Opinion Poll by Inizio for Aftonbladet, 11–18 February 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 27.0% | 25.8–28.3% | 25.5–28.7% | 25.2–29.0% | 24.6–29.6% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.5% | 18.4–20.6% | 18.1–20.9% | 17.8–21.2% | 17.3–21.8% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 17.6% | 16.6–18.7% | 16.3–19.1% | 16.1–19.3% | 15.6–19.9% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.9–10.6% | 8.7–10.8% | 8.5–11.0% | 8.1–11.4% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.4–10.0% | 8.2–10.3% | 8.0–10.5% | 7.7–10.9% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 9.0% | 8.2–9.8% | 8.0–10.1% | 7.8–10.3% | 7.5–10.7% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.0–4.0% | 2.8–4.1% | 2.7–4.3% | 2.5–4.6% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.2–3.4% | 2.1–3.5% | 1.9–3.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 104 | 98–108 | 97–109 | 95–110 | 92–112 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 73 | 69–77 | 68–79 | 67–80 | 64–82 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 66 | 62–70 | 61–71 | 60–72 | 58–74 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 36 | 33–39 | 33–40 | 32–41 | 30–42 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 35 | 32–38 | 31–40 | 31–40 | 29–42 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 33 | 31–36 | 30–37 | 29–38 | 28–40 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–15 | 0–16 | 0–17 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 94 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 95 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 96 | 2% | 97% | |
| 97 | 3% | 95% | |
| 98 | 4% | 92% | |
| 99 | 6% | 88% | |
| 100 | 6% | 83% | Last Result |
| 101 | 4% | 77% | |
| 102 | 14% | 73% | |
| 103 | 9% | 59% | |
| 104 | 10% | 50% | Median |
| 105 | 12% | 41% | |
| 106 | 9% | 29% | |
| 107 | 7% | 20% | |
| 108 | 5% | 13% | |
| 109 | 4% | 8% | |
| 110 | 2% | 4% | |
| 111 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 2% | 97% | |
| 69 | 6% | 94% | |
| 70 | 8% | 89% | |
| 71 | 5% | 81% | |
| 72 | 14% | 76% | |
| 73 | 14% | 62% | Median |
| 74 | 15% | 48% | |
| 75 | 7% | 32% | |
| 76 | 8% | 25% | |
| 77 | 7% | 17% | |
| 78 | 4% | 10% | |
| 79 | 3% | 6% | |
| 80 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 81 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 4% | 96% | |
| 62 | 6% | 92% | |
| 63 | 6% | 86% | |
| 64 | 9% | 80% | |
| 65 | 10% | 70% | |
| 66 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 67 | 9% | 46% | |
| 68 | 13% | 37% | |
| 69 | 12% | 24% | |
| 70 | 6% | 12% | Last Result |
| 71 | 3% | 7% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | |
| 73 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.4% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 32 | 3% | 98% | |
| 33 | 7% | 95% | |
| 34 | 13% | 88% | |
| 35 | 16% | 75% | |
| 36 | 21% | 59% | Median |
| 37 | 12% | 38% | |
| 38 | 14% | 26% | |
| 39 | 5% | 12% | |
| 40 | 3% | 7% | |
| 41 | 2% | 4% | |
| 42 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 31 | 4% | 98% | |
| 32 | 7% | 94% | |
| 33 | 11% | 87% | |
| 34 | 15% | 75% | |
| 35 | 18% | 61% | Median |
| 36 | 16% | 43% | |
| 37 | 11% | 27% | |
| 38 | 7% | 16% | |
| 39 | 4% | 9% | |
| 40 | 3% | 5% | |
| 41 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 30 | 5% | 97% | |
| 31 | 10% | 91% | |
| 32 | 18% | 81% | |
| 33 | 17% | 63% | Median |
| 34 | 15% | 46% | |
| 35 | 11% | 31% | |
| 36 | 10% | 19% | |
| 37 | 6% | 10% | |
| 38 | 2% | 4% | |
| 39 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 10% | |
| 2 | 0% | 10% | |
| 3 | 0% | 10% | |
| 4 | 0% | 10% | |
| 5 | 0% | 10% | |
| 6 | 0% | 10% | |
| 7 | 0% | 10% | |
| 8 | 0% | 10% | |
| 9 | 0% | 10% | |
| 10 | 0% | 10% | |
| 11 | 0% | 10% | |
| 12 | 0% | 10% | |
| 13 | 0% | 10% | |
| 14 | 0% | 10% | |
| 15 | 7% | 10% | |
| 16 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 207 | 100% | 199–211 | 195–212 | 194–213 | 191–216 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 175 | 65% | 171–182 | 170–184 | 168–185 | 165–187 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 174 | 35% | 167–178 | 165–179 | 164–181 | 162–184 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 170 | 12% | 163–175 | 160–176 | 158–177 | 155–180 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 140 | 0% | 135–147 | 134–150 | 133–151 | 130–155 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 140 | 0% | 136–145 | 134–147 | 130–149 | 127–151 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 141 | 0% | 133–143 | 132–146 | 132–147 | 128–149 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna | 143 | 135 | 0% | 131–139 | 130–141 | 129–146 | 127–149 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 123 | 135 | 0% | 131–139 | 130–141 | 129–146 | 127–149 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 139 | 0% | 132–143 | 130–144 | 129–145 | 126–146 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 105 | 0% | 99–111 | 98–113 | 97–115 | 94–118 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 102 | 0% | 98–106 | 96–108 | 96–110 | 93–113 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 102 | 0% | 98–106 | 96–108 | 96–110 | 93–113 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 187 | 0% | 100% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 191 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 192 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 193 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 194 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 195 | 2% | 97% | |
| 196 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 197 | 1.5% | 93% | |
| 198 | 2% | 92% | |
| 199 | 2% | 90% | |
| 200 | 4% | 88% | |
| 201 | 3% | 84% | Last Result |
| 202 | 5% | 81% | |
| 203 | 4% | 76% | |
| 204 | 7% | 72% | |
| 205 | 9% | 65% | |
| 206 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 207 | 11% | 50% | |
| 208 | 15% | 39% | |
| 209 | 6% | 24% | |
| 210 | 5% | 18% | |
| 211 | 7% | 13% | |
| 212 | 3% | 6% | |
| 213 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 214 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 215 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 216 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 217 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 218 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 166 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 167 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 168 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 169 | 2% | 97% | |
| 170 | 3% | 96% | |
| 171 | 2% | 92% | |
| 172 | 7% | 90% | |
| 173 | 8% | 83% | |
| 174 | 9% | 74% | |
| 175 | 17% | 65% | Median, Majority |
| 176 | 7% | 48% | |
| 177 | 9% | 42% | |
| 178 | 7% | 33% | |
| 179 | 7% | 26% | |
| 180 | 5% | 19% | |
| 181 | 3% | 14% | |
| 182 | 2% | 10% | |
| 183 | 2% | 8% | |
| 184 | 2% | 6% | |
| 185 | 2% | 4% | |
| 186 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 162 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 163 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 164 | 2% | 98% | |
| 165 | 2% | 96% | |
| 166 | 2% | 94% | |
| 167 | 2% | 92% | |
| 168 | 3% | 90% | |
| 169 | 5% | 86% | |
| 170 | 7% | 81% | |
| 171 | 7% | 74% | |
| 172 | 9% | 67% | Median |
| 173 | 7% | 58% | |
| 174 | 17% | 52% | |
| 175 | 9% | 35% | Majority |
| 176 | 8% | 26% | |
| 177 | 7% | 17% | |
| 178 | 2% | 10% | |
| 179 | 3% | 8% | |
| 180 | 2% | 4% | |
| 181 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 182 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 183 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 184 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 156 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 157 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 158 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 159 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 160 | 2% | 96% | |
| 161 | 2% | 95% | |
| 162 | 3% | 93% | |
| 163 | 4% | 90% | |
| 164 | 3% | 87% | |
| 165 | 5% | 84% | |
| 166 | 4% | 79% | |
| 167 | 4% | 75% | |
| 168 | 6% | 71% | |
| 169 | 6% | 65% | |
| 170 | 11% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 171 | 12% | 48% | |
| 172 | 8% | 35% | |
| 173 | 7% | 28% | |
| 174 | 8% | 20% | |
| 175 | 5% | 12% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 7% | |
| 177 | 2% | 3% | |
| 178 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 179 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 131 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 132 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 133 | 2% | 98% | |
| 134 | 3% | 96% | |
| 135 | 5% | 93% | |
| 136 | 4% | 89% | |
| 137 | 5% | 85% | |
| 138 | 9% | 80% | |
| 139 | 12% | 71% | |
| 140 | 11% | 60% | Median |
| 141 | 7% | 49% | |
| 142 | 11% | 42% | |
| 143 | 6% | 31% | |
| 144 | 6% | 24% | |
| 145 | 6% | 19% | |
| 146 | 2% | 13% | |
| 147 | 2% | 11% | |
| 148 | 2% | 9% | |
| 149 | 1.5% | 7% | |
| 150 | 2% | 5% | |
| 151 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 153 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 154 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 129 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 130 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 131 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 132 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 133 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 134 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 135 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 136 | 4% | 93% | |
