Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 14 January–3 February 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 29.0% | 28.0–30.1% | 27.7–30.4% | 27.4–30.7% | 26.9–31.2% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 21.2% | 20.3–22.2% | 20.0–22.5% | 19.8–22.7% | 19.4–23.2% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 18.3% | 17.4–19.2% | 17.2–19.5% | 16.9–19.7% | 16.5–20.2% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.5–9.8% | 8.3–10.0% | 8.1–10.2% | 7.8–10.5% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.9–8.1% | 6.7–8.3% | 6.6–8.5% | 6.3–8.8% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.8–8.0% | 6.6–8.2% | 6.5–8.4% | 6.2–8.7% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.0–3.9% | 2.9–4.0% | 2.8–4.1% | 2.7–4.4% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.2–3.3% | 2.0–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 109 | 105–113 | 104–114 | 103–115 | 100–117 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 80 | 76–83 | 75–84 | 74–85 | 72–87 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 69 | 65–72 | 64–74 | 63–74 | 62–76 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 34 | 32–37 | 31–38 | 30–38 | 29–40 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 28 | 26–31 | 25–31 | 25–32 | 24–33 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 28 | 25–30 | 25–31 | 25–32 | 24–33 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–16 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 102 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 103 | 2% | 98% | |
| 104 | 5% | 96% | |
| 105 | 6% | 91% | |
| 106 | 7% | 86% | |
| 107 | 8% | 79% | |
| 108 | 13% | 71% | |
| 109 | 16% | 58% | Median |
| 110 | 9% | 42% | |
| 111 | 10% | 33% | |
| 112 | 10% | 23% | |
| 113 | 6% | 13% | |
| 114 | 3% | 8% | |
| 115 | 2% | 4% | |
| 116 | 2% | 2% | |
| 117 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 74 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 75 | 4% | 96% | |
| 76 | 5% | 93% | |
| 77 | 9% | 88% | |
| 78 | 13% | 79% | |
| 79 | 13% | 66% | |
| 80 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 81 | 14% | 39% | |
| 82 | 10% | 25% | |
| 83 | 6% | 15% | |
| 84 | 4% | 9% | |
| 85 | 2% | 5% | |
| 86 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 64 | 3% | 97% | |
| 65 | 4% | 94% | |
| 66 | 7% | 90% | |
| 67 | 15% | 83% | |
| 68 | 17% | 68% | |
| 69 | 14% | 51% | Median |
| 70 | 10% | 37% | Last Result |
| 71 | 11% | 27% | |
| 72 | 6% | 16% | |
| 73 | 4% | 9% | |
| 74 | 4% | 5% | |
| 75 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 31 | 5% | 97% | |
| 32 | 8% | 92% | |
| 33 | 15% | 84% | |
| 34 | 19% | 69% | Median |
| 35 | 20% | 50% | |
| 36 | 16% | 29% | |
| 37 | 8% | 13% | |
| 38 | 4% | 6% | |
| 39 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 6% | 98% | |
| 26 | 10% | 92% | |
| 27 | 12% | 82% | |
| 28 | 21% | 70% | Median |
| 29 | 20% | 50% | |
| 30 | 20% | 30% | |
| 31 | 6% | 10% | Last Result |
| 32 | 3% | 4% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 25 | 8% | 98% | |
| 26 | 5% | 90% | |
| 27 | 27% | 85% | |
| 28 | 22% | 58% | Median |
| 29 | 8% | 35% | |
| 30 | 23% | 28% | |
| 31 | 2% | 5% | |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 15 | 3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.9% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 207 | 100% | 201–211 | 200–212 | 197–213 | 193–215 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 178 | 84% | 173–182 | 172–184 | 170–185 | 167–187 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 177 | 76% | 172–181 | 170–182 | 168–183 | 165–186 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 172 | 24% | 168–177 | 167–179 | 166–181 | 163–184 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 148 | 0% | 144–153 | 143–154 | 141–155 | 138–158 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 144 | 0% | 140–149 | 138–151 | 138–153 | 135–157 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 144 | 0% | 139–148 | 138–149 | 136–150 | 133–152 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 138 | 0% | 133–143 | 132–144 | 132–147 | 129–151 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 125 | 0% | 121–130 | 120–131 | 118–132 | 115–133 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 125 | 0% | 121–130 | 120–131 | 118–132 | 115–133 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 109 | 0% | 105–114 | 104–116 | 103–119 | 101–124 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 97 | 0% | 93–101 | 92–102 | 91–103 | 88–105 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 97 | 0% | 93–101 | 92–102 | 91–103 | 88–105 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 194 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 195 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 197 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 198 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 199 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 200 | 2% | 95% | |
| 201 | 3% | 93% | Last Result |
| 202 | 5% | 90% | |
| 203 | 7% | 85% | |
| 204 | 8% | 78% | |
| 205 | 8% | 69% | |
| 206 | 9% | 61% | Median |
| 207 | 14% | 52% | |
| 208 | 11% | 39% | |
| 209 | 9% | 27% | |
| 210 | 7% | 18% | |
| 211 | 4% | 12% | |
| 212 | 4% | 7% | |
| 213 | 2% | 4% | |
| 214 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 215 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 168 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 169 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 170 | 1.0% | 98% | Last Result |
| 171 | 2% | 97% | |
| 172 | 2% | 95% | |
| 173 | 5% | 93% | |
| 174 | 5% | 88% | |
| 175 | 8% | 84% | Majority |
| 176 | 10% | 76% | |
| 177 | 11% | 66% | |
| 178 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 179 | 12% | 43% | |
| 180 | 9% | 31% | |
| 181 | 6% | 23% | |
| 182 | 6% | 16% | |
| 183 | 4% | 10% | |
| 184 | 3% | 6% | |
| 185 | 2% | 3% | |
| 186 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 166 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 167 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 168 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 169 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 170 | 2% | 96% | |
| 171 | 2% | 94% | |
| 172 | 7% | 93% | |
| 173 | 4% | 86% | |
| 174 | 6% | 82% | |
| 175 | 14% | 76% | Majority |
| 176 | 10% | 62% | |
| 177 | 12% | 52% | Median |
| 178 | 14% | 40% | |
| 179 | 7% | 26% | |
| 180 | 6% | 19% | |
| 181 | 6% | 14% | |
| 182 | 3% | 8% | |
| 183 | 3% | 5% | |
| 184 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 185 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 164 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 165 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 166 | 3% | 98% | |
| 167 | 3% | 95% | |
| 168 | 6% | 92% | |
| 169 | 6% | 86% | |
| 170 | 7% | 81% | |
| 171 | 14% | 74% | Median |
| 172 | 12% | 60% | |
| 173 | 10% | 48% | |
| 174 | 14% | 38% | |
| 175 | 6% | 24% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 18% | |
| 177 | 7% | 14% | |
| 178 | 2% | 7% | |
| 179 | 2% | 6% | |
| 180 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 181 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 182 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 183 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 139 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 140 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 141 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 142 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 143 | 2% | 96% | |
| 144 | 3% | 93% | |
| 145 | 8% | 90% | |
| 146 | 9% | 82% | |
| 147 | 6% | 73% | |
| 148 | 20% | 67% | |
| 149 | 12% | 47% | Median |
| 150 | 10% | 35% | |
| 151 | 6% | 26% | |
| 152 | 8% | 19% | |
| 153 | 4% | 11% | |
| 154 | 2% | 7% | |
| 155 | 3% | 5% | |
| 156 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 157 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 135 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 136 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 137 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 138 | 3% | 98% | |
| 139 | 4% | 95% | |
| 140 | 5% | 90% | |
| 141 | 9% | 86% | |
| 142 | 11% | 77% | |
| 143 | 10% | 66% | Median |
| 144 | 15% | 57% | Last Result |
| 145 | 10% | 42% | |
| 146 | 10% | 33% | |
| 147 | 8% | 22% | |
| 148 | 5% | 15% | |
| 149 | 3% | 10% | |
| 150 | 2% | 7% | |
| 151 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 152 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 153 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 154 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 135 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 136 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 137 | 2% | 97% | |
| 138 | 3% | 95% | |
| 139 | 5% | 92% | |
| 140 | 5% | 87% | |
| 141 | 9% | 82% | |
| 142 | 11% | 73% | |
| 143 | 10% | 62% | Median |
| 144 | 15% | 52% | |
| 145 | 10% | 38% | |
| 146 | 10% | 28% | |
| 147 | 7% | 18% | |
| 148 | 4% | 11% | |
| 149 | 2% | 6% | |
| 150 | 2% | 4% | |
| 151 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 152 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 153 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 130 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 131 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 132 | 4% | 98% | |
| 133 | 5% | 93% | |
| 134 | 4% | 88% | |
| 135 | 7% | 83% | |
| 136 | 11% | 77% | |
| 137 | 8% | 65% | Median |
| 138 | 10% | 57% | |
| 139 | 13% | 47% | |
| 140 | 10% | 33% | |
| 141 | 7% | 23% | |
| 142 | 5% | 15% | |
| 143 | 4% | 10% | |
| 144 | 2% | 7% | |
| 145 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 146 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 147 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 148 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 113 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 116 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 117 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 118 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 119 | 2% | 97% | |
| 120 | 3% | 96% | |
| 121 | 6% | 93% | |
| 122 | 8% | 86% | |
| 123 | 10% | 79% | |
| 124 | 11% | 69% | |
| 125 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 126 | 11% | 46% | |
| 127 | 11% | 35% | |
| 128 | 6% | 25% | |
| 129 | 8% | 18% | |
| 130 | 5% | 10% | |
| 131 | 3% | 5% | |
| 132 | 2% | 3% | |
| 133 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 113 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 116 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 117 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 118 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 119 | 2% | 97% | |
| 120 | 3% | 96% | |
| 121 | 6% | 93% | |
| 122 | 8% | 86% | |
| 123 | 10% | 79% | Last Result |
| 124 | 11% | 69% | |
| 125 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 126 | 11% | 46% | |
| 127 | 11% | 35% | |
| 128 | 6% | 25% | |
| 129 | 8% | 18% | |
| 130 | 5% | 10% | |
| 131 | 3% | 5% | |
| 132 | 2% | 3% | |
| 133 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 103 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 104 | 4% | 97% | |
| 105 | 5% | 94% | |
| 106 | 6% | 89% | |
| 107 | 7% | 82% | |
| 108 | 13% | 75% | |
| 109 | 15% | 62% | Median |
| 110 | 9% | 47% | |
| 111 | 10% | 38% | |
| 112 | 10% | 28% | |
| 113 | 6% | 18% | |
| 114 | 3% | 12% | |
| 115 | 2% | 9% | |
| 116 | 2% | 7% | Last Result |
| 117 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 118 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 120 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 124 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 90 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 91 | 2% | 98% | |
| 92 | 3% | 96% | |
| 93 | 6% | 93% | |
| 94 | 8% | 88% | |
| 95 | 10% | 80% | |
| 96 | 11% | 71% | |
| 97 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 98 | 12% | 46% | |
| 99 | 11% | 34% | |
| 100 | 8% | 24% | |
| 101 | 7% | 15% | |
| 102 | 4% | 8% | |
| 103 | 2% | 4% | |
| 104 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 90 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 91 | 2% | 98% | |
| 92 | 3% | 96% | |
| 93 | 6% | 93% | |
| 94 | 8% | 88% | |
| 95 | 10% | 80% | |
| 96 | 11% | 71% | |
| 97 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 98 | 12% | 46% | |
| 99 | 11% | 34% | |
| 100 | 8% | 24% | |
| 101 | 7% | 15% | Last Result |
| 102 | 4% | 8% | |
| 103 | 2% | 4% | |
| 104 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 14 January–3 February 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 3045
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.56%