Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 4 February–3 March 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 28.2% | 27.3–29.2% | 27.0–29.4% | 26.8–29.7% | 26.3–30.1% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.3% | 18.5–20.1% | 18.2–20.4% | 18.0–20.6% | 17.7–21.0% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 18.3% | 17.5–19.1% | 17.3–19.4% | 17.1–19.6% | 16.7–20.0% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.5–9.7% | 8.3–9.9% | 8.2–10.1% | 7.9–10.4% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.0–9.2% | 7.9–9.4% | 7.7–9.6% | 7.5–9.9% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.8–7.9% | 6.6–8.1% | 6.5–8.2% | 6.3–8.5% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.6–4.4% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.1–3.9% | 3.0–4.1% | 3.0–4.2% | 2.8–4.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 105 | 101–110 | 100–111 | 99–112 | 96–114 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 72 | 68–76 | 68–78 | 66–78 | 65–80 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 68 | 65–72 | 64–73 | 63–74 | 61–76 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 34 | 32–36 | 31–37 | 30–38 | 29–39 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 33 | 30–35 | 29–35 | 29–35 | 28–37 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 27 | 25–30 | 25–30 | 24–31 | 23–32 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 15 | 0–16 | 0–17 | 0–17 | 0–18 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0–14 | 0–15 | 0–16 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 98 | 1.2% | 98.8% | |
| 99 | 3% | 98% | |
| 100 | 3% | 95% | Last Result |
| 101 | 7% | 92% | |
| 102 | 9% | 85% | |
| 103 | 13% | 76% | |
| 104 | 10% | 63% | |
| 105 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 106 | 7% | 46% | |
| 107 | 8% | 38% | |
| 108 | 6% | 31% | |
| 109 | 8% | 25% | |
| 110 | 7% | 17% | |
| 111 | 5% | 10% | |
| 112 | 3% | 5% | |
| 113 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 67 | 2% | 97% | |
| 68 | 6% | 95% | |
| 69 | 8% | 89% | |
| 70 | 8% | 81% | |
| 71 | 15% | 73% | |
| 72 | 15% | 58% | Median |
| 73 | 9% | 44% | |
| 74 | 10% | 35% | |
| 75 | 12% | 25% | |
| 76 | 4% | 13% | |
| 77 | 4% | 9% | |
| 78 | 3% | 5% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 80 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 63 | 3% | 98% | |
| 64 | 5% | 95% | |
| 65 | 7% | 91% | |
| 66 | 8% | 84% | |
| 67 | 15% | 76% | |
| 68 | 15% | 61% | Median |
| 69 | 13% | 46% | |
| 70 | 13% | 33% | Last Result |
| 71 | 6% | 20% | |
| 72 | 7% | 15% | |
| 73 | 4% | 8% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | |
| 75 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 31 | 5% | 97% | |
| 32 | 14% | 92% | |
| 33 | 24% | 78% | |
| 34 | 17% | 54% | Median |
| 35 | 19% | 37% | |
| 36 | 10% | 18% | |
| 37 | 4% | 8% | |
| 38 | 3% | 4% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 29 | 5% | 98% | |
| 30 | 5% | 93% | |
| 31 | 11% | 88% | |
| 32 | 25% | 77% | |
| 33 | 28% | 52% | Median |
| 34 | 13% | 24% | |
| 35 | 9% | 11% | |
| 36 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 25 | 9% | 96% | |
| 26 | 22% | 87% | |
| 27 | 19% | 65% | Median |
| 28 | 21% | 46% | |
| 29 | 14% | 24% | |
| 30 | 8% | 11% | |
| 31 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 46% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 54% | |
| 2 | 0% | 54% | |
| 3 | 0% | 54% | |
| 4 | 0% | 54% | |
| 5 | 0% | 54% | |
| 6 | 0% | 54% | |
| 7 | 0% | 54% | |
| 8 | 0% | 54% | |
| 9 | 0% | 54% | |
| 10 | 0% | 54% | |
| 11 | 0% | 54% | |
| 12 | 0% | 54% | |
| 13 | 0% | 54% | |
| 14 | 1.2% | 54% | |
| 15 | 28% | 53% | Median |
| 16 | 19% | 26% | Last Result |
| 17 | 5% | 6% | |
| 18 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 6% | |
| 9 | 0% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0% | 6% | |
| 11 | 0% | 6% | |
| 12 | 0% | 6% | |
| 13 | 0% | 6% | |
| 14 | 2% | 6% | |
| 15 | 3% | 5% | |
| 16 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 200 | 100% | 194–209 | 192–210 | 190–212 | 187–213 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 176 | 60% | 169–182 | 167–185 | 166–186 | 165–190 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 173 | 42% | 167–181 | 166–183 | 164–183 | 161–185 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 173 | 40% | 167–180 | 164–182 | 163–183 | 159–184 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 148 | 0% | 140–154 | 139–156 | 138–157 | 135–159 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 143 | 0% | 134–149 | 133–151 | 132–154 | 130–158 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 140 | 0% | 135–147 | 133–148 | 132–149 | 129–152 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 139 | 0% | 134–146 | 133–146 | 131–147 | 128–150 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 143 | 129 | 0% | 124–135 | 122–136 | 122–139 | 120–145 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet | 123 | 128 | 0% | 123–133 | 121–135 | 120–136 | 117–138 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 115 | 0% | 106–121 | 104–122 | 103–123 | 101–125 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 96 | 0% | 92–102 | 91–104 | 90–108 | 88–113 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 95 | 0% | 92–100 | 90–101 | 89–103 | 87–104 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 184 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 188 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 190 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 191 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 192 | 2% | 96% | |
| 193 | 3% | 95% | |
| 194 | 4% | 92% | |
| 195 | 7% | 88% | |
| 196 | 5% | 81% | |
| 197 | 11% | 76% | |
| 198 | 6% | 65% | |
| 199 | 5% | 59% | |
| 200 | 5% | 55% | Median |
| 201 | 4% | 50% | Last Result |
| 202 | 6% | 46% | |
| 203 | 3% | 41% | |
| 204 | 6% | 37% | |
| 205 | 3% | 31% | |
| 206 | 6% | 28% | |
| 207 | 6% | 22% | |
| 208 | 4% | 16% | |
| 209 | 4% | 11% | |
| 210 | 3% | 8% | |
| 211 | 2% | 5% | |
| 212 | 2% | 3% | |
| 213 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 162 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 166 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 167 | 3% | 97% | |
| 168 | 4% | 94% | |
| 169 | 3% | 90% | |
| 170 | 3% | 87% | |
| 171 | 7% | 84% | |
| 172 | 7% | 77% | |
| 173 | 7% | 70% | |
| 174 | 3% | 64% | |
| 175 | 4% | 60% | Majority |
| 176 | 8% | 57% | |
| 177 | 8% | 48% | |
| 178 | 6% | 41% | |
| 179 | 9% | 34% | |
| 180 | 6% | 25% | |
| 181 | 6% | 19% | Median |
| 182 | 3% | 13% | |
| 183 | 3% | 10% | |
| 184 | 2% | 7% | |
| 185 | 2% | 5% | |
| 186 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 187 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 188 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 190 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 162 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 164 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 165 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 166 | 2% | 96% | |
| 167 | 5% | 93% | |
| 168 | 3% | 88% | |
| 169 | 10% | 85% | |
| 170 | 6% | 75% | Last Result |
| 171 | 11% | 69% | |
| 172 | 5% | 59% | |
| 173 | 5% | 54% | Median |
| 174 | 6% | 48% | |
| 175 | 5% | 42% | Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 38% | |
| 177 | 6% | 33% | |
| 178 | 4% | 28% | |
| 179 | 7% | 24% | |
| 180 | 4% | 16% | |
| 181 | 5% | 12% | |
| 182 | 2% | 7% | |
| 183 | 3% | 5% | |
| 184 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 185 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 161 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 162 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 163 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 164 | 2% | 96% | |
| 165 | 2% | 95% | |
| 166 | 3% | 93% | |
| 167 | 3% | 90% | |
| 168 | 6% | 87% | |
| 169 | 6% | 81% | |
| 170 | 9% | 75% | |
| 171 | 6% | 66% | |
| 172 | 8% | 59% | |
| 173 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 174 | 4% | 43% | |
| 175 | 3% | 40% | Majority |
| 176 | 7% | 36% | |
| 177 | 7% | 30% | |
| 178 | 7% | 23% | |
| 179 | 3% | 16% | |
| 180 | 3% | 13% | |
| 181 | 4% | 10% | |
| 182 | 3% | 6% | |
| 183 | 2% | 3% | |
| 184 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 135 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 136 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 137 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 138 | 2% | 98% | |
| 139 | 4% | 96% | |
| 140 | 4% | 92% | |
| 141 | 4% | 88% | |
| 142 | 3% | 84% | |
| 143 | 6% | 81% | |
| 144 | 5% | 75% | Last Result |
| 145 | 7% | 70% | |
| 146 | 7% | 63% | |
| 147 | 2% | 55% | |
| 148 | 4% | 53% | |
| 149 | 4% | 49% | |
| 150 | 4% | 45% | |
| 151 | 13% | 41% | |
| 152 | 5% | 28% | |
| 153 | 10% | 22% | |
| 154 | 2% | 12% | Median |
| 155 | 4% | 10% | |
| 156 | 4% | 6% | |
| 157 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 158 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 131 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 132 | 2% | 98% | |
| 133 | 3% | 95% | |
| 134 | 4% | 93% | |
| 135 | 4% | 89% | |
| 136 | 6% | 85% | |
| 137 | 7% | 79% | |
| 138 | 8% | 72% | |
| 139 | 3% | 65% | |
| 140 | 2% | 62% | |
| 141 | 2% | 59% | |
| 142 | 4% | 57% | |
| 143 | 6% | 54% | |
| 144 | 14% | 48% | |
| 145 | 4% | 33% | |
| 146 | 5% | 29% | |
| 147 | 6% | 24% | Median |
| 148 | 4% | 18% | |
| 149 | 5% | 14% | |
| 150 | 2% | 9% | |
| 151 | 2% | 7% | |
| 152 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 154 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 155 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 131 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 132 | 3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 133 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 134 | 4% | 94% | |
| 135 | 3% | 90% | |
| 136 | 7% | 88% | |
| 137 | 6% | 81% | |
| 138 | 11% | 75% | |
| 139 | 3% | 64% | |
| 140 | 15% | 61% | Median |
| 141 | 4% | 46% | |
| 142 | 8% | 43% | |
| 143 | 8% | 35% | |
| 144 | 6% | 27% | |
| 145 | 6% | 21% | |
| 146 | 3% | 15% | |
| 147 | 2% | 12% | |
| 148 | 5% | 10% | |
| 149 | 2% | 5% | |
| 150 | 2% | 2% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 129 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 130 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 131 | 2% | 98% | |
| 132 | 2% | 97% | |
| 133 | 4% | 95% | |
| 134 | 4% | 91% | |
| 135 | 4% | 87% | |
| 136 | 14% | 83% | |
| 137 | 14% | 69% | |
| 138 | 4% | 55% | |
| 139 | 6% | 51% | Median |
| 140 | 7% | 45% | |
| 141 | 7% | 38% | |
| 142 | 4% | 31% | |
| 143 | 6% | 27% | |
| 144 | 5% | 21% | |
| 145 | 6% | 16% | |
| 146 | 7% | 10% | |
| 147 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 148 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 150 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 121 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 122 | 3% | 98% | |
| 123 | 2% | 95% | |
| 124 | 4% | 93% | |
| 125 | 10% | 89% | |
| 126 | 13% | 79% | |
| 127 | 5% | 65% | |
| 128 | 9% | 60% | Median |
| 129 | 7% | 50% | |
| 130 | 6% | 44% | |
| 131 | 10% | 37% | |
| 132 | 8% | 27% | |
| 133 | 5% | 19% | |
| 134 | 3% | 14% | |
| 135 | 4% | 11% | |
| 136 | 3% | 7% | |
| 137 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 138 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 139 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 140 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 144 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 118 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 120 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 121 | 2% | 97% | |
| 122 | 3% | 95% | |
| 123 | 2% | 92% | Last Result |
| 124 | 4% | 89% | |
| 125 | 11% | 85% | |
| 126 | 14% | 74% | |
| 127 | 6% | 60% | |
| 128 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 129 | 7% | 45% | |
| 130 | 7% | 38% | |
| 131 | 9% | 31% | |
| 132 | 8% | 22% | |
| 133 | 4% | 14% | |
| 134 | 2% | 10% | |
| 135 | 4% | 7% | |
| 136 | 2% | 3% | |
| 137 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 103 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 104 | 3% | 97% | |
| 105 | 3% | 94% | |
| 106 | 4% | 91% | |
| 107 | 5% | 87% | |
| 108 | 5% | 82% | |
| 109 | 7% | 77% | |
| 110 | 7% | 71% | |
| 111 | 5% | 64% | |
| 112 | 4% | 59% | |
| 113 | 1.5% | 55% | |
| 114 | 2% | 54% | |
| 115 | 3% | 51% | |
| 116 | 5% | 49% | Last Result |
| 117 | 4% | 44% | |
| 118 | 16% | 40% | |
| 119 | 7% | 25% | |
| 120 | 5% | 17% | Median |
| 121 | 4% | 12% | |
| 122 | 4% | 8% | |
| 123 | 2% | 5% | |
| 124 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 90 | 2% | 98% | |
| 91 | 3% | 96% | |
| 92 | 4% | 93% | |
| 93 | 13% | 89% | |
| 94 | 12% | 76% | |
| 95 | 11% | 64% | Median |
| 96 | 8% | 53% | |
| 97 | 7% | 45% | |
| 98 | 11% | 38% | |
| 99 | 7% | 27% | |
| 100 | 6% | 20% | |
| 101 | 3% | 13% | |
| 102 | 3% | 10% | |
| 103 | 2% | 8% | |
| 104 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 105 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 108 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 109 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 88 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 89 | 2% | 98% | |
| 90 | 3% | 96% | |
| 91 | 3% | 93% | |
| 92 | 5% | 90% | |
| 93 | 14% | 86% | |
| 94 | 13% | 72% | |
| 95 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 96 | 8% | 47% | |
| 97 | 7% | 39% | |
| 98 | 11% | 32% | |
| 99 | 7% | 21% | |
| 100 | 6% | 14% | |
| 101 | 3% | 8% | Last Result |
| 102 | 2% | 5% | |
| 103 | 2% | 3% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 4 February–3 March 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 3707
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.58%