Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 5–15 November 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti |
28.3% |
29.0% |
28.4–29.6% |
28.2–29.8% |
28.0–29.9% |
27.8–30.2% |
Sverigedemokraterna |
17.5% |
19.3% |
18.8–19.8% |
18.6–20.0% |
18.5–20.1% |
18.2–20.4% |
Moderata samlingspartiet |
19.8% |
18.1% |
17.6–18.6% |
17.4–18.8% |
17.3–18.9% |
17.1–19.1% |
Centerpartiet |
8.6% |
9.0% |
8.6–9.4% |
8.5–9.5% |
8.4–9.6% |
8.2–9.8% |
Vänsterpartiet |
8.0% |
7.6% |
7.2–8.0% |
7.1–8.1% |
7.1–8.2% |
6.9–8.3% |
Kristdemokraterna |
6.3% |
6.7% |
6.4–7.0% |
6.3–7.1% |
6.2–7.2% |
6.1–7.4% |
Liberalerna |
5.5% |
4.9% |
4.6–5.2% |
4.5–5.3% |
4.5–5.3% |
4.3–5.5% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna |
4.4% |
4.1% |
3.8–4.4% |
3.8–4.5% |
3.7–4.5% |
3.6–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
97 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
98 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
99 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
100 |
5% |
96% |
Last Result |
101 |
9% |
91% |
|
102 |
19% |
82% |
|
103 |
13% |
63% |
Median |
104 |
14% |
49% |
|
105 |
7% |
35% |
|
106 |
13% |
28% |
|
107 |
4% |
15% |
|
108 |
6% |
10% |
|
109 |
3% |
5% |
|
110 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
111 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
112 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
113 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
62 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
63 |
0% |
100% |
|
64 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
65 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
66 |
6% |
98% |
|
67 |
15% |
92% |
|
68 |
20% |
76% |
|
69 |
17% |
57% |
Median |
70 |
13% |
40% |
|
71 |
10% |
27% |
|
72 |
13% |
17% |
|
73 |
2% |
4% |
|
74 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
75 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
60 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
61 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
62 |
6% |
96% |
|
63 |
13% |
90% |
|
64 |
25% |
77% |
|
65 |
18% |
51% |
Median |
66 |
10% |
33% |
|
67 |
18% |
24% |
|
68 |
3% |
6% |
|
69 |
2% |
4% |
|
70 |
1.3% |
1.5% |
Last Result |
71 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
30 |
5% |
99.2% |
|
31 |
24% |
94% |
Last Result |
32 |
28% |
69% |
Median |
33 |
30% |
42% |
|
34 |
8% |
11% |
|
35 |
2% |
3% |
|
36 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
25 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
26 |
22% |
96% |
|
27 |
35% |
74% |
Median |
28 |
26% |
39% |
Last Result |
29 |
10% |
12% |
|
30 |
2% |
3% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
22 |
7% |
99.6% |
Last Result |
23 |
25% |
93% |
|
24 |
34% |
68% |
Median |
25 |
26% |
34% |
|
26 |
7% |
8% |
|
27 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
11% |
99.7% |
|
17 |
33% |
88% |
|
18 |
45% |
55% |
Median |
19 |
9% |
11% |
|
20 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
31% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
69% |
|
2 |
0% |
69% |
|
3 |
0% |
69% |
|
4 |
0% |
69% |
|
5 |
0% |
69% |
|
6 |
0% |
69% |
|
7 |
0% |
69% |
|
8 |
0% |
69% |
|
9 |
0% |
69% |
|
10 |
0% |
69% |
|
11 |
0% |
69% |
|
12 |
0% |
69% |
|
13 |
0% |
69% |
|
14 |
18% |
69% |
|
15 |
42% |
51% |
Median |
16 |
9% |
9% |
Last Result |
17 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet |
201 |
199 |
100% |
196–208 |
195–209 |
195–209 |
193–211 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet |
170 |
168 |
10% |
164–174 |
164–175 |
163–176 |
162–178 |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna |
154 |
157 |
0% |
154–164 |
153–164 |
153–165 |
151–167 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna |
144 |
143 |
0% |
134–146 |
134–147 |
133–147 |
131–148 |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna |
143 |
138 |
0% |
135–143 |
134–144 |
134–145 |
132–147 |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet |
132 |
133 |
0% |
130–139 |
130–139 |
129–140 |
128–142 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet |
128 |
130 |
0% |
127–136 |
127–137 |
126–138 |
125–139 |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna |
123 |
121 |
0% |
118–125 |
117–126 |
116–127 |
115–129 |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna |
121 |
114 |
0% |
111–118 |
111–119 |
110–121 |
109–122 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna |
116 |
116 |
0% |
106–119 |
106–120 |
105–120 |
103–121 |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet |
101 |
96 |
0% |
94–100 |
93–101 |
93–102 |
92–104 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
192 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
193 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
194 |
1.4% |
99.3% |
|
195 |
3% |
98% |
|
196 |
8% |
95% |
|
197 |
14% |
87% |
|
198 |
12% |
72% |
|
199 |
11% |
60% |
|
200 |
11% |
49% |
Median |
201 |
6% |
38% |
Last Result |
202 |
1.0% |
32% |
|
203 |
2% |
31% |
|
204 |
2% |
30% |
|
205 |
3% |
28% |
|
206 |
11% |
25% |
|
207 |
3% |
14% |
|
208 |
5% |
11% |
|
209 |
3% |
5% |
|
210 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
211 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
212 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
213 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
161 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
162 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
163 |
2% |
98% |
|
164 |
8% |
96% |
|
165 |
8% |
88% |
|
166 |
18% |
80% |
|
167 |
10% |
62% |
|
168 |
15% |
52% |
Median |
169 |
4% |
37% |
|
170 |
3% |
33% |
Last Result |
171 |
3% |
30% |
|
172 |
2% |
27% |
|
173 |
12% |
25% |
|
174 |
4% |
13% |
|
175 |
5% |
10% |
Majority |
176 |
3% |
5% |
|
177 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
178 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
179 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
180 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
150 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
151 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
152 |
1.1% |
99.2% |
|
153 |
6% |
98% |
|
154 |
8% |
92% |
Last Result |
155 |
12% |
84% |
|
156 |
20% |
72% |
|
157 |
9% |
51% |
|
158 |
6% |
43% |
Median |
159 |
6% |
36% |
|
160 |
3% |
31% |
|
161 |
5% |
28% |
|
162 |
4% |
23% |
|
163 |
4% |
19% |
|
164 |
12% |
15% |
|
165 |
2% |
4% |
|
166 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
167 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
168 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
130 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
131 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
132 |
1.4% |
99.2% |
|
133 |
3% |
98% |
|
134 |
11% |
95% |
|
135 |
4% |
84% |
|
136 |
5% |
80% |
|
137 |
3% |
75% |
|
138 |
3% |
73% |
|
139 |
0.7% |
70% |
|
140 |
2% |
69% |
|
141 |
3% |
68% |
|
142 |
7% |
65% |
|
143 |
14% |
58% |
|
144 |
16% |
44% |
Last Result |
145 |
13% |
28% |
Median |
146 |
8% |
14% |
|
147 |
5% |
6% |
|
148 |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
149 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
150 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
151 |
0% |
0% |
|
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
131 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
132 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
133 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
134 |
4% |
98% |
|
135 |
9% |
94% |
|
136 |
15% |
85% |
|
137 |
17% |
70% |
|
138 |
10% |
52% |
|
139 |
9% |
42% |
Median |
140 |
5% |
33% |
|
141 |
6% |
29% |
|
142 |
4% |
23% |
|
143 |
11% |
19% |
Last Result |
144 |
4% |
9% |
|
145 |
2% |
4% |
|
146 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
147 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
148 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
149 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
127 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
128 |
0.9% |
99.7% |
|
129 |
3% |
98.7% |
|
130 |
8% |
96% |
|
131 |
12% |
88% |
|
132 |
19% |
76% |
Last Result |
133 |
13% |
57% |
|
134 |
7% |
44% |
Median |
135 |
7% |
37% |
|
136 |
4% |
30% |
|
137 |
4% |
25% |
|
138 |
6% |
21% |
|
139 |
10% |
15% |
|
140 |
3% |
5% |
|
141 |
2% |
2% |
|
142 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
143 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
144 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
145 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
124 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
125 |
0.7% |
99.7% |
|
126 |
4% |
99.1% |
|
127 |
6% |
95% |
|
128 |
14% |
90% |
Last Result |
129 |
11% |
75% |
|
130 |
20% |
64% |
Median |
131 |
8% |
45% |
|
132 |
6% |
36% |
|
133 |
4% |
30% |
|
134 |
11% |
26% |
|
135 |
4% |
15% |
|
136 |
5% |
11% |
|
137 |
3% |
6% |
|
138 |
3% |
3% |
|
139 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
140 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
141 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
142 |
0% |
0% |
|
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
114 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
115 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
116 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
117 |
5% |
97% |
|
118 |
11% |
91% |
|
119 |
16% |
80% |
|
120 |
14% |
64% |
|
121 |
14% |
50% |
Median |
122 |
6% |
36% |
|
123 |
6% |
30% |
Last Result |
124 |
5% |
23% |
|
125 |
10% |
19% |
|
126 |
5% |
9% |
|
127 |
3% |
4% |
|
128 |
0.5% |
1.2% |
|
129 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
130 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
131 |
0% |
0% |
|
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
107 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
108 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
109 |
1.2% |
99.7% |
|
110 |
3% |
98.6% |
|
111 |
8% |
96% |
|
112 |
10% |
88% |
|
113 |
20% |
78% |
|
114 |
15% |
57% |
|
115 |
10% |
42% |
Median |
116 |
6% |
32% |
|
117 |
4% |
26% |
|
118 |
14% |
22% |
|
119 |
4% |
9% |
|
120 |
2% |
5% |
|
121 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
122 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
123 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
124 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
102 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
103 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
104 |
1.3% |
99.4% |
|
105 |
3% |
98% |
|
106 |
12% |
96% |
|
107 |
4% |
84% |
|
108 |
6% |
80% |
|
109 |
3% |
74% |
|
110 |
1.1% |
71% |
|
111 |
0.3% |
70% |
|
112 |
0.4% |
70% |
|
113 |
1.4% |
69% |
|
114 |
2% |
68% |
|
115 |
7% |
65% |
|
116 |
9% |
59% |
Last Result |
117 |
18% |
50% |
|
118 |
18% |
32% |
Median |
119 |
7% |
14% |
|
120 |
5% |
7% |
|
121 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
122 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
123 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
124 |
0% |
0% |
|
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
91 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
92 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
93 |
3% |
98% |
|
94 |
9% |
95% |
|
95 |
16% |
86% |
|
96 |
20% |
70% |
|
97 |
11% |
49% |
Median |
98 |
10% |
38% |
|
99 |
5% |
28% |
|
100 |
14% |
23% |
|
101 |
5% |
9% |
Last Result |
102 |
2% |
4% |
|
103 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
104 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
105 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
106 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Sifo
- Commissioner(s): Svenska Dagbladet
- Fieldwork period: 5–15 November 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 9324
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.66%