Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 14–17 January 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 29.3% | 28.4–30.2% | 28.2–30.4% | 27.9–30.7% | 27.5–31.1% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.9% | 19.1–20.7% | 18.9–20.9% | 18.7–21.1% | 18.4–21.5% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 19.5% | 18.7–20.3% | 18.5–20.5% | 18.3–20.7% | 18.0–21.1% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.0–9.1% | 7.8–9.2% | 7.7–9.4% | 7.5–9.7% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.0–8.0% | 6.8–8.2% | 6.7–8.3% | 6.5–8.6% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.4–7.4% | 6.3–7.6% | 6.2–7.7% | 6.0–8.0% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.5–4.3% | 3.4–4.4% | 3.4–4.5% | 3.2–4.7% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.2–4.0% | 3.2–4.1% | 3.1–4.2% | 2.9–4.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 109 | 104–114 | 104–115 | 102–116 | 99–117 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 75 | 71–77 | 70–80 | 68–80 | 67–81 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 73 | 69–77 | 68–77 | 67–78 | 65–80 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 32 | 29–34 | 29–35 | 28–35 | 28–36 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 28 | 26–30 | 25–31 | 25–31 | 24–32 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 26 | 24–28 | 23–28 | 23–29 | 22–30 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0–16 | 0–16 | 0–17 | 0–17 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–15 | 0–16 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0.6% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 102 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 103 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 104 | 7% | 96% | |
| 105 | 8% | 89% | |
| 106 | 6% | 81% | |
| 107 | 6% | 75% | |
| 108 | 12% | 69% | |
| 109 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 110 | 5% | 50% | |
| 111 | 9% | 44% | |
| 112 | 15% | 35% | |
| 113 | 7% | 20% | |
| 114 | 5% | 14% | |
| 115 | 4% | 9% | |
| 116 | 4% | 5% | |
| 117 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 69 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 70 | 4% | 96% | |
| 71 | 11% | 92% | |
| 72 | 12% | 81% | |
| 73 | 6% | 69% | |
| 74 | 5% | 63% | |
| 75 | 21% | 58% | Median |
| 76 | 23% | 37% | |
| 77 | 6% | 14% | |
| 78 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 79 | 3% | 8% | |
| 80 | 3% | 5% | |
| 81 | 2% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 68 | 6% | 97% | |
| 69 | 7% | 91% | |
| 70 | 8% | 84% | Last Result |
| 71 | 11% | 76% | |
| 72 | 11% | 65% | |
| 73 | 17% | 54% | Median |
| 74 | 10% | 37% | |
| 75 | 9% | 27% | |
| 76 | 7% | 18% | |
| 77 | 6% | 10% | |
| 78 | 3% | 5% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 3% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 29 | 8% | 97% | |
| 30 | 12% | 89% | |
| 31 | 21% | 77% | |
| 32 | 24% | 56% | Median |
| 33 | 14% | 33% | |
| 34 | 14% | 19% | |
| 35 | 3% | 6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 4% | 98% | |
| 26 | 14% | 94% | |
| 27 | 21% | 81% | |
| 28 | 22% | 60% | Median |
| 29 | 17% | 38% | |
| 30 | 14% | 20% | |
| 31 | 5% | 7% | |
| 32 | 2% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 5% | 98% | |
| 24 | 12% | 93% | |
| 25 | 23% | 82% | |
| 26 | 22% | 58% | Median |
| 27 | 18% | 36% | |
| 28 | 13% | 18% | |
| 29 | 3% | 4% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 63% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 37% | |
| 2 | 0% | 37% | |
| 3 | 0% | 37% | |
| 4 | 0% | 37% | |
| 5 | 0% | 37% | |
| 6 | 0% | 37% | |
| 7 | 0% | 37% | |
| 8 | 0% | 37% | |
| 9 | 0% | 37% | |
| 10 | 0% | 37% | |
| 11 | 0% | 37% | |
| 12 | 0% | 37% | |
| 13 | 0% | 37% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 37% | |
| 15 | 23% | 36% | |
| 16 | 10% | 12% | Last Result |
| 17 | 3% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 9% | |
| 10 | 0% | 9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 9% | |
| 14 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 15 | 6% | 8% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 209 | 100% | 200–215 | 199–216 | 197–217 | 192–218 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 183 | 91% | 175–189 | 173–190 | 172–191 | 167–192 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 173 | 44% | 167–181 | 166–182 | 166–184 | 164–188 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 176 | 56% | 168–182 | 167–183 | 165–183 | 161–185 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 146 | 0% | 140–154 | 138–156 | 137–157 | 134–159 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 147 | 0% | 141–153 | 139–154 | 138–154 | 135–157 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 141 | 0% | 135–150 | 134–152 | 133–154 | 131–159 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 142 | 0% | 135–147 | 134–148 | 133–149 | 130–151 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 143 | 128 | 0% | 122–134 | 121–137 | 120–139 | 118–142 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet | 123 | 127 | 0% | 121–132 | 120–133 | 118–134 | 115–135 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 113 | 0% | 108–123 | 107–124 | 106–126 | 103–128 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 99 | 0% | 95–105 | 93–110 | 93–112 | 91–115 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 99 | 0% | 94–103 | 93–104 | 92–105 | 90–106 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 189 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 193 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 194 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 197 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 198 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 199 | 4% | 96% | |
| 200 | 3% | 92% | |
| 201 | 7% | 89% | Last Result |
| 202 | 5% | 82% | |
| 203 | 4% | 77% | |
| 204 | 4% | 73% | |
| 205 | 6% | 69% | |
| 206 | 4% | 63% | |
| 207 | 3% | 60% | |
| 208 | 3% | 56% | Median |
| 209 | 4% | 53% | |
| 210 | 6% | 49% | |
| 211 | 10% | 43% | |
| 212 | 7% | 33% | |
| 213 | 8% | 26% | |
| 214 | 6% | 17% | |
| 215 | 4% | 12% | |
| 216 | 5% | 8% | |
| 217 | 2% | 3% | |
| 218 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 165 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 172 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 173 | 3% | 97% | |
| 174 | 3% | 94% | |
| 175 | 4% | 91% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 86% | |
| 177 | 5% | 82% | |
| 178 | 7% | 77% | |
| 179 | 4% | 70% | |
| 180 | 5% | 66% | |
| 181 | 5% | 61% | |
| 182 | 5% | 56% | Median |
| 183 | 2% | 51% | |
| 184 | 6% | 48% | |
| 185 | 13% | 42% | |
| 186 | 8% | 29% | |
| 187 | 5% | 20% | |
| 188 | 4% | 15% | |
| 189 | 3% | 12% | |
| 190 | 5% | 8% | |
| 191 | 2% | 3% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 165 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 166 | 3% | 98% | |
| 167 | 5% | 95% | Median |
| 168 | 5% | 90% | |
| 169 | 3% | 85% | |
| 170 | 8% | 82% | |
| 171 | 8% | 74% | |
| 172 | 8% | 66% | |
| 173 | 11% | 58% | |
| 174 | 3% | 47% | |
| 175 | 5% | 44% | Majority |
| 176 | 7% | 39% | |
| 177 | 5% | 32% | |
| 178 | 7% | 27% | |
| 179 | 5% | 20% | |
| 180 | 3% | 15% | |
| 181 | 3% | 11% | |
| 182 | 4% | 8% | |
| 183 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 184 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 185 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 188 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 162 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 164 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 165 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 166 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 167 | 4% | 95% | |
| 168 | 3% | 92% | |
| 169 | 3% | 89% | |
| 170 | 5% | 85% | |
| 171 | 7% | 80% | |
| 172 | 5% | 73% | |
| 173 | 7% | 68% | |
| 174 | 5% | 61% | |
| 175 | 3% | 56% | Majority |
| 176 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 177 | 8% | 42% | |
| 178 | 8% | 34% | |
| 179 | 8% | 26% | |
| 180 | 3% | 18% | |
| 181 | 5% | 15% | |
| 182 | 5% | 10% | |
| 183 | 3% | 5% | |
| 184 | 2% | 2% | |
| 185 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 135 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 137 | 2% | 98% | |
| 138 | 2% | 97% | |
| 139 | 2% | 95% | |
| 140 | 4% | 93% | |
| 141 | 4% | 89% | Median |
| 142 | 7% | 84% | |
| 143 | 5% | 77% | |
| 144 | 6% | 72% | Last Result |
| 145 | 12% | 66% | |
| 146 | 8% | 54% | |
| 147 | 6% | 46% | |
| 148 | 4% | 40% | |
| 149 | 4% | 36% | |
| 150 | 4% | 32% | |
| 151 | 2% | 28% | |
| 152 | 8% | 26% | |
| 153 | 5% | 17% | |
| 154 | 3% | 12% | |
| 155 | 3% | 9% | |
| 156 | 2% | 6% | |
| 157 | 2% | 3% | |
| 158 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 135 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 137 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 138 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 139 | 2% | 97% | |
| 140 | 3% | 95% | |
| 141 | 4% | 92% | |
| 142 | 5% | 88% | |
| 143 | 5% | 82% | |
| 144 | 8% | 78% | |
| 145 | 7% | 70% | |
| 146 | 7% | 63% | |
| 147 | 6% | 56% | |
| 148 | 11% | 49% | Median |
| 149 | 9% | 39% | |
| 150 | 6% | 30% | |
| 151 | 8% | 24% | |
| 152 | 4% | 15% | |
| 153 | 4% | 11% | |
| 154 | 5% | 7% | |
