Opinion Poll by Inizio for Aftonbladet, 1–8 October 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 29.7% | 28.3–31.1% | 27.9–31.5% | 27.6–31.9% | 26.9–32.5% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 19.3% | 18.2–20.6% | 17.8–21.0% | 17.6–21.3% | 17.0–21.9% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 17.9% | 16.7–19.1% | 16.4–19.4% | 16.1–19.7% | 15.6–20.3% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.9–9.6% | 7.6–9.9% | 7.5–10.1% | 7.1–10.5% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.5–8.1% | 6.3–8.4% | 6.1–8.6% | 5.8–9.0% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6–7.1% | 5.4–7.3% | 5.2–7.5% | 4.9–7.9% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.3–5.6% | 4.1–5.8% | 4.0–6.0% | 3.7–6.4% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.7–5.0% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.5–5.4% | 3.2–5.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 106 | 101–112 | 100–114 | 98–116 | 95–120 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 69 | 65–74 | 64–75 | 63–77 | 60–80 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 63 | 60–68 | 58–70 | 58–71 | 55–74 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 31 | 28–34 | 27–35 | 27–36 | 25–38 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 26 | 23–29 | 23–30 | 22–31 | 21–32 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 23 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 19–27 | 18–28 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 18 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 0–21 | 0–23 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 15 | 0–18 | 0–18 | 0–19 | 0–20 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 97 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 98 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 99 | 2% | 97% | |
| 100 | 3% | 95% | Last Result |
| 101 | 4% | 93% | |
| 102 | 4% | 88% | |
| 103 | 7% | 84% | |
| 104 | 11% | 77% | |
| 105 | 7% | 66% | |
| 106 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 107 | 15% | 47% | |
| 108 | 8% | 32% | |
| 109 | 5% | 24% | |
| 110 | 3% | 19% | |
| 111 | 3% | 15% | |
| 112 | 5% | 12% | |
| 113 | 2% | 8% | |
| 114 | 2% | 6% | |
| 115 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 116 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 62 | 1.2% | 98.8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98% | |
| 64 | 3% | 95% | |
| 65 | 3% | 92% | |
| 66 | 5% | 89% | |
| 67 | 8% | 85% | |
| 68 | 23% | 77% | |
| 69 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 70 | 8% | 44% | Last Result |
| 71 | 9% | 36% | |
| 72 | 7% | 27% | |
| 73 | 5% | 20% | |
| 74 | 6% | 15% | |
| 75 | 5% | 9% | |
| 76 | 2% | 4% | |
| 77 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 58 | 3% | 98% | |
| 59 | 2% | 95% | |
| 60 | 8% | 92% | |
| 61 | 7% | 84% | |
| 62 | 12% | 78% | Last Result |
| 63 | 17% | 66% | Median |
| 64 | 9% | 49% | |
| 65 | 10% | 40% | |
| 66 | 6% | 31% | |
| 67 | 7% | 24% | |
| 68 | 8% | 17% | |
| 69 | 4% | 10% | |
| 70 | 3% | 6% | |
| 71 | 2% | 4% | |
| 72 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 27 | 5% | 98% | |
| 28 | 7% | 93% | |
| 29 | 9% | 86% | |
| 30 | 15% | 77% | |
| 31 | 22% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 32 | 11% | 40% | |
| 33 | 15% | 29% | |
| 34 | 5% | 14% | |
| 35 | 4% | 9% | |
| 36 | 3% | 5% | |
| 37 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 21 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 23 | 7% | 96% | |
| 24 | 14% | 89% | |
| 25 | 11% | 75% | |
| 26 | 23% | 64% | Median |
| 27 | 17% | 41% | |
| 28 | 8% | 23% | Last Result |
| 29 | 7% | 15% | |
| 30 | 4% | 9% | |
| 31 | 3% | 5% | |
| 32 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 5% | 98% | |
| 20 | 7% | 93% | |
| 21 | 14% | 86% | |
| 22 | 18% | 72% | Last Result |
| 23 | 22% | 53% | Median |
| 24 | 11% | 31% | |
| 25 | 11% | 21% | |
| 26 | 5% | 9% | |
| 27 | 3% | 4% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 0% | 97% | |
| 3 | 0% | 97% | |
| 4 | 0% | 97% | |
| 5 | 0% | 97% | |
| 6 | 0% | 97% | |
| 7 | 0% | 97% | |
| 8 | 0% | 97% | |
| 9 | 0% | 97% | |
| 10 | 0% | 97% | |
| 11 | 0% | 97% | |
| 12 | 0% | 97% | |
| 13 | 0% | 97% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 15 | 8% | 96% | |
| 16 | 16% | 88% | |
| 17 | 20% | 71% | |
| 18 | 24% | 52% | Median |
| 19 | 13% | 28% | |
| 20 | 7% | 15% | Last Result |
| 21 | 5% | 7% | |
| 22 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 76% | |
| 2 | 0% | 76% | |
| 3 | 0% | 76% | |
| 4 | 0% | 76% | |
| 5 | 0% | 76% | |
| 6 | 0% | 76% | |
| 7 | 0% | 76% | |
| 8 | 0% | 76% | |
| 9 | 0% | 76% | |
| 10 | 0% | 76% | |
| 11 | 0% | 76% | |
| 12 | 0% | 76% | |
| 13 | 0% | 76% | |
| 14 | 11% | 76% | |
| 15 | 22% | 65% | Median |
| 16 | 18% | 43% | Last Result |
| 17 | 13% | 25% | |
| 18 | 8% | 12% | |
| 19 | 4% | 5% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 206 | 100% | 200–215 | 198–217 | 196–219 | 194–223 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 175 | 58% | 169–183 | 167–185 | 166–187 | 163–192 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 156 | 0.1% | 150–164 | 148–166 | 147–167 | 144–171 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 145 | 0% | 136–151 | 133–153 | 133–155 | 128–159 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 140 | 0% | 134–147 | 132–149 | 129–151 | 125–155 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 133 | 0% | 128–140 | 126–142 | 124–143 | 122–146 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 132 | 0% | 127–139 | 125–141 | 123–143 | 121–147 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 123 | 0% | 118–129 | 116–132 | 114–134 | 112–137 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 121 | 0% | 108–125 | 107–128 | 105–129 | 102–132 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 118 | 0% | 112–124 | 110–126 | 106–127 | 101–131 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 100 | 0% | 95–106 | 94–108 | 93–109 | 90–112 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 194 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 195 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 196 | 1.3% | 98.6% | |
| 197 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 198 | 2% | 96% | |
| 199 | 2% | 94% | |
| 200 | 4% | 92% | |
| 201 | 6% | 87% | Last Result |
| 202 | 5% | 82% | |
| 203 | 5% | 77% | |
| 204 | 8% | 72% | |
| 205 | 3% | 64% | |
| 206 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 207 | 7% | 48% | |
| 208 | 6% | 41% | |
| 209 | 7% | 36% | |
| 210 | 5% | 29% | |
| 211 | 4% | 24% | |
| 212 | 3% | 20% | |
| 213 | 3% | 17% | |
| 214 | 3% | 15% | |
| 215 | 2% | 11% | |
| 216 | 4% | 9% | |
| 217 | 2% | 5% | |
| 218 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 219 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 220 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 221 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 222 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 223 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 232 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 164 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 165 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 166 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 167 | 2% | 97% | |
| 168 | 2% | 95% | |
| 169 | 4% | 93% | |
| 170 | 6% | 89% | Last Result |
| 171 | 4% | 84% | |
| 172 | 5% | 80% | |
| 173 | 7% | 74% | |
| 174 | 10% | 68% | |
| 175 | 12% | 58% | Median, Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 45% | |
| 177 | 8% | 42% | |
| 178 | 7% | 34% | |
| 179 | 4% | 26% | |
| 180 | 5% | 22% | |
| 181 | 2% | 18% | |
| 182 | 3% | 15% | |
| 183 | 4% | 12% | |
| 184 | 2% | 8% | |
| 185 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 186 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 187 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 188 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 189 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 191 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 141 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 144 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 145 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 146 | 0.7% | 98.6% | |
| 147 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 148 | 2% | 97% | |
| 149 | 3% | 95% | |
| 150 | 3% | 91% | |
| 151 | 4% | 89% | |
| 152 | 6% | 85% | |
| 153 | 16% | 79% | |
| 154 | 6% | 62% | Last Result |
| 155 | 5% | 57% | Median |
| 156 | 9% | 51% | |
| 157 | 9% | 43% | |
| 158 | 6% | 33% | |
| 159 | 3% | 28% | |
| 160 | 4% | 24% | |
| 161 | 4% | 20% | |
| 162 | 4% | 17% | |
| 163 | 2% | 13% | |
| 164 | 2% | 10% | |
| 165 | 2% | 8% | |
| 166 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 167 | 2% | 5% | |
| 168 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 132 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 133 | 4% | 98% | |
| 134 | 2% | 94% | |
| 135 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 136 | 2% | 92% | |
| 137 | 3% | 90% | |
| 138 | 5% | 87% | |
| 139 | 3% | 82% | |
| 140 | 2% | 79% | |
| 141 | 4% | 77% | |
| 142 | 3% | 73% | |
| 143 | 3% | 71% | |
| 144 | 6% | 68% | Last Result |
| 145 | 13% | 63% | |
| 146 | 9% | 50% | |
| 147 | 13% | 41% | Median |
| 148 | 7% | 29% | |
| 149 | 7% | 21% | |
| 150 | 4% | 14% | |
| 151 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 152 | 2% | 9% | |
| 153 | 3% | 7% | |
| 154 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 155 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 156 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 157 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 159 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 125 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 127 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 129 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 130 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 131 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 132 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 133 | 2% | 94% | |
| 134 | 3% | 92% | |
| 135 | 3% | 89% | |
| 136 | 4% | 86% | |
| 137 | 6% | 82% | |
| 138 | 7% | 77% | |
| 139 | 13% | 69% | |
| 140 | 10% | 56% | |
| 141 | 10% | 46% | Median |
| 142 | 6% | 37% | |
| 143 | 6% | 31% | Last Result |
| 144 | 5% | 25% | |
| 145 | 4% | 20% | |
| 146 | 2% | 16% | |
| 147 | 4% | 13% | |
| 148 | 2% | 9% | |
| 149 | 3% | 8% | |
| 150 | 2% | 5% | |
| 151 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 152 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 153 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 119 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 123 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 124 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 125 | 2% | 97% | |
| 126 | 2% | 96% | |
| 127 | 2% | 94% | |
| 128 | 4% | 91% | |
| 129 | 7% | 87% | |
| 130 | 7% | 80% | |
| 131 | 12% | 73% | |
| 132 | 8% | 61% | Last Result, Median |
| 133 | 7% | 53% | |
| 134 | 6% | 46% | |
| 135 | 8% | 40% | |
| 136 | 6% | 32% | |
| 137 | 5% | 26% | |
| 138 | 6% | 21% | |
| 139 | 4% | 15% | |
| 140 | 3% | 11% | |
| 141 | 3% | 9% | |
| 142 | 3% | 6% | |
| 143 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 144 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 145 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 146 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 122 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 123 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 124 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 125 | 2% | 96% | |
| 126 | 4% | 94% | |
| 127 | 4% | 91% | |
| 128 | 5% | 87% | Last Result |
| 129 | 5% | 82% | |
| 130 | 13% | 77% | |
| 131 | 10% | 64% | |
| 132 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 133 | 14% | 46% | |
| 134 | 4% | 32% | |
| 135 | 4% | 28% | |
| 136 | 4% | 24% | |
| 137 | 3% | 20% | |
| 138 | 5% | 16% | |
| 139 | 4% | 11% | |
| 140 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 141 | 2% | 7% | |
| 142 | 2% | 5% | |
| 143 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 144 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 147 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 113 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 114 | 1.0% | 98.5% | |
| 115 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 116 | 2% | 96% | |
| 117 | 3% | 94% | |
| 118 | 5% | 91% | |
| 119 | 4% | 86% | |
| 120 | 8% | 82% | |
| 121 | 12% | 74% | |
| 122 | 7% | 62% | |
| 123 | 9% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 124 | 12% | 46% | |
| 125 | 6% | 34% | |
| 126 | 5% | 28% | |
| 127 | 6% | 23% | |
| 128 | 3% | 17% | |
| 129 | 4% | 14% | |
| 130 | 2% | 10% | |
| 131 | 2% | 8% | |
| 132 | 2% | 6% | |
| 133 | 2% | 5% | |
| 134 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 135 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 104 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 105 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 107 | 3% | 96% | |
| 108 | 3% | 93% | |
| 109 | 2% | 90% | |
| 110 | 2% | 88% | |
| 111 | 2% | 85% | |
| 112 | 4% | 83% | |
| 113 | 2% | 80% | |
| 114 | 2% | 78% | |
| 115 | 2% | 76% | |
| 116 | 3% | 74% | Last Result |
| 117 | 6% | 72% | |
| 118 | 4% | 65% | |
| 119 | 5% | 61% | |
| 120 | 4% | 56% | |
| 121 | 25% | 52% | Median |
| 122 | 5% | 27% | |
| 123 | 5% | 22% | |
| 124 | 6% | 16% | |
| 125 | 2% | 10% | |
| 126 | 2% | 8% | |
| 127 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 128 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 129 | 2% | 4% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 132 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 101 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 106 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 107 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 108 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 109 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 110 | 1.5% | 95% | |
| 111 | 2% | 94% | |
| 112 | 3% | 91% | |
| 113 | 5% | 89% | |
| 114 | 5% | 84% | |
| 115 | 6% | 79% | |
| 116 | 6% | 73% | |
| 117 | 16% | 67% | |
| 118 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 119 | 7% | 42% | |
| 120 | 11% | 35% | |
| 121 | 4% | 24% | Last Result |
| 122 | 4% | 20% | |
| 123 | 4% | 16% | |
| 124 | 3% | 11% | |
| 125 | 3% | 8% | |
| 126 | 2% | 6% | |
| 127 | 2% | 4% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 129 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 92 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 93 | 2% | 98% | |
| 94 | 3% | 96% | |
| 95 | 3% | 93% | |
| 96 | 5% | 90% | |
| 97 | 6% | 85% | |
| 98 | 7% | 79% | |
| 99 | 14% | 72% | |
| 100 | 9% | 58% | Median |
| 101 | 13% | 49% | Last Result |
| 102 | 5% | 37% | |
| 103 | 9% | 32% | |
| 104 | 5% | 23% | |
| 105 | 6% | 18% | |
| 106 | 3% | 12% | |
| 107 | 2% | 9% | |
| 108 | 3% | 7% | |
| 109 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 110 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Inizio
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 1–8 October 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1763
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.07%