Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 1–4 October 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 28.3% | 27.1–29.6% | 26.8–29.9% | 26.5–30.2% | 25.9–30.8% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 19.7% | 18.6–20.8% | 18.3–21.1% | 18.1–21.4% | 17.6–21.9% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 18.8% | 17.8–19.9% | 17.5–20.2% | 17.2–20.5% | 16.8–21.0% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.7–9.2% | 7.5–9.4% | 7.3–9.6% | 7.0–10.0% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.7–9.2% | 7.5–9.4% | 7.3–9.6% | 7.0–10.0% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.4–6.7% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.1–5.2% | 3.9–5.4% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.9% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.9–5.0% | 3.7–5.2% | 3.6–5.4% | 3.4–5.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 101 | 96–106 | 95–108 | 94–109 | 92–113 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 70 | 66–74 | 65–76 | 64–77 | 62–80 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 67 | 63–71 | 62–72 | 61–74 | 59–76 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 30 | 27–33 | 27–34 | 26–35 | 25–36 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 30 | 27–33 | 27–34 | 26–35 | 25–36 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 21 | 19–24 | 18–25 | 18–25 | 17–27 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 16 | 14–18 | 0–19 | 0–20 | 0–21 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 16 | 0–18 | 0–18 | 0–19 | 0–20 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 92 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 93 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 94 | 3% | 98% | |
| 95 | 4% | 95% | |
| 96 | 4% | 91% | |
| 97 | 11% | 87% | |
| 98 | 2% | 76% | |
| 99 | 13% | 74% | |
| 100 | 8% | 61% | Last Result |
| 101 | 10% | 53% | Median |
| 102 | 10% | 42% | |
| 103 | 6% | 33% | |
| 104 | 9% | 27% | |
| 105 | 5% | 18% | |
| 106 | 4% | 12% | |
| 107 | 2% | 8% | |
| 108 | 2% | 6% | |
| 109 | 2% | 4% | |
| 110 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 4% | 96% | |
| 66 | 7% | 92% | |
| 67 | 12% | 85% | |
| 68 | 7% | 73% | |
| 69 | 6% | 65% | |
| 70 | 11% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 71 | 13% | 48% | |
| 72 | 12% | 35% | |
| 73 | 6% | 23% | |
| 74 | 7% | 17% | |
| 75 | 4% | 10% | |
| 76 | 3% | 6% | |
| 77 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 4% | 96% | Last Result |
| 63 | 4% | 92% | |
| 64 | 11% | 88% | |
| 65 | 10% | 77% | |
| 66 | 15% | 67% | |
| 67 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 68 | 10% | 42% | |
| 69 | 11% | 32% | |
| 70 | 6% | 21% | |
| 71 | 6% | 15% | |
| 72 | 4% | 9% | |
| 73 | 2% | 5% | |
| 74 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 27 | 9% | 96% | |
| 28 | 11% | 87% | |
| 29 | 13% | 77% | |
| 30 | 24% | 63% | Median |
| 31 | 13% | 39% | Last Result |
| 32 | 12% | 26% | |
| 33 | 8% | 15% | |
| 34 | 3% | 7% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 27 | 7% | 96% | |
| 28 | 13% | 89% | Last Result |
| 29 | 16% | 76% | |
| 30 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 31 | 19% | 44% | |
| 32 | 10% | 25% | |
| 33 | 8% | 15% | |
| 34 | 4% | 6% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 19 | 11% | 95% | |
| 20 | 14% | 84% | |
| 21 | 21% | 70% | Median |
| 22 | 19% | 49% | Last Result |
| 23 | 16% | 29% | |
| 24 | 7% | 13% | |
| 25 | 4% | 6% | |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 92% | |
| 2 | 0% | 92% | |
| 3 | 0% | 92% | |
| 4 | 0% | 92% | |
| 5 | 0% | 92% | |
| 6 | 0% | 92% | |
| 7 | 0% | 92% | |
| 8 | 0% | 92% | |
| 9 | 0% | 92% | |
| 10 | 0% | 92% | |
| 11 | 0% | 92% | |
| 12 | 0% | 92% | |
| 13 | 0% | 92% | |
| 14 | 4% | 92% | |
| 15 | 16% | 88% | |
| 16 | 24% | 73% | Median |
| 17 | 24% | 49% | |
| 18 | 16% | 25% | |
| 19 | 7% | 10% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 85% | |
| 2 | 0% | 85% | |
| 3 | 0% | 85% | |
| 4 | 0% | 85% | |
| 5 | 0% | 85% | |
| 6 | 0% | 85% | |
| 7 | 0% | 85% | |
| 8 | 0% | 85% | |
| 9 | 0% | 85% | |
| 10 | 0% | 85% | |
| 11 | 0% | 85% | |
| 12 | 0% | 85% | |
| 13 | 0% | 85% | |
| 14 | 5% | 85% | |
| 15 | 25% | 80% | |
| 16 | 23% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 17 | 20% | 32% | |
| 18 | 8% | 12% | |
| 19 | 3% | 5% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 200 | 100% | 195–209 | 193–213 | 192–214 | 190–220 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 170 | 22% | 165–179 | 164–181 | 163–183 | 160–188 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 158 | 0.4% | 153–166 | 151–168 | 150–170 | 148–174 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 145 | 0% | 137–151 | 135–154 | 132–155 | 129–157 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 137 | 0% | 132–144 | 130–146 | 129–147 | 127–152 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 137 | 0% | 131–144 | 128–146 | 125–147 | 121–150 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 131 | 0% | 125–137 | 124–139 | 123–141 | 120–145 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 121 | 0% | 116–128 | 115–130 | 114–131 | 112–136 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 116 | 0% | 110–122 | 106–124 | 103–125 | 99–128 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 115 | 0% | 106–121 | 103–123 | 101–125 | 98–127 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 100 | 0% | 95–106 | 94–108 | 93–109 | 91–112 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 187 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 190 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 191 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 192 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 193 | 4% | 97% | |
| 194 | 2% | 93% | |
| 195 | 5% | 91% | |
| 196 | 6% | 86% | |
| 197 | 5% | 80% | |
| 198 | 11% | 75% | |
| 199 | 9% | 64% | |
| 200 | 7% | 55% | |
| 201 | 6% | 48% | Last Result, Median |
| 202 | 8% | 42% | |
| 203 | 7% | 34% | |
| 204 | 3% | 27% | |
| 205 | 3% | 24% | |
| 206 | 3% | 21% | |
| 207 | 3% | 17% | |
| 208 | 2% | 15% | |
| 209 | 3% | 12% | |
| 210 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 211 | 2% | 8% | |
| 212 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 213 | 2% | 6% | |
| 214 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 215 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 216 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 217 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 218 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 219 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 220 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 223 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 226 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 162 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 163 | 2% | 98% | |
| 164 | 4% | 95% | |
| 165 | 3% | 91% | |
| 166 | 8% | 88% | |
| 167 | 6% | 80% | |
| 168 | 9% | 75% | |
| 169 | 10% | 65% | |
| 170 | 6% | 55% | Last Result |
| 171 | 7% | 49% | Median |
| 172 | 8% | 42% | |
| 173 | 7% | 34% | |
| 174 | 5% | 27% | |
| 175 | 3% | 22% | Majority |
| 176 | 3% | 19% | |
| 177 | 2% | 16% | |
| 178 | 3% | 13% | |
| 179 | 3% | 11% | |
| 180 | 2% | 7% | |
| 181 | 2% | 5% | |
| 182 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 184 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 149 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 150 | 1.5% | 98.6% | |
| 151 | 4% | 97% | |
| 152 | 3% | 93% | |
| 153 | 7% | 91% | |
| 154 | 8% | 84% | Last Result |
| 155 | 5% | 76% | |
| 156 | 5% | 71% | |
| 157 | 11% | 66% | |
| 158 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 159 | 8% | 47% | |
| 160 | 7% | 39% | |
| 161 | 6% | 32% | |
| 162 | 5% | 26% | |
| 163 | 4% | 21% | |
| 164 | 3% | 17% | |
| 165 | 3% | 14% | |
| 166 | 3% | 11% | |
| 167 | 2% | 8% | |
| 168 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 169 | 2% | 5% | |
| 170 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 171 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 174 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 131 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 132 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 134 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 135 | 2% | 95% | |
| 136 | 2% | 93% | |
| 137 | 2% | 91% | |
| 138 | 1.2% | 89% | |
| 139 | 2% | 88% | |
| 140 | 5% | 86% | |
| 141 | 5% | 81% | |
| 142 | 3% | 75% | |
| 143 | 6% | 73% | |
| 144 | 12% | 67% | Last Result |
| 145 | 9% | 55% | |
| 146 | 8% | 46% | |
| 147 | 2% | 38% | Median |
| 148 | 9% | 35% | |
| 149 | 9% | 26% | |
| 150 | 5% | 17% | |
| 151 | 2% | 12% | |
| 152 | 2% | 10% | |
| 153 | 2% | 7% | |
| 154 | 3% | 5% | |
| 155 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 156 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 157 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 128 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 129 | 2% | 98% | |
| 130 | 3% | 97% | |
| 131 | 3% | 93% | |
| 132 | 6% | 90% | Last Result |
| 133 | 10% | 84% | |
| 134 | 6% | 74% | |
| 135 | 8% | 69% | |
| 136 | 9% | 61% | |
| 137 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 138 | 9% | 45% | |
| 139 | 5% | 35% | |
| 140 | 8% | 31% | |
| 141 | 4% | 22% | |
| 142 | 4% | 18% | |
| 143 | 4% | 14% | |
| 144 | 2% | 10% | |
| 145 | 3% | 8% | |
| 146 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 147 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 148 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 124 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 125 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 126 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 127 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 128 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 129 | 2% | 95% | |
| 130 | 3% | 93% | |
| 131 | 2% | 90% | |
| 132 | 4% | 89% | |
| 133 | 7% | 84% | |
| 134 | 4% | 77% | |
| 135 | 12% | 73% | |
| 136 | 5% | 62% | |
| 137 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 138 | 3% | 43% | |
| 139 | 8% | 40% | |
| 140 | 5% | 32% | |
| 141 | 6% | 27% | |
| 142 | 8% | 21% | |
| 143 | 2% | 13% | Last Result |
| 144 | 2% | 11% | |
| 145 | 3% | 8% | |
| 146 | 3% | 6% | |
| 147 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 122 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 123 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 124 | 3% | 97% | |
| 125 | 5% | 94% | |
| 126 | 5% | 89% | |
| 127 | 7% | 84% | |
| 128 | 7% | 77% | Last Result |
| 129 | 10% | 70% | |
| 130 | 9% | 60% | |
| 131 | 6% | 50% | Median |
| 132 | 9% | 45% | |
| 133 | 6% | 36% | |
| 134 | 9% | 29% | |
| 135 | 4% | 21% | |
| 136 | 5% | 16% | |
| 137 | 3% | 12% | |
| 138 | 3% | 9% | |
| 139 | 2% | 6% | |
| 140 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 141 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 142 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 144 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 113 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 114 | 2% | 98% | |
| 115 | 3% | 96% | |
| 116 | 4% | 93% | |
| 117 | 5% | 89% | |
| 118 | 12% | 85% | |
| 119 | 8% | 73% | |
| 120 | 8% | 65% | |
| 121 | 9% | 58% | Median |
| 122 | 9% | 49% | |
| 123 | 8% | 40% | Last Result |
| 124 | 4% | 32% | |
| 125 | 6% | 27% | |
| 126 | 6% | 21% | |
| 127 | 4% | 15% | |
| 128 | 3% | 11% | |
| 129 | 2% | 9% | |
| 130 | 3% | 6% | |
| 131 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 132 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 100 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 102 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 103 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 104 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 105 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 106 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 107 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 108 | 2% | 94% | |
| 109 | 2% | 92% | |
| 110 | 4% | 90% | |
| 111 | 4% | 86% | |
| 112 | 4% | 82% | |
| 113 | 4% | 78% | |
| 114 | 15% | 74% | |
| 115 | 7% | 59% | |
| 116 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 117 | 8% | 44% | |
| 118 | 7% | 37% | |
| 119 | 6% | 30% | |
| 120 | 9% | 24% | |
| 121 | 4% | 14% | Last Result |
| 122 | 3% | 10% | |
| 123 | 2% | 8% | |
| 124 | 3% | 6% | |
| 125 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 126 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 100 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 101 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 103 | 2% | 97% | |
| 104 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 105 | 4% | 94% | |
| 106 | 1.0% | 90% | |
| 107 | 1.0% | 89% | |
| 108 | 1.2% | 88% | |
| 109 | 2% | 87% | |
| 110 | 2% | 85% | |
| 111 | 6% | 83% | |
| 112 | 5% | 77% | |
| 113 | 5% | 73% | |
| 114 | 11% | 67% | |
| 115 | 6% | 56% | |
| 116 | 8% | 50% | Last Result |
| 117 | 11% | 42% | Median |
| 118 | 7% | 30% | |
| 119 | 6% | 23% | |
| 120 | 5% | 17% | |
| 121 | 3% | 12% | |
| 122 | 3% | 8% | |
| 123 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 124 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 125 | 2% | 3% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 92 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 93 | 2% | 98% | |
| 94 | 2% | 96% | |
| 95 | 5% | 94% | |
| 96 | 7% | 89% | |
| 97 | 12% | 82% | |
| 98 | 8% | 71% | |
| 99 | 7% | 63% | |
| 100 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 101 | 7% | 47% | Last Result |
| 102 | 11% | 40% | |
| 103 | 11% | 29% | |
| 104 | 5% | 19% | |
| 105 | 3% | 14% | |
| 106 | 2% | 11% | |
| 107 | 2% | 8% | |
| 108 | 4% | 6% | |
| 109 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 110 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 1–4 October 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 2200
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.43%