%
27 November–4 December 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 18.9% 17.7–20.2% 17.3–20.5% 17.0–20.9% 16.5–21.5%
29 October–27 November 2018 SCB 19.2% 18.5–20.0% 18.3–20.2% 18.1–20.4% 17.8–20.8%
8–19 November 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 18.2% 17.0–19.5% 16.6–19.9% 16.4–20.2% 15.8–20.9%
14–19 November 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 19.1% 18.1–20.2% 17.8–20.5% 17.6–20.8% 17.1–21.3%
5–15 November 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 18.1% 17.6–18.6% 17.4–18.8% 17.3–18.9% 17.1–19.1%
15 October–11 November 2018 Novus
SVT		 19.2% 18.5–19.9% 18.3–20.1% 18.1–20.3% 17.8–20.7%
26 October–6 November 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 18.2% 17.2–19.3% 16.9–19.6% 16.6–19.9% 16.2–20.4%
30 October–6 November 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 18.3% 17.1–19.5% 16.7–19.9% 16.4–20.2% 15.9–20.9%
16–24 October 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 19.1% 17.8–20.4% 17.5–20.8% 17.2–21.1% 16.6–21.8%
8–18 October 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 18.8% 18.2–19.3% 18.1–19.5% 18.0–19.6% 17.7–19.9%
1–8 October 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 19.3% 18.2–20.6% 17.8–21.0% 17.6–21.3% 17.0–21.9%
1–4 October 2018 Novus
SVT		 19.7% 18.6–20.8% 18.3–21.1% 18.1–21.4% 17.6–21.9%
24 September–2 October 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 19.2% 18.7–19.8% 18.5–20.0% 18.4–20.1% 18.1–20.4%
25 September–2 October 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 18.8% 17.6–20.1% 17.3–20.5% 17.0–20.8% 16.4–21.4%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Moderata samlingspartiet.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12.5–13.5% 0% 100%  
13.5–14.5% 0.6% 100%  
14.5–15.5% 8% 99.4%  
15.5–16.5% 23% 92%  
16.5–17.5% 25% 68% Median
17.5–18.5% 23% 44%  
18.5–19.5% 16% 21%  
19.5–20.5% 4% 5% Last Result
20.5–21.5% 0.4% 0.4%  
21.5–22.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 70 seats (General Election of 9 September 2018)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 61 55–68 54–69 53–71 51–73
6–9 September 2022 SKOP 58 53–61 52–62 52–63 50–65
6–9 September 2022 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 65 61–70 60–71 59–72 57–75
1–9 September 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 66 62–69 62–71 60–72 59–74
6–8 September 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 57 54–60 53–62 52–63 50–64
5–8 September 2022 SKOP 53 49–57 49–59 48–60 46–62
6–8 September 2022 Novus
SVT		 61 56–65 55–67 54–68 52–70
5–7 September 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		          
4–7 September 2022 SKOP          
5–7 September 2022 Novus
SVT		          
4–6 September 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 60 56–63 55–65 54–66 53–67
3–6 September 2022 SKOP 62 58–67 56–68 55–69 53–72
4–6 September 2022 Novus
SVT		 61 57–66 56–67 54–68 53–71
1–6 September 2022 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 64 61–70 60–71 59–72 56–74
3–5 September 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 65 62–69 61–71 60–72 58–74
2–5 September 2022 SKOP 64 59–69 58–70 56–72 53–75
3–5 September 2022 Novus
SVT		 63 59–69 57–70 56–72 55–74
2–4 September 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 63 58–66 58–67 56–69 54–70
1 August–4 September 2022 SKOP 61 56–66 55–68 54–70 52–73
2–4 September 2022 Novus
SVT		 62 57–67 56–68 55–69 53–72
31 August–4 September 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 65 61–69 60–71 59–72 57–74
1–3 September 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 64 60–69 59–70 58–70 56–73
31 August–3 September 2022 SKOP          
1–3 September 2022 Novus
SVT		          
31 August–2 September 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 61 58–65 57–66 56–67 54–70
30 August–2 September 2022 SKOP          
31 August–2 September 2022 Novus
SVT		          
30 August–1 September 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		          
29 August–1 September 2022 SKOP          
30 August–1 September 2022 Novus
SVT		          
29–31 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 57 53–61 52–62 51–63 50–65
28–31 August 2022 SKOP 57 52–62 50–63 49–64 47–67
29–31 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 66 61–72 60–73 59–74 57–77
28–30 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		          
27–30 August 2022 SKOP          
28–30 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 65 60–69 59–70 58–71 56–74
26–30 August 2022 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 60 55–65 54–66 52–67 50–70
27–29 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 58 54–62 53–63 52–64 50–65
26–29 August 2022 SKOP          
27–29 August 2022 Novus
SVT		          
21–29 August 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 63 60–68 59–69 58–70 56–72
26–28 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 64 60–68 59–69 58–70 56–72
24–28 August 2022 SKOP 65 61–70 59–71 58–72 55–75
26–28 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 56 52–61 51–62 50–64 48–66
25–27 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		          
23–27 August 2022 SKOP          
25–27 August 2022 Novus
SVT		          
24–26 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		          
22–26 August 2022 SKOP          
24–26 August 2022 Novus
SVT		          
23–25 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 62 58–66 57–67 57–68 55–69
21–25 August 2022 SKOP 64 60–69 59–71 58–72 55–75
23–25 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 63 58–67 57–68 56–70 54–72
22–24 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 66 62–69 61–70 60–71 58–73
20–24 August 2022 SKOP 63 58–69 57–70 56–71 54–74
22–24 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 63 58–68 58–69 56–70 54–73
16–24 August 2022 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 59 55–64 53–65 53–66 51–69
21–23 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 66 63–71 62–72 61–73 59–75
19–23 August 2022 SKOP 66 61–73 60–74 59–75 56–78
21–23 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 62 57–66 56–68 55–69 53–71
20–22 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 62 58–66 58–67 57–68 55–70
20–22 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 62 57–66 57–67 55–68 53–70
19–21 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		          
18–21 August 2022 SKOP 61 57–68 56–69 55–70 52–73
19–21 August 2022 Novus
SVT		          
16–21 August 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 71 67–76 66–77 65–78 63–80
18–20 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 62 57–67 56–68 56–69 54–71
17–19 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 64 60–68 59–69 58–71 56–73
16–18 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 63 59–68 58–68 56–69 55–72
15–17 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 65 61–69 60–70 59–71 57–73
14–16 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 68 64–73 63–74 62–75 61–76
6–16 August 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 70 67–74 66–75 65–76 63–79
13–15 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 69 66–73 64–75 63–76 62–78
12–14 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 68 65–72 63–74 63–75 61–77
8–14 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 70 65–74 64–75 63–76 62–79
11–13 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 67 63–71 62–73 61–74 59–77
10–12 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 69 64–74 63–75 62–76 60–78
9–11 August 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 74 70–79 68–80 67–81 65–84
1–7 August 2022 Novus
SVT		 66 62–70 61–71 60–72 58–74
24 July–2 August 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 71 68–75 67–76 66–77 64–79
8–11 July 2022 SKOP 66 62–73 60–74 58–75 55–81
22–30 June 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 74 70–78 69–80 68–81 67–84
6–26 June 2022 Novus
SVT		 72 68–76 67–77 67–78 65–79
7–19 June 2022 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 74 69–78 68–79 66–81 64–83
6–16 June 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 71 69–73 68–74 68–75 67–76
31 May–9 June 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 80 75–86 73–87 73–90 71–92
9 May–5 June 2022 Novus
SVT		 83 79–86 78–86 77–87 75–89
28 April–25 May 2022 SCB 81 79–83 79–84 78–84 77–85
10–22 May 2022 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 84 79–90 78–91 76–93 74–96
2–12 May 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 79 76–82 76–82 75–83 74–84
4–10 May 2022 Infostat 80 76–86 74–87 72–89 70–91
26 April–4 May 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 86 81–90 80–92 79–93 77–95
4 April–1 May 2022 Novus
SVT		 79 76–82 75–83 74–84 72–86
12–26 April 2022 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 82 77–88 74–89 74–90 71–93
11–21 April 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 80 77–82 77–82 76–83 75–84
6–14 April 2022 SKOP 75 70–82 68–83 67–85 64–88
29 March–5 April 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 85 81–89 80–91 78–92 76–95
7 March–3 April 2022 Novus
SVT		 80 78–84 77–85 76–85 74–87
15–27 March 2022 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 80 76–86 75–88 73–89 71–91
7–17 March 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 80 78–82 77–83 77–84 75–85
1–9 March 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 82 78–87 77–88 76–89 74–91
31 January–27 February 2022 Novus
SVT		 79 75–83 74–84 73–85 71–87
8–20 February 2022 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 79 75–85 74–86 72–87 70–89
7–17 February 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 79 76–81 75–82 75–83 73–84
11–14 February 2022 SKOP 72 66–79 64–80 63–82 60–86
1–8 February 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 82 79–86 78–87 76–88 75–90
3–30 January 2022 Novus
SVT		 78 74–81 73–82 72–82 71–84
11–24 January 2022 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 78 72–83 71–85 70–86 67–89
10–20 January 2022 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 79 77–82 76–83 76–84 74–86
28 December 2021–5 January 2022 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 83 79–87 78–88 77–89 74–91
6 December 2021–2 January 2022 Novus
SVT		 70 66–74 64–76 63–77 61–79
7–20 December 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 75 69–80 68–82 67–83 65–86
6–16 December 2021 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 75 73–78 72–78 72–79 71–80
30 November–8 December 2021 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 84 80–88 79–89 78–91 76–93
8 November–5 December 2021 Novus
SVT		 80 77–83 76–84 75–85 73–87
28 October–25 November 2021 SCB 85 81–87 81–87 80–88 79–90
9–22 November 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 78 73–83 72–85 71–86 69–88
8–18 November 2021 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 80 76–82 75–83 75–83 73–85
5–11 November 2021 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 89 84–93 83–94 82–96 80–97
4–31 October 2021 Novus
SVT		 84 80–88 79–90 78–90 77–93
12–25 October 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 73 68–79 66–81 65–82 63–85
15–17 October 2021 SKOP 83 76–91 74–92 73–94 70–99
4–14 October 2021 Sifo          
29 September–6 October 2021 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		          
30 August–3 October 2021 Novus
SVT		          
14–26 September 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		          
6–16 September 2021 Sifo          
3–11 September 2021 SKOP          
31 August–8 September 2021 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		          
2–29 August 2021 Novus
SVT		          
10–23 August 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		          
9–18 August 2021 Sifo          
2–5 August 2021 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 86 82–90 81–91 80–92 78–94
19–26 July 2021 Novus
SVT		 78 73–82 72–84 71–85 69–87
19–23 July 2021 SKOP 83 76–90 74–92 73–94 69–97
29 June–7 July 2021 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 82 78–86 76–87 75–88 73–89
23–28 June 2021 Demoskop
Aftonbladet		 83 78–88 77–89 76–90 74–92
21–27 June 2021 Novus
SVT		 81 77–86 75–87 75–88 73–90
8–20 June 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 82 77–87 76–89 75–90 72–93
7–17 June 2021 Sifo 84 81–86 81–87 80–88 79–89
3 May–6 June 2021 Novus
SVT		 82 79–86 79–87 78–88 76–90
26 May–2 June 2021 Demoskop 86 82–90 81–92 79–93 77–95
28 April–27 May 2021 SCB 84 80–87 80–87 79–88 78–89
11–23 May 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 81 76–87 74–89 73–90 71–94
3–13 May 2021 Sifo 81 78–84 77–85 76–85 75–86
28 April–5 May 2021 Demoskop 84 81–90 80–91 79–93 77–95
5 April–2 May 2021 Novus
SVT		 84 80–89 80–91 79–91 77–93
13–25 April 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 83 78–88 76–89 75–90 73–92
5–15 April 2021 Sifo 78 76–81 75–82 74–83 73–84
30 March–7 April 2021 Demoskop 86 82–91 81–92 80–93 77–95
1 March–4 April 2021 Novus
SVT		 83 80–87 79–89 78–90 77–92
9–21 March 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 83 77–88 75–89 72–92 70–95
1–11 March 2021 Sifo 84 82–87 81–88 80–89 79–91
26 February–3 March 2021 Demoskop 93 88–97 87–98 86–100 84–101
1–28 February 2021 Novus
SVT		 89 85–95 84–96 84–97 81–100
19–23 February 2021 SKOP 90 84–98 82–100 81–102 77–106
9–21 February 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 85 79–91 78–93 76–95 74–97
1–11 February 2021 Sifo 89 86–92 85–93 85–94 82–96
26 January–3 February 2021 Demoskop 87 83–92 82–93 81–95 78–97
11–31 January 2021 Novus
SVT		 85 81–90 80–91 79–92 77–94
13–25 January 2021 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 83 76–88 75–90 74–91 72–94
11–21 January 2021 Sifo 85 82–87 81–88 80–89 79–90
29 December 2020–11 January 2021 Demoskop 85 80–89 79–90 78–92 76–94
7 December 2020–10 January 2021 Novus
SVT		 81 77–85 76–87 74–88 72–91
1–13 December 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 84 79–87 77–89 75–91 72–94
30 November–10 December 2020 Sifo 82 79–85 78–85 77–86 76–87
9 November–6 December 2020 Novus
SVT		 80 76–84 76–86 75–86 74–89
30 November–3 December 2020 SKOP 81 73–88 72–89 71–91 68–94
26 November–2 December 2020 Demoskop 86 82–91 81–93 80–94 78–96
2–26 November 2020 SCB 81 78–86 77–86 77–87 75–88
10–22 November 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 78 72–83 71–85 70–86 67–89
2–11 November 2020 Sifo 77 71–82 70–84 69–85 66–88
12 October–8 November 2020 Novus
SVT		 82 78–86 77–87 76–89 74–89
27 October–4 November 2020 Demoskop 84 80–89 79–90 77–92 76–94
23–26 October 2020 SKOP 78 73–85 71–87 69–89 67–92
13–25 October 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 75 71–81 70–83 68–83 66–86
5–15 October 2020 Sifo 76 74–78 73–80 72–80 71–82
14 September–11 October 2020 Novus
SVT		 77 72–80 71–80 71–81 69–82
1–7 October 2020 Demoskop 80 76–84 75–85 74–86 71–88
8–21 September 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 74 68–80 67–81 66–82 64–85
7–17 September 2020 Sifo 78 74–81 73–82 73–83 70–84
24 August–13 September 2020 Novus
SVT		 78 74–82 73–83 73–85 71–87
25 August–1 September 2020 Demoskop 84 80–89 78–89 78–90 76–93
3–23 August 2020 Novus
SVT		 80 76–83 74–84 73–85 72–87
11–23 August 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 75 69–80 68–82 67–83 64–86
10–20 August 2020 Sifo 75 72–78 71–79 70–80 68–82
28 July–4 August 2020 Demoskop 83 79–87 78–88 77–89 74–91
23–28 July 2020 SKOP 78 72–85 70–87 69–89 66–93
30 June–7 July 2020 Demoskop 77 73–83 72–84 70–85 69–87
25 May–21 June 2020 Novus
SVT		 78 75–81 73–82 73–83 71–84
12–15 June 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 64 59–69 57–70 56–71 54–74
1–11 June 2020 Sifo 75 72–76 71–77 71–78 69–79
26 May–3 June 2020 Demoskop 78 73–82 72–82 70–84 69–86
31 May–2 June 2020 SKOP 75 69–81 67–83 66–85 62–88
29 April–27 May 2020 SCB 74 72–77 71–78 71–79 70–80
27 April–24 May 2020 Novus
SVT		 71 68–75 67–75 66–76 64–79
12–24 May 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 73 68–78 66–80 66–82 63–84
4–14 May 2020 Sifo 70 67–73 66–73 65–74 64–75
30 April–8 May 2020 SKOP 75 69–82 67–83 66–85 63–89
28 April–5 May 2020 Demoskop 78 73–81 72–81 71–83 69–85
14–26 April 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 66 61–72 60–74 59–75 56–77
30 March–19 April 2020 Novus
SVT		 70 67–73 66–74 64–75 63–77
30 March–8 April 2020 Sifo 73 69–75 68–76 68–76 66–78
25 March–1 April 2020 Demoskop 70 66–74 65–76 64–77 63–80
24 February–22 March 2020 Novus
SVT		 66 62–69 61–70 60–71 59–73
10–20 March 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 67 64–72 62–73 61–75 58–76
2–12 March 2020 Sifo 66 63–69 62–69 61–71 60–72
25 February–3 March 2020 Demoskop 72 68–77 67–78 66–80 64–81
11–23 February 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 64 59–70 58–71 57–72 55–75
27 January–16 February 2020 Novus
SVT		 66 61–69 61–71 59–71 58–74
3–13 February 2020 Sifo 62 60–65 60–66 59–67 58–68
25 January–5 February 2020 Demoskop 70 66–75 65–77 63–78 62–80
14–27 January 2020 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 61 57–67 55–69 54–70 52–73
7–26 January 2020 Novus
SVT		 67 64–70 63–71 63–72 61–73
14–24 January 2020 SKOP 64 58–70 56–72 55–74 52–77
6–16 January 2020 Sifo 64 61–66 60–67 60–68 59–68
30 December 2019–7 January 2020 Demoskop 67 63–70 62–71 61–73 59–74
18 November–15 December 2019 Novus
SVT		 66 63–68 62–69 61–70 59–72
3–15 December 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 56 52–61 51–63 50–63 48–65
2–12 December 2019 Sifo 62 59–64 59–66 58–66 57–67
26 November–4 December 2019 Demoskop 63 59–68 58–70 57–71 55–73
28 October–26 November 2019 SCB 66 63–69 62–70 61–71 60–72
11–24 November 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 63 58–67 56–68 55–69 53–71
21 October–17 November 2019 Novus
SVT		 67 64–70 63–71 63–72 61–74
4–14 November 2019 Sifo 63 60–64 60–65 59–66 58–67
4–13 November 2019 Demoskop 65 61–70 60–71 59–72 57–74
8–21 October 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 58 54–62 52–64 51–65 49–67
23 September–20 October 2019 Novus
SVT		 71 68–75 67–75 66–76 64–78
7–17 October 2019 Sifo 65 63–68 62–69 62–69 60–71
8–14 October 2019 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 72 67–76 66–77 65–78 63–81
24 September–1 October 2019 Demoskop 71 66–76 65–77 63–79 61–81
20–25 September 2019 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 71 67–76 65–77 64–78 62–81
10–23 September 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 67 62–72 61–73 60–74 58–77
26 August–22 September 2019 Novus
SVT		 75 71–78 70–79 69–80 68–82
2–12 September 2019 Sifo 67 65–70 65–71 64–71 63–73
27 August–3 September 2019 Demoskop 70 65–74 64–76 63–77 61–80
22–28 August 2019 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 67 62–72 61–73 60–74 58–76
5–25 August 2019 Novus
SVT		 68 64–72 63–73 62–74 60–76
13–25 August 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 60 56–65 55–66 54–67 52–70
6–15 August 2019 Sifo 70 67–72 66–73 65–73 64–75
1–8 August 2019 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 74 69–79 68–79 66–81 64–83
25 June–16 July 2019 SKOP 61 54–66 53–68 52–70 50–72
24 June–1 July 2019 Demoskop 64 59–69 58–70 57–71 55–74
17–24 June 2019 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 72 68–77 67–78 65–80 63–82
3–23 June 2019 Novus
SVT		 68 65–72 64–73 63–74 61–76
4–18 June 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 60 56–65 55–66 54–67 52–69
3–13 June 2019 Sifo 67 65–70 65–70 64–71 63–71
27 May–3 June 2019 Demoskop
Expressen		 66 61–71 60–72 58–74 56–76
6 May–2 June 2019 Novus
SVT		 63 60–67 59–68 59–69 57–71
29 April–28 May 2019 SCB 59 57–61 56–61 56–62 54–62
21–28 May 2019 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 68 63–72 62–73 61–74 59–77
6–21 May 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 58 54–62 53–63 52–65 51–66
6–16 May 2019 Sifo 58 56–60 55–61 55–61 54–62
10–15 May 2019 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 49 46–53 45–54 44–54 43–57
29 April–7 May 2019 Demoskop
Expressen		 58 54–62 52–64 51–65 49–68
8 April–5 May 2019 Novus
