Opinion Poll by Inizio for Aftonbladet, 26 October–6 November 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 29.4% | 28.2–30.7% | 27.9–31.1% | 27.6–31.4% | 27.0–32.0% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 18.9% | 17.9–20.0% | 17.6–20.4% | 17.3–20.6% | 16.8–21.2% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 18.2% | 17.2–19.3% | 16.9–19.6% | 16.6–19.9% | 16.2–20.4% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.1–10.7% | 8.8–10.9% | 8.6–11.2% | 8.3–11.6% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.1–8.6% | 6.9–8.8% | 6.8–9.0% | 6.4–9.4% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.3–6.6% | 5.1–6.8% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.7–7.3% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.0–5.2% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.3–4.4% | 3.2–4.5% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–5.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 108 | 103–115 | 101–117 | 99–118 | 97–120 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 70 | 66–75 | 64–77 | 63–78 | 61–81 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 67 | 63–73 | 62–74 | 61–76 | 59–77 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 37 | 33–40 | 32–41 | 31–42 | 30–44 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 29 | 26–32 | 25–33 | 25–33 | 23–35 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 22 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 18–26 | 17–28 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 15 | 0–17 | 0–18 | 0–18 | 0–19 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0–16 | 0–17 | 0–17 | 0–18 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 99 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 100 | 1.3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 101 | 2% | 96% | |
| 102 | 3% | 94% | |
| 103 | 4% | 91% | |
| 104 | 7% | 87% | |
| 105 | 7% | 80% | |
| 106 | 8% | 73% | |
| 107 | 5% | 65% | |
| 108 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 109 | 7% | 46% | |
| 110 | 6% | 39% | |
| 111 | 8% | 33% | |
| 112 | 7% | 25% | |
| 113 | 3% | 17% | |
| 114 | 4% | 14% | |
| 115 | 3% | 11% | |
| 116 | 2% | 7% | |
| 117 | 2% | 5% | |
| 118 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 119 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 63 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 64 | 2% | 97% | |
| 65 | 4% | 95% | |
| 66 | 5% | 90% | |
| 67 | 6% | 85% | |
| 68 | 8% | 79% | |
| 69 | 9% | 71% | |
| 70 | 14% | 62% | Median |
| 71 | 14% | 48% | |
| 72 | 10% | 34% | |
| 73 | 6% | 24% | |
| 74 | 7% | 18% | |
| 75 | 3% | 11% | |
| 76 | 3% | 8% | |
| 77 | 2% | 6% | |
| 78 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 1.5% | 99.1% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 3% | 95% | |
| 63 | 4% | 92% | |
| 64 | 7% | 88% | |
| 65 | 7% | 81% | |
| 66 | 9% | 74% | |
| 67 | 17% | 65% | Median |
| 68 | 10% | 48% | |
| 69 | 7% | 38% | |
| 70 | 9% | 31% | Last Result |
| 71 | 6% | 22% | |
| 72 | 4% | 16% | |
| 73 | 4% | 12% | |
| 74 | 4% | 8% | |
| 75 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 3% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 32 | 3% | 96% | |
| 33 | 5% | 93% | |
| 34 | 8% | 88% | |
| 35 | 9% | 80% | |
| 36 | 14% | 71% | |
| 37 | 14% | 57% | Median |
| 38 | 22% | 42% | |
| 39 | 8% | 21% | |
| 40 | 5% | 12% | |
| 41 | 5% | 8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 25 | 4% | 98% | |
| 26 | 11% | 94% | |
| 27 | 13% | 83% | |
| 28 | 15% | 70% | Last Result |
| 29 | 22% | 55% | Median |
| 30 | 14% | 33% | |
| 31 | 7% | 19% | |
| 32 | 7% | 12% | |
| 33 | 4% | 6% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 19 | 5% | 96% | |
| 20 | 12% | 92% | |
| 21 | 22% | 79% | |
| 22 | 25% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 23 | 7% | 33% | |
| 24 | 10% | 26% | |
| 25 | 9% | 16% | |
| 26 | 5% | 6% | |
| 27 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 58% | |
| 2 | 0% | 58% | |
| 3 | 0% | 58% | |
| 4 | 0% | 58% | |
| 5 | 0% | 58% | |
| 6 | 0% | 58% | |
| 7 | 0% | 58% | |
| 8 | 0% | 58% | |
| 9 | 0% | 58% | |
| 10 | 0% | 58% | |
| 11 | 0% | 58% | |
| 12 | 0% | 58% | |
| 13 | 0% | 58% | |
| 14 | 2% | 58% | |
| 15 | 27% | 56% | Median |
| 16 | 15% | 29% | |
| 17 | 9% | 14% | |
| 18 | 4% | 6% | |
| 19 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 63% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 37% | |
| 2 | 0% | 37% | |
| 3 | 0% | 37% | |
| 4 | 0% | 37% | |
| 5 | 0% | 37% | |
| 6 | 0% | 37% | |
| 7 | 0% | 37% | |
| 8 | 0% | 37% | |
| 9 | 0% | 37% | |
| 10 | 0% | 37% | |
| 11 | 0% | 37% | |
| 12 | 0% | 37% | |
| 13 | 0% | 37% | |
| 14 | 3% | 37% | |
| 15 | 16% | 33% | |
| 16 | 12% | 17% | Last Result |
| 17 | 3% | 5% | |
| 18 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 213 | 100% | 202–224 | 200–226 | 199–227 | 196–230 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 175 | 63% | 168–185 | 166–187 | 163–190 | 161–192 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 160 | 0.8% | 152–169 | 149–171 | 148–172 | 145–176 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 142 | 0% | 134–152 | 132–154 | 131–157 | 129–160 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 138 | 0% | 131–145 | 129–147 | 127–150 | 124–152 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 137 | 0% | 131–145 | 129–147 | 127–149 | 125–152 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 136 | 0% | 126–145 | 124–146 | 122–147 | 119–150 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 127 | 0% | 119–134 | 117–137 | 116–137 | 113–140 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 113 | 0% | 106–124 | 104–127 | 103–128 | 101–131 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 114 | 0% | 104–123 | 102–124 | 101–126 | 98–128 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 105 | 0% | 98–111 | 96–112 | 95–114 | 93–117 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 197 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 198 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 199 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 200 | 2% | 97% | |
| 201 | 2% | 95% | Last Result |
| 202 | 3% | 93% | |
| 203 | 4% | 90% | |
| 204 | 2% | 86% | |
| 205 | 3% | 84% | |
| 206 | 2% | 82% | |
| 207 | 2% | 79% | |
| 208 | 4% | 78% | |
| 209 | 5% | 74% | |
| 210 | 4% | 69% | |
| 211 | 5% | 65% | |
| 212 | 5% | 60% | Median |
| 213 | 13% | 55% | |
| 214 | 4% | 43% | |
| 215 | 5% | 39% | |
| 216 | 4% | 34% | |
| 217 | 3% | 30% | |
| 218 | 4% | 27% | |
| 219 | 1.3% | 23% | |
| 220 | 4% | 21% | |
| 221 | 3% | 17% | |
| 222 | 3% | 14% | |
| 223 | 1.0% | 12% | |
| 224 | 4% | 11% | |
| 225 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 226 | 3% | 6% | |
| 227 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 228 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 229 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 230 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 231 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 232 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 163 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 164 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 165 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 166 | 3% | 96% | |
| 167 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 168 | 2% | 91% | |
| 169 | 6% | 89% | |
| 170 | 3% | 83% | Last Result |
| 171 | 3% | 80% | |
| 172 | 5% | 77% | |
| 173 | 8% | 72% | |
| 174 | 2% | 65% | |
| 175 | 14% | 63% | Median, Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 49% | |
| 177 | 3% | 45% | |
| 178 | 6% | 42% | |
| 179 | 5% | 36% | |
| 180 | 5% | 31% | |
| 181 | 5% | 27% | |
| 182 | 2% | 22% | |
| 183 | 6% | 19% | |
| 184 | 2% | 13% | |
| 185 | 2% | 12% | |
| 186 | 4% | 9% | |
| 187 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 188 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 190 | 2% | 3% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 192 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 146 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 147 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 148 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 149 | 3% | 97% | |
| 150 | 3% | 95% | |
| 151 | 1.1% | 92% | |
| 152 | 5% | 91% | |
| 153 | 3% | 87% | |
| 154 | 3% | 83% | Last Result |
| 155 | 2% | 80% | |
| 156 | 4% | 78% | |
| 157 | 4% | 74% | |
| 158 | 5% | 70% | |
| 159 | 14% | 65% | Median |
| 160 | 5% | 50% | |
| 161 | 6% | 45% | |
| 162 | 7% | 39% | |
| 163 | 4% | 33% | |
| 164 | 4% | 29% | |
| 165 | 4% | 25% | |
| 166 | 3% | 21% | |
| 167 | 5% | 18% | |
| 168 | 2% | 13% | |
| 169 | 2% | 11% | |
| 170 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 171 | 4% | 8% | |
| 172 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 173 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 175 | 0.3% | 0.8% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 130 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 131 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 132 | 3% | 97% | |
| 133 | 3% | 95% | |
| 134 | 2% | 92% | |
| 135 | 3% | 90% | |
| 136 | 4% | 87% | |
| 137 | 13% | 83% | Median |
| 138 | 3% | 70% | |
| 139 | 3% | 68% | |
| 140 | 7% | 65% | |
| 141 | 4% | 57% | |
| 142 | 4% | 53% | |
| 143 | 2% | 49% | |
| 144 | 5% | 47% | Last Result |
| 145 | 4% | 42% | |
| 146 | 4% | 38% | |
| 147 | 8% | 34% | |
| 148 | 4% | 26% | |
| 149 | 3% | 22% | |
| 150 | 4% | 19% | |
| 151 | 4% | 15% | |
| 152 | 2% | 11% | |
| 153 | 2% | 9% | |
| 154 | 2% | 7% | |
| 155 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 156 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 157 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 158 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 126 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 127 | 2% | 98% | |
| 128 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 129 | 2% | 95% | |
| 130 | 2% | 93% | |
| 131 | 3% | 90% | |
| 132 | 2% | 87% | Last Result |
| 133 | 6% | 85% | |
| 134 | 4% | 79% | |
| 135 | 5% | 76% | |
| 136 | 6% | 70% | |
| 137 | 14% | 65% | Median |
| 138 | 7% | 51% | |
| 139 | 4% | 43% | |
| 140 | 7% | 39% | |
| 141 | 5% | 32% | |
| 142 | 4% | 27% | |
| 143 | 3% | 23% | |
| 144 | 4% | 20% | |
| 145 | 7% | 15% | |
| 146 | 3% | 8% | |
| 147 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 148 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 149 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 150 | 2% | 3% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 126 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 127 | 2% | 98% | |
| 128 | 0.8% | 97% | Last Result |
| 129 | 2% | 96% | |
| 130 | 2% | 94% | |
| 131 | 6% | 93% | |
| 132 | 7% | 86% | |
| 133 | 7% | 80% | |
| 134 | 5% | 73% | |
| 135 | 5% | 68% | |
| 136 | 8% | 63% | |
| 137 | 14% | 55% | Median |
| 138 | 5% | 41% | |
| 139 | 4% | 36% | |
| 140 | 8% | 32% | |
| 141 | 4% | 24% | |
| 142 | 3% | 20% | |
| 143 | 2% | 17% | |
| 144 | 4% | 15% | |
| 145 | 3% | 11% | |
| 146 | 2% | 8% | |
| 147 | 2% | 6% | |
| 148 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 149 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 150 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 120 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 122 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 123 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 124 | 2% | 96% | |
| 125 | 2% | 94% | |
| 126 | 3% | 92% | |
| 127 | 4% | 90% | |
| 128 | 3% | 86% | |
| 129 | 3% | 83% | |
| 130 | 3% | 80% | |
| 131 | 4% | 77% | |
| 132 | 4% | 73% | |
| 133 | 5% | 68% | |
| 134 | 7% | 64% | |
| 135 | 5% | 57% | |
| 136 | 5% | 52% | |
| 137 | 6% | 47% | |
| 138 | 3% | 41% | |
| 139 | 4% | 38% | |
| 140 | 5% | 34% | |
| 141 | 2% | 29% | Median |
| 142 | 10% | 27% | |
| 143 | 2% | 17% | Last Result |
| 144 | 4% | 14% | |
| 145 | 4% | 11% | |
| 146 | 3% | 7% | |
| 147 | 2% | 4% | |
| 148 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 115 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 116 | 2% | 98% | |
| 117 | 2% | 96% | |
| 118 | 2% | 94% | |
| 119 | 5% | 92% | |
| 120 | 3% | 86% | |
| 121 | 3% | 84% | |
| 122 | 5% | 80% | |
| 123 | 4% | 76% | Last Result |
| 124 | 5% | 72% | |
| 125 | 6% | 66% | |
| 126 | 5% | 60% | Median |
| 127 | 14% | 55% | |
| 128 | 8% | 41% | |
| 129 | 4% | 33% | |
| 130 | 6% | 29% | |
| 131 | 4% | 23% | |
| 132 | 4% | 20% | |
| 133 | 4% | 16% | |
| 134 | 4% | 12% | |
| 135 | 2% | 8% | |
| 136 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 137 | 3% | 5% | |
| 138 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 139 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 102 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 103 | 2% | 98% | |
| 104 | 3% | 96% | |
| 105 | 3% | 94% | |
| 106 | 2% | 91% | |
| 107 | 2% | 88% | |
| 108 | 13% | 87% | Median |
| 109 | 5% | 74% | |
| 110 | 5% | 69% | |
| 111 | 6% | 64% | |
| 112 | 6% | 57% | |
| 113 | 2% | 51% | |
| 114 | 4% | 49% | |
| 115 | 4% | 44% | |
| 116 | 3% | 40% | Last Result |
| 117 | 4% | 37% | |
| 118 | 4% | 33% | |
| 119 | 3% | 29% | |
| 120 | 5% | 26% | |
| 121 | 6% | 22% | |
| 122 | 3% | 16% | |
| 123 | 2% | 13% | |
| 124 | 2% | 11% | |
| 125 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 126 | 2% | 7% | |
| 127 | 2% | 5% | |
| 128 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 129 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 131 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 98 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 101 | 2% | 98% | |
| 102 | 2% | 96% | |
| 103 | 3% | 94% | |
| 104 | 3% | 92% | |
| 105 | 3% | 88% | |
| 106 | 4% | 85% | |
| 107 | 4% | 81% | |
| 108 | 3% | 77% | |
| 109 | 4% | 74% | |
| 110 | 3% | 70% | |
| 111 | 5% | 67% | |
| 112 | 5% | 62% | |
| 113 | 3% | 57% | |
| 114 | 5% | 53% | |
| 115 | 5% | 48% | |
| 116 | 4% | 43% | |
| 117 | 5% | 40% | |
| 118 | 3% | 35% | |
| 119 | 6% | 32% | Median |
| 120 | 10% | 26% | |
| 121 | 4% | 17% | Last Result |
| 122 | 1.4% | 12% | |
| 123 | 5% | 11% | |
| 124 | 3% | 6% | |
| 125 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 126 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 127 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 93 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 95 | 2% | 98% | |
| 96 | 2% | 96% | |
| 97 | 3% | 94% | |
| 98 | 3% | 91% | |
| 99 | 5% | 88% | |
| 100 | 4% | 83% | |
| 101 | 6% | 79% | Last Result |
| 102 | 6% | 74% | |
| 103 | 6% | 68% | |
| 104 | 8% | 62% | Median |
| 105 | 15% | 53% | |
| 106 | 8% | 39% | |
| 107 | 6% | 31% | |
| 108 | 4% | 25% | |
| 109 | 6% | 21% | |
| 110 | 2% | 15% | |
| 111 | 4% | 13% | |
| 112 | 5% | 9% | |
| 113 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 114 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 115 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Inizio
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 26 October–6 November 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 2187
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.79%