Opinion Poll by Inizio for Aftonbladet, 4–12 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 29.4% | 28.1–30.6% | 27.8–31.0% | 27.5–31.3% | 26.9–31.9% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.4% | 18.4–20.5% | 18.0–20.8% | 17.8–21.1% | 17.3–21.6% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 18.5% | 17.5–19.6% | 17.2–19.9% | 16.9–20.2% | 16.5–20.7% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.2–9.8% | 8.0–10.0% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.5–10.7% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.0–8.5% | 6.8–8.7% | 6.6–8.9% | 6.3–9.3% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.5–8.0% | 6.3–8.2% | 6.2–8.4% | 5.9–8.7% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.2–4.3% | 3.1–4.4% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.8–4.9% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.9–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.4–4.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 111 | 106–116 | 104–118 | 102–119 | 99–120 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 73 | 69–78 | 67–79 | 66–80 | 64–82 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 70 | 65–74 | 64–75 | 63–76 | 61–79 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 34 | 31–37 | 30–38 | 29–39 | 28–40 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 29 | 26–32 | 26–33 | 25–34 | 24–35 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 27 | 24–30 | 24–31 | 23–32 | 22–33 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0–16 | 0–16 | 0–17 | 0–18 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–16 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 101 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 102 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 103 | 2% | 97% | |
| 104 | 2% | 95% | |
| 105 | 2% | 93% | |
| 106 | 4% | 91% | |
| 107 | 6% | 87% | |
| 108 | 8% | 81% | |
| 109 | 9% | 73% | |
| 110 | 9% | 64% | |
| 111 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 112 | 12% | 45% | |
| 113 | 8% | 32% | |
| 114 | 6% | 24% | |
| 115 | 5% | 18% | |
| 116 | 4% | 13% | |
| 117 | 3% | 9% | |
| 118 | 3% | 6% | |
| 119 | 2% | 3% | |
| 120 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 98.5% | |
| 67 | 2% | 97% | |
| 68 | 4% | 95% | |
| 69 | 7% | 91% | |
| 70 | 9% | 84% | |
| 71 | 8% | 75% | |
| 72 | 9% | 68% | |
| 73 | 9% | 59% | Median |
| 74 | 15% | 50% | |
| 75 | 8% | 35% | |
| 76 | 11% | 27% | |
| 77 | 6% | 16% | |
| 78 | 4% | 10% | |
| 79 | 2% | 7% | |
| 80 | 2% | 4% | |
| 81 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 63 | 3% | 98% | |
| 64 | 2% | 96% | |
| 65 | 4% | 93% | |
| 66 | 6% | 89% | |
| 67 | 11% | 83% | |
| 68 | 9% | 72% | |
| 69 | 10% | 63% | |
| 70 | 11% | 53% | Last Result, Median |
| 71 | 13% | 42% | |
| 72 | 6% | 29% | |
| 73 | 8% | 22% | |
| 74 | 6% | 14% | |
| 75 | 4% | 8% | |
| 76 | 3% | 5% | |
| 77 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 30 | 4% | 97% | |
| 31 | 6% | 93% | Last Result |
| 32 | 16% | 86% | |
| 33 | 14% | 71% | |
| 34 | 20% | 57% | Median |
| 35 | 13% | 37% | |
| 36 | 9% | 24% | |
| 37 | 7% | 15% | |
| 38 | 4% | 8% | |
| 39 | 2% | 4% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 1.5% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 25 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 26 | 7% | 95% | |
| 27 | 10% | 89% | |
| 28 | 20% | 79% | |
| 29 | 18% | 59% | Median |
| 30 | 16% | 40% | |
| 31 | 10% | 24% | |
| 32 | 6% | 14% | |
| 33 | 6% | 9% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 24 | 8% | 97% | |
| 25 | 8% | 89% | |
| 26 | 17% | 81% | |
| 27 | 17% | 65% | Median |
| 28 | 19% | 48% | Last Result |
| 29 | 14% | 29% | |
| 30 | 8% | 15% | |
| 31 | 4% | 6% | |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 73% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 27% | |
| 2 | 0% | 27% | |
| 3 | 0% | 27% | |
| 4 | 0% | 27% | |
| 5 | 0% | 27% | |
| 6 | 0% | 27% | |
| 7 | 0% | 27% | |
| 8 | 0% | 27% | |
| 9 | 0% | 27% | |
| 10 | 0% | 27% | |
| 11 | 0% | 27% | |
| 12 | 0% | 27% | |
| 13 | 0% | 27% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 27% | |
| 15 | 14% | 27% | |
| 16 | 10% | 13% | Last Result |
| 17 | 2% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 15 | 2% | 4% | |
| 16 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 216 | 100% | 206–222 | 204–223 | 202–225 | 199–226 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 181 | 86% | 173–187 | 171–189 | 170–191 | 166–192 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 173 | 38% | 165–179 | 163–180 | 161–181 | 158–184 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 142 | 0% | 136–152 | 134–153 | 132–154 | 129–157 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 143 | 0% | 136–149 | 134–150 | 133–152 | 130–154 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 138 | 0% | 132–144 | 130–146 | 128–147 | 125–149 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 134 | 0% | 127–140 | 125–141 | 124–143 | 121–149 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 133 | 0% | 127–139 | 125–140 | 123–142 | 121–144 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 114 | 0% | 109–124 | 107–126 | 105–127 | 102–131 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 105 | 0% | 99–110 | 97–112 | 96–114 | 94–119 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 104 | 0% | 99–109 | 96–111 | 95–112 | 93–114 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 199 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 200 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 201 | 0.4% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 202 | 2% | 98% | |
| 203 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 204 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 205 | 2% | 94% | |
| 206 | 3% | 92% | |
| 207 | 4% | 89% | |
| 208 | 4% | 84% | |
| 209 | 3% | 80% | |
| 210 | 5% | 77% | |
| 211 | 3% | 73% | |
| 212 | 2% | 70% | |
| 213 | 6% | 67% | |
| 214 | 4% | 61% | |
| 215 | 6% | 57% | Median |
| 216 | 6% | 51% | |
| 217 | 9% | 45% | |
| 218 | 10% | 35% | |
| 219 | 6% | 25% | |
| 220 | 5% | 20% | |
| 221 | 4% | 15% | |
| 222 | 4% | 11% | |
| 223 | 2% | 7% | |
| 224 | 2% | 4% | |
| 225 | 2% | 3% | |
| 226 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 227 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 228 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 168 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 169 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 170 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 171 | 2% | 95% | |
| 172 | 3% | 94% | |
| 173 | 3% | 91% | |
| 174 | 2% | 88% | |
| 175 | 7% | 86% | Majority |
| 176 | 3% | 79% | |
| 177 | 4% | 76% | |
| 178 | 3% | 72% | |
| 179 | 7% | 69% | |
| 180 | 9% | 62% | |
| 181 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 182 | 6% | 46% | |
| 183 | 6% | 40% | |
| 184 | 7% | 33% | |
| 185 | 8% | 27% | |
| 186 | 7% | 19% | |
| 187 | 4% | 12% | |
| 188 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 189 | 2% | 6% | |
| 190 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 191 | 2% | 3% | |
| 192 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 161 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 162 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 163 | 3% | 96% | |
| 164 | 2% | 93% | |
| 165 | 6% | 91% | |
| 166 | 3% | 85% | |
| 167 | 5% | 82% | |
| 168 | 5% | 77% | |
| 169 | 4% | 72% | |
| 170 | 5% | 68% | |
| 171 | 6% | 64% | |
| 172 | 3% | 57% | Median |
| 173 | 11% | 54% | |
| 174 | 5% | 43% | |
| 175 | 11% | 38% | Majority |
| 176 | 5% | 27% | |
| 177 | 7% | 22% | |
| 178 | 5% | 16% | |
| 179 | 4% | 10% | |
| 180 | 2% | 6% | |
| 181 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 182 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 183 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 131 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 132 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 133 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 134 | 2% | 96% | |
| 135 | 3% | 94% | |
| 136 | 4% | 92% | |
| 137 | 10% | 88% | |
| 138 | 4% | 78% | Median |
| 139 | 8% | 74% | |
| 140 | 10% | 66% | |
| 141 | 5% | 56% | |
| 142 | 9% | 51% | |
| 143 | 5% | 42% | |
| 144 | 4% | 36% | Last Result |
| 145 | 3% | 32% | |
| 146 | 5% | 29% | |
| 147 | 3% | 25% | |
| 148 | 3% | 21% | |
| 149 | 3% | 19% | |
| 150 | 2% | 15% | |
| 151 | 3% | 13% | |
| 152 | 5% | 10% | |
| 153 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 154 | 2% | 4% | |
| 155 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 156 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 131 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 132 | 0.8% | 98.9% | Last Result |
| 133 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 134 | 2% | 97% | |
| 135 | 2% | 95% | |
| 136 | 5% | 93% | |
| 137 | 4% | 88% | |
| 138 | 7% | 84% | |
| 139 | 5% | 78% | |
| 140 | 4% | 73% | |
| 141 | 7% | 69% | |
| 142 | 7% | 62% | |
| 143 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 144 | 6% | 49% | |
| 145 | 11% | 44% | |
| 146 | 8% | 33% | |
| 147 | 7% | 25% | |
| 148 | 5% | 18% | |
| 149 | 4% | 13% | |
| 150 | 3% | 8% | |
| 151 | 2% | 5% | |
| 152 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 153 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 127 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 128 | 1.3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 129 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 130 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 131 | 3% | 95% | |
| 132 | 3% | 92% | |
| 133 | 4% | 88% | |
| 134 | 4% | 84% | |
| 135 | 5% | 80% | |
| 136 | 6% | 75% | |
| 137 | 14% | 69% | |
| 138 | 6% | 55% | Median |
| 139 | 9% | 49% | |
| 140 | 10% | 40% | |
| 141 | 5% | 30% | |
| 142 | 10% | 25% | |
| 143 | 4% | 15% | |
| 144 | 3% | 11% | |
| 145 | 3% | 8% | |
| 146 | 2% | 6% | |
| 147 | 2% | 3% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 119 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 123 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 124 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 125 | 3% | 97% | |
| 126 | 2% | 94% | |
| 127 | 4% | 92% | |
| 128 | 6% | 88% | |
| 129 | 6% | 82% | |
| 130 | 5% | 76% | |
| 131 | 6% | 71% | |
| 132 | 5% | 65% | |
| 133 | 9% | 59% | Median |
| 134 | 6% | 50% | |
| 135 | 10% | 44% | |
| 136 | 11% | 34% | |
| 137 | 6% | 23% | |
| 138 | 4% | 17% | |
| 139 | 3% | 14% | |
| 140 | 4% | 11% | |
| 141 | 2% | 7% | |
| 142 | 2% | 5% | |
| 143 | 1.2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 144 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 122 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 123 | 1.4% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 124 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 125 | 3% | 96% | |
| 126 | 2% | 92% | |
| 127 | 4% | 90% | |
| 128 | 7% | 86% | |
| 129 | 6% | 79% | |
| 130 | 5% | 73% | |
| 131 | 6% | 68% | |
| 132 | 5% | 61% | |
| 133 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 134 | 7% | 47% | |
| 135 | 10% | 40% | |
| 136 | 11% | 31% | |
| 137 | 6% | 20% | |
| 138 | 3% | 14% | |
| 139 | 3% | 11% | |
| 140 | 4% | 8% | |
| 141 | 2% | 4% | |
| 142 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 143 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 144 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 104 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 105 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 106 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 107 | 2% | 95% | |
| 108 | 3% | 94% | |
| 109 | 6% | 90% | |
| 110 | 7% | 85% | |
| 111 | 8% | 77% | Median |
| 112 | 12% | 69% | |
| 113 | 8% | 58% | |
| 114 | 6% | 50% | |
| 115 | 5% | 44% | |
| 116 | 5% | 39% | Last Result |
| 117 | 3% | 35% | |
| 118 | 4% | 31% | |
| 119 | 3% | 28% | |
| 120 | 2% | 24% | |
| 121 | 2% | 23% | |
| 122 | 3% | 20% | |
| 123 | 5% | 18% | |
| 124 | 3% | 12% | |
| 125 | 3% | 9% | |
| 126 | 3% | 6% | |
| 127 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 128 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 129 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 130 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 95 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 96 | 2% | 98% | |
| 97 | 2% | 96% | |
| 98 | 3% | 95% | |
| 99 | 8% | 92% | |
| 100 | 7% | 84% | |
| 101 | 5% | 77% | |
| 102 | 9% | 72% | |
| 103 | 5% | 63% | |
| 104 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 105 | 14% | 51% | |
| 106 | 9% | 36% | |
| 107 | 6% | 28% | |
| 108 | 6% | 21% | |
| 109 | 3% | 15% | |
| 110 | 4% | 12% | |
| 111 | 2% | 9% | |
| 112 | 3% | 7% | |
| 113 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 114 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 94 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 95 | 2% | 98% | |
| 96 | 2% | 97% | |
| 97 | 2% | 95% | |
| 98 | 3% | 93% | |
| 99 | 8% | 90% | |
| 100 | 7% | 82% | |
| 101 | 6% | 75% | Last Result |
| 102 | 10% | 69% | |
| 103 | 6% | 59% | |
| 104 | 7% | 54% | Median |
| 105 | 14% | 47% | |
| 106 | 9% | 33% | |
| 107 | 6% | 24% | |
| 108 | 6% | 18% | |
| 109 | 2% | 11% | |
| 110 | 3% | 9% | |
| 111 | 2% | 6% | |
| 112 | 3% | 4% | |
| 113 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Inizio
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 4–12 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 2238
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.50%