Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 15 October–11 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 29.8% 29.0–30.7% 28.7–30.9% 28.5–31.1% 28.2–31.5%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 19.2% 18.5–19.9% 18.3–20.1% 18.1–20.3% 17.8–20.7%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 19.2% 18.5–19.9% 18.3–20.1% 18.1–20.3% 17.8–20.7%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 8.9% 8.4–9.4% 8.2–9.6% 8.1–9.7% 7.9–10.0%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 7.9% 7.4–8.4% 7.3–8.6% 7.2–8.7% 7.0–8.9%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 5.9% 5.5–6.4% 5.4–6.5% 5.3–6.6% 5.1–6.8%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 4.3% 3.9–4.7% 3.8–4.8% 3.8–4.9% 3.6–5.1%
Liberalerna 5.5% 3.7% 3.4–4.1% 3.3–4.2% 3.2–4.3% 3.1–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 109 105–113 104–115 103–116 101–119
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 71 68–73 66–75 65–76 64–77
Sverigedemokraterna 62 71 68–74 66–75 65–76 64–77
Centerpartiet 31 33 30–35 30–35 30–36 29–37
Vänsterpartiet 28 29 27–31 27–31 26–32 25–33
Kristdemokraterna 22 22 20–23 20–24 19–24 19–25
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 16 0–17 0–18 0–18 0–18
Liberalerna 20 0 0–14 0–15 0–15 0–16

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0.1% 100%  
100 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
101 0.6% 99.6%  
102 0.9% 99.0%  
103 1.1% 98%  
104 4% 97%  
105 4% 93%  
106 8% 88%  
107 9% 80%  
108 13% 71%  
109 16% 58% Median
110 10% 42%  
111 10% 33%  
112 9% 23%  
113 4% 14%  
114 2% 9%  
115 4% 7%  
116 0.8% 3%  
117 1.3% 2%  
118 0.1% 0.8%  
119 0.5% 0.6%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.7% 99.6%  
65 2% 99.0%  
66 2% 97%  
67 5% 95%  
68 9% 90%  
69 15% 81%  
70 15% 65% Last Result
71 21% 50% Median
72 12% 29%  
73 7% 17%  
74 4% 9%  
75 2% 5%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.7% 1.2%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100% Last Result
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.7%  
65 2% 99.4%  
66 3% 97%  
67 4% 95%  
68 14% 90%  
69 12% 77%  
70 13% 65%  
71 21% 52% Median
72 11% 31%  
73 7% 20%  
74 8% 13%  
75 2% 5%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.8% 1.2%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.5%  
30 8% 98%  
31 13% 90% Last Result
32 26% 77%  
33 24% 51% Median
34 14% 28%  
35 10% 14%  
36 3% 4%  
37 1.2% 1.4%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.9%  
26 3% 99.3%  
27 16% 96%  
28 16% 81% Last Result
29 30% 64% Median
30 15% 34%  
31 15% 19%  
32 3% 4%  
33 1.0% 1.2%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 4% 99.6%  
20 17% 95%  
21 23% 79%  
22 29% 55% Last Result, Median
23 17% 26%  
24 8% 9%  
25 1.1% 1.4%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 0% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 0% 88%  
4 0% 88%  
5 0% 88%  
6 0% 88%  
7 0% 88%  
8 0% 88%  
9 0% 88%  
10 0% 88%  
11 0% 88%  
12 0% 88%  
13 0% 88%  
14 0.7% 88%  
15 35% 88%  
16 32% 53% Last Result, Median
17 15% 21%  
18 6% 6%  
19 0.4% 0.5%  
20 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Median
1 0% 10%  
2 0% 10%  
3 0% 10%  
4 0% 10%  
5 0% 10%  
6 0% 10%  
7 0% 10%  
8 0% 10%  
9 0% 10%  
10 0% 10%  
11 0% 10%  
12 0% 10%  
13 0% 10%  
14 1.2% 10%  
15 8% 9%  
16 1.2% 1.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 212 100% 207–218 204–222 201–223 199–227
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 179 90% 175–185 172–188 170–190 168–192
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna 154 163 0.7% 158–167 155–170 154–173 152–175
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 153 0% 146–157 143–158 141–159 136–160
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 132 141 0% 136–145 135–148 133–150 131–152
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 138 0% 134–143 132–145 131–146 128–149
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 143 125 0% 122–133 121–135 120–137 118–142
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 123 125 0% 121–129 119–131 118–133 115–135
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 124 0% 116–128 114–129 111–130 107–131
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 104 0% 101–111 100–115 99–116 97–119
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 103 0% 100–107 98–108 97–110 95–112

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
197 0.1% 100%  
198 0.2% 99.9%  
199 0.5% 99.7%  
200 1.0% 99.2%  
201 0.9% 98% Last Result
202 1.1% 97%  
203 0.9% 96%  
204 2% 95%  
205 2% 93%  
206 1.3% 92%  
207 2% 90%  
208 4% 88%  
209 6% 85%  
210 9% 78%  
211 13% 69%  
212 10% 56%  
213 15% 46% Median
214 6% 30%  
215 7% 25%  
216 4% 18%  
217 3% 13%  
218 0.9% 11%  
219 0.8% 10%  
220 0.9% 9%  
221 0.6% 8%  
222 3% 7%  
223 2% 4%  
224 0.6% 2%  
225 0.9% 2%  
226 0.3% 1.0%  
227 0.5% 0.6%  
228 0.1% 0.2%  
229 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
166 0.1% 100%  
167 0.3% 99.9%  
168 0.5% 99.6%  
169 0.7% 99.1%  
170 1.5% 98% Last Result
171 0.7% 97%  
172 2% 96%  
173 1.5% 94%  
174 3% 93%  
175 5% 90% Majority
176 4% 85%  
177 8% 81%  
178 10% 74%  
179 15% 63%  
180 16% 49% Median
181 6% 33%  
182 6% 27%  
183 4% 20%  
184 5% 16%  
185 3% 11%  
186 1.3% 9%  
187 1.4% 7%  
188 1.3% 6%  
189 1.0% 5%  
190 2% 4%  
191 0.7% 2%  
192 0.5% 0.8%  
193 0.2% 0.3%  
194 0.1% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0% 100%  
150 0.2% 99.9%  
151 0.2% 99.7%  
152 0.3% 99.6%  
153 0.8% 99.2%  
154 1.1% 98% Last Result
155 3% 97%  
156 2% 95%  
157 2% 92%  
158 4% 91%  
159 4% 87%  
160 13% 83%  
161 6% 70%  
162 14% 64%  
163 18% 50%  
164 6% 33% Median
165 4% 27%  
166 10% 22%  
167 3% 13%  
168 2% 10%  
169 1.4% 8%  
170 2% 6%  
171 0.6% 5%  
172 1.3% 4%  
173 2% 3%  
174 0.4% 1.1%  
175 0.6% 0.7% Majority
176 0.1% 0.2%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0.1% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0.5% 99.9%  
137 0.3% 99.4%  
138 0.2% 99.1%  
139 0.3% 98.9%  
140 0.7% 98.6%  
141 0.8% 98%  
142 1.4% 97%  
143 1.1% 96%  
144 3% 95% Last Result
145 2% 92%  
146 2% 90%  
147 4% 88%  
148 2% 84%  
149 3% 82%  
150 5% 79%  
151 8% 74%  
152 7% 66%  
153 9% 59%  
154 18% 49% Median
155 10% 31%  
156 9% 21%  
157 7% 13%  
158 2% 6%  
159 2% 3%  
160 1.0% 1.4%  
161 0.3% 0.4%  
162 0.1% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0% 100%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0.3% 99.9%  
131 0.3% 99.6%  
132 0.8% 99.3% Last Result
133 1.1% 98%  
134 1.5% 97%  
135 3% 96%  
136 4% 93%  
137 6% 89%  
138 7% 84%  
139 10% 76%  
140 11% 66%  
141 13% 55%  
142 12% 42% Median
143 8% 29%  
144 6% 21%  
145 6% 15%  
146 2% 9%  
147 2% 8%  
148 2% 6%  
149 0.9% 4%  
150 1.0% 3%  
151 2% 2%  
152 0.3% 0.5%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
129 0.7% 99.2%  
130 0.3% 98.6%  
131 0.9% 98%  
132 4% 97%  
133 2% 93%  
134 3% 91%  
135 9% 88%  
136 11% 79%  
137 10% 68%  
138 12% 58% Median
139 11% 46%  
140 13% 34%  
141 6% 21%  
142 4% 15%  
143 3% 11%  
144 3% 8%  
145 2% 5%  
146 2% 4%  
147 0.5% 2%  
148 0.9% 2%  
149 0.4% 0.7%  
150 0.3% 0.3%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0.1% 100%  
118 0.6% 99.8%  
119 0.6% 99.2%  
120 2% 98.6%  
121 5% 97%  
122 6% 92%  
123 8% 86%  
124 14% 78%  
125 16% 64%  
126 15% 48% Median
127 6% 33%  
128 5% 27%  
129 4% 22%  
130 3% 18%  
131 2% 15%  
132 2% 13%  
133 2% 11%  
134 3% 8%  
135 1.5% 6%  
136 0.8% 5%  
137 1.5% 4%  
138 0.8% 2%  
139 0.4% 1.4%  
140 0.2% 1.0%  
141 0.2% 0.9%  
142 0.5% 0.6%  
143 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0.2% 100%  
115 0.6% 99.8%  
116 0.7% 99.1%  
117 0.7% 98%  
118 2% 98%  
119 3% 96%  
120 3% 93%  
121 5% 90%  
122 7% 85%  
123 9% 78% Last Result
124 14% 68%  
125 16% 54%  
126 15% 38% Median
127 6% 23%  
128 5% 17%  
129 3% 12%  
130 3% 8%  
131 2% 5%  
132 0.8% 4%  
133 2% 3%  
134 0.6% 1.3%  
135 0.4% 0.8%  
136 0.2% 0.4%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0.1% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0.5% 99.9%  
108 0.4% 99.4%  
109 0.3% 99.0%  
110 0.8% 98.7%  
111 0.7% 98%  
112 0.7% 97%  
113 1.4% 96%  
114 1.1% 95%  
115 4% 94%  
116 0.5% 90% Last Result
117 2% 90%  
118 0.9% 88%  
119 4% 87%  
120 2% 83%  
121 6% 81%  
122 5% 75%  
123 14% 70%  
124 6% 56%  
125 19% 49% Median
126 5% 30%  
127 14% 25%  
128 5% 11%  
129 3% 6%  
130 2% 3%  
131 0.7% 1.2%  
132 0.4% 0.5%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 0.3% 99.8%  
98 2% 99.5%  
99 3% 98%  
100 5% 95%  
101 12% 90%  
102 11% 78%  
103 13% 68%  
104 18% 55% Median
105 9% 37%  
106 6% 28%  
107 4% 22%  
108 3% 18%  
109 2% 15%  
110 2% 12%  
111 2% 11%  
112 1.4% 9%  
113 0.9% 7%  
114 0.9% 7%  
115 2% 6%  
116 1.5% 3%  
117 0.7% 2%  
118 0.4% 1.3%  
119 0.6% 1.0%  
120 0.2% 0.4%  
121 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.2% 99.8%  
95 1.0% 99.6%  
96 1.0% 98.5%  
97 2% 98%  
98 2% 96%  
99 4% 94%  
100 7% 90%  
101 13% 83% Last Result
102 11% 70%  
103 14% 59%  
104 19% 45% Median
105 9% 26%  
106 6% 18%  
107 4% 11%  
108 3% 7%  
109 2% 5%  
110 0.8% 3%  
111 1.1% 2%  
112 0.5% 0.8%  
113 0.2% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations