Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 3–14 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 27.4% 26.8–28.0% 26.6–28.2% 26.5–28.3% 26.2–28.6%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 19.1% 18.6–19.6% 18.4–19.8% 18.3–19.9% 18.0–20.2%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 17.5% 17.0–18.0% 16.8–18.2% 16.7–18.3% 16.5–18.5%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 9.8% 9.4–10.2% 9.3–10.3% 9.2–10.4% 9.0–10.6%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 9.4% 9.0–9.8% 8.9–9.9% 8.8–10.0% 8.6–10.2%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 8.3% 7.9–8.7% 7.8–8.8% 7.7–8.9% 7.6–9.1%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 3.8% 3.6–4.1% 3.5–4.1% 3.4–4.2% 3.3–4.4%
Liberalerna 5.5% 3.3% 3.1–3.6% 3.0–3.6% 2.9–3.7% 2.8–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 104 100–106 98–107 98–108 97–109
Sverigedemokraterna 62 72 70–75 69–75 68–76 67–77
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 66 64–68 63–69 62–70 61–70
Vänsterpartiet 28 37 35–39 35–39 34–40 34–40
Kristdemokraterna 22 36 34–37 33–38 33–38 32–39
Centerpartiet 31 32 30–33 29–34 29–34 28–35
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 0 0–15 0–15 0–15 0–16
Liberalerna 20 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 0.6% 99.8%  
98 4% 99.1%  
99 4% 95%  
100 3% 91% Last Result
101 6% 87%  
102 12% 81%  
103 11% 70%  
104 21% 59% Median
105 18% 38%  
106 10% 20%  
107 6% 10%  
108 3% 4%  
109 0.7% 0.9%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.3% 100%  
67 0.6% 99.6%  
68 4% 99.0%  
69 5% 95%  
70 9% 90%  
71 11% 81%  
72 20% 70% Median
73 23% 50%  
74 12% 27%  
75 12% 15%  
76 3% 3%  
77 0.4% 0.6%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 1.0% 99.8%  
62 2% 98.9%  
63 6% 97%  
64 10% 91%  
65 18% 81%  
66 18% 64% Median
67 20% 45%  
68 17% 25%  
69 6% 8%  
70 2% 3% Last Result
71 0.4% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.3% 100%  
34 3% 99.7%  
35 7% 97%  
36 16% 90%  
37 40% 74% Median
38 19% 33%  
39 10% 15%  
40 4% 4%  
41 0.5% 0.5%  
42 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.7% 99.9%  
33 6% 99.2%  
34 15% 93%  
35 21% 78%  
36 34% 58% Median
37 17% 24%  
38 7% 8%  
39 1.0% 1.1%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.9%  
29 6% 99.4%  
30 18% 94%  
31 25% 75% Last Result
32 29% 50% Median
33 16% 21%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.7% 0.8%  
36 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Median
1 0% 19%  
2 0% 19%  
3 0% 19%  
4 0% 19%  
5 0% 19%  
6 0% 19%  
7 0% 19%  
8 0% 19%  
9 0% 19%  
10 0% 19%  
11 0% 19%  
12 0% 19%  
13 0% 19%  
14 0% 19%  
15 17% 19%  
16 2% 2% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 202 100% 194–205 193–206 192–207 190–208
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 195 174 48% 171–181 170–182 170–183 169–185
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna 154 175 52% 168–178 167–179 166–179 164–180
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 170 4% 164–173 162–174 162–175 160–176
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 142 0% 139–151 139–152 138–153 137–154
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 167 137 0% 134–145 133–146 133–147 131–148
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 141 0% 136–144 135–145 134–145 133–147
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 132 139 0% 134–142 132–143 132–143 130–144
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 143 134 0% 129–136 128–137 127–138 125–139
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet 123 134 0% 129–136 128–137 127–138 125–139
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 105 0% 102–114 102–116 101–117 100–118
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 98 0% 94–100 94–101 92–102 91–103
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 98 0% 94–100 94–101 92–102 91–103

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0% 100%  
190 0.4% 99.9%  
191 1.5% 99.5%  
192 0.9% 98%  
193 6% 97%  
194 3% 91%  
195 2% 89%  
196 3% 86%  
197 2% 84%  
198 0.7% 82%  
199 3% 81%  
200 4% 78%  
201 13% 75% Last Result
