Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 5–15 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 29.0% 28.4–29.6% 28.2–29.8% 28.0–29.9% 27.8–30.2%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 19.3% 18.8–19.8% 18.6–20.0% 18.5–20.1% 18.2–20.4%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 18.1% 17.6–18.6% 17.4–18.8% 17.3–18.9% 17.1–19.1%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 9.0% 8.6–9.4% 8.5–9.5% 8.4–9.6% 8.2–9.8%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 7.6% 7.2–8.0% 7.1–8.1% 7.1–8.2% 6.9–8.3%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 6.7% 6.4–7.0% 6.3–7.1% 6.2–7.2% 6.1–7.4%
Liberalerna 5.5% 4.9% 4.6–5.2% 4.5–5.3% 4.5–5.3% 4.3–5.5%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 4.1% 3.8–4.4% 3.8–4.5% 3.7–4.5% 3.6–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 103 101–108 100–108 99–109 98–111
Sverigedemokraterna 62 69 67–72 66–72 66–73 65–74
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 65 62–67 62–68 61–69 61–70
Centerpartiet 31 32 31–34 30–34 30–35 29–36
Vänsterpartiet 28 27 26–29 26–29 25–30 25–30
Kristdemokraterna 22 24 23–25 22–26 22–26 22–27
Liberalerna 20 18 16–19 16–19 16–19 16–20
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 15 0–15 0–16 0–16 0–16

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.5% 99.9%  
99 4% 99.5%  
100 5% 96% Last Result
101 9% 91%  
102 19% 82%  
103 13% 63% Median
104 14% 49%  
105 7% 35%  
106 13% 28%  
107 4% 15%  
108 6% 10%  
109 3% 5%  
110 1.1% 2%  
111 0.3% 0.6%  
112 0.3% 0.3%  
113 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0.3% 100%  
65 2% 99.7%  
66 6% 98%  
67 15% 92%  
68 20% 76%  
69 17% 57% Median
70 13% 40%  
71 10% 27%  
72 13% 17%  
73 2% 4%  
74 1.4% 2%  
75 0.3% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.3% 100%  
61 4% 99.7%  
62 6% 96%  
63 13% 90%  
64 25% 77%  
65 18% 51% Median
66 10% 33%  
67 18% 24%  
68 3% 6%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.3% 1.5% Last Result
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.8% 100%  
30 5% 99.2%  
31 24% 94% Last Result
32 28% 69% Median
33 30% 42%  
34 8% 11%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.7% 0.7%  
37 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100%  
25 4% 99.6%  
26 22% 96%  
27 35% 74% Median
28 26% 39% Last Result
29 10% 12%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.4% 100%  
22 7% 99.6% Last Result
23 25% 93%  
24 34% 68% Median
25 26% 34%  
26 7% 8%  
27 0.7% 0.8%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 11% 99.7%  
17 33% 88%  
18 45% 55% Median
19 9% 11%  
20 2% 2% Last Result
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100%  
1 0% 69%  
2 0% 69%  
3 0% 69%  
4 0% 69%  
5 0% 69%  
6 0% 69%  
7 0% 69%  
8 0% 69%  
9 0% 69%  
10 0% 69%  
11 0% 69%  
12 0% 69%  
13 0% 69%  
14 18% 69%  
15 42% 51% Median
16 9% 9% Last Result
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 199 100% 196–208 195–209 195–209 193–211
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 168 10% 164–174 164–175 163–176 162–178
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna 154 157 0% 154–164 153–164 153–165 151–167
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 143 0% 134–146 134–147 133–147 131–148
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 143 138 0% 135–143 134–144 134–145 132–147
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 132 133 0% 130–139 130–139 129–140 128–142
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 130 0% 127–136 127–137 126–138 125–139
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 123 121 0% 118–125 117–126 116–127 115–129
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 114 0% 111–118 111–119 110–121 109–122
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 116 0% 106–119 106–120 105–120 103–121
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 96 0% 94–100 93–101 93–102 92–104

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
192 0.1% 100%  
193 0.5% 99.9%  
194 1.4% 99.3%  
195 3% 98%  
196 8% 95%  
197 14% 87%  
198 12% 72%  
199 11% 60%  
200 11% 49% Median
201 6% 38% Last Result
202 1.0% 32%  
203 2% 31%  
204 2% 30%  
205 3% 28%  
206 11% 25%  
207 3% 14%  
208 5% 11%  
209 3% 5%  
210 1.1% 2%  
211 0.7% 0.8%  
212 0.1% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
161 0.3% 100%  
162 2% 99.6%  
163 2% 98%  
164 8% 96%  
165 8% 88%  
166 18% 80%  
167 10% 62%  
168 15% 52% Median
169 4% 37%  
170 3% 33% Last Result
171 3% 30%  
172 2% 27%  
173 12% 25%  
174 4% 13%  
175 5% 10% Majority
176 3% 5%  
177 0.8% 2%  
178 0.7% 0.8%  
179 0.1% 0.1%  
180 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0.1% 100%  
151 0.7% 99.9%  
152 1.1% 99.2%  
153 6% 98%  
154 8% 92% Last Result
155 12% 84%  
156 20% 72%  
157 9% 51%  
158 6% 43% Median
159 6% 36%  
160 3% 31%  
161 5% 28%  
162 4% 23%  
163 4% 19%  
164 12% 15%  
165 2% 4%  
166 1.2% 2%  
167 0.3% 0.5%  
168 0.2% 0.2%  
169 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0.1% 100%  
131 0.6% 99.9%  
132 1.4% 99.2%  
133 3% 98%  
134 11% 95%  
135 4% 84%  
136 5% 80%  
137 3% 75%  
138 3% 73%  
139 0.7% 70%  
140 2% 69%  
141 3% 68%  
142 7% 65%  
143 14% 58%  
144 16% 44% Last Result
145 13% 28% Median
146 8% 14%  
147 5% 6%  
148 1.0% 1.3%  
149 0.3% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0.1% 100%  
132 0.5% 99.9%  
133 2% 99.4%  
134 4% 98%  
135 9% 94%  
136 15% 85%  
137 17% 70%  
138 10% 52%  
139 9% 42% Median
140 5% 33%  
141 6% 29%  
142 4% 23%  
143 11% 19% Last Result
144 4% 9%  
145 2% 4%  
146 1.1% 2%  
147 0.5% 0.8%  
148 0.3% 0.3%  
149 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0.3% 100%  
128 0.9% 99.7%  
129 3% 98.7%  
130 8% 96%  
131 12% 88%  
132 19% 76% Last Result
133 13% 57%  
134 7% 44% Median
135 7% 37%  
136 4% 30%  
137 4% 25%  
138 6% 21%  
139 10% 15%  
140 3% 5%  
141 2% 2%  
142 0.5% 0.7%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0.2% 100%  
125 0.7% 99.7%  
126 4% 99.1%  
127 6% 95%  
128 14% 90% Last Result
129 11% 75%  
130 20% 64% Median
131 8% 45%  
132 6% 36%  
133 4% 30%  
134 11% 26%  
135 4% 15%  
136 5% 11%  
137 3% 6%  
138 3% 3%  
139 0.3% 0.7%  
140 0.3% 0.4%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0.1% 100%  
115 0.6% 99.8%  
116 3% 99.3%  
117 5% 97%  
118 11% 91%  
119 16% 80%  
120 14% 64%  
121 14% 50% Median
122 6% 36%  
123 6% 30% Last Result
124 5% 23%  
125 10% 19%  
126 5% 9%  
127 3% 4%  
128 0.5% 1.2%  
129 0.7% 0.7%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0.1% 100%  
108 0.2% 99.9%  
109 1.2% 99.7%  
110 3% 98.6%  
111 8% 96%  
112 10% 88%  
113 20% 78%  
114 15% 57%  
115 10% 42% Median
116 6% 32%  
117 4% 26%  
118 14% 22%  
119 4% 9%  
120 2% 5%  
121 2% 3% Last Result
122 0.5% 0.8%  
123 0.2% 0.3%  
124 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0.2% 100%  
103 0.4% 99.8%  
104 1.3% 99.4%  
105 3% 98%  
106 12% 96%  
107 4% 84%  
108 6% 80%  
109 3% 74%  
110 1.1% 71%  
111 0.3% 70%  
112 0.4% 70%  
113 1.4% 69%  
114 2% 68%  
115 7% 65%  
116 9% 59% Last Result
117 18% 50%  
118 18% 32% Median
119 7% 14%  
120 5% 7%  
121 1.0% 1.4%  
122 0.3% 0.4%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.3% 100%  
92 2% 99.7%  
93 3% 98%  
94 9% 95%  
95 16% 86%  
96 20% 70%  
97 11% 49% Median
98 10% 38%  
99 5% 28%  
100 14% 23%  
101 5% 9% Last Result
102 2% 4%  
103 1.4% 2%  
104 0.6% 0.7%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations