Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 24 September–2 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 28.5% 27.9–29.2% 27.7–29.4% 27.5–29.5% 27.3–29.8%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 19.2% 18.7–19.8% 18.5–20.0% 18.4–20.1% 18.1–20.4%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 18.3% 17.8–18.9% 17.6–19.0% 17.5–19.2% 17.2–19.4%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 8.8% 8.4–9.2% 8.3–9.3% 8.2–9.4% 8.0–9.6%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 7.8% 7.4–8.2% 7.3–8.3% 7.2–8.4% 7.1–8.6%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 6.4% 6.1–6.8% 6.0–6.9% 5.9–7.0% 5.7–7.1%
Liberalerna 5.5% 5.3% 5.0–5.6% 4.9–5.7% 4.8–5.8% 4.7–6.0%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 4.3% 4.0–4.6% 3.9–4.7% 3.9–4.8% 3.7–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 101 99–104 99–106 98–107 97–108
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 68 66–71 66–72 65–72 64–73
Sverigedemokraterna 62 65 63–67 62–68 62–69 61–71
Centerpartiet 31 31 30–33 29–33 29–34 28–34
Vänsterpartiet 28 28 26–29 26–30 26–30 25–31
Kristdemokraterna 22 23 22–24 21–24 21–25 20–25
Liberalerna 20 19 18–20 17–20 17–21 17–21
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 15 0–16 0–17 0–17 0–17

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.4% 99.9%  
97 1.2% 99.6%  
98 3% 98%  
99 11% 95%  
100 17% 85% Last Result
101 18% 68% Median
102 18% 50%  
103 15% 32%  
104 7% 17%  
105 3% 9%  
106 2% 6%  
107 4% 4%  
108 0.4% 0.5%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 2% 99.5%  
66 15% 97%  
67 23% 82%  
68 31% 60% Median
69 13% 29%  
70 5% 16% Last Result
71 5% 11%  
72 5% 6%  
73 0.9% 1.1%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 1.0% 99.8%  
62 5% 98.7% Last Result
63 12% 94%  
64 23% 81%  
65 19% 58% Median
66 18% 40%  
67 12% 21%  
68 5% 9%  
69 3% 4%  
70 0.4% 0.9%  
71 0.5% 0.5%  
72 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.6% 100%  
29 5% 99.3%  
30 18% 94%  
31 35% 75% Last Result, Median
32 24% 40%  
33 13% 16%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.4% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 2% 99.9%  
26 15% 98%  
27 27% 83%  
28 27% 56% Last Result, Median
29 22% 29%  
30 6% 7%  
31 0.9% 1.0%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.6% 100%  
21 7% 99.4%  
22 29% 92% Last Result
23 47% 63% Median
24 13% 16%  
25 3% 3%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 8% 99.6%  
18 34% 91%  
19 37% 58% Median
20 18% 21% Last Result
21 3% 3%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0% 90%  
4 0% 90%  
5 0% 90%  
6 0% 90%  
7 0% 90%  
8 0% 90%  
9 0% 90%  
10 0% 90%  
11 0% 90%  
12 0% 90%  
13 0% 90%  
14 11% 90%  
15 47% 79% Median
16 27% 32% Last Result
17 5% 5%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 200 100% 198–206 197–209 196–211 195–212
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 169 9% 166–174 166–177 165–179 164–179
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna 154 156 0% 152–160 152–162 151–163 150–165
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 144 0% 138–147 135–147 133–148 132–149
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 143 140 0% 138–145 137–146 137–147 136–150
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 132 133 0% 130–137 130–139 129–140 128–141
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 129 0% 127–133 126–135 125–136 124–136
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 123 122 0% 119–126 119–127 118–128 117–130
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 118 0% 115–122 115–123 114–124 114–126
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 116 0% 110–119 106–119 105–120 103–121
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 99 0% 97–102 97–104 96–104 95–106

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
194 0.3% 100%  
195 0.5% 99.6%  
196 2% 99.2%  
197 4% 97%  
198 15% 93%  
199 22% 79%  
200 11% 56% Median
201 13% 45% Last Result
202 4% 32%  
203 16% 28%  
204 0.9% 12%  
205 0.6% 11%  
206 0.8% 10%  
207 0.7% 9%  
208 2% 9%  
209 2% 7%  
210 0.5% 5%  
211 4% 4%  
212 0.5% 0.8%  
213 0.2% 0.3%  
214 0.1% 0.1%  
215 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
162 0% 100%  
163 0.2% 99.9%  
164 0.9% 99.7%  
165 2% 98.8%  
166 9% 97%  
167 8% 88%  
168 23% 80%  
169 14% 56% Median
170 14% 42% Last Result
171 8% 28%  
172 8% 21%  
173 3% 13%  
174 2% 10%  
175 0.6% 9% Majority
176 2% 8%  
177 2% 6%  
178 0.4% 4%  
179 4% 4%  
180 0.1% 0.3%  
181 0.2% 0.3%  
182 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0.2% 100%  
150 0.5% 99.8%  
151 2% 99.3%  
152 9% 97%  
153 9% 88%  
154 14% 79% Last Result
155 15% 65%  
156 16% 51% Median
157 15% 34%  
158 6% 20%  
159 3% 14%  
160 1.1% 11%  
161 1.1% 10%  
162 4% 8%  
163 2% 4%  
164 1.1% 2%  
165 0.6% 1.1%  
166 0.3% 0.4%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0.1% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0.1% 100%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 1.1% 99.7%  
133 2% 98.6%  
134 0.2% 96%  
135 1.4% 96%  
136 4% 95%  
137 0.2% 90%  
138 0.4% 90%  
139 0.9% 90%  
140 1.3% 89%  
141 4% 88%  
142 17% 83%  
143 14% 66%  
144 12% 52% Last Result, Median
145 13% 40%  
146 16% 27%  
147 8% 10%  
148 2% 3%  
149 0.6% 0.8%  
150 0.2% 0.2%  
151 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0.1% 100%  
135 0.4% 99.9%  
136 2% 99.5%  
137 7% 98%  
138 8% 91%  
139 14% 82%  
140 23% 68%  
141 14% 45% Median
142 13% 32%  
143 5% 19% Last Result
144 3% 14%  
145 3% 11%  
146 3% 8%  
147 2% 5%  
148 1.2% 2%  
149 0.5% 1.2%  
150 0.5% 0.7%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0.1% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0.2% 100%  
128 0.8% 99.8%  
129 2% 99.0%  
130 10% 97%  
131 16% 87%  
132 19% 71% Last Result
133 15% 52% Median
134 17% 37%  
135 6% 20%  
136 3% 14%  
137 1.1% 11%  
138 1.4% 9%  
139 4% 8%  
140 2% 4%  
141 1.0% 1.4%  
142 0.2% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0.3% 100%  
124 1.4% 99.6%  
125 0.7% 98%  
126 5% 97%  
127 22% 93%  
128 15% 71% Last Result
129 7% 57% Median
130 19% 50%  
131 17% 31%  
132 3% 13%  
133 3% 10%  
134 0.7% 7%  
135 1.5% 6%  
136 4% 5%  
137 0.1% 0.4%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0.3% 100%  
117 0.8% 99.7%  
118 2% 98.8%  
119 14% 97%  
120 11% 83%  
121 16% 72%  
122 17% 56% Median
123 20% 39% Last Result
124 5% 19%  
125 4% 14%  
126 3% 11%  
127 5% 8%  
128 1.0% 3%  
129 0.8% 2%  
130 0.4% 0.9%  
131 0.4% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0.1% 100%  
113 0.4% 99.9%  
114 2% 99.5%  
115 9% 97%  
116 12% 88%  
117 20% 76%  
118 27% 56% Median
119 11% 29%  
120 4% 18%  
121 3% 14% Last Result
122 3% 10%  
123 4% 8%  
124 3% 4%  
125 0.7% 1.3%  
126 0.4% 0.6%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0.1% 100%  
102 0.3% 99.9%  
103 0.4% 99.6%  
104 1.4% 99.2%  
105 2% 98%  
106 2% 96%  
107 4% 94%  
108 0.4% 91%  
109 0.1% 90%  
110 0.1% 90%  
111 0.3% 90%  
112 0.9% 90%  
113 3% 89%  
114 9% 86%  
115 16% 77%  
116 17% 61% Last Result, Median
117 15% 44%  
118 15% 29%  
119 11% 14%  
120 2% 3%  
121 0.8% 1.2%  
122 0.3% 0.3%  
123 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 1.0% 99.8%  
96 3% 98.8%  
97 19% 96%  
98 13% 77%  
99 22% 64% Median
100 24% 42%  
101 5% 19% Last Result
102 4% 14%  
103 2% 9%  
104 6% 8%  
105 0.4% 1.4%  
106 0.7% 1.1%  
107 0.3% 0.3%  
108 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations