Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 8–18 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 29.4% 28.7–30.0% 28.6–30.2% 28.4–30.3% 28.1–30.7%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 18.8% 18.2–19.3% 18.1–19.5% 18.0–19.6% 17.7–19.9%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 18.6% 18.0–19.1% 17.9–19.3% 17.8–19.4% 17.5–19.7%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 9.1% 8.7–9.5% 8.6–9.6% 8.5–9.7% 8.3–9.9%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 7.9% 7.5–8.3% 7.4–8.4% 7.3–8.5% 7.2–8.7%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 6.0% 5.7–6.3% 5.6–6.4% 5.5–6.5% 5.3–6.7%
Liberalerna 5.5% 4.9% 4.6–5.2% 4.5–5.3% 4.5–5.4% 4.3–5.5%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 4.1% 3.8–4.4% 3.8–4.5% 3.7–4.5% 3.6–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 105 102–109 101–110 101–111 99–112
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 67 65–70 64–70 64–71 63–72
Sverigedemokraterna 62 66 64–69 63–70 63–71 62–72
Centerpartiet 31 32 31–34 30–35 30–35 30–36
Vänsterpartiet 28 28 27–30 26–30 26–31 25–31
Kristdemokraterna 22 22 20–23 20–23 20–23 19–24
Liberalerna 20 18 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 15 0–15 0–16 0–16 0–17

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0.1% 100%  
99 0.5% 99.9%  
100 2% 99.4% Last Result
101 3% 98%  
102 13% 94%  
103 9% 81%  
104 19% 72%  
105 14% 54% Median
106 10% 39%  
107 9% 29%  
108 10% 21%  
109 4% 11%  
110 4% 7%  
111 2% 3%  
112 1.2% 1.4%  
113 0.2% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.4% 100%  
63 2% 99.6%  
64 4% 98%  
65 14% 94%  
66 18% 80%  
67 20% 62% Median
68 17% 42%  
69 9% 25%  
70 12% 16% Last Result
71 2% 5%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 1.1% 99.8% Last Result
63 4% 98.7%  
64 10% 94%  
65 17% 85%  
66 19% 67% Median
67 16% 49%  
68 18% 32%  
69 8% 15%  
70 3% 7%  
71 3% 4%  
72 0.7% 0.8%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.4% 100%  
30 5% 99.6%  
31 18% 95% Last Result
32 34% 77% Median
33 21% 43%  
34 14% 22%  
35 7% 8%  
36 1.1% 1.3%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.6% 100%  
26 6% 99.4%  
27 28% 93%  
28 24% 65% Last Result, Median
29 30% 42%  
30 8% 11%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.4% 0.4%  
33 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.9%  
20 20% 98%  
21 28% 78%  
22 32% 50% Last Result, Median
23 16% 18%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.1% 100%  
16 11% 98.9%  
17 37% 88%  
18 33% 51% Median
19 17% 18%  
20 1.4% 1.5% Last Result
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100%  
1 0% 70%  
2 0% 70%  
3 0% 70%  
4 0% 70%  
5 0% 70%  
6 0% 70%  
7 0% 70%  
8 0% 70%  
9 0% 70%  
10 0% 70%  
11 0% 70%  
12 0% 70%  
13 0% 70%  
14 18% 70%  
15 44% 53% Median
16 8% 8% Last Result
17 0.8% 0.8%  
18 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 203 100% 200–212 200–213 199–213 198–215
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 171 29% 168–178 167–179 167–180 165–182
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna 154 154 0% 151–161 150–162 150–163 149–164
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 145 0% 136–148 135–149 135–150 134–151
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 143 138 0% 135–144 134–145 134–146 132–147
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 132 133 0% 130–138 129–139 129–141 127–142
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 133 0% 129–138 129–139 128–140 127–141
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 123 120 0% 118–126 117–127 116–128 115–129
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 117 0% 114–122 113–123 113–124 112–124
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 118 0% 108–121 107–121 106–122 105–123
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 99 0% 97–104 96–104 95–105 94–106

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
196 0.1% 100%  
197 0.3% 99.9%  
198 1.5% 99.6%  
199 3% 98%  
200 11% 95%  
201 10% 84% Last Result
202 14% 74%  
203 12% 60%  
204 11% 48% Median
205 4% 37%  
206 2% 32%  
207 2% 30%  
208 1.0% 28%  
209 3% 27%  
210 6% 24%  
211 4% 18%  
212 8% 14%  
213 4% 7%  
214 2% 2%  
215 0.7% 0.9%  
216 0.1% 0.2%  
217 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0.1% 100%  
165 0.5% 99.8%  
166 2% 99.4%  
167 4% 98%  
168 9% 94%  
169 9% 85%  
170 15% 76% Last Result
171 12% 61%  
172 13% 49% Median
173 5% 36%  
174 2% 31%  
175 3% 29% Majority
176 4% 26%  
177 7% 22%  
178 8% 15%  
179 4% 7%  
180 2% 3%  
181 0.9% 2%  
182 0.4% 0.6%  
183 0.2% 0.2%  
184 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0.1% 100%  
148 0.4% 99.9%  
149 1.1% 99.5%  
150 5% 98%  
151 6% 93%  
152 12% 87%  
153 14% 75%  
154 13% 61% Last Result
155 8% 48% Median
156 8% 39%  
157 5% 31%  
158 3% 26%  
159 7% 23%  
160 5% 17%  
161 5% 12%  
162 4% 7%  
163 2% 3%  
164 0.4% 0.8%  
165 0.3% 0.4%  
166 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0.1% 100%  
133 0.3% 99.9%  
134 1.2% 99.6%  
135 4% 98%  
136 6% 95%  
137 6% 89%  
138 4% 83%  
139 5% 78%  
140 2% 74%  
141 1.0% 72%  
142 1.0% 71%  
143 3% 70%  
144 10% 67% Last Result
145 7% 57%  
146 13% 50%  
147 16% 37%  
148 12% 21% Median
149 5% 9%  
150 3% 4%  
151 0.5% 0.8%  
152 0.2% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0.1% 100%  
132 0.5% 99.9%  
133 1.4% 99.4%  
134 5% 98%  
135 9% 93%  
136 13% 84%  
137 19% 71%  
138 10% 52%  
139 8% 42% Median
140 5% 34%  
141 3% 29%  
142 6% 26%  
143 4% 19% Last Result
144 7% 15%  
145 5% 8%  
146 2% 3%  
147 0.7% 0.9%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0.1% 100%  
127 0.5% 99.9%  
128 1.3% 99.5%  
129 5% 98%  
130 8% 94%  
131 12% 86%  
132 16% 74% Last Result
133 12% 59% Median
134 13% 47%  
135 7% 34%  
136 5% 27%  
137 5% 22%  
138 7% 17%  
139 5% 10%  
140 2% 5%  
141 2% 3%  
142 0.6% 0.8%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0.1% 100%  
127 0.6% 99.9%  
128 2% 99.2% Last Result
129 9% 97%  
130 8% 88%  
131 12% 80%  
132 15% 68%  
133 15% 53% Median
134 7% 38%  
135 7% 32%  
136 7% 25%  
137 6% 18%  
138 4% 12%  
139 5% 8%  
140 2% 3%  
141 0.9% 1.3%  
142 0.3% 0.4%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0.1% 100%  
115 0.7% 99.9%  
116 3% 99.1%  
117 6% 96%  
118 10% 91%  
119 14% 81%  
120 18% 66%  
121 10% 48% Median
122 7% 38%  
123 5% 31% Last Result
124 8% 26%  
125 6% 18%  
126 6% 12%  
127 3% 6%  
128 2% 3%  
129 0.4% 0.6%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0.4% 99.9%  
112 2% 99.6%  
113 5% 98%  
114 11% 93%  
115 15% 82%  
116 13% 66%  
117 15% 54% Median
118 9% 39%  
119 5% 30%  
120 7% 25%  
121 5% 18% Last Result
122 6% 13%  
123 5% 7%  
124 2% 3%  
125 0.4% 0.5%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0.4% 100%  
105 1.1% 99.5%  
106 2% 98%  
107 7% 97%  
108 9% 90%  
109 4% 81%  
110 4% 77%  
111 2% 73%  
112 1.2% 72%  
113 0.3% 71%  
114 1.0% 70%  
115 2% 69%  
116 5% 67% Last Result
117 10% 62%  
118 9% 52%  
119 21% 43%  
120 11% 21% Median
121 7% 10%  
122 2% 3%  
123 0.9% 1.1%  
124 0.2% 0.2%  
125 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.7% 99.9%  
95 2% 99.3%  
96 5% 97%  
97 14% 92%  
98 15% 77%  
99 15% 62% Median
100 11% 46%  
101 10% 35% Last Result
102 7% 25%  
103 8% 19%  
104 6% 11%  
105 2% 4%  
106 2% 2%  
107 0.3% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations