Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 8–19 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 28.3% 26.8–29.8% 26.4–30.2% 26.1–30.6% 25.4–31.3%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 20.0% 18.7–21.4% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.1% 17.5–22.7%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 18.2% 17.0–19.5% 16.6–19.9% 16.4–20.2% 15.8–20.9%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 10.1% 9.2–11.2% 8.9–11.5% 8.7–11.8% 8.3–12.3%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 8.2% 7.4–9.2% 7.1–9.5% 6.9–9.7% 6.6–10.2%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 5.3% 4.6–6.1% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.6% 4.0–7.0%
Liberalerna 5.5% 4.5% 3.9–5.2% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–6.0%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 4.1% 3.5–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 2.9–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 102 95–109 94–111 93–114 90–116
Sverigedemokraterna 62 72 67–79 65–81 64–82 62–85
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 66 61–71 59–72 58–74 56–76
Centerpartiet 31 37 33–40 32–42 31–42 29–45
Vänsterpartiet 28 30 26–33 25–34 25–35 23–37
Kristdemokraterna 22 20 17–22 16–23 15–24 0–26
Liberalerna 20 16 0–19 0–20 0–21 0–21
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 15 0–17 0–18 0–19 0–20

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.3% 99.8%  
90 0.3% 99.5%  
91 0.5% 99.3%  
92 0.6% 98.8%  
93 1.5% 98%  
94 2% 97%  
95 5% 95%  
96 5% 89%  
97 4% 84%  
98 5% 80%  
99 4% 75%  
100 8% 71% Last Result
101 10% 63%  
102 9% 53% Median
103 8% 44%  
104 6% 36%  
105 5% 30%  
106 4% 25%  
107 3% 21%  
108 6% 17%  
109 4% 11%  
110 2% 7%  
111 2% 5%  
112 0.7% 4%  
113 0.5% 3%  
114 0.6% 3%  
115 0.9% 2%  
116 0.7% 1.2%  
117 0.3% 0.5%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.8% 99.6% Last Result
63 0.9% 98.8%  
64 1.1% 98%  
65 3% 97%  
66 3% 94%  
67 5% 91%  
68 7% 87%  
69 9% 80%  
70 7% 70%  
71 7% 63%  
72 9% 56% Median
73 9% 47%  
74 9% 38%  
75 7% 29%  
76 5% 22%  
77 3% 17%  
78 3% 14%  
79 3% 11%  
80 3% 8%  
81 1.2% 5%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 0.4% 1.0%  
85 0.4% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.4% 99.7%  
57 0.8% 99.3%  
58 1.3% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 4% 95%  
61 5% 91%  
62 7% 87%  
63 6% 79%  
64 9% 73%  
65 8% 64%  
66 12% 56% Median
67 11% 45%  
68 8% 33%  
69 8% 25%  
70 5% 17% Last Result
71 4% 12%  
72 3% 8%  
73 2% 5%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.7% 2%  
76 0.4% 0.9%  
77 0.2% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.8%  
30 0.5% 99.3%  
31 2% 98.9% Last Result
32 4% 96%  
33 9% 93%  
34 8% 84%  
35 9% 76%  
36 15% 67%  
37 14% 52% Median
38 11% 37%  
39 8% 26%  
40 9% 18%  
41 3% 9%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.0% 2%  
44 0.5% 1.4%  
