Opinion Poll by Inizio for Aftonbladet, 19–26 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 29.8% | 28.6–31.0% | 28.2–31.4% | 27.9–31.7% | 27.4–32.3% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 18.8% | 17.8–19.9% | 17.5–20.2% | 17.2–20.4% | 16.8–21.0% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 18.3% | 17.3–19.3% | 17.0–19.6% | 16.7–19.9% | 16.3–20.4% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.7–9.2% | 7.5–9.4% | 7.3–9.6% | 7.0–10.0% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.5–9.0% | 7.3–9.2% | 7.1–9.4% | 6.8–9.8% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.0–8.5% | 6.8–8.7% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.4–9.2% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.7–4.8% | 3.6–5.0% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.2–5.4% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.8–3.7% | 2.7–3.9% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 109 | 105–116 | 103–117 | 102–119 | 100–121 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 69 | 65–74 | 64–74 | 63–76 | 62–78 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 68 | 64–72 | 62–73 | 61–74 | 60–76 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 31 | 29–34 | 28–35 | 27–36 | 26–37 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 30 | 28–33 | 27–34 | 26–35 | 25–36 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 29 | 26–32 | 25–32 | 25–33 | 23–34 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 15 | 0–18 | 0–18 | 0–18 | 0–20 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–14 | 0–15 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 102 | 2% | 98% | |
| 103 | 2% | 96% | |
| 104 | 3% | 94% | |
| 105 | 6% | 91% | |
| 106 | 6% | 85% | |
| 107 | 11% | 79% | |
| 108 | 9% | 68% | |
| 109 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 110 | 7% | 50% | |
| 111 | 12% | 42% | |
| 112 | 4% | 30% | |
| 113 | 8% | 26% | |
| 114 | 4% | 18% | |
| 115 | 3% | 14% | |
| 116 | 3% | 11% | |
| 117 | 5% | 8% | |
| 118 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 119 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 120 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 63 | 1.3% | 98.7% | |
| 64 | 4% | 97% | |
| 65 | 5% | 93% | |
| 66 | 12% | 89% | |
| 67 | 13% | 76% | |
| 68 | 10% | 63% | |
| 69 | 11% | 54% | Median |
| 70 | 12% | 42% | |
| 71 | 8% | 31% | |
| 72 | 7% | 23% | |
| 73 | 4% | 15% | |
| 74 | 6% | 11% | |
| 75 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 76 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 61 | 1.5% | 98.8% | |
| 62 | 2% | 97% | |
| 63 | 4% | 95% | |
| 64 | 5% | 91% | |
| 65 | 6% | 86% | |
| 66 | 13% | 80% | |
| 67 | 12% | 67% | |
| 68 | 17% | 55% | Median |
| 69 | 11% | 38% | |
| 70 | 10% | 28% | Last Result |
| 71 | 6% | 18% | |
| 72 | 5% | 12% | |
| 73 | 3% | 7% | |
| 74 | 3% | 4% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 28 | 5% | 96% | |
| 29 | 12% | 91% | |
| 30 | 17% | 79% | |
| 31 | 16% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 32 | 23% | 46% | |
| 33 | 9% | 23% | |
| 34 | 7% | 14% | |
| 35 | 4% | 7% | |
| 36 | 3% | 4% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 27 | 3% | 97% | |
| 28 | 7% | 94% | |
| 29 | 19% | 87% | |
| 30 | 19% | 68% | Median |
| 31 | 17% | 49% | |
| 32 | 14% | 32% | |
| 33 | 11% | 17% | |
| 34 | 3% | 6% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 25 | 6% | 98% | |
| 26 | 10% | 92% | |
| 27 | 10% | 82% | |
| 28 | 19% | 71% | Last Result |
| 29 | 20% | 52% | Median |
| 30 | 11% | 33% | |
| 31 | 11% | 21% | |
| 32 | 7% | 11% | |
| 33 | 2% | 4% | |
| 34 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 28% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 72% | |
| 2 | 0% | 72% | |
| 3 | 0% | 72% | |
| 4 | 0% | 72% | |
| 5 | 0% | 72% | |
| 6 | 0% | 72% | |
| 7 | 0% | 72% | |
| 8 | 0% | 72% | |
| 9 | 0% | 72% | |
| 10 | 0% | 72% | |
| 11 | 0% | 72% | |
| 12 | 0% | 72% | |
| 13 | 0% | 72% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 72% | |
| 15 | 25% | 71% | Median |
| 16 | 20% | 46% | Last Result |
| 17 | 16% | 26% | |
| 18 | 8% | 10% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 208 | 100% | 202–217 | 200–219 | 199–221 | 195–224 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 182 | 90% | 174–187 | 172–189 | 171–191 | 167–194 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 177 | 73% | 171–185 | 170–187 | 168–189 | 165–193 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 167 | 10% | 162–175 | 160–177 | 158–178 | 155–182 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 154 | 0% | 145–159 | 143–161 | 141–163 | 138–166 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 151 | 0% | 142–156 | 140–158 | 138–159 | 135–162 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 139 | 0% | 132–146 | 130–147 | 130–148 | 127–151 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 136 | 0% | 131–143 | 130–145 | 128–146 | 126–150 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 130 | 0% | 126–135 | 122–137 | 120–139 | 118–143 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 130 | 0% | 126–134 | 121–136 | 120–137 | 118–142 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 123 | 0% | 113–128 | 110–129 | 109–131 | 106–133 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 99 | 0% | 94–104 | 93–106 | 92–110 | 90–113 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 99 | 0% | 94–104 | 93–105 | 92–106 | 89–110 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 197 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 198 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 199 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 200 | 3% | 97% | |
| 201 | 4% | 95% | Last Result |
| 202 | 4% | 91% | |
| 203 | 3% | 87% | |
| 204 | 7% | 84% | |
| 205 | 6% | 77% | |
| 206 | 7% | 71% | |
| 207 | 12% | 64% | |
| 208 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 209 | 9% | 46% | |
| 210 | 5% | 38% | |
| 211 | 5% | 33% | |
| 212 | 3% | 28% | |
| 213 | 3% | 25% | |
| 214 | 2% | 22% | |
| 215 | 3% | 19% | |
| 216 | 3% | 16% | |
| 217 | 4% | 13% | |
| 218 | 2% | 9% | |
| 219 | 2% | 7% | |
| 220 | 2% | 5% | |
| 221 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 222 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 223 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 224 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 225 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 164 | 0% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 169 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 171 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 172 | 3% | 97% | |
| 173 | 2% | 94% | |
| 174 | 2% | 92% | |
| 175 | 3% | 90% | Majority |
| 176 | 3% | 87% | |
| 177 | 5% | 84% | |
| 178 | 7% | 78% | |
| 179 | 5% | 71% | |
| 180 | 5% | 66% | |
| 181 | 7% | 62% | |
| 182 | 5% | 54% | |
| 183 | 7% | 49% | |
| 184 | 7% | 42% | Median |
| 185 | 14% | 34% | |
| 186 | 3% | 20% | |
| 187 | 7% | 17% | |
| 188 | 2% | 10% | |
| 189 | 3% | 8% | |
| 190 | 2% | 5% | |
| 191 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 192 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 194 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 167 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 168 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 169 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 170 | 5% | 96% | Last Result |
| 171 | 4% | 91% | |
| 172 | 6% | 87% | |
| 173 | 3% | 81% | |
| 174 | 4% | 78% | |
| 175 | 11% | 73% | Majority |
| 176 | 5% | 63% | |
| 177 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 178 | 8% | 46% | |
| 179 | 6% | 38% | |
| 180 | 4% | 32% | |
| 181 | 5% | 28% | |
| 182 | 3% | 23% | |
| 183 | 5% | 19% | |
| 184 | 2% | 15% | |
| 185 | 5% | 13% | |
| 186 | 2% | 8% | |
| 187 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 188 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 189 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 190 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 191 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 192 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 193 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 156 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 157 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 158 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 159 | 2% | 97% | |
| 160 | 3% | 95% | |
| 161 | 2% | 92% | |
| 162 | 7% | 90% | |
| 163 | 3% | 83% | |
| 164 | 14% | 80% | |
| 165 | 7% | 66% | |
| 166 | 7% | 58% | |
| 167 | 5% | 51% | Median |
| 168 | 7% | 46% | |
| 169 | 5% | 38% | |
| 170 | 5% | 34% | |
| 171 | 7% | 29% | |
| 172 | 5% | 22% | |
| 173 | 3% | 16% | |
| 174 | 3% | 13% | |
| 175 | 2% | 10% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 8% | |
| 177 | 3% | 6% | |
| 178 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 136 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 140 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 141 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 143 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 144 | 3% | 94% | |
| 145 | 5% | 92% | |
| 146 | 3% | 86% | |
| 147 | 2% | 83% | |
| 148 | 3% | 82% | |
| 149 | 5% | 78% | |
| 150 | 4% | 73% | |
| 151 | 6% | 70% | |
| 152 | 5% | 63% | |
| 153 | 4% | 59% | |
| 154 | 11% | 55% | |
| 155 | 7% | 44% | Median |
| 156 | 8% | 37% | |
| 157 | 8% | 29% | |
| 158 | 7% | 21% | |
| 159 | 5% | 15% | |
| 160 | 3% | 9% | |
| 161 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 162 | 2% | 5% | |
| 163 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 164 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 135 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 137 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 138 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 139 | 2% | 97% | |
| 140 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 141 | 3% | 94% | |
| 142 | 2% | 91% | |
| 143 | 2% | 89% | |
| 144 | 3% | 87% | Last Result |
| 145 | 5% | 84% | |
| 146 | 6% | 78% | |
| 147 | 5% | 73% | |
| 148 | 3% | 67% | |
| 149 | 7% | 64% | |
| 150 | 5% | 57% | |
| 151 | 6% | 52% | |
| 152 | 8% | 46% | |
| 153 | 8% | 38% | Median |
| 154 | 4% | 30% | |
| 155 | 12% | 26% | |
| 156 | 5% | 14% | |
| 157 | 2% | 9% | |
| 158 | 3% | 7% | |
| 159 | 2% | 4% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 129 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 130 | 4% | 98% | |
| 131 | 2% | 95% | |
| 132 | 4% | 92% | |
| 133 | 4% | 89% | |
| 134 | 8% | 85% | |
| 135 | 8% | 77% | |
| 136 | 5% | 69% | |
| 137 | 9% | 64% | |
| 138 | 4% | 55% | Median |
| 139 | 8% | 51% | |
| 140 | 12% | 42% | |
| 141 | 5% | 30% | |
| 142 | 5% | 25% | |
| 143 | 3% | 20% | |
| 144 | 3% | 17% | |
| 145 | 4% | 14% | |
| 146 | 5% | 10% | |
| 147 | 2% | 5% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 149 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 150 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 126 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 127 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 128 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 129 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 130 | 3% | 96% | |
| 131 | 3% | 93% | |
| 132 | 4% | 90% | Last Result |
| 133 | 11% | 85% | |
| 134 | 10% | 74% | |
| 135 | 6% | 64% | |
| 136 | 9% | 57% | |
| 137 | 7% | 49% | Median |
| 138 | 8% | 42% | |
| 139 | 6% | 33% | |
| 140 | 5% | 28% | |
| 141 | 5% | 23% | |
| 142 | 6% | 18% | |
| 143 | 2% | 12% | |
| 144 | 3% | 10% | |
| 145 | 3% | 7% | |
| 146 | 2% | 4% | |
| 147 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 119 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 120 | 1.5% | 98.6% | |
| 121 | 2% | 97% | |
| 122 | 2% | 95% | |
| 123 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 125 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 126 | 3% | 91% | |
| 127 | 14% | 88% | |
| 128 | 10% | 74% | |
| 129 | 8% | 64% | Median |
| 130 | 13% | 56% | |
| 131 | 10% | 43% | |
| 132 | 10% | 34% | |
| 133 | 8% | 23% | |
| 134 | 5% | 15% | |
| 135 | 2% | 10% | |
| 136 | 3% | 8% | |
| 137 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 138 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 139 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 140 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 120 | 2% | 98% | |
| 121 | 2% | 97% | |
| 122 | 2% | 95% | |
| 123 | 0.7% | 93% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 125 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 126 | 4% | 90% | |
| 127 | 14% | 86% | |
| 128 | 10% | 72% | |
| 129 | 8% | 61% | Median |
| 130 | 13% | 53% | |
| 131 | 10% | 41% | |
| 132 | 10% | 31% | |
| 133 | 8% | 21% | |
| 134 | 5% | 13% | |
| 135 | 2% | 8% | |
| 136 | 2% | 6% | |
| 137 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 138 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 139 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 108 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 109 | 2% | 98% | |
| 110 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 111 | 3% | 95% | |
| 112 | 2% | 92% | |
| 113 | 4% | 90% | |
| 114 | 2% | 86% | |
| 115 | 3% | 84% | |
| 116 | 3% | 81% | Last Result |
| 117 | 5% | 78% | |
| 118 | 2% | 73% | |
| 119 | 5% | 71% | |
| 120 | 3% | 66% | |
| 121 | 4% | 64% | |
| 122 | 7% | 59% | |
| 123 | 11% | 53% | |
| 124 | 8% | 41% | Median |
| 125 | 7% | 34% | |
| 126 | 10% | 27% | |
| 127 | 3% | 17% | |
| 128 | 6% | 14% | |
| 129 | 4% | 8% | |
| 130 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 131 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 132 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 90 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 91 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 92 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 93 | 3% | 97% | |
| 94 | 4% | 93% | |
| 95 | 4% | 89% | |
| 96 | 7% | 85% | |
| 97 | 7% | 78% | |
| 98 | 14% | 71% | |
| 99 | 10% | 57% | Median |
| 100 | 12% | 47% | |
| 101 | 6% | 35% | |
| 102 | 10% | 29% | |
| 103 | 6% | 18% | |
| 104 | 3% | 13% | |
| 105 | 4% | 10% | |
| 106 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 107 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 110 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 112 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 90 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 91 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 92 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 93 | 4% | 96% | |
| 94 | 4% | 93% | |
| 95 | 5% | 88% | |
| 96 | 7% | 83% | |
| 97 | 7% | 76% | |
| 98 | 14% | 69% | |
| 99 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 100 | 12% | 45% | |
| 101 | 6% | 33% | Last Result |
| 102 | 10% | 26% | |
| 103 | 6% | 16% | |
| 104 | 3% | 10% | |
| 105 | 4% | 7% | |
| 106 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Inizio
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 19–26 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 2300
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.47%