| 137 | 12% | 89% | |
| 138 | 12% | 77% | |
| 139 | 12% | 64% | Median |
| 140 | 11% | 52% | |
| 141 | 9% | 41% | |
| 142 | 9% | 33% | |
| 143 | 6% | 23% | |
| 144 | 5% | 17% | Last Result |
| 145 | 3% | 12% | |
| 146 | 2% | 9% | |
| 147 | 2% | 7% | |
| 148 | 2% | 5% | |
| 149 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 150 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 131 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 132 | 4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 133 | 6% | 94% | |
| 134 | 1.1% | 88% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 136 | 3% | 86% | |
| 137 | 13% | 83% | |
| 138 | 19% | 70% | |
| 139 | 0.8% | 51% | Median |
| 140 | 0.2% | 50% | |
| 141 | 4% | 50% | |
| 142 | 23% | 46% | |
| 143 | 15% | 22% | |
| 144 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 146 | 2% | 6% | |
| 147 | 2% | 4% | |
| 148 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 129 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 130 | 4% | 97% | |
| 131 | 4% | 93% | |
| 132 | 7% | 89% | |
| 133 | 8% | 82% | |
| 134 | 10% | 74% | |
| 135 | 14% | 64% | Median |
| 136 | 11% | 50% | |
| 137 | 14% | 39% | |
| 138 | 11% | 25% | |
| 139 | 5% | 14% | |
| 140 | 3% | 9% | |
| 141 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 142 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 143 | 0.4% | 4% | Last Result |
| 144 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 145 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 146 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 147 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 129 | 2% | 98% | |
| 130 | 4% | 96% | |
| 131 | 4% | 93% | |
| 132 | 7% | 89% | |
| 133 | 8% | 82% | |
| 134 | 10% | 74% | |
| 135 | 14% | 64% | Median |
| 136 | 11% | 50% | |
| 137 | 14% | 39% | |
| 138 | 11% | 25% | |
| 139 | 5% | 14% | |
| 140 | 3% | 8% | |
| 141 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 142 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 143 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 144 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 145 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 146 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 147 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 127 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 128 | 0.8% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 129 | 2% | 98% | |
| 130 | 2% | 96% | |
| 131 | 3% | 94% | |
| 132 | 2% | 91% | |
| 133 | 2% | 90% | |
| 134 | 2% | 87% | |
| 135 | 2% | 85% | |
| 136 | 4% | 84% | |
| 137 | 13% | 79% | |
| 138 | 12% | 67% | |
| 139 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 140 | 11% | 42% | |
| 141 | 9% | 31% | |
| 142 | 9% | 23% | |
| 143 | 6% | 13% | |
| 144 | 4% | 7% | |
| 145 | 2% | 3% | |
| 146 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 97 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 98 | 2% | 97% | |
| 99 | 5% | 94% | |
| 100 | 5% | 90% | |
| 101 | 3% | 85% | |
| 102 | 14% | 82% | |
| 103 | 8% | 68% | |
| 104 | 10% | 60% | Median |
| 105 | 12% | 50% | |
| 106 | 9% | 39% | |
| 107 | 7% | 30% | |
| 108 | 5% | 23% | |
| 109 | 4% | 18% | |
| 110 | 3% | 14% | |
| 111 | 2% | 10% | |
| 112 | 2% | 9% | |
| 113 | 2% | 7% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 115 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 117 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 118 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 95 | 1.2% | 98.8% | |
| 96 | 3% | 98% | |
| 97 | 3% | 95% | |
| 98 | 6% | 91% | |
| 99 | 6% | 85% | |
| 100 | 11% | 79% | |
| 101 | 13% | 68% | |
| 102 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 103 | 14% | 47% | |
| 104 | 7% | 33% | |
| 105 | 8% | 26% | |
| 106 | 8% | 17% | |
| 107 | 4% | 9% | |
| 108 | 2% | 5% | |
| 109 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 110 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 95 | 1.2% | 98.8% | |
| 96 | 3% | 98% | |
| 97 | 3% | 95% | |
| 98 | 6% | 91% | |
| 99 | 6% | 85% | |
| 100 | 11% | 79% | |
| 101 | 13% | 68% | Last Result |
| 102 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 103 | 14% | 46% | |
| 104 | 7% | 33% | |
| 105 | 8% | 26% | |
| 106 | 8% | 17% | |
| 107 | 4% | 9% | |
| 108 | 2% | 5% | |
| 109 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 110 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Inizio
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 11–18 February 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2137
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.94%