Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 7–20 February 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 28.0% | 26.5–29.5% | 26.1–29.9% | 25.8–30.3% | 25.1–31.1% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.0% | 17.8–20.4% | 17.4–20.8% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.5–21.7% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 17.0% | 15.8–18.3% | 15.5–18.7% | 15.2–19.0% | 14.6–19.6% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.0–11.0% | 8.8–11.3% | 8.6–11.6% | 8.1–12.1% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 9.0% | 8.1–10.0% | 7.8–10.3% | 7.6–10.5% | 7.2–11.0% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.1–8.9% | 6.9–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.3–10.0% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.5% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 102 | 94–109 | 93–112 | 91–113 | 89–116 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 69 | 63–75 | 62–76 | 61–78 | 59–81 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 62 | 57–67 | 56–69 | 55–70 | 53–73 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 36 | 32–40 | 32–41 | 31–43 | 29–45 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 33 | 29–37 | 28–38 | 28–39 | 26–41 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 29 | 26–33 | 25–34 | 24–35 | 23–37 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 14 | 0–16 | 0–18 | 0–18 | 0–20 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 15 | 0–17 | 0–18 | 0–18 | 0–20 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 90 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 91 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 92 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 93 | 2% | 95% | |
| 94 | 4% | 93% | |
| 95 | 2% | 90% | |
| 96 | 6% | 87% | |
| 97 | 3% | 82% | |
| 98 | 6% | 78% | |
| 99 | 7% | 73% | |
| 100 | 8% | 66% | Last Result |
| 101 | 7% | 58% | |
| 102 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 103 | 4% | 43% | |
| 104 | 5% | 39% | |
| 105 | 5% | 34% | |
| 106 | 4% | 29% | |
| 107 | 3% | 26% | |
| 108 | 9% | 22% | |
| 109 | 3% | 13% | |
| 110 | 3% | 10% | |
| 111 | 2% | 7% | |
| 112 | 2% | 5% | |
| 113 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 114 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 3% | 96% | Last Result |
| 63 | 4% | 94% | |
| 64 | 5% | 90% | |
| 65 | 5% | 84% | |
| 66 | 6% | 79% | |
| 67 | 8% | 73% | |
| 68 | 9% | 65% | |
| 69 | 7% | 56% | Median |
| 70 | 11% | 49% | |
| 71 | 7% | 38% | |
| 72 | 9% | 31% | |
| 73 | 5% | 22% | |
| 74 | 6% | 16% | |
| 75 | 4% | 10% | |
| 76 | 3% | 6% | |
| 77 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 78 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98% | |
| 56 | 2% | 96% | |
| 57 | 5% | 94% | |
| 58 | 6% | 89% | |
| 59 | 8% | 84% | |
| 60 | 12% | 76% | |
| 61 | 9% | 64% | |
| 62 | 13% | 55% | Median |
| 63 | 10% | 42% | |
| 64 | 7% | 31% | |
| 65 | 9% | 24% | |
| 66 | 4% | 15% | |
| 67 | 4% | 11% | |
| 68 | 2% | 8% | |
| 69 | 3% | 6% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 3% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 31 | 3% | 98% | |
| 32 | 5% | 95% | |
| 33 | 6% | 90% | |
| 34 | 12% | 84% | |
| 35 | 14% | 71% | |
| 36 | 9% | 58% | Median |
| 37 | 12% | 49% | |
| 38 | 8% | 37% | |
| 39 | 9% | 29% | |
| 40 | 10% | 20% | |
| 41 | 5% | 10% | |
| 42 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 43 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 44 | 2% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 28 | 4% | 98% | |
| 29 | 7% | 94% | |
| 30 | 11% | 87% | |
| 31 | 10% | 77% | |
| 32 | 13% | 66% | |
| 33 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 34 | 11% | 42% | |
| 35 | 10% | 32% | |
| 36 | 10% | 21% | |
| 37 | 6% | 12% | |
| 38 | 3% | 6% | |
| 39 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 25 | 6% | 97% | |
| 26 | 9% | 91% | |
| 27 | 11% | 82% | |
| 28 | 15% | 72% | |
| 29 | 11% | 57% | Median |
| 30 | 11% | 46% | |
| 31 | 8% | 35% | Last Result |
| 32 | 14% | 27% | |
| 33 | 5% | 13% | |
| 34 | 5% | 8% | |
| 35 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 45% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 55% | |
| 2 | 0% | 55% | |
| 3 | 0% | 55% | |
| 4 | 0% | 55% | |
| 5 | 0% | 55% | |
| 6 | 0% | 55% | |
| 7 | 0% | 55% | |
| 8 | 0% | 55% | |
| 9 | 0% | 55% | |
| 10 | 0% | 55% | |
| 11 | 0% | 55% | |
| 12 | 0% | 55% | |
| 13 | 0% | 55% | |
| 14 | 18% | 55% | Median |
| 15 | 6% | 37% | |
| 16 | 22% | 31% | |
| 17 | 2% | 9% | |
| 18 | 6% | 7% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 46% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 54% | |
| 2 | 0% | 54% | |
| 3 | 0% | 54% | |
| 4 | 0% | 54% | |
| 5 | 0% | 54% | |
| 6 | 0% | 54% | |
| 7 | 0% | 54% | |
| 8 | 0% | 54% | |
| 9 | 0% | 54% | |
| 10 | 0% | 54% | |
| 11 | 0% | 54% | |
| 12 | 0% | 54% | |
| 13 | 0% | 54% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 54% | |
| 15 | 34% | 53% | Median |
| 16 | 7% | 19% | Last Result |
| 17 | 6% | 11% | |
| 18 | 4% | 6% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 192 | 99.8% | 182–204 | 181–207 | 178–208 | 176–212 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 195 | 184 | 95% | 176–194 | 174–196 | 172–197 | 168–200 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 165 | 5% | 155–173 | 153–175 | 152–177 | 149–181 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 164 | 7% | 154–173 | 152–175 | 151–177 | 148–181 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 167 | 149 | 0% | 138–160 | 135–162 | 133–163 | 129–166 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 148 | 0% | 138–155 | 135–157 | 134–160 | 130–163 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 137 | 0% | 130–148 | 128–150 | 126–152 | 124–155 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 143 | 132 | 0% | 124–141 | 121–145 | 119–146 | 116–150 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 131 | 0% | 124–138 | 122–141 | 120–142 | 117–146 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet | 123 | 124 | 0% | 116–132 | 113–133 | 112–136 | 110–139 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 111 | 0% | 102–119 | 100–122 | 98–123 | 94–126 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 99 | 0% | 91–109 | 89–111 | 86–113 | 83–116 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 91 | 0% | 85–97 | 83–99 | 82–101 | 79–104 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 172 | 0% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 177 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 178 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 179 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 180 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 181 | 3% | 95% | |
| 182 | 4% | 93% | |
| 183 | 3% | 89% | |
| 184 | 2% | 86% | |
| 185 | 5% | 84% | |
| 186 | 5% | 79% | |
| 187 | 3% | 75% | |
| 188 | 5% | 71% | |
| 189 | 2% | 66% | |
| 190 | 2% | 64% | |
| 191 | 7% | 62% | |
| 192 | 6% | 55% | |
| 193 | 3% | 49% | Median |
| 194 | 2% | 47% | |
| 195 | 5% | 44% | |
| 196 | 4% | 40% | |
| 197 | 3% | 35% | |
| 198 | 2% | 33% | |
| 199 | 2% | 30% | |
| 200 | 2% | 28% | |
| 201 | 5% | 26% | Last Result |
| 202 | 4% | 21% | |
| 203 | 2% | 17% | |
| 204 | 6% | 16% | |
| 205 | 1.0% | 10% | |
| 206 | 2% | 9% | |
| 207 | 4% | 7% | |
| 208 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 209 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 210 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 211 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 212 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 213 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 164 | 0% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 171 | 0.8% | 98.7% | |
| 172 | 2% | 98% | |
| 173 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 174 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 175 | 2% | 95% | Majority |
| 176 | 3% | 92% | |
| 177 | 8% | 90% | |
| 178 | 2% | 82% | |
| 179 | 2% | 80% | |
| 180 | 7% | 78% | |
| 181 | 6% | 71% | |
| 182 | 4% | 65% | |
| 183 | 5% | 61% | |
| 184 | 7% | 57% | |
| 185 | 4% | 50% | |
| 186 | 2% | 46% | |
| 187 | 3% | 44% | |
| 188 | 5% | 41% | |
| 189 | 6% | 36% | |
| 190 | 4% | 29% | |
| 191 | 4% | 25% | |
| 192 | 6% | 21% | |
| 193 | 3% | 14% | |
| 194 | 2% | 12% | |
| 195 | 4% | 9% | Last Result |
| 196 | 2% | 5% | Median |
| 197 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 198 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 199 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 200 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 149 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 150 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 151 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 152 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 153 | 2% | 97% | |
| 154 | 4% | 95% | Last Result |
| 155 | 2% | 91% | |
| 156 | 3% | 88% | |
| 157 | 6% | 86% | |
| 158 | 4% | 79% | |
| 159 | 4% | 75% | |
| 160 | 6% | 71% | |
| 161 | 5% | 64% | |
| 162 | 3% | 59% | |
| 163 | 2% | 56% | |
| 164 | 4% | 54% | Median |
| 165 | 7% | 50% | |
| 166 | 5% | 43% | |
| 167 | 4% | 39% | |
| 168 | 6% | 35% | |
| 169 | 7% | 29% | |
| 170 | 2% | 22% | |
| 171 | 2% | 20% | |
| 172 | 8% | 18% | |
| 173 | 3% | 10% | |
| 174 | 2% | 8% | |
| 175 | 1.0% | 5% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 177 | 2% | 4% | |
| 178 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 144 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 148 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 149 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 150 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 151 | 2% | 98% | |
| 152 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 153 | 2% | 95% | |
| 154 | 4% | 93% | |
| 155 | 2% | 89% | |
| 156 | 1.4% | 87% | |
| 157 | 9% | 86% | |
| 158 | 4% | 77% | |
| 159 | 3% | 73% | |
| 160 | 5% | 71% | |
| 161 | 5% | 66% | |
| 162 | 8% | 62% | |
| 163 | 3% | 54% | |
| 164 | 6% | 51% | Median |
| 165 | 3% | 45% | |
| 166 | 3% | 41% | |
| 167 | 3% | 38% | |
| 168 | 2% | 35% | |
| 169 | 4% | 33% | |
| 170 | 6% | 28% | Last Result |
| 171 | 3% | 23% | |
| 172 | 6% | 20% | |
| 173 | 4% | 14% | |
| 174 | 3% | 10% | |
| 175 | 2% | 7% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 5% | |
| 177 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 178 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 179 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 131 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 133 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 134 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 135 | 2% | 96% | |
| 136 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 137 | 2% | 93% | |
| 138 | 3% | 91% | |
| 139 | 1.2% | 89% | |
| 140 | 8% | 88% | |
| 141 | 5% | 80% | |
| 142 | 3% | 75% | |
| 143 | 3% | 71% | |
| 144 | 5% | 68% | |
| 145 | 3% | 64% | |
| 146 | 3% | 61% | |
| 147 | 3% | 58% | |
| 148 | 5% | 55% | |
| 149 | 2% | 51% | |
| 150 | 5% | 48% | |
| 151 | 3% | 43% | |
| 152 | 5% | 40% | |
| 153 | 5% | 35% | |
| 154 | 3% | 31% | |
| 155 | 5% | 28% | |
| 156 | 3% | 22% | |
| 157 | 4% | 19% | |
| 158 | 3% | 15% | |
| 159 | 1.4% | 11% | |
| 160 | 3% | 10% | Median |
| 161 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 162 | 3% | 6% | |
| 163 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 164 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 165 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 132 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 133 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 134 | 2% | 98% | |
| 135 | 3% | 96% | |
| 136 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 137 | 1.1% | 92% | |
| 138 | 2% | 91% | |
| 139 | 2% | 89% | |
| 140 | 2% | 87% | |
| 141 | 3% | 85% | |
| 142 | 3% | 82% | |
| 143 | 3% | 80% | |
| 144 | 5% | 76% | Last Result |
| 145 | 9% | 72% | |
| 146 | 6% | 62% | |
| 147 | 5% | 56% | |
| 148 | 11% | 51% | |
| 149 | 7% | 41% | |
| 150 | 6% | 34% | |
| 151 | 5% | 28% | |
| 152 | 5% | 22% | |
| 153 | 4% | 18% | Median |
| 154 | 3% | 14% | |
| 155 | 4% | 11% | |
| 156 | 2% | 7% | |
| 157 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 159 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 160 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 161 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 124 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 125 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 126 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 127 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 128 | 1.4% | 96% | Last Result |
| 129 | 3% | 94% | |
| 130 | 5% | 91% | |
| 131 | 4% | 87% | |
| 132 | 4% | 83% | |
| 133 | 5% | 79% | |
| 134 | 7% | 74% | |
| 135 | 7% | 67% | |
| 136 | 6% | 60% | |
| 137 | 5% | 54% | |
| 138 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 139 | 6% | 45% | |
| 140 | 2% | 40% | |
| 141 | 3% | 38% | |
| 142 | 2% | 34% | |
| 143 | 3% | 32% | |
| 144 | 3% | 29% | |
| 145 | 5% | 26% | |
| 146 | 4% | 21% | |
| 147 | 2% | 17% | |
| 148 | 6% | 16% | |
| 149 | 2% | 10% | |
| 150 | 3% | 8% | |
| 151 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 152 | 2% | 3% | |
| 153 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 117 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 118 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 119 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 120 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 121 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 122 | 2% | 95% | |
| 123 | 3% | 93% | |
| 124 | 1.0% | 90% | |
| 125 | 2% | 89% | |
| 126 | 2% | 87% | |
| 127 | 8% | 84% | |
| 128 | 4% | 77% | |
| 129 | 5% | 73% | |
| 130 | 3% | 68% | |
| 131 | 7% | 66% | |
| 132 | 10% | 58% | |
| 133 | 5% | 48% | |
| 134 | 2% | 43% | |
| 135 | 4% | 41% | |
| 136 | 5% | 36% | |
| 137 | 7% | 32% | |
| 138 | 4% | 25% | Median |
| 139 | 4% | 21% | |
| 140 | 1.4% | 16% | |
| 141 | 5% | 15% | |
| 142 | 2% | 10% | |
| 143 | 1.4% | 7% | Last Result |
| 144 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 145 | 2% | 5% | |
| 146 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 147 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 119 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 120 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 121 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 122 | 2% | 96% | |
| 123 | 2% | 94% | |
| 124 | 3% | 92% | |
| 125 | 5% | 89% | |
| 126 | 6% | 84% | |
| 127 | 8% | 78% | |
| 128 | 7% | 70% | |
| 129 | 5% | 63% | |
| 130 | 5% | 58% | |
| 131 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 132 | 7% | 48% | Last Result |
| 133 | 6% | 41% | |
| 134 | 6% | 35% | |
| 135 | 6% | 29% | |
| 136 | 7% | 23% | |
| 137 | 3% | 17% | |
| 138 | 4% | 14% | |
| 139 | 2% | 10% | |
| 140 | 2% | 8% | |
| 141 | 2% | 6% | |
| 142 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 144 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 108 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 112 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 113 | 2% | 97% | |
| 114 | 2% | 95% | |
| 115 | 2% | 93% | |
| 116 | 2% | 91% | |
| 117 | 3% | 89% | |
| 118 | 5% | 86% | |
| 119 | 7% | 81% | |
| 120 | 3% | 74% | |
| 121 | 5% | 71% | |
| 122 | 4% | 66% | |
| 123 | 9% | 62% | Last Result |
| 124 | 4% | 53% | Median |
| 125 | 6% | 48% | |
| 126 | 4% | 43% | |
| 127 | 7% | 38% | |
| 128 | 4% | 31% | |
| 129 | 5% | 27% | |
| 130 | 3% | 22% | |
| 131 | 6% | 20% | |
| 132 | 6% | 13% | |
| 133 | 2% | 7% | |
| 134 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 135 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 136 | 2% | 4% | |
| 137 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 96 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 98 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 99 | 2% | 97% | |
| 100 | 3% | 95% | |
| 101 | 2% | 92% | |
| 102 | 4% | 90% | |
| 103 | 2% | 86% | |
| 104 | 3% | 84% | |
| 105 | 3% | 82% | |
| 106 | 4% | 78% | |
| 107 | 3% | 74% | |
| 108 | 10% | 71% | |
| 109 | 6% | 61% | |
| 110 | 5% | 55% | |
| 111 | 6% | 50% | |
| 112 | 4% | 44% | |
| 113 | 5% | 40% | |
| 114 | 7% | 35% | |
| 115 | 5% | 28% | |
| 116 | 5% | 23% | Last Result |
| 117 | 5% | 18% | Median |
| 118 | 2% | 14% | |
| 119 | 2% | 11% | |
| 120 | 3% | 9% | |
| 121 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 122 | 2% | 5% | |
| 123 | 2% | 3% | |
| 124 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 85 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 86 | 1.2% | 98.5% | |
| 87 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 88 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 89 | 2% | 95% | |
| 90 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 91 | 4% | 91% | |
| 92 | 3% | 88% | |
| 93 | 4% | 85% | |
| 94 | 4% | 80% | |
| 95 | 5% | 76% | |
| 96 | 6% | 71% | |
| 97 | 4% | 65% | |
| 98 | 7% | 61% | |
| 99 | 5% | 55% | |
| 100 | 3% | 50% | |
| 101 | 4% | 47% | |
| 102 | 4% | 43% | |
| 103 | 3% | 39% | |
| 104 | 5% | 36% | |
| 105 | 7% | 31% | Median |
| 106 | 4% | 24% | |
| 107 | 6% | 20% | |
| 108 | 3% | 14% | |
| 109 | 2% | 11% | |
| 110 | 3% | 9% | |
| 111 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 112 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 113 | 2% | 3% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 81 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 82 | 2% | 98% | |
| 83 | 2% | 96% | |
| 84 | 4% | 94% | |
| 85 | 4% | 90% | |
| 86 | 4% | 87% | |
| 87 | 5% | 83% | |
| 88 | 5% | 78% | |
| 89 | 9% | 72% | |
| 90 | 7% | 63% | |
| 91 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 92 | 6% | 48% | |
| 93 | 9% | 42% | |
| 94 | 6% | 34% | |
| 95 | 8% | 27% | |
| 96 | 6% | 20% | |
| 97 | 4% | 14% | |
| 98 | 3% | 10% | |
| 99 | 3% | 7% | |
| 100 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 101 | 1.2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Dagens Nyheter
- Fieldwork period: 7–20 February 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1504
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.04%