45 0.6% 0.9%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.8%  
24 2% 99.4%  
25 4% 98%  
26 5% 94%  
27 9% 89%  
28 13% 80% Last Result
29 12% 66%  
30 17% 54% Median
31 11% 38%  
32 10% 26%  
33 8% 16%  
34 5% 9%  
35 2% 4%  
36 1.1% 2%  
37 0.5% 1.0%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 0% 99.4%  
4 0% 99.4%  
5 0% 99.4%  
6 0% 99.4%  
7 0% 99.4%  
8 0% 99.4%  
9 0% 99.4%  
10 0% 99.4%  
11 0% 99.4%  
12 0% 99.4%  
13 0% 99.4%  
14 0.7% 99.4%  
15 2% 98.7%  
16 5% 97%  
17 7% 92%  
18 16% 85%  
19 15% 68%  
20 25% 53% Median
21 12% 28%  
22 8% 16% Last Result
23 4% 8%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.9% 2%  
26 0.5% 0.7%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100%  
1 0% 79%  
2 0% 79%  
3 0% 79%  
4 0% 79%  
5 0% 79%  
6 0% 79%  
7 0% 79%  
8 0% 79%  
9 0% 79%  
10 0% 79%  
11 0% 79%  
12 0% 79%  
13 0% 79%  
14 5% 79%  
15 17% 74%  
16 13% 57% Median
17 16% 44%  
18 15% 28%  
19 4% 13%  
20 6% 9% Last Result
21 2% 3%  
22 0.3% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 40% 100%  
1 0% 60%  
2 0% 60%  
3 0% 60%  
4 0% 60%  
5 0% 60%  
6 0% 60%  
7 0% 60%  
8 0% 60%  
9 0% 60%  
10 0% 60%  
11 0% 60%  
12 0% 60%  
13 0% 60%  
14 8% 60%  
15 19% 51% Median
16 14% 32% Last Result
17 11% 18%  
18 5% 8%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.7% 0.8%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 204 100% 196–215 194–217 192–220 189–224
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 167 16% 161–177 158–179 156–182 153–186
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna 154 157 0.7% 150–166 148–169 146–172 143–175
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 142 0% 132–151 130–154 128–155 125–159
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 132 137 0% 131–147 129–149 127–151 124–156
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 143 136 0% 124–145 122–147 121–148 117–152
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 132 0% 125–140 123–142 121–145 118–149
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 123 122 0% 115–129 113–131 111–133 107–137
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 117 0% 105–125 102–127 101–128 97–132
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 111 0% 101–121 100–123 98–125 94–130
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 102 0% 96–109 94–111 93–112 91–116

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
185 0% 100%  
186 0.1% 99.9%  
187 0.1% 99.9%  
188 0.2% 99.8%  
189 0.6% 99.6%  
190 0.4% 99.0%  
191 0.9% 98.7%  
192 1.4% 98%  
193 1.2% 96%  
194 2% 95%  
195 2% 94%  
196 4% 91%  
197 4% 88%  
198 4% 83%  
199 7% 80%  
200 6% 72%  
201 5% 67% Last Result
202 3% 62%  
203 6% 59%  
204 4% 53%  
205 4% 49% Median
206 6% 45%  
207 4% 39%  
208 4% 35%  
209 4% 30%  
210 3% 26%  
211 4% 23%  
212 3% 19%  
213 3% 16%  
214 3% 13%  
215 4% 11%  
216 0.6% 6%  
217 2% 6%  
218 0.8% 4%  
219 0.8% 3%  
220 0.3% 3%  
221 0.4% 2%  
222 0.3% 2%  
223 0.3% 1.5%  
224 0.8% 1.2%  
225 0.1% 0.4%  
226 0.1% 0.3%  
227 0.1% 0.2%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.8%  
153 0.5% 99.7%  
154 0.7% 99.2%  
155 0.7% 98.6%  
156 0.7% 98%  
157 1.3% 97%  
158 1.5% 96%  
159 3% 94%  
160 1.2% 91%  
161 3% 90%  
162 8% 87%  
163 8% 80%  
164 3% 71%  
165 7% 68%  
166 6% 62%  
167 7% 56%  
168 5% 49% Median
169 6% 45%  
170 5% 39% Last Result
171 7% 34%  
172 2% 27%  
173 5% 25%  
174 4% 20%  
175 2% 16% Majority
176 1.5% 14%  
177 3% 12%  
178 3% 9%  
179 2% 6%  
180 0.6% 4%  
181 0.7% 4%  
182 0.6% 3%  
183 0.7% 2%  
184 0.2% 2%  
185 0.2% 1.4%  
186 0.8% 1.2%  
187 0.1% 0.3%  
188 0.1% 0.2%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0.2% 99.7%  
143 0.3% 99.5%  
144 0.5% 99.2%  
145 0.6% 98.8%  
146 0.9% 98%  
147 2% 97%  
148 2% 95%  
149 3% 93%  
150 2% 90%  
151 3% 88%  
152 7% 85%  
153 5% 78%  
154 6% 73% Last Result
155 8% 67%  
156 8% 60%  
157 4% 52%  
158 6% 48% Median
159 6% 42%  
160 5% 37%  
161 6% 32%  
162 5% 26%  
163 4% 21%  
164 3% 18%  
165 3% 15%  
166 3% 12%  
167 2% 9%  
168 2% 7%  
169 0.7% 5%  
170 0.9% 5%  
171 0.6% 4%  
172 2% 3%  
173 0.3% 1.2%  
174 0.1% 0.9%  
175 0.3% 0.7% Majority
176 0.2% 0.5%  
177 0.1% 0.3%  
178 0% 0.2%  
179 0.1% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0.1% 100%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.8%  
124 0.2% 99.7%  
125 0.4% 99.6%  
126 0.3% 99.2%  
127 0.7% 98.9%  
128 0.9% 98%  
129 1.3% 97%  
130 3% 96%  
131 3% 93%  
132 4% 90%  
133 3% 86%  
134 4% 83%  
135 3% 79%  
136 3% 76%  
137 2% 73%  
138 4% 71%  
139 6% 67%  
140 6% 61%  
141 5% 55%  
142 6% 50%  
143 3% 45%  
144 7% 42% Last Result
145 5% 34%  
146 5% 29%  
147 3% 24% Median
148 5% 21%  
149 5% 17%  
150 2% 12%  
151 2% 10%  
152 2% 9%  
153 1.3% 6%  
154 1.5% 5%  
155 1.3% 4%  
156 0.5% 2%  
157 0.7% 2%  
158 0.3% 1.0%  
159 0.3% 0.7%  
160 0.1% 0.4%  
161 0.2% 0.3%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.2% 99.8%  
124 0.3% 99.6%  
125 0.4% 99.3%  
126 0.8% 98.9%  
127 0.9% 98%  
128 1.2% 97%  
129 2% 96%  
130 3% 94%  
131 3% 91%  
132 5% 88% Last Result
133 5% 83%  
134 7% 78%  
135 7% 71%  
136 7% 64%  
137 8% 57%  
138 6% 50% Median
139 5% 43%  
140 5% 38%  
141 2% 33%  
142 6% 31%  
143 5% 25%  
144 3% 20%  
145 2% 17%  
146 4% 14%  
147 4% 10%  
148 1.3% 6%  
149 0.7% 5%  
150 0.5% 4%  
151 2% 4%  
152 0.3% 1.4%  
153 0.3% 1.2%  
154 0.2% 0.9%  
155 0.1% 0.7%  
156 0.3% 0.5%  
157 0.1% 0.3%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0.1% 100%  
115 0.2% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.6%  
117 0.2% 99.5%  
118 0.1% 99.4%  
119 0.3% 99.2%  
120 1.3% 98.9%  
121 2% 98%  
122 2% 96%  
123 3% 93%  
124 0.9% 91%  
125 1.0% 90%  
126 1.4% 89%  
127 1.3% 87%  
128 6% 86%  
129 5% 80%  
130 4% 74%  
131 3% 70%  
132 3% 68%  
133 3% 65%  
134 6% 62%  
135 4% 56%  
136 4% 52%  
137 5% 47%  
138 2% 42%  
139 5% 40% Median
140 6% 35%  
141 8% 29%  
142 4% 21%  