| 155 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 156 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 132 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 133 | 1.5% | 98.6% | |
| 134 | 3% | 97% | |
| 135 | 5% | 94% | Median |
| 136 | 6% | 90% | |
| 137 | 9% | 84% | |
| 138 | 6% | 75% | |
| 139 | 5% | 69% | |
| 140 | 11% | 64% | |
| 141 | 6% | 53% | |
| 142 | 2% | 46% | |
| 143 | 3% | 44% | |
| 144 | 3% | 41% | |
| 145 | 5% | 38% | |
| 146 | 6% | 34% | |
| 147 | 7% | 27% | |
| 148 | 6% | 20% | |
| 149 | 4% | 14% | |
| 150 | 3% | 10% | |
| 151 | 2% | 7% | |
| 152 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 153 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 154 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 131 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 132 | 0.8% | 98.5% | |
| 133 | 2% | 98% | |
| 134 | 3% | 95% | |
| 135 | 4% | 93% | |
| 136 | 6% | 88% | |
| 137 | 7% | 82% | |
| 138 | 6% | 75% | |
| 139 | 5% | 69% | |
| 140 | 7% | 64% | |
| 141 | 6% | 57% | Median |
| 142 | 9% | 51% | |
| 143 | 6% | 42% | |
| 144 | 6% | 36% | |
| 145 | 12% | 31% | |
| 146 | 8% | 19% | |
| 147 | 5% | 11% | |
| 148 | 3% | 6% | |
| 149 | 2% | 3% | |
| 150 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 151 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 115 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 118 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 119 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 120 | 2% | 98% | |
| 121 | 5% | 96% | |
| 122 | 3% | 91% | |
| 123 | 5% | 88% | |
| 124 | 4% | 82% | |
| 125 | 10% | 78% | |
| 126 | 6% | 68% | |
| 127 | 7% | 62% | Median |
| 128 | 17% | 55% | |
| 129 | 6% | 38% | |
| 130 | 5% | 32% | |
| 131 | 6% | 27% | |
| 132 | 7% | 21% | |
| 133 | 3% | 13% | |
| 134 | 3% | 11% | |
| 135 | 2% | 8% | |
| 136 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 137 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 138 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 139 | 2% | 4% | |
| 140 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 142 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 144 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 118 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 119 | 2% | 97% | |
| 120 | 3% | 96% | |
| 121 | 5% | 93% | |
| 122 | 4% | 87% | |
| 123 | 6% | 83% | Last Result |
| 124 | 6% | 77% | |
| 125 | 11% | 71% | |
| 126 | 6% | 60% | |
| 127 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 128 | 17% | 46% | |
| 129 | 6% | 29% | |
| 130 | 5% | 24% | |
| 131 | 6% | 19% | |
| 132 | 7% | 13% | |
| 133 | 3% | 6% | |
| 134 | 2% | 3% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 104 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 105 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 106 | 2% | 98% | |
| 107 | 2% | 95% | |
| 108 | 6% | 93% | |
| 109 | 4% | 87% | Median |
| 110 | 5% | 83% | |
| 111 | 8% | 79% | |
| 112 | 14% | 71% | |
| 113 | 7% | 56% | |
| 114 | 5% | 50% | |
| 115 | 4% | 44% | |
| 116 | 4% | 40% | Last Result |
| 117 | 1.2% | 36% | |
| 118 | 2% | 35% | |
| 119 | 5% | 33% | |
| 120 | 3% | 28% | |
| 121 | 7% | 25% | |
| 122 | 5% | 18% | |
| 123 | 5% | 13% | |
| 124 | 4% | 8% | |
| 125 | 2% | 4% | |
| 126 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 127 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 93 | 4% | 98% | |
| 94 | 3% | 94% | |
| 95 | 8% | 91% | |
| 96 | 7% | 84% | |
| 97 | 7% | 77% | |
| 98 | 7% | 70% | |
| 99 | 14% | 64% | Median |
| 100 | 9% | 49% | |
| 101 | 11% | 40% | |
| 102 | 5% | 29% | |
| 103 | 10% | 24% | |
| 104 | 3% | 14% | |
| 105 | 2% | 11% | |
| 106 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 107 | 0.6% | 8% | |
| 108 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 110 | 2% | 5% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 113 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 90 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 91 | 1.0% | 98.5% | |
| 92 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 93 | 5% | 96% | |
| 94 | 4% | 91% | |
| 95 | 10% | 87% | |
| 96 | 7% | 78% | |
| 97 | 7% | 70% | |
| 98 | 7% | 63% | |
| 99 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 100 | 10% | 41% | |
| 101 | 11% | 31% | Last Result |
| 102 | 5% | 20% | |
| 103 | 10% | 15% | |
| 104 | 3% | 5% | |
| 105 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 106 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Sifo
- Commissioner(s): Svenska Dagbladet
- Fieldwork period: 14–17 January 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 4317
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.58%