SVT		 66 63–69 62–70 61–71 59–73
22–29 April 2019 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 58 53–62 52–64 51–65 50–67
9–22 April 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 59 54–64 53–66 51–67 49–70
1–11 April 2019 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 59 57–60 56–61 56–62 55–63
26 March–3 April 2019 Demoskop
Expressen		 60 56–66 55–67 54–68 52–71
4–31 March 2019 Novus
SVT		 66 63–70 62–71 61–72 59–73
23–28 March 2019 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 61 57–64 56–65 56–67 54–68
7–27 March 2019 SKOP 66 61–71 60–72 59–73 57–76
12–25 March 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 66 60–72 59–72 58–74 56–77
3–14 March 2019 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 66 64–68 63–69 62–70 61–70
26 February–5 March 2019 Demoskop
Expressen		 68 63–73 62–75 61–76 59–79
4 February–3 March 2019 Novus
SVT		 68 65–72 64–73 63–74 61–76
7–20 February 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 62 57–67 56–69 55–70 53–73
11–18 February 2019 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 66 62–70 61–71 60–72 58–74
4–14 February 2019 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 63 60–65 60–66 59–67 58–68
29 January–5 February 2019 Demoskop
Expressen		 74 69–78 68–80 66–81 64–83
14 January–3 February 2019 Novus
SVT		 69 65–72 64–74 63–74 62–76
16–23 January 2019 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 71 67–75 65–76 64–78 62–80
10–20 January 2019 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 65 60–70 59–72 58–73 56–75
14–17 January 2019 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 73 69–77 68–77 67–78 65–80
3–17 January 2019 SKOP 65 61–70 59–72 57–74 55–77
2–13 January 2019 Novus
SVT		 71 66–75 65–76 64–77 62–79
2–8 January 2019 Demoskop
Expressen		 62 58–68 57–69 55–70 54–73
19–26 December 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 68 64–72 62–73 61–74 60–76
12 November–16 December 2018 Novus
SVT		 67 64–71 63–72 62–73 61–74
5–16 December 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 66 60–70 59–73 58–74 56–77
3–13 December 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 69 66–73 65–74 64–74 64–76
4–12 December 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 70 65–74 64–75 63–76 61–79
27 November–4 December 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 68 63–74 62–76 61–77 59–81
29 October–27 November 2018 SCB 69 66–73 65–74 64–75 63–78
8–19 November 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 66 61–71 59–72 58–74 56–76
14–19 November 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 72 67–77 66–78 65–79 63–82
5–15 November 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 65 62–67 62–68 61–69 61–70
15 October–11 November 2018 Novus
SVT		 71 68–73 66–75 65–76 64–77
26 October–6 November 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 67 63–73 62–74 61–76 59–77
30 October–6 November 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 67 62–72 60–74 59–75 57–78
16–24 October 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 68 63–72 61–74 60–76 58–78
8–18 October 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 67 65–70 64–70 64–71 63–72
1–8 October 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 69 65–74 64–75 63–77 60–80
1–4 October 2018 Novus
SVT		 70 66–74 65–76 64–77 62–80
24 September–2 October 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 68 66–71 66–72 65–72 64–73
25 September–2 October 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 68 63–73 62–75 61–77 59–79

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Moderata samlingspartiet.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.5% 99.6%  
52 2% 99.2%  
53 2% 98%  
54 4% 96%  
55 4% 91%  
56 6% 87%  
57 8% 81%  
58 8% 74%  
59 8% 66%  
60 5% 58%  
61 5% 53% Median
62 6% 48%  
63 7% 42%  
64 5% 35%  
65 8% 31%  
66 4% 23%  
67 8% 19%  
68 3% 11%  
69 4% 8%  
70 2% 4% Last Result
71 1.3% 3%  
72 0.7% 1.4%  
73 0.3% 0.7%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%