143 1.4% 17% Last Result
144 4% 15%  
145 3% 11%  
146 3% 9%  
147 3% 6%  
148 0.9% 3%  
149 0.7% 2%  
150 0.2% 1.2%  
151 0.4% 1.0%  
152 0.3% 0.6%  
153 0.2% 0.3%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0% 100%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.2% 99.9%  
118 0.2% 99.6%  
119 0.5% 99.4%  
120 0.8% 98.9%  
121 0.9% 98%  
122 2% 97%  
123 2% 96%  
124 1.4% 94%  
125 6% 92%  
126 4% 87%  
127 7% 83%  
128 5% 76% Last Result
129 7% 71%  
130 8% 64%  
131 6% 56%  
132 10% 51% Median
133 5% 41%  
134 6% 36%  
135 3% 30%  
136 5% 27%  
137 3% 21%  
138 3% 18%  
139 4% 15%  
140 3% 11%  
141 2% 8%  
142 2% 6%  
143 0.8% 4%  
144 0.7% 3%  
145 1.1% 3%  
146 0.4% 1.5%  
147 0.1% 1.1%  
148 0.4% 1.0%  
149 0.5% 0.6%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0.1% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.2% 99.8%  
107 0.1% 99.6%  
108 0.2% 99.5%  
109 0.6% 99.2%  
110 0.5% 98.6%  
111 1.4% 98%  
112 2% 97%  
113 2% 95%  
114 2% 94%  
115 6% 91%  
116 4% 86%  
117 3% 82%  
118 4% 79%  
119 5% 75%  
120 7% 70%  
121 7% 63%  
122 9% 56%  
123 9% 47% Last Result, Median
124 10% 39%  
125 3% 29%  
126 4% 26%  
127 3% 22%  
128 8% 19%  
129 2% 11%  
130 3% 9%  
131 2% 6%  
132 0.7% 4%  
133 1.2% 3%  
134 0.6% 2%  
135 0.4% 1.2%  
136 0.2% 0.7%  
137 0.2% 0.6%  
138 0.1% 0.4%  
139 0.2% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.3% 99.7%  
98 0.1% 99.4%  
99 0.2% 99.3%  
100 1.0% 99.1%  
101 3% 98%  
102 1.4% 96%  
103 2% 94%  
104 0.9% 92%  
105 2% 92%  
106 1.5% 90%  
107 3% 88%  
108 2% 86%  
109 3% 83%  
110 4% 80%  
111 3% 76%  
112 5% 73%  
113 3% 68%  
114 2% 65%  
115 7% 63%  
116 3% 56%  
117 8% 53%  
118 5% 45%  
119 5% 41% Median
120 5% 35%  
121 8% 30% Last Result
122 3% 21%  
123 4% 19%  
124 4% 15%  
125 4% 12%  
126 2% 7%  
127 1.5% 5%  
128 1.3% 4%  
129 1.2% 2%  
130 0.5% 1.3%  
131 0.2% 0.8%  
132 0.3% 0.5%  
133 0.1% 0.3%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.3% 99.8%  
95 0.4% 99.5%  
96 0.6% 99.1%  
97 1.0% 98.5%  
98 0.8% 98%  
99 0.9% 97%  
100 2% 96%  
101 5% 94%  
102 3% 89%  
103 3% 86%  
104 4% 82%  
105 3% 78%  
106 2% 75%  
107 2% 74%  
108 6% 71%  
109 3% 66%  
110 9% 62%  
111 4% 53%  
112 3% 49%  
113 3% 46%  
114 2% 43%  
115 4% 40%  
116 7% 37% Last Result
117 6% 30% Median
118 6% 24%  
119 3% 18%  
120 3% 15%  
121 2% 12%  
122 2% 10%  
123 3% 8%  
124 1.5% 5%  
125 2% 3%  
126 0.5% 2%  
127 0.2% 1.1%  
128 0.1% 0.9%  
129 0.2% 0.8%  
130 0.4% 0.6%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.7%  
91 0.5% 99.5%  
92 0.7% 99.0%  
93 1.1% 98%  
94 3% 97%  
95 3% 95%  
96 4% 92%  
97 5% 88%  
98 3% 83%  
99 6% 80%  
100 7% 74%  
101 9% 68% Last Result
102 9% 59%  
103 8% 49% Median
104 9% 41%  
105 6% 33%  
106 5% 27%  
107 4% 22%  
108 5% 18%  
109 4% 12%  
110 2% 8%  
111 2% 6%  
112 2% 4%  
113 0.9% 2%  
114 0.3% 1.4%  
115 0.4% 1.1%  
116 0.3% 0.7%  
117 0.1% 0.4%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations