Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 12 November–16 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 30.0% | 29.2–30.8% | 29.0–31.0% | 28.8–31.2% | 28.4–31.6% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.8% | 19.1–20.5% | 18.9–20.7% | 18.7–20.9% | 18.4–21.2% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 18.3% | 17.6–19.0% | 17.5–19.2% | 17.3–19.4% | 17.0–19.7% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.1–9.1% | 8.0–9.3% | 7.9–9.4% | 7.7–9.6% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.3–8.2% | 7.1–8.3% | 7.0–8.4% | 6.8–8.7% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.1–7.0% | 6.0–7.1% | 5.9–7.2% | 5.7–7.4% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.7–4.4% | 3.6–4.5% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.8% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.6–4.3% | 3.5–4.4% | 3.4–4.5% | 3.3–4.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 111 | 105–119 | 102–119 | 102–120 | 101–120 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 73 | 69–77 | 67–79 | 67–80 | 65–81 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 67 | 64–71 | 63–72 | 62–73 | 61–74 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 32 | 30–34 | 29–35 | 28–35 | 28–36 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 28 | 26–31 | 26–32 | 25–32 | 24–33 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 24 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–27 | 21–28 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 14 | 0–16 | 0–16 | 0–17 | 0–17 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–16 | 0–16 | 0–17 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 101 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 3% | 98% | |
| 103 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 104 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 105 | 3% | 91% | |
| 106 | 6% | 89% | |
| 107 | 4% | 82% | |
| 108 | 9% | 79% | |
| 109 | 9% | 70% | |
| 110 | 7% | 61% | |
| 111 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 112 | 12% | 44% | |
| 113 | 6% | 32% | |
| 114 | 7% | 26% | |
| 115 | 1.5% | 18% | |
| 116 | 2% | 17% | |
| 117 | 2% | 15% | |
| 118 | 3% | 13% | |
| 119 | 6% | 10% | |
| 120 | 4% | 4% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 67 | 3% | 98% | |
| 68 | 5% | 95% | |
| 69 | 5% | 90% | |
| 70 | 6% | 85% | |
| 71 | 13% | 80% | |
| 72 | 10% | 67% | |
| 73 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 74 | 13% | 45% | |
| 75 | 13% | 33% | |
| 76 | 6% | 20% | |
| 77 | 6% | 14% | |
| 78 | 3% | 8% | |
| 79 | 2% | 5% | |
| 80 | 2% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 63 | 4% | 97% | |
| 64 | 6% | 93% | |
| 65 | 10% | 87% | |
| 66 | 15% | 77% | |
| 67 | 12% | 62% | Median |
| 68 | 10% | 50% | |
| 69 | 14% | 40% | |
| 70 | 13% | 26% | Last Result |
| 71 | 5% | 13% | |
| 72 | 4% | 8% | |
| 73 | 3% | 5% | |
| 74 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 29 | 6% | 97% | |
| 30 | 12% | 91% | |
| 31 | 23% | 80% | Last Result |
| 32 | 24% | 57% | Median |
| 33 | 18% | 33% | |
| 34 | 8% | 14% | |
| 35 | 4% | 6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 25 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 26 | 12% | 96% | |
| 27 | 12% | 84% | |
| 28 | 28% | 72% | Last Result, Median |
| 29 | 19% | 44% | |
| 30 | 12% | 25% | |
| 31 | 5% | 13% | |
| 32 | 7% | 7% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 21 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 22 | 11% | 96% | Last Result |
| 23 | 21% | 85% | |
| 24 | 25% | 64% | Median |
| 25 | 24% | 38% | |
| 26 | 10% | 14% | |
| 27 | 4% | 5% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 50% | |
| 2 | 0% | 50% | |
| 3 | 0% | 50% | |
| 4 | 0% | 50% | |
| 5 | 0% | 50% | |
| 6 | 0% | 50% | |
| 7 | 0% | 50% | |
| 8 | 0% | 50% | |
| 9 | 0% | 50% | |
| 10 | 0% | 50% | |
| 11 | 0% | 50% | |
| 12 | 0% | 50% | |
| 13 | 0% | 50% | |
| 14 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 15 | 28% | 46% | |
| 16 | 13% | 17% | Last Result |
| 17 | 4% | 4% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 63% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 37% | |
| 2 | 0% | 37% | |
| 3 | 0% | 37% | |
| 4 | 0% | 37% | |
| 5 | 0% | 37% | |
| 6 | 0% | 37% | |
| 7 | 0% | 37% | |
| 8 | 0% | 37% | |
| 9 | 0% | 37% | |
| 10 | 0% | 37% | |
| 11 | 0% | 37% | |
| 12 | 0% | 37% | |
| 13 | 0% | 37% | |
| 14 | 10% | 37% | |
| 15 | 17% | 27% | |
| 16 | 8% | 10% | |
| 17 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 210 | 100% | 201–221 | 197–222 | 196–222 | 195–224 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 184 | 96% | 177–192 | 175–195 | 173–196 | 172–197 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 179 | 69% | 170–188 | 166–189 | 166–190 | 164–191 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 165 | 4% | 157–172 | 154–174 | 153–176 | 152–177 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 157 | 0% | 146–165 | 145–168 | 144–169 | 143–170 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 147 | 0% | 139–155 | 138–156 | 136–157 | 134–159 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 141 | 0% | 134–147 | 132–149 | 131–151 | 129–152 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 139 | 0% | 132–147 | 130–148 | 129–149 | 128–150 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 129 | 0% | 122–137 | 120–140 | 120–141 | 118–143 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 123 | 0% | 118–129 | 117–131 | 115–131 | 113–133 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 119 | 0% | 111–127 | 109–128 | 108–128 | 106–131 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 103 | 0% | 97–114 | 97–115 | 96–118 | 94–119 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 99 | 0% | 95–104 | 94–106 | 92–106 | 90–108 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 195 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 196 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 197 | 2% | 96% | |
| 198 | 2% | 95% | |
| 199 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 200 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 201 | 2% | 91% | Last Result |
| 202 | 3% | 88% | |
| 203 | 4% | 86% | |
| 204 | 3% | 82% | |
| 205 | 5% | 78% | |
| 206 | 7% | 74% | |
| 207 | 5% | 67% | |
| 208 | 2% | 62% | |
| 209 | 4% | 60% | |
| 210 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 211 | 7% | 48% | |
| 212 | 5% | 41% | |
| 213 | 3% | 36% | |
| 214 | 5% | 33% | |
| 215 | 3% | 28% | |
| 216 | 3% | 25% | |
| 217 | 2% | 22% | |
| 218 | 2% | 20% | |
| 219 | 1.4% | 18% | |
| 220 | 2% | 16% | |
| 221 | 9% | 14% | |
| 222 | 3% | 5% | |
| 223 | 2% | 2% | |
| 224 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 226 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 171 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 173 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 174 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 175 | 2% | 96% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 94% | |
| 177 | 2% | 92% | |
| 178 | 7% | 90% | |
| 179 | 4% | 83% | |
| 180 | 8% | 79% | |
| 181 | 7% | 71% | |
| 182 | 3% | 64% | |
| 183 | 4% | 61% | |
| 184 | 7% | 57% | |
| 185 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 186 | 8% | 45% | |
| 187 | 8% | 37% | |
| 188 | 5% | 29% | |
| 189 | 5% | 24% | |
| 190 | 3% | 19% | |
| 191 | 5% | 16% | |
| 192 | 1.5% | 11% | |
| 193 | 3% | 10% | |
| 194 | 2% | 7% | |
| 195 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 196 | 2% | 3% | |
| 197 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 163 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 165 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 166 | 3% | 98% | |
| 167 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 168 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 169 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 170 | 2% | 92% | Last Result |
| 171 | 3% | 90% | |
| 172 | 4% | 87% | |
| 173 | 8% | 83% | |
| 174 | 6% | 75% | |
| 175 | 5% | 69% | Majority |
| 176 | 3% | 64% | |
| 177 | 3% | 61% | |
| 178 | 6% | 58% | Median |
| 179 | 9% | 53% | |
| 180 | 8% | 44% | |
| 181 | 6% | 36% | |
| 182 | 5% | 30% | |
| 183 | 4% | 25% | |
| 184 | 2% | 21% | |
| 185 | 1.0% | 19% | |
| 186 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 187 | 3% | 16% | |
| 188 | 4% | 14% | |
| 189 | 7% | 10% | |
| 190 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 191 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 150 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 153 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 154 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 155 | 2% | 95% | |
| 156 | 3% | 93% | |
| 157 | 1.5% | 90% | |
| 158 | 5% | 89% | |
| 159 | 3% | 84% | |
| 160 | 5% | 81% | |
| 161 | 5% | 76% | |
| 162 | 8% | 71% | |
| 163 | 8% | 63% | |
| 164 | 5% | 55% | Median |
| 165 | 7% | 50% | |
| 166 | 4% | 43% | |
| 167 | 3% | 39% | |
| 168 | 7% | 36% | |
| 169 | 8% | 29% | |
| 170 | 4% | 21% | |
| 171 | 7% | 17% | |
| 172 | 2% | 10% | |
| 173 | 2% | 8% | |
| 174 | 2% | 6% | |
| 175 | 0.9% | 4% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 3% | |
| 177 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 141 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 144 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 145 | 3% | 97% | |
| 146 | 5% | 94% | |
| 147 | 3% | 88% | |
| 148 | 2% | 86% | |
| 149 | 2% | 83% | |
| 150 | 1.4% | 81% | |
| 151 | 6% | 80% | |
| 152 | 7% | 73% | |
| 153 | 4% | 67% | |
| 154 | 2% | 63% | |
| 155 | 2% | 61% | |
| 156 | 8% | 59% | |
| 157 | 7% | 50% | Median |
| 158 | 8% | 43% | |
| 159 | 7% | 35% | |
| 160 | 5% | 28% | |
| 161 | 4% | 23% | |
| 162 | 2% | 19% | |
| 163 | 3% | 17% | |
| 164 | 1.4% | 14% | |
| 165 | 2% | 12% | |
| 166 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 167 | 2% | 8% | Last Result |
| 168 | 3% | 6% | |
| 169 | 2% | 3% | |
| 170 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 135 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 136 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 137 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 138 | 3% | 95% | |
| 139 | 5% | 93% | |
| 140 | 4% | 88% | |
| 141 | 2% | 84% | |
| 142 | 4% | 81% | |
| 143 | 4% | 77% | |
| 144 | 4% | 73% | Last Result |
| 145 | 9% | 69% | |
| 146 | 5% | 60% | |
| 147 | 6% | 54% | |
| 148 | 8% | 48% | |
| 149 | 8% | 41% | |
| 150 | 4% | 33% | |
| 151 | 3% | 29% | |
| 152 | 7% | 25% | |
| 153 | 3% | 18% | Median |
| 154 | 4% | 16% | |
| 155 | 4% | 11% | |
| 156 | 4% | 7% | |
| 157 | 2% | 3% | |
| 158 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 130 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 131 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 132 | 3% | 96% | Last Result |
| 133 | 2% | 93% | |
| 134 | 3% | 91% | |
| 135 | 5% | 88% | |
| 136 | 6% | 83% | |
| 137 | 6% | 77% | |
| 138 | 8% | 71% | |
| 139 | 6% | 64% | |
| 140 | 7% | 58% | Median |
| 141 | 6% | 51% | |
| 142 | 6% | 45% | |
| 143 | 7% | 39% | |
| 144 | 9% | 32% | |
| 145 | 7% | 23% | |
| 146 | 6% | 17% | |
| 147 | 3% | 10% | |
| 148 | 2% | 8% | |
| 149 | 2% | 6% | |
| 150 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 151 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 152 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 129 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 130 | 4% | 97% | |
| 131 | 2% | 93% | |
| 132 | 3% | 91% | |
| 133 | 3% | 88% | |
| 134 | 4% | 85% | |
| 135 | 6% | 81% | |
| 136 | 6% | 75% | |
| 137 | 10% | 69% | |
| 138 | 5% | 59% | |
| 139 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 140 | 7% | 47% | |
| 141 | 6% | 40% | |
| 142 | 6% | 34% | |
| 143 | 3% | 28% | |
| 144 | 3% | 25% | |
| 145 | 6% | 22% | |
| 146 | 4% | 16% | |
| 147 | 4% | 12% | |
| 148 | 4% | 8% | |
| 149 | 3% | 4% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 115 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 118 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 119 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 120 | 3% | 98% | |
| 121 | 3% | 94% | |
| 122 | 6% | 92% | |
| 123 | 6% | 86% | Median |
| 124 | 4% | 80% | |
| 125 | 8% | 76% | |
| 126 | 8% | 67% | |
| 127 | 5% | 59% | |
| 128 | 5% | 55% | |
| 129 | 7% | 50% | |
| 130 | 3% | 43% | |
| 131 | 6% | 39% | |
| 132 | 4% | 33% | |
| 133 | 7% | 29% | |
| 134 | 4% | 22% | |
| 135 | 3% | 18% | |
| 136 | 2% | 15% | |
| 137 | 3% | 13% | |
| 138 | 2% | 10% | |
| 139 | 3% | 8% | |
| 140 | 2% | 5% | |
| 141 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 142 | 2% | 2% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 144 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 114 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 115 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 116 | 2% | 97% | |
| 117 | 5% | 95% | |
| 118 | 3% | 90% | |
| 119 | 8% | 87% | |
| 120 | 7% | 79% | |
| 121 | 6% | 72% | |
| 122 | 10% | 66% | |
| 123 | 8% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 124 | 7% | 49% | |
| 125 | 9% | 42% | |
| 126 | 9% | 33% | |
| 127 | 5% | 23% | |
| 128 | 5% | 18% | |
| 129 | 6% | 14% | |
| 130 | 2% | 8% | |
| 131 | 3% | 6% | |
| 132 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 107 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 108 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 109 | 3% | 97% | |
| 110 | 2% | 93% | |
| 111 | 6% | 91% | |
| 112 | 8% | 85% | |
| 113 | 3% | 77% | |
| 114 | 6% | 74% | |
| 115 | 2% | 68% | |
| 116 | 5% | 67% | Last Result |
| 117 | 5% | 62% | |
| 118 | 4% | 57% | |
| 119 | 7% | 53% | |
| 120 | 6% | 46% | |
| 121 | 4% | 41% | |
| 122 | 5% | 36% | |
| 123 | 4% | 31% | |
| 124 | 5% | 27% | |
| 125 | 8% | 22% | Median |
| 126 | 4% | 15% | |
| 127 | 5% | 11% | |
| 128 | 4% | 6% | |
| 129 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 95 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 96 | 2% | 98% | |
| 97 | 6% | 96% | |
| 98 | 4% | 89% | |
| 99 | 6% | 86% | Median |
| 100 | 8% | 80% | |
| 101 | 8% | 72% | |
| 102 | 8% | 64% | |
| 103 | 7% | 56% | |
| 104 | 3% | 49% | |
| 105 | 4% | 46% | |
| 106 | 4% | 42% | |
| 107 | 3% | 38% | |
| 108 | 4% | 35% | |
| 109 | 3% | 31% | |
| 110 | 4% | 28% | |
| 111 | 6% | 24% | |
| 112 | 4% | 18% | |
| 113 | 3% | 14% | |
| 114 | 4% | 11% | |
| 115 | 3% | 8% | |
| 116 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 117 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 118 | 2% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 92 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 93 | 2% | 97% | |
| 94 | 4% | 95% | |
| 95 | 6% | 91% | |
| 96 | 7% | 85% | |
| 97 | 13% | 79% | |
| 98 | 8% | 65% | |
| 99 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 100 | 9% | 48% | |
| 101 | 9% | 39% | Last Result |
| 102 | 10% | 30% | |
| 103 | 7% | 20% | |
| 104 | 4% | 12% | |
| 105 | 3% | 9% | |
| 106 | 3% | 5% | |
| 107 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 108 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 12 November–16 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 5414
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.21%