Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Expressen, 2–8 January 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 30.2% | 28.8–31.7% | 28.4–32.2% | 28.0–32.5% | 27.4–33.3% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.5% | 18.3–20.8% | 17.9–21.2% | 17.6–21.5% | 17.1–22.2% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 17.1% | 15.9–18.4% | 15.6–18.7% | 15.3–19.0% | 14.8–19.6% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.2–8.9% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.8–9.4% | 6.4–9.9% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.9–8.6% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.5–9.1% | 6.1–9.6% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.1–7.8% | 5.9–8.0% | 5.7–8.2% | 5.4–8.7% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.9–5.3% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.3–6.0% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.2–4.5% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.7–5.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 111 | 105–117 | 103–119 | 101–121 | 99–124 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 71 | 66–77 | 65–79 | 64–80 | 62–83 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 62 | 58–68 | 57–69 | 55–70 | 54–73 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 30 | 26–33 | 25–34 | 25–34 | 23–37 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 28 | 25–32 | 24–32 | 24–34 | 22–35 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 25 | 22–28 | 22–29 | 21–30 | 20–32 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 17 | 0–19 | 0–20 | 0–21 | 0–22 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0–16 | 0–16 | 0–17 | 0–19 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 100 | 0.7% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 101 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 102 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 103 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 104 | 2% | 94% | |
| 105 | 3% | 92% | |
| 106 | 7% | 90% | |
| 107 | 10% | 83% | |
| 108 | 6% | 73% | |
| 109 | 6% | 68% | |
| 110 | 7% | 62% | |
| 111 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 112 | 10% | 47% | |
| 113 | 5% | 37% | |
| 114 | 5% | 32% | |
| 115 | 4% | 27% | |
| 116 | 5% | 23% | |
| 117 | 9% | 18% | |
| 118 | 2% | 9% | |
| 119 | 2% | 7% | |
| 120 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 121 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 122 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 63 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 64 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 65 | 3% | 97% | |
| 66 | 4% | 94% | |
| 67 | 4% | 90% | |
| 68 | 7% | 85% | |
| 69 | 11% | 79% | |
| 70 | 8% | 67% | |
| 71 | 9% | 59% | Median |
| 72 | 8% | 50% | |
| 73 | 11% | 42% | |
| 74 | 9% | 31% | |
| 75 | 6% | 22% | |
| 76 | 5% | 16% | |
| 77 | 4% | 12% | |
| 78 | 2% | 8% | |
| 79 | 2% | 6% | |
| 80 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 56 | 2% | 97% | |
| 57 | 3% | 96% | |
| 58 | 6% | 93% | |
| 59 | 6% | 87% | |
| 60 | 10% | 80% | |
| 61 | 11% | 70% | |
| 62 | 9% | 59% | Median |
| 63 | 8% | 49% | |
| 64 | 9% | 41% | |
| 65 | 11% | 33% | |
| 66 | 6% | 22% | |
| 67 | 5% | 16% | |
| 68 | 4% | 12% | |
| 69 | 3% | 8% | |
| 70 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 25 | 4% | 98% | |
| 26 | 7% | 94% | |
| 27 | 10% | 86% | |
| 28 | 11% | 77% | Last Result |
| 29 | 14% | 66% | |
| 30 | 22% | 52% | Median |
| 31 | 9% | 30% | |
| 32 | 9% | 21% | |
| 33 | 4% | 12% | |
| 34 | 6% | 8% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 23 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 24 | 3% | 98% | |
| 25 | 6% | 94% | |
| 26 | 14% | 89% | |
| 27 | 14% | 74% | |
| 28 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 29 | 17% | 47% | |
| 30 | 9% | 30% | |
| 31 | 9% | 21% | |
| 32 | 7% | 12% | |
| 33 | 2% | 5% | |
| 34 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 21 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 22 | 7% | 95% | |
| 23 | 9% | 89% | |
| 24 | 15% | 80% | |
| 25 | 16% | 65% | Median |
| 26 | 19% | 49% | |
| 27 | 13% | 30% | |
| 28 | 8% | 17% | |
| 29 | 5% | 9% | |
| 30 | 3% | 4% | |
| 31 | 0.8% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 90% | |
| 2 | 0% | 90% | |
| 3 | 0% | 90% | |
| 4 | 0% | 90% | |
| 5 | 0% | 90% | |
| 6 | 0% | 90% | |
| 7 | 0% | 90% | |
| 8 | 0% | 90% | |
| 9 | 0% | 90% | |
| 10 | 0% | 90% | |
| 11 | 0% | 90% | |
| 12 | 0% | 90% | |
| 13 | 0% | 90% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 90% | |
| 15 | 9% | 89% | |
| 16 | 19% | 80% | |
| 17 | 29% | 61% | Median |
| 18 | 15% | 32% | |
| 19 | 11% | 17% | |
| 20 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 21 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 22 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 69% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 31% | |
| 2 | 0% | 31% | |
| 3 | 0% | 31% | |
| 4 | 0% | 31% | |
| 5 | 0% | 31% | |
| 6 | 0% | 31% | |
| 7 | 0% | 31% | |
| 8 | 0% | 31% | |
| 9 | 0% | 31% | |
| 10 | 0% | 31% | |
| 11 | 0% | 31% | |
| 12 | 0% | 31% | |
| 13 | 0% | 31% | |
| 14 | 3% | 31% | |
| 15 | 16% | 28% | |
| 16 | 8% | 12% | Last Result |
| 17 | 3% | 5% | |
| 18 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 199 | 100% | 190–208 | 189–211 | 186–213 | 182–217 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 195 | 187 | 96% | 179–194 | 176–196 | 173–198 | 169–201 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 173 | 42% | 166–182 | 163–184 | 162–187 | 158–191 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 162 | 4% | 155–170 | 153–173 | 151–176 | 148–180 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 167 | 157 | 0.2% | 149–165 | 146–167 | 143–169 | 138–172 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 145 | 0% | 137–154 | 136–156 | 134–159 | 132–163 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 141 | 0% | 133–147 | 132–150 | 130–152 | 127–157 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 134 | 0% | 128–142 | 126–144 | 124–147 | 121–151 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 143 | 133 | 0% | 124–139 | 121–141 | 118–143 | 113–145 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 116 | 0% | 107–125 | 106–128 | 105–130 | 102–134 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet | 123 | 116 | 0% | 110–123 | 108–125 | 106–127 | 104–130 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 104 | 0% | 96–110 | 92–112 | 89–113 | 85–116 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 88 | 0% | 83–94 | 81–96 | 79–97 | 77–100 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 180 | 0% | 100% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 183 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 185 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 186 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 187 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 188 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 189 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 190 | 4% | 94% | |
| 191 | 3% | 90% | |
| 192 | 5% | 87% | |
| 193 | 2% | 82% | |
| 194 | 4% | 80% | |
| 195 | 5% | 76% | |
| 196 | 3% | 71% | |
| 197 | 8% | 68% | |
| 198 | 7% | 60% | Median |
| 199 | 4% | 53% | |
| 200 | 6% | 49% | |
| 201 | 5% | 43% | Last Result |
| 202 | 7% | 38% | |
| 203 | 3% | 31% | |
| 204 | 4% | 27% | |
| 205 | 6% | 23% | |
| 206 | 6% | 18% | |
| 207 | 2% | 12% | |
| 208 | 2% | 10% | |
| 209 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 210 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 211 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 212 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 213 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 214 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 215 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 216 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 217 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 218 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 219 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 165 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 170 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 172 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 174 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 175 | 0.8% | 96% | Majority |
| 176 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 177 | 2% | 94% | |
| 178 | 1.5% | 92% | |
| 179 | 3% | 90% | |
| 180 | 3% | 87% | |
| 181 | 4% | 84% | |
| 182 | 6% | 80% | |
| 183 | 4% | 74% | Median |
| 184 | 7% | 70% | |
| 185 | 6% | 64% | |
| 186 | 7% | 57% | |
| 187 | 5% | 51% | |
| 188 | 8% | 46% | |
| 189 | 8% | 38% | |
| 190 | 4% | 30% | |
| 191 | 7% | 26% | |
| 192 | 3% | 19% | |
| 193 | 5% | 15% | |
| 194 | 3% | 11% | |
| 195 | 2% | 8% | Last Result |
| 196 | 2% | 6% | |
| 197 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 198 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 199 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 200 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 160 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 161 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 162 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 163 | 2% | 97% | |
| 164 | 2% | 95% | |
| 165 | 1.5% | 93% | |
| 166 | 4% | 92% | |
| 167 | 4% | 88% | |
| 168 | 4% | 84% | |
| 169 | 5% | 80% | |
| 170 | 5% | 76% | Last Result |
| 171 | 9% | 71% | |
| 172 | 4% | 62% | |
| 173 | 8% | 58% | Median |
| 174 | 7% | 49% | |
| 175 | 4% | 42% | Majority |
| 176 | 5% | 39% | |
| 177 | 4% | 34% | |
| 178 | 5% | 30% | |
| 179 | 4% | 24% | |
| 180 | 4% | 20% | |
| 181 | 3% | 16% | |
| 182 | 4% | 13% | |
| 183 | 2% | 9% | |
| 184 | 2% | 6% | |
| 185 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 186 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 188 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 189 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 191 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 148 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 149 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 151 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 152 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 153 | 2% | 96% | |
| 154 | 2% | 94% | Last Result |
| 155 | 3% | 92% | |
| 156 | 5% | 89% | |
| 157 | 3% | 84% | |
| 158 | 7% | 81% | |
| 159 | 4% | 74% | |
| 160 | 8% | 70% | |
| 161 | 8% | 62% | Median |
| 162 | 5% | 54% | |
| 163 | 7% | 49% | |
| 164 | 6% | 43% | |
| 165 | 7% | 36% | |
| 166 | 4% | 30% | |
| 167 | 6% | 26% | |
| 168 | 4% | 20% | |
| 169 | 3% | 16% | |
| 170 | 3% | 13% | |
| 171 | 1.5% | 10% | |
| 172 | 2% | 8% | |
| 173 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 174 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 175 | 1.1% | 4% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 177 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 179 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 135 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 141 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 142 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 143 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 145 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 146 | 1.5% | 95% | |
| 147 | 2% | 94% | |
| 148 | 2% | 92% | |
| 149 | 2% | 90% | |
| 150 | 5% | 88% | |
| 151 | 2% | 83% | |
| 152 | 5% | 81% | |
| 153 | 4% | 76% | Median |
| 154 | 7% | 72% | |
| 155 | 5% | 65% | |
| 156 | 7% | 59% | |
| 157 | 4% | 52% | |
| 158 | 6% | 48% | |
| 159 | 7% | 42% | |
| 160 | 6% | 35% | |
| 161 | 4% | 29% | |
| 162 | 3% | 25% | |
| 163 | 6% | 22% | |
| 164 | 3% | 16% | |
| 165 | 4% | 13% | |
| 166 | 2% | 8% | |
| 167 | 2% | 6% | Last Result |
| 168 | 2% | 5% | |
| 169 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 170 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 171 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 132 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 133 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 134 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 135 | 2% | 97% | |
| 136 | 2% | 96% | |
| 137 | 4% | 94% | |
| 138 | 5% | 90% | |
| 139 | 3% | 85% | |
| 140 | 2% | 82% | |
| 141 | 8% | 80% | Median |
| 142 | 8% | 72% | |
| 143 | 6% | 64% | |
| 144 | 3% | 58% | Last Result |
| 145 | 5% | 55% | |
| 146 | 7% | 50% | |
| 147 | 8% | 43% | |
| 148 | 5% | 35% | |
| 149 | 3% | 29% | |
| 150 | 3% | 26% | |
| 151 | 6% | 23% | |
| 152 | 3% | 18% | |
| 153 | 4% | 15% | |
| 154 | 2% | 11% | |
| 155 | 3% | 9% | |
| 156 | 2% | 6% | |
| 157 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 158 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 159 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 128 | 0.8% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 129 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 130 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 131 | 2% | 97% | |
| 132 | 2% | 95% | |
| 133 | 4% | 93% | |
| 134 | 4% | 89% | |
| 135 | 3% | 86% | |
| 136 | 6% | 83% | |
| 137 | 8% | 77% | |
| 138 | 6% | 69% | |
| 139 | 5% | 63% | |
| 140 | 3% | 58% | |
| 141 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 142 | 9% | 44% | |
| 143 | 6% | 36% | |
| 144 | 3% | 30% | |
| 145 | 5% | 27% | |
| 146 | 7% | 22% | |
| 147 | 6% | 15% | |
| 148 | 2% | 9% | |
| 149 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 150 | 2% | 6% | |
| 151 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 152 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 122 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 123 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 124 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 125 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 126 | 2% | 96% | |
| 127 | 2% | 94% | |
| 128 | 5% | 91% | |
| 129 | 6% | 86% | |
| 130 | 6% | 80% | |
| 131 | 6% | 74% | |
| 132 | 7% | 68% | Last Result |
| 133 | 5% | 62% | Median |
| 134 | 10% | 57% | |
| 135 | 11% | 46% | |
| 136 | 4% | 36% | |
| 137 | 5% | 32% | |
| 138 | 7% | 27% | |
| 139 | 3% | 19% | |
| 140 | 3% | 16% | |
| 141 | 4% | 14% | |
| 142 | 3% | 10% | |
| 143 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 144 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 145 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 146 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 147 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 148 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 115 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 116 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 118 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 120 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 121 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 122 | 2% | 94% | |
| 123 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 124 | 2% | 92% | |
| 125 | 2% | 89% | |
| 126 | 4% | 87% | |
| 127 | 3% | 83% | |
| 128 | 4% | 80% | |
| 129 | 5% | 76% | |
| 130 | 6% | 71% | |
| 131 | 8% | 65% | |
| 132 | 6% | 57% | Median |
| 133 | 9% | 50% | |
| 134 | 9% | 41% | |
| 135 | 6% | 32% | |
| 136 | 5% | 25% | |
| 137 | 4% | 20% | |
| 138 | 4% | 16% | |
| 139 | 4% | 13% | |
| 140 | 2% | 8% | |
| 141 | 2% | 6% | |
| 142 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 143 | 1.2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 144 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 105 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 106 | 3% | 97% | |
| 107 | 5% | 95% | |
| 108 | 3% | 90% | |
| 109 | 3% | 87% | |
| 110 | 5% | 84% | |
| 111 | 6% | 79% | Median |
| 112 | 9% | 73% | |
| 113 | 4% | 64% | |
| 114 | 5% | 60% | |
| 115 | 4% | 56% | |
| 116 | 5% | 51% | Last Result |
| 117 | 10% | 46% | |
| 118 | 3% | 36% | |
| 119 | 3% | 33% | |
| 120 | 2% | 30% | |
| 121 | 4% | 28% | |
| 122 | 7% | 24% | |
| 123 | 3% | 17% | |
| 124 | 3% | 14% | |
| 125 | 2% | 10% | |
| 126 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 127 | 2% | 7% | |
| 128 | 2% | 5% | |
| 129 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 130 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 132 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 106 | 1.2% | 98.6% | |
| 107 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 108 | 2% | 96% | |
| 109 | 3% | 95% | |
| 110 | 2% | 92% | |
| 111 | 4% | 90% | |
| 112 | 6% | 86% | |
| 113 | 8% | 80% | |
| 114 | 7% | 72% | |
| 115 | 7% | 65% | Median |
| 116 | 11% | 58% | |
| 117 | 11% | 47% | |
| 118 | 3% | 36% | |
| 119 | 7% | 33% | |
| 120 | 5% | 25% | |
| 121 | 5% | 21% | |
| 122 | 5% | 16% | |
| 123 | 2% | 12% | Last Result |
| 124 | 2% | 9% | |
| 125 | 2% | 7% | |
| 126 | 2% | 4% | |
| 127 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 128 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 129 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 86 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 89 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 90 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 91 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 92 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 93 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 94 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 95 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 96 | 3% | 91% | |
| 97 | 3% | 88% | |
| 98 | 3% | 85% | |
| 99 | 3% | 82% | |
| 100 | 2% | 79% | |
| 101 | 7% | 78% | |
| 102 | 7% | 71% | |
| 103 | 11% | 64% | |
| 104 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 105 | 8% | 47% | |
| 106 | 9% | 39% | |
| 107 | 6% | 30% | |
| 108 | 5% | 24% | |
| 109 | 7% | 19% | |
| 110 | 3% | 12% | |
| 111 | 4% | 10% | |
| 112 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 113 | 2% | 5% | |
| 114 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 79 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 80 | 2% | 97% | |
| 81 | 2% | 96% | |
| 82 | 3% | 93% | |
| 83 | 4% | 90% | |
| 84 | 6% | 86% | |
| 85 | 5% | 80% | |
| 86 | 12% | 75% | |
| 87 | 10% | 63% | Median |
| 88 | 9% | 53% | |
| 89 | 9% | 44% | |
| 90 | 8% | 35% | |
| 91 | 6% | 27% | |
| 92 | 4% | 21% | |
| 93 | 5% | 17% | |
| 94 | 4% | 12% | |
| 95 | 2% | 8% | |
| 96 | 2% | 5% | |
| 97 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 98 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demoskop
- Commissioner(s): Expressen
- Fieldwork period: 2–8 January 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1614
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.45%