Opinion Poll by SKOP, 3–17 January 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 30.2% | 28.5–32.0% | 28.0–32.5% | 27.6–33.0% | 26.8–33.8% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 18.1% | 16.7–19.6% | 16.3–20.1% | 15.9–20.5% | 15.3–21.2% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 16.9% | 15.6–18.5% | 15.2–18.9% | 14.8–19.3% | 14.2–20.0% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 9.5% | 8.5–10.7% | 8.2–11.1% | 7.9–11.4% | 7.4–12.0% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.9–10.1% | 7.6–10.4% | 7.3–10.7% | 6.9–11.3% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.4–9.5% | 7.1–9.8% | 6.8–10.1% | 6.4–10.7% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.8% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.3–4.3% | 2.0–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 115 | 108–121 | 106–122 | 103–124 | 98–127 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 65 | 61–70 | 59–72 | 57–74 | 55–77 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 63 | 57–68 | 56–70 | 54–71 | 52–74 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 37 | 33–41 | 31–42 | 31–43 | 28–45 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 33 | 29–37 | 28–38 | 28–39 | 25–42 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 30 | 26–34 | 25–35 | 24–36 | 23–38 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0–16 | 0–17 | 0–18 | 0–20 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0–14 | 0–16 | 0–17 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 103 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 104 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 105 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 106 | 2% | 95% | |
| 107 | 2% | 93% | |
| 108 | 3% | 91% | |
| 109 | 5% | 88% | |
| 110 | 5% | 82% | |
| 111 | 6% | 77% | |
| 112 | 8% | 71% | |
| 113 | 4% | 62% | |
| 114 | 7% | 58% | |
| 115 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 116 | 8% | 43% | |
| 117 | 6% | 34% | |
| 118 | 7% | 29% | |
| 119 | 6% | 21% | |
| 120 | 5% | 15% | |
| 121 | 3% | 11% | |
| 122 | 3% | 8% | |
| 123 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 124 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 125 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 57 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 58 | 2% | 97% | |
| 59 | 2% | 96% | |
| 60 | 2% | 94% | |
| 61 | 10% | 91% | |
| 62 | 12% | 81% | |
| 63 | 8% | 70% | |
| 64 | 7% | 62% | |
| 65 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 66 | 11% | 41% | |
| 67 | 3% | 30% | |
| 68 | 4% | 27% | |
| 69 | 8% | 22% | |
| 70 | 6% | 15% | Last Result |
| 71 | 3% | 8% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 73 | 2% | 5% | |
| 74 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 54 | 1.3% | 98.6% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 56 | 3% | 96% | |
| 57 | 4% | 93% | |
| 58 | 6% | 90% | |
| 59 | 8% | 84% | |
| 60 | 6% | 76% | |
| 61 | 11% | 69% | |
| 62 | 7% | 59% | Last Result |
| 63 | 10% | 51% | Median |
| 64 | 8% | 41% | |
| 65 | 8% | 34% | |
| 66 | 4% | 26% | |
| 67 | 8% | 21% | |
| 68 | 5% | 14% | |
| 69 | 2% | 9% | |
| 70 | 3% | 6% | |
| 71 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 30 | 0.9% | 98.6% | |
| 31 | 3% | 98% | |
| 32 | 4% | 95% | |
| 33 | 5% | 91% | |
| 34 | 9% | 86% | |
| 35 | 13% | 77% | |
| 36 | 12% | 64% | |
| 37 | 19% | 52% | Median |
| 38 | 9% | 34% | |
| 39 | 7% | 25% | |
| 40 | 8% | 19% | |
| 41 | 3% | 11% | |
| 42 | 4% | 7% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 27 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 28 | 6% | 98% | Last Result |
| 29 | 6% | 91% | |
| 30 | 12% | 86% | |
| 31 | 10% | 73% | |
| 32 | 9% | 63% | |
| 33 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 34 | 10% | 45% | |
| 35 | 11% | 36% | |
| 36 | 11% | 24% | |
| 37 | 6% | 13% | |
| 38 | 4% | 7% | |
| 39 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 25 | 3% | 97% | |
| 26 | 6% | 94% | |
| 27 | 10% | 89% | |
| 28 | 12% | 78% | |
| 29 | 12% | 67% | |
| 30 | 11% | 55% | Median |
| 31 | 18% | 44% | Last Result |
| 32 | 8% | 26% | |
| 33 | 6% | 18% | |
| 34 | 6% | 12% | |
| 35 | 3% | 6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 58% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 42% | |
| 2 | 0% | 42% | |
| 3 | 0% | 42% | |
| 4 | 0% | 42% | |
| 5 | 0% | 42% | |
| 6 | 0% | 42% | |
| 7 | 0% | 42% | |
| 8 | 0% | 42% | |
| 9 | 0% | 42% | |
| 10 | 0% | 42% | |
| 11 | 0% | 42% | |
| 12 | 0% | 42% | |
| 13 | 0% | 42% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 42% | |
| 15 | 19% | 41% | |
| 16 | 12% | 22% | |
| 17 | 6% | 10% | |
| 18 | 2% | 4% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0% | 5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 5% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 15 | 2% | 5% | |
| 16 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 210 | 100% | 199–219 | 196–221 | 195–223 | 190–226 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 195 | 184 | 94% | 176–193 | 174–195 | 172–197 | 169–201 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 180 | 72% | 170–188 | 169–191 | 166–193 | 161–196 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 165 | 6% | 156–173 | 154–175 | 152–177 | 148–180 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 167 | 152 | 0.1% | 143–160 | 141–163 | 138–165 | 135–170 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 148 | 0% | 141–156 | 138–158 | 136–160 | 131–164 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 148 | 0% | 140–154 | 137–157 | 135–158 | 129–161 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 143 | 138 | 0% | 130–146 | 127–150 | 125–152 | 123–157 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet | 123 | 132 | 0% | 124–139 | 122–141 | 120–144 | 116–147 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 128 | 0% | 121–135 | 118–137 | 117–139 | 113–142 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 115 | 0% | 108–122 | 106–124 | 104–126 | 99–131 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 101 | 0% | 95–109 | 93–110 | 92–113 | 90–125 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 95 | 0% | 89–101 | 87–102 | 86–104 | 84–109 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 184 | 0% | 100% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 186 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 187 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 192 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 194 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 195 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 196 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 197 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 198 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 199 | 4% | 92% | |
| 200 | 4% | 88% | |
| 201 | 2% | 84% | Last Result |
| 202 | 3% | 82% | |
| 203 | 3% | 79% | |
| 204 | 6% | 76% | |
| 205 | 3% | 70% | |
| 206 | 5% | 67% | |
| 207 | 4% | 62% | |
| 208 | 4% | 58% | |
| 209 | 3% | 54% | |
| 210 | 4% | 51% | Median |
| 211 | 4% | 47% | |
| 212 | 5% | 42% | |
| 213 | 4% | 37% | |
| 214 | 7% | 34% | |
| 215 | 3% | 26% | |
| 216 | 4% | 24% | |
| 217 | 3% | 19% | |
| 218 | 3% | 16% | |
| 219 | 5% | 14% | |
| 220 | 3% | 9% | |
| 221 | 2% | 6% | |
| 222 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 223 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 224 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 225 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 226 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 164 | 0% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 171 | 0.8% | 98.5% | |
| 172 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 173 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 174 | 2% | 95% | |
| 175 | 2% | 94% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 92% | |
| 177 | 3% | 90% | |
| 178 | 3% | 87% | Median |
| 179 | 4% | 84% | |
| 180 | 7% | 80% | |
| 181 | 4% | 73% | |
| 182 | 8% | 69% | |
| 183 | 4% | 61% | |
| 184 | 8% | 57% | |
| 185 | 5% | 49% | |
| 186 | 3% | 44% | |
| 187 | 8% | 41% | |
| 188 | 5% | 33% | |
| 189 | 5% | 28% | |
| 190 | 3% | 23% | |
| 191 | 6% | 20% | |
| 192 | 4% | 14% | |
| 193 | 2% | 10% | |
| 194 | 2% | 8% | |
| 195 | 1.4% | 6% | Last Result |
| 196 | 2% | 4% | |
| 197 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 198 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 199 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 200 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 201 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 164 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 166 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 167 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 168 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 169 | 2% | 95% | |
| 170 | 4% | 93% | Last Result |
| 171 | 2% | 89% | |
| 172 | 4% | 87% | |
| 173 | 6% | 82% | |
| 174 | 5% | 77% | |
| 175 | 4% | 72% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 68% | |
| 177 | 3% | 64% | |
| 178 | 4% | 62% | |
| 179 | 6% | 57% | |
| 180 | 7% | 52% | Median |
| 181 | 4% | 45% | |
| 182 | 4% | 41% | |
| 183 | 7% | 36% | |
| 184 | 5% | 29% | |
| 185 | 6% | 24% | |
| 186 | 4% | 19% | |
| 187 | 4% | 15% | |
| 188 | 3% | 11% | |
| 189 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 190 | 2% | 7% | |
| 191 | 2% | 5% | |
| 192 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 194 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 148 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 151 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 153 | 2% | 97% | |
| 154 | 1.4% | 96% | Last Result |
| 155 | 2% | 94% | |
| 156 | 2% | 92% | |
| 157 | 4% | 90% | |
| 158 | 6% | 86% | |
| 159 | 3% | 80% | |
| 160 | 5% | 77% | |
| 161 | 5% | 72% | |
| 162 | 8% | 67% | |
| 163 | 3% | 59% | |
| 164 | 5% | 56% | |
| 165 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 166 | 4% | 43% | |
| 167 | 8% | 39% | |
| 168 | 4% | 31% | |
| 169 | 7% | 27% | |
| 170 | 4% | 20% | |
| 171 | 3% | 16% | |
| 172 | 3% | 13% | |
| 173 | 2% | 10% | |
| 174 | 2% | 8% | |
| 175 | 2% | 6% | Majority |
| 176 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 177 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 178 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 137 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 138 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 139 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 140 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 141 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 142 | 4% | 94% | |
| 143 | 4% | 90% | |
| 144 | 3% | 87% | |
| 145 | 3% | 83% | Median |
| 146 | 3% | 81% | |
| 147 | 3% | 78% | |
| 148 | 7% | 75% | |
| 149 | 7% | 68% | |
| 150 | 4% | 61% | |
| 151 | 5% | 57% | |
| 152 | 5% | 52% | |
| 153 | 8% | 47% | |
| 154 | 7% | 40% | |
| 155 | 4% | 32% | |
| 156 | 3% | 28% | |
| 157 | 5% | 25% | |
| 158 | 5% | 20% | |
| 159 | 4% | 15% | |
| 160 | 1.2% | 11% | |
| 161 | 3% | 10% | |
| 162 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 163 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 164 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 165 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 166 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 135 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 136 | 2% | 98% | |
| 137 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 138 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 139 | 2% | 95% | |
| 140 | 2% | 92% | |
| 141 | 1.3% | 90% | |
| 142 | 3% | 89% | |
| 143 | 6% | 86% | |
| 144 | 8% | 80% | Last Result |
| 145 | 6% | 72% | |
| 146 | 6% | 66% | |
| 147 | 5% | 60% | |
| 148 | 6% | 55% | Median |
| 149 | 8% | 49% | |
| 150 | 7% | 41% | |
| 151 | 5% | 34% | |
| 152 | 7% | 29% | |
| 153 | 5% | 21% | |
| 154 | 3% | 16% | |
| 155 | 2% | 13% | |
| 156 | 3% | 10% | |
| 157 | 2% | 8% | |
| 158 | 2% | 6% | |
| 159 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 161 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 134 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 135 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 136 | 2% | 97% | |
| 137 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 138 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 139 | 3% | 93% | |
| 140 | 2% | 90% | |
| 141 | 1.5% | 88% | |
| 142 | 4% | 86% | |
| 143 | 7% | 83% | |
| 144 | 8% | 76% | |
| 145 | 6% | 68% | |
| 146 | 6% | 62% | |
| 147 | 5% | 56% | |
| 148 | 6% | 51% | Median |
| 149 | 8% | 44% | |
| 150 | 7% | 37% | |
| 151 | 5% | 30% | |
| 152 | 7% | 25% | |
| 153 | 5% | 18% | |
| 154 | 3% | 13% | |
| 155 | 2% | 10% | |
| 156 | 3% | 8% | |
| 157 | 2% | 5% | |
| 158 | 2% | 3% | |
| 159 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 119 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 125 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 126 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 127 | 2% | 96% | |
| 128 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 129 | 2% | 93% | |
| 130 | 2% | 91% | |
| 131 | 2% | 88% | |
| 132 | 4% | 86% | Median |
| 133 | 5% | 82% | |
| 134 | 8% | 77% | |
| 135 | 4% | 69% | |
| 136 | 8% | 65% | |
| 137 | 4% | 57% | |
| 138 | 7% | 54% | |
| 139 | 5% | 47% | |
| 140 | 5% | 42% | |
| 141 | 8% | 37% | |
| 142 | 6% | 29% | |
| 143 | 2% | 23% | Last Result |
| 144 | 3% | 20% | |
| 145 | 3% | 17% | |
| 146 | 5% | 15% | |
| 147 | 2% | 10% | |
| 148 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 149 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 150 | 2% | 6% | |
| 151 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 152 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 120 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 121 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 122 | 2% | 96% | |
| 123 | 3% | 94% | Last Result |
| 124 | 3% | 92% | |
| 125 | 4% | 89% | |
| 126 | 8% | 85% | |
| 127 | 6% | 76% | |
| 128 | 4% | 70% | |
| 129 | 3% | 66% | |
| 130 | 7% | 63% | |
| 131 | 3% | 56% | |
| 132 | 5% | 53% | Median |
| 133 | 6% | 47% | |
| 134 | 8% | 41% | |
| 135 | 5% | 33% | |
| 136 | 8% | 28% | |
| 137 | 3% | 20% | |
| 138 | 6% | 17% | |
| 139 | 2% | 11% | |
| 140 | 3% | 9% | |
| 141 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 142 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 143 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 144 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 145 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 115 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 116 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 117 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 118 | 3% | 97% | |
| 119 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 120 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 121 | 6% | 92% | |
| 122 | 4% | 86% | |
| 123 | 4% | 82% | |
| 124 | 8% | 78% | |
| 125 | 7% | 70% | |
| 126 | 6% | 63% | |
| 127 | 7% | 57% | |
| 128 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 129 | 7% | 45% | |
| 130 | 7% | 39% | |
| 131 | 5% | 32% | |
| 132 | 6% | 27% | Last Result |
| 133 | 5% | 20% | |
| 134 | 4% | 16% | |
| 135 | 3% | 12% | |
| 136 | 3% | 9% | |
| 137 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 138 | 2% | 5% | |
| 139 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 140 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 104 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 105 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 106 | 2% | 96% | |
| 107 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 108 | 3% | 93% | |
| 109 | 5% | 90% | |
| 110 | 5% | 85% | |
| 111 | 6% | 80% | |
| 112 | 8% | 74% | |
| 113 | 4% | 66% | |
| 114 | 7% | 62% | |
| 115 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 116 | 8% | 47% | Last Result |
| 117 | 6% | 39% | |
| 118 | 7% | 33% | |
| 119 | 6% | 26% | |
| 120 | 5% | 20% | |
| 121 | 3% | 15% | |
| 122 | 4% | 12% | |
| 123 | 2% | 8% | |
| 124 | 2% | 7% | |
| 125 | 2% | 5% | |
| 126 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 127 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 129 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 91 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 92 | 2% | 98% | |
| 93 | 2% | 97% | |
| 94 | 4% | 94% | |
| 95 | 4% | 91% | Median |
| 96 | 11% | 87% | |
| 97 | 7% | 75% | |
| 98 | 5% | 68% | |
| 99 | 8% | 64% | |
| 100 | 6% | 56% | |
| 101 | 4% | 50% | |
| 102 | 4% | 46% | |
| 103 | 2% | 42% | |
| 104 | 4% | 40% | |
| 105 | 10% | 36% | |
| 106 | 5% | 26% | |
| 107 | 2% | 21% | |
| 108 | 3% | 19% | |
| 109 | 8% | 15% | |
| 110 | 4% | 7% | |
| 111 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 113 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0% | 2% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 85 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 87 | 3% | 97% | |
| 88 | 2% | 94% | |
| 89 | 3% | 93% | |
| 90 | 10% | 90% | |
| 91 | 6% | 80% | |
| 92 | 5% | 74% | |
| 93 | 9% | 69% | |
| 94 | 6% | 60% | |
| 95 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 96 | 12% | 48% | |
| 97 | 7% | 36% | |
| 98 | 5% | 29% | |
| 99 | 7% | 24% | |
| 100 | 6% | 17% | |
| 101 | 4% | 11% | Last Result |
| 102 | 3% | 7% | |
| 103 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 104 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 105 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SKOP
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3–17 January 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1116
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.46%