Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 10–20 January 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 30.0% | 28.6–31.5% | 28.2–32.0% | 27.8–32.3% | 27.1–33.1% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 18.0% | 16.8–19.3% | 16.5–19.7% | 16.2–20.0% | 15.6–20.6% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 18.0% | 16.8–19.3% | 16.5–19.7% | 16.2–20.0% | 15.6–20.6% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.2–8.9% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.8–9.4% | 6.4–9.9% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.2–8.9% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.8–9.4% | 6.4–9.9% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.2–7.9% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.5–8.8% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.7% | 4.1–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.7–6.6% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.7% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.2–5.1% | 2.9–5.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 109 | 103–115 | 101–117 | 100–118 | 97–122 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 65 | 60–70 | 59–72 | 58–73 | 56–75 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 65 | 61–70 | 59–72 | 58–73 | 56–75 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 29 | 26–32 | 25–33 | 24–34 | 23–36 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 28 | 26–32 | 25–33 | 24–34 | 23–36 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 25 | 22–29 | 21–30 | 21–30 | 20–32 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 18 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 0–22 | 0–24 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 14 | 0–17 | 0–17 | 0–18 | 0–19 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 98 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 99 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 100 | 3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 101 | 2% | 95% | |
| 102 | 2% | 93% | |
| 103 | 6% | 91% | |
| 104 | 4% | 85% | |
| 105 | 8% | 81% | |
| 106 | 6% | 73% | |
| 107 | 7% | 67% | |
| 108 | 10% | 60% | |
| 109 | 7% | 50% | Median |
| 110 | 7% | 43% | |
| 111 | 7% | 36% | |
| 112 | 8% | 29% | |
| 113 | 6% | 21% | |
| 114 | 4% | 16% | |
| 115 | 3% | 11% | |
| 116 | 3% | 9% | |
| 117 | 2% | 6% | |
| 118 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 119 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 58 | 3% | 98% | |
| 59 | 3% | 95% | |
| 60 | 4% | 93% | |
| 61 | 5% | 89% | |
| 62 | 8% | 84% | |
| 63 | 8% | 76% | |
| 64 | 11% | 68% | |
| 65 | 10% | 57% | Median |
| 66 | 8% | 47% | |
| 67 | 8% | 39% | |
| 68 | 5% | 31% | |
| 69 | 7% | 26% | |
| 70 | 9% | 18% | Last Result |
| 71 | 4% | 9% | |
| 72 | 3% | 6% | |
| 73 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 57 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 3% | 97% | |
| 60 | 4% | 94% | |
| 61 | 6% | 91% | |
| 62 | 9% | 84% | Last Result |
| 63 | 7% | 76% | |
| 64 | 13% | 68% | |
| 65 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 66 | 9% | 47% | |
| 67 | 7% | 39% | |
| 68 | 14% | 32% | |
| 69 | 5% | 18% | |
| 70 | 4% | 12% | |
| 71 | 2% | 8% | |
| 72 | 3% | 6% | |
| 73 | 2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 25 | 5% | 97% | |
| 26 | 6% | 92% | |
| 27 | 11% | 86% | |
| 28 | 16% | 76% | |
| 29 | 18% | 60% | Median |
| 30 | 15% | 41% | |
| 31 | 8% | 27% | Last Result |
| 32 | 9% | 19% | |
| 33 | 5% | 9% | |
| 34 | 2% | 4% | |
| 35 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 25 | 4% | 97% | |
| 26 | 8% | 93% | |
| 27 | 12% | 85% | |
| 28 | 23% | 72% | Last Result, Median |
| 29 | 12% | 49% | |
| 30 | 13% | 37% | |
| 31 | 10% | 24% | |
| 32 | 8% | 15% | |
| 33 | 3% | 7% | |
| 34 | 2% | 4% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 4% | 98% | |
| 22 | 6% | 94% | Last Result |
| 23 | 7% | 88% | |
| 24 | 18% | 81% | |
| 25 | 18% | 63% | Median |
| 26 | 17% | 45% | |
| 27 | 7% | 28% | |
| 28 | 7% | 21% | |
| 29 | 8% | 14% | |
| 30 | 4% | 6% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 0% | 97% | |
| 3 | 0% | 97% | |
| 4 | 0% | 97% | |
| 5 | 0% | 97% | |
| 6 | 0% | 97% | |
| 7 | 0% | 97% | |
| 8 | 0% | 97% | |
| 9 | 0% | 97% | |
| 10 | 0% | 97% | |
| 11 | 0% | 97% | |
| 12 | 0% | 97% | |
| 13 | 0% | 97% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 15 | 7% | 97% | |
| 16 | 10% | 90% | |
| 17 | 21% | 81% | |
| 18 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 19 | 16% | 44% | |
| 20 | 17% | 28% | Last Result |
| 21 | 5% | 10% | |
| 22 | 3% | 5% | |
| 23 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 47% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 53% | |
| 2 | 0% | 53% | |
| 3 | 0% | 53% | |
| 4 | 0% | 53% | |
| 5 | 0% | 53% | |
| 6 | 0% | 53% | |
| 7 | 0% | 53% | |
| 8 | 0% | 53% | |
| 9 | 0% | 53% | |
| 10 | 0% | 53% | |
| 11 | 0% | 53% | |
| 12 | 0% | 53% | |
| 13 | 0% | 53% | |
| 14 | 5% | 53% | Median |
| 15 | 20% | 48% | |
| 16 | 18% | 28% | Last Result |
| 17 | 6% | 10% | |
| 18 | 3% | 5% | |
| 19 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 202 | 100% | 194–212 | 193–214 | 191–216 | 188–221 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 195 | 193 | 99.9% | 185–201 | 183–203 | 181–204 | 177–207 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 174 | 45% | 166–182 | 164–184 | 163–186 | 160–190 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 167 | 164 | 5% | 156–172 | 153–174 | 152–176 | 147–179 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 156 | 0.1% | 148–164 | 146–166 | 145–168 | 142–172 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 146 | 0% | 137–154 | 135–156 | 134–158 | 131–162 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 137 | 0% | 131–144 | 129–146 | 128–148 | 125–153 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 138 | 0% | 130–145 | 129–147 | 127–148 | 120–151 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 131 | 0% | 124–138 | 122–140 | 120–142 | 117–144 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 120 | 0% | 113–127 | 111–128 | 110–130 | 108–133 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 118 | 0% | 108–125 | 106–128 | 105–129 | 102–132 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 112 | 0% | 106–120 | 104–121 | 102–122 | 96–125 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 94 | 0% | 88–101 | 87–102 | 85–103 | 83–106 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 185 | 0% | 100% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 189 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 190 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 191 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 192 | 2% | 97% | |
| 193 | 3% | 95% | |
| 194 | 2% | 92% | |
| 195 | 4% | 90% | |
| 196 | 3% | 86% | |
| 197 | 6% | 82% | |
| 198 | 4% | 77% | |
| 199 | 6% | 73% | |
| 200 | 5% | 68% | |
| 201 | 5% | 63% | Last Result |
| 202 | 9% | 58% | |
| 203 | 3% | 49% | Median |
| 204 | 3% | 46% | |
| 205 | 5% | 43% | |
| 206 | 4% | 38% | |
| 207 | 6% | 34% | |
| 208 | 3% | 28% | |
| 209 | 4% | 25% | |
| 210 | 4% | 21% | |
| 211 | 4% | 17% | |
| 212 | 4% | 13% | |
| 213 | 3% | 9% | |
| 214 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 215 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 216 | 2% | 4% | |
| 217 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 218 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 219 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 221 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 222 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 226 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 174 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 175 | 0% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 180 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 181 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 182 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 183 | 3% | 96% | |
| 184 | 2% | 93% | |
| 185 | 4% | 91% | |
| 186 | 2% | 87% | |
| 187 | 6% | 85% | |
| 188 | 4% | 79% | |
| 189 | 4% | 75% | |
| 190 | 4% | 70% | |
| 191 | 8% | 66% | |
| 192 | 6% | 58% | |
| 193 | 5% | 52% | |
| 194 | 6% | 47% | |
| 195 | 5% | 41% | Last Result |
| 196 | 6% | 36% | |
| 197 | 6% | 30% | |
| 198 | 7% | 24% | Median |
| 199 | 2% | 17% | |
| 200 | 4% | 15% | |
| 201 | 4% | 11% | |
| 202 | 2% | 7% | |
| 203 | 2% | 6% | |
| 204 | 2% | 4% | |
| 205 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 206 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 207 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 163 | 2% | 98% | |
| 164 | 2% | 97% | |
| 165 | 3% | 95% | |
| 166 | 3% | 92% | |
| 167 | 4% | 89% | |
| 168 | 7% | 85% | |
| 169 | 4% | 78% | |
| 170 | 5% | 74% | Last Result |
| 171 | 3% | 69% | |
| 172 | 8% | 66% | |
| 173 | 8% | 58% | |
| 174 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 175 | 4% | 45% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 42% | |
| 177 | 7% | 38% | |
| 178 | 6% | 31% | |
| 179 | 3% | 24% | |
| 180 | 3% | 21% | |
| 181 | 5% | 19% | |
| 182 | 5% | 13% | |
| 183 | 2% | 8% | |
| 184 | 2% | 6% | |
| 185 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 186 | 2% | 4% | |
| 187 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 188 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 189 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 151 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 152 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 153 | 3% | 97% | |
| 154 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 155 | 2% | 93% | |
| 156 | 3% | 91% | |
| 157 | 6% | 88% | |
| 158 | 4% | 82% | |
| 159 | 4% | 79% | |
| 160 | 3% | 75% | |
| 161 | 9% | 72% | |
| 162 | 3% | 63% | |
| 163 | 6% | 60% | |
| 164 | 7% | 54% | |
| 165 | 5% | 48% | |
| 166 | 4% | 43% | |
| 167 | 7% | 39% | Last Result |
| 168 | 5% | 32% | |
| 169 | 6% | 27% | |
| 170 | 6% | 21% | Median |
| 171 | 4% | 15% | |
| 172 | 2% | 11% | |
| 173 | 2% | 9% | |
| 174 | 2% | 7% | |
| 175 | 2% | 5% | Majority |
| 176 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 177 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 178 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 179 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 139 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 142 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 143 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 144 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 145 | 2% | 98% | |
| 146 | 2% | 96% | |
| 147 | 2% | 94% | |
| 148 | 4% | 93% | |
| 149 | 4% | 89% | |
| 150 | 2% | 85% | |
| 151 | 7% | 83% | |
| 152 | 6% | 76% | |
| 153 | 6% | 70% | |
| 154 | 5% | 64% | Last Result |
| 155 | 6% | 59% | Median |
| 156 | 5% | 53% | |
| 157 | 6% | 48% | |
| 158 | 8% | 42% | |
| 159 | 4% | 34% | |
| 160 | 4% | 30% | |
| 161 | 4% | 25% | |
| 162 | 6% | 21% | |
| 163 | 2% | 15% | |
| 164 | 4% | 13% | |
| 165 | 2% | 9% | |
| 166 | 3% | 7% | |
| 167 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 168 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 169 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 176 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 132 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 133 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 134 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 135 | 2% | 97% | |
| 136 | 4% | 95% | |
| 137 | 3% | 91% | |
| 138 | 3% | 88% | |
| 139 | 4% | 85% | |
| 140 | 4% | 81% | |
| 141 | 6% | 76% | |
| 142 | 5% | 71% | |
| 143 | 4% | 65% | |
| 144 | 3% | 61% | Last Result |
| 145 | 3% | 57% | |
| 146 | 7% | 54% | |
| 147 | 4% | 47% | |
| 148 | 5% | 44% | |
| 149 | 4% | 39% | |
| 150 | 6% | 35% | |
| 151 | 7% | 30% | Median |
| 152 | 5% | 23% | |
| 153 | 5% | 18% | |
| 154 | 3% | 13% | |
| 155 | 2% | 9% | |
| 156 | 2% | 7% | |
| 157 | 2% | 5% | |
| 158 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 159 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 127 | 1.2% | 98.8% | |
| 128 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 129 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 130 | 2% | 95% | |
| 131 | 5% | 93% | |
| 132 | 5% | 88% | |
| 133 | 4% | 83% | |
| 134 | 6% | 79% | |
| 135 | 5% | 73% | |
| 136 | 12% | 68% | |
| 137 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 138 | 6% | 47% | |
| 139 | 7% | 41% | |
| 140 | 6% | 35% | |
| 141 | 7% | 29% | |
| 142 | 6% | 21% | |
| 143 | 4% | 15% | |
| 144 | 2% | 11% | |
| 145 | 2% | 9% | |
| 146 | 3% | 7% | |
| 147 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 148 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 149 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 150 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 121 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 126 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 127 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 128 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 129 | 2% | 95% | |
| 130 | 4% | 93% | |
| 131 | 3% | 89% | |
| 132 | 6% | 86% | |
| 133 | 3% | 80% | |
| 134 | 5% | 77% | |
| 135 | 6% | 72% | |
| 136 | 5% | 66% | |
| 137 | 10% | 61% | Median |
| 138 | 9% | 51% | |
| 139 | 5% | 42% | |
| 140 | 4% | 37% | |
| 141 | 6% | 32% | |
| 142 | 3% | 26% | |
| 143 | 5% | 24% | Last Result |
| 144 | 6% | 19% | |
| 145 | 3% | 13% | |
| 146 | 4% | 9% | |
| 147 | 2% | 6% | |
| 148 | 2% | 4% | |
| 149 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 150 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 120 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 121 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 122 | 2% | 96% | |
| 123 | 3% | 94% | |
| 124 | 5% | 91% | |
| 125 | 5% | 86% | |
| 126 | 5% | 81% | |
| 127 | 5% | 76% | |
| 128 | 7% | 71% | |
| 129 | 7% | 64% | |
| 130 | 5% | 57% | Median |
| 131 | 10% | 52% | |
| 132 | 6% | 42% | Last Result |
| 133 | 5% | 36% | |
| 134 | 6% | 31% | |
| 135 | 3% | 24% | |
| 136 | 3% | 21% | |
| 137 | 5% | 18% | |
| 138 | 5% | 13% | |
| 139 | 2% | 8% | |
| 140 | 3% | 6% | |
| 141 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 142 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 144 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 108 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 109 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 110 | 2% | 98% | |
| 111 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 112 | 4% | 95% | |
| 113 | 3% | 91% | |
| 114 | 4% | 87% | |
| 115 | 5% | 84% | |
| 116 | 4% | 79% | |
| 117 | 9% | 75% | |
| 118 | 7% | 66% | |
| 119 | 4% | 59% | Median |
| 120 | 11% | 55% | |
| 121 | 4% | 44% | |
| 122 | 6% | 39% | |
| 123 | 5% | 33% | Last Result |
| 124 | 7% | 28% | |
| 125 | 4% | 20% | |
| 126 | 5% | 16% | |
| 127 | 4% | 11% | |
| 128 | 2% | 7% | |
| 129 | 2% | 5% | |
| 130 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 131 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 132 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 103 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 104 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 105 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 106 | 2% | 97% | |
| 107 | 3% | 95% | |
| 108 | 4% | 91% | |
| 109 | 3% | 87% | |
| 110 | 3% | 85% | |
| 111 | 5% | 81% | |
| 112 | 6% | 77% | |
| 113 | 5% | 70% | |
| 114 | 4% | 65% | |
| 115 | 3% | 61% | |
| 116 | 5% | 58% | Last Result |
| 117 | 3% | 53% | |
| 118 | 6% | 50% | |
| 119 | 4% | 44% | |
| 120 | 5% | 41% | |
| 121 | 6% | 36% | |
| 122 | 4% | 30% | |
| 123 | 7% | 26% | Median |
| 124 | 4% | 19% | |
| 125 | 5% | 15% | |
| 126 | 2% | 10% | |
| 127 | 2% | 8% | |
| 128 | 2% | 6% | |
| 129 | 2% | 4% | |
| 130 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 94 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 98 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 98.5% | |
| 101 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 102 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 103 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 104 | 3% | 95% | |
| 105 | 2% | 93% | |
| 106 | 4% | 91% | |
| 107 | 7% | 87% | |
| 108 | 4% | 80% | |
| 109 | 5% | 76% | |
| 110 | 6% | 71% | |
| 111 | 11% | 65% | |
| 112 | 5% | 54% | Median |
| 113 | 9% | 50% | |
| 114 | 4% | 41% | |
| 115 | 7% | 37% | |
| 116 | 6% | 29% | |
| 117 | 6% | 24% | |
| 118 | 4% | 17% | |
| 119 | 3% | 14% | |
| 120 | 6% | 11% | |
| 121 | 1.4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 122 | 2% | 4% | |
| 123 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 85 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 86 | 2% | 97% | |
| 87 | 3% | 95% | |
| 88 | 3% | 92% | |
| 89 | 4% | 89% | |
| 90 | 7% | 86% | |
| 91 | 6% | 79% | |
| 92 | 8% | 73% | |
| 93 | 6% | 65% | |
| 94 | 9% | 59% | Median |
| 95 | 8% | 50% | |
| 96 | 9% | 42% | |
| 97 | 6% | 33% | |
| 98 | 4% | 27% | |
| 99 | 6% | 23% | |
| 100 | 5% | 17% | |
| 101 | 3% | 12% | Last Result |
| 102 | 4% | 9% | |
| 103 | 2% | 4% | |
| 104 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Dagens Nyheter
- Fieldwork period: 10–20 January 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1589
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.94%