202 17% 61% Median
203 19% 44%  
204 12% 26%  
205 8% 14%  
206 3% 6%  
207 2% 3%  
208 0.3% 0.5%  
209 0.2% 0.2%  
210 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
167 0.1% 100%  
168 0.2% 99.9%  
169 2% 99.8%  
170 3% 98%  
171 11% 95%  
172 9% 84%  
173 19% 75% Median
174 9% 57%  
175 17% 48% Majority
176 6% 30%  
177 5% 25%  
178 2% 20%  
179 1.4% 18%  
180 3% 16%  
181 5% 13%  
182 4% 8%  
183 2% 4%  
184 0.9% 2%  
185 0.4% 0.7%  
186 0.2% 0.2%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100% Last Result
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 100%  
163 0.2% 100%  
164 0.4% 99.8%  
165 0.9% 99.3%  
166 2% 98%  
167 4% 96%  
168 5% 92%  
169 3% 87%  
170 1.4% 84%  
171 2% 82%  
172 5% 80%  
173 6% 75%  
174 17% 70% Median
175 9% 52% Majority
176 19% 43%  
177 9% 25%  
178 11% 16%  
179 3% 5%  
180 2% 2%  
181 0.2% 0.2%  
182 0.1% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0.1% 100%  
160 0.5% 99.8%  
161 1.4% 99.3%  
162 5% 98%  
163 3% 93%  
164 3% 90%  
165 3% 88%  
166 1.1% 85%  
167 3% 84%  
168 4% 80%  
169 10% 76%  
170 18% 66% Last Result, Median
171 20% 49%  
172 10% 29%  
173 10% 18%  
174 5% 8%  
175 2% 4% Majority
176 1.1% 1.3%  
177 0.2% 0.3%  
178 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0.1% 100%  
137 0.5% 99.8%  
138 3% 99.3%  
139 6% 96%  
140 9% 90%  
141 18% 81% Median
142 14% 63%  
143 16% 49%  
144 7% 33% Last Result
145 5% 26%  
146 2% 21%  
147 0.7% 19%  
148 1.3% 18%  
149 3% 17%  
150 3% 14%  
151 4% 11%  
152 4% 7%  
153 2% 3%  
154 1.1% 1.3%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0.1% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0.1% 100%  
131 0.5% 99.9%  
132 1.3% 99.4%  
133 4% 98%  
134 13% 94%  
135 13% 81%  
136 17% 69% Median
137 13% 51%  
138 10% 38%  
139 5% 28%  
140 3% 22%  
141 0.9% 19%  
142 0.5% 19%  
143 2% 18%  
144 4% 16%  
145 4% 12%  
146 4% 8%  
147 2% 4%  
148 2% 2%  
149 0.3% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0% 100% Last Result
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0.1% 100%  
132 0.3% 99.8%  
133 1.3% 99.5%  
134 3% 98%  
135 3% 95%  
136 4% 92%  
137 4% 88%  
138 5% 83%  
139 7% 79%  
140 9% 72%  
141 18% 62% Median
142 14% 44%  
143 16% 31%  
144 7% 14%  
145 5% 7%  
146 2% 2%  
147 0.5% 0.6%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0% 100%  
129 0.4% 99.9%  
130 0.6% 99.6%  
131 1.3% 99.0%  
132 3% 98% Last Result
133 4% 95%  
134 3% 90%  
135 4% 88%  
136 5% 83%  
137 8% 78%  
138 16% 70% Median
139 11% 54%  
140 19% 43%  
141 10% 25%  
142 9% 15%  
143 4% 6%  
144 1.0% 1.3%  
145 0.3% 0.3%  
146 0.1% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0.2% 99.9%  
125 0.6% 99.7%  
126 1.4% 99.1%  
127 2% 98%  
128 5% 95%  
129 3% 90%  
130 5% 87%  
131 7% 81%  
132 7% 74%  
133 14% 68%  
134 19% 54% Median
135 9% 35%  
136 17% 26%  
137 5% 9%  
138 2% 4%  
139 1.4% 2%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100% Last Result
124 0.2% 99.9%  
125 0.6% 99.7%  
126 1.4% 99.1%  
127 2% 98%  
128 5% 95%  
129 3% 90%  
130 5% 87%  
131 7% 81%  
132 7% 74%  
133 14% 68%  
134 19% 54% Median
135 9% 35%  
136 17% 26%  
137 5% 9%  
138 2% 4%  
139 1.4% 2%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0.1% 100%  
100 1.1% 99.9%  
101 2% 98.7%  
102 9% 97%  
103 11% 87%  
104 20% 77% Median
105 18% 56%  
106 10% 39%  
107 6% 28%  
108 3% 23%  
109 0.7% 19%  
110 0.2% 19%  
111 0.2% 18%  
112 0.6% 18%  
113 4% 18%  
114 4% 14%  
115 2% 10%  
116 3% 7% Last Result
117 3% 4%  
118 0.7% 1.0%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.2% 100%  
90 0.3% 99.8%  
91 0.6% 99.6%  
92 2% 98.9%  
93 2% 97%  
94 6% 95%  
95 7% 89%  
96 11% 81%  
97 15% 70%  
98 17% 55% Median
99 16% 38%  
100 14% 23%  
101 5% 8%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.5% 0.7%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.2% 100%  
90 0.3% 99.8%  
91 0.6% 99.6%  
92 2% 98.9%  
93 2% 97%  
94 6% 95%  
95 7% 89%  
96 11% 81%  
97 15% 70%  
98 17% 55% Median
99 16% 38%  
100 14% 23%  
101 5% 8% Last Result
102 2% 3%  
103 0.5% 0.6%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations