Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 12–25 March 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 27.0% | 25.6–28.5% | 25.2–28.9% | 24.8–29.3% | 24.2–30.0% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.0% | 17.8–20.4% | 17.4–20.8% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.6–21.7% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 18.0% | 16.8–19.3% | 16.4–19.7% | 16.1–20.0% | 15.6–20.6% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.1–11.1% | 8.8–11.4% | 8.6–11.6% | 8.2–12.1% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 9.0% | 8.1–10.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.7–10.6% | 7.3–11.1% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.1–8.9% | 6.9–9.2% | 6.7–9.4% | 6.3–9.9% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.5% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 99 | 93–106 | 91–108 | 89–109 | 86–112 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 70 | 64–75 | 63–77 | 62–78 | 60–81 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 66 | 60–72 | 59–72 | 58–74 | 56–77 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 36 | 33–41 | 32–42 | 31–42 | 30–45 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 33 | 30–37 | 29–39 | 28–39 | 26–41 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 29 | 26–33 | 25–33 | 24–35 | 23–36 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0–16 | 0–18 | 0–19 | 0–19 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 14 | 0–17 | 0–18 | 0–18 | 0–20 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 88 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 89 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 90 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 91 | 3% | 96% | |
| 92 | 2% | 93% | |
| 93 | 4% | 90% | |
| 94 | 7% | 87% | |
| 95 | 6% | 80% | |
| 96 | 7% | 74% | |
| 97 | 10% | 67% | |
| 98 | 6% | 58% | |
| 99 | 6% | 52% | Median |
| 100 | 7% | 45% | Last Result |
| 101 | 6% | 38% | |
| 102 | 6% | 33% | |
| 103 | 5% | 26% | |
| 104 | 5% | 21% | |
| 105 | 2% | 16% | |
| 106 | 5% | 14% | |
| 107 | 3% | 9% | |
| 108 | 2% | 6% | |
| 109 | 2% | 4% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 63 | 2% | 96% | |
| 64 | 4% | 94% | |
| 65 | 7% | 90% | |
| 66 | 6% | 83% | |
| 67 | 4% | 76% | |
| 68 | 12% | 73% | |
| 69 | 10% | 61% | |
| 70 | 11% | 50% | Median |
| 71 | 8% | 40% | |
| 72 | 4% | 32% | |
| 73 | 10% | 27% | |
| 74 | 5% | 18% | |
| 75 | 2% | 12% | |
| 76 | 5% | 10% | |
| 77 | 2% | 5% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 58 | 1.5% | 98.6% | |
| 59 | 3% | 97% | |
| 60 | 5% | 94% | |
| 61 | 3% | 89% | |
| 62 | 4% | 85% | |
| 63 | 4% | 81% | |
| 64 | 15% | 76% | |
| 65 | 9% | 62% | |
| 66 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 67 | 7% | 42% | |
| 68 | 11% | 35% | |
| 69 | 7% | 25% | |
| 70 | 4% | 18% | Last Result |
| 71 | 3% | 13% | |
| 72 | 6% | 10% | |
| 73 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 74 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 31 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 32 | 6% | 97% | |
| 33 | 6% | 91% | |
| 34 | 7% | 86% | |
| 35 | 14% | 79% | |
| 36 | 15% | 65% | Median |
| 37 | 17% | 50% | |
| 38 | 9% | 33% | |
| 39 | 7% | 24% | |
| 40 | 4% | 17% | |
| 41 | 6% | 13% | |
| 42 | 4% | 6% | |
| 43 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98% | |
| 29 | 5% | 96% | |
| 30 | 6% | 91% | |
| 31 | 12% | 85% | |
| 32 | 19% | 72% | |
| 33 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 34 | 11% | 42% | |
| 35 | 11% | 32% | |
| 36 | 9% | 21% | |
| 37 | 3% | 12% | |
| 38 | 3% | 8% | |
| 39 | 3% | 5% | |
| 40 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 25 | 3% | 97% | |
| 26 | 11% | 94% | |
| 27 | 7% | 83% | |
| 28 | 17% | 76% | |
| 29 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 30 | 10% | 46% | |
| 31 | 14% | 36% | Last Result |
| 32 | 8% | 22% | |
| 33 | 9% | 14% | |
| 34 | 2% | 5% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 56% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 44% | |
| 2 | 0% | 44% | |
| 3 | 0% | 44% | |
| 4 | 0% | 44% | |
| 5 | 0% | 44% | |
| 6 | 0% | 44% | |
| 7 | 0% | 44% | |
| 8 | 0% | 44% | |
| 9 | 0% | 44% | |
| 10 | 0% | 44% | |
| 11 | 0% | 44% | |
| 12 | 0% | 44% | |
| 13 | 0% | 44% | |
| 14 | 0% | 44% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 44% | |
| 16 | 38% | 43% | |
| 17 | 0% | 6% | |
| 18 | 3% | 6% | |
| 19 | 3% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 49% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 51% | |
| 2 | 0% | 51% | |
| 3 | 0% | 51% | |
| 4 | 0% | 51% | |
| 5 | 0% | 51% | |
| 6 | 0% | 51% | |
| 7 | 0% | 51% | |
| 8 | 0% | 51% | |
| 9 | 0% | 51% | |
| 10 | 0% | 51% | |
| 11 | 0% | 51% | |
| 12 | 0% | 51% | |
| 13 | 0% | 51% | |
| 14 | 3% | 51% | Median |
| 15 | 22% | 48% | |
| 16 | 11% | 26% | Last Result |
| 17 | 8% | 15% | |
| 18 | 4% | 7% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 194 | 99.7% | 184–205 | 181–208 | 180–210 | 176–212 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 195 | 180 | 80% | 172–189 | 168–191 | 167–193 | 163–197 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 169 | 20% | 160–177 | 158–181 | 156–182 | 152–186 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 165 | 11% | 156–175 | 154–177 | 151–179 | 148–181 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 144 | 0% | 134–154 | 132–156 | 130–158 | 126–161 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 167 | 144 | 0% | 133–153 | 131–156 | 128–157 | 126–161 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 143 | 135 | 0% | 126–145 | 123–148 | 121–150 | 118–153 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 135 | 0% | 127–144 | 126–147 | 124–149 | 121–152 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 136 | 0% | 129–143 | 126–145 | 124–147 | 121–151 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet | 123 | 128 | 0% | 121–136 | 118–137 | 117–140 | 115–143 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 107 | 0% | 97–117 | 95–119 | 93–121 | 91–123 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 102 | 0% | 92–112 | 90–115 | 89–116 | 86–120 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 95 | 0% | 89–101 | 87–103 | 86–104 | 83–108 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 172 | 0% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 177 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 178 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 179 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 180 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 181 | 3% | 97% | |
| 182 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 183 | 2% | 93% | |
| 184 | 2% | 91% | |
| 185 | 2% | 89% | |
| 186 | 7% | 87% | |
| 187 | 3% | 80% | |
| 188 | 3% | 77% | |
| 189 | 3% | 73% | |
| 190 | 2% | 70% | |
| 191 | 4% | 68% | |
| 192 | 3% | 64% | |
| 193 | 4% | 61% | |
| 194 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 195 | 4% | 49% | |
| 196 | 6% | 45% | |
| 197 | 7% | 39% | |
| 198 | 3% | 31% | |
| 199 | 2% | 28% | |
| 200 | 4% | 26% | |
| 201 | 4% | 22% | Last Result |
| 202 | 2% | 18% | |
| 203 | 1.4% | 16% | |
| 204 | 2% | 14% | |
| 205 | 3% | 12% | |
| 206 | 0.6% | 9% | |
| 207 | 3% | 9% | |
| 208 | 2% | 6% | |
| 209 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 210 | 2% | 3% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 212 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 166 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 167 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 168 | 2% | 97% | |
| 169 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 170 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 171 | 2% | 93% | |
| 172 | 5% | 90% | |
| 173 | 3% | 86% | |
| 174 | 2% | 82% | |
| 175 | 4% | 80% | Majority |
| 176 | 5% | 77% | |
| 177 | 6% | 72% | |
| 178 | 6% | 66% | Median |
| 179 | 8% | 61% | |
| 180 | 5% | 53% | |
| 181 | 5% | 48% | |
| 182 | 4% | 43% | |
| 183 | 4% | 38% | |
| 184 | 6% | 34% | |
| 185 | 7% | 28% | |
| 186 | 4% | 21% | |
| 187 | 1.2% | 17% | |
| 188 | 3% | 16% | |
| 189 | 5% | 13% | |
| 190 | 3% | 8% | |
| 191 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 192 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 193 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 194 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 195 | 0.4% | 1.2% | Last Result |
| 196 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 156 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 157 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 158 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 159 | 3% | 95% | |
| 160 | 5% | 92% | |
| 161 | 3% | 87% | |
| 162 | 1.2% | 84% | |
| 163 | 4% | 83% | |
| 164 | 7% | 79% | |
| 165 | 6% | 72% | |
| 166 | 4% | 66% | |
| 167 | 4% | 62% | |
| 168 | 5% | 57% | |
| 169 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 170 | 8% | 47% | |
| 171 | 6% | 39% | |
| 172 | 6% | 34% | |
| 173 | 5% | 28% | |
| 174 | 4% | 23% | |
| 175 | 2% | 20% | Majority |
| 176 | 3% | 18% | |
| 177 | 5% | 14% | |
| 178 | 2% | 10% | |
| 179 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 180 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 181 | 2% | 6% | |
| 182 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 183 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 186 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 145 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 150 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 151 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 152 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 153 | 2% | 97% | |
| 154 | 3% | 95% | |
| 155 | 2% | 92% | |
| 156 | 2% | 91% | |
| 157 | 4% | 89% | |
| 158 | 4% | 85% | |
| 159 | 5% | 81% | |
| 160 | 5% | 76% | |
| 161 | 3% | 71% | |
| 162 | 5% | 68% | |
| 163 | 4% | 62% | |
| 164 | 3% | 58% | |
| 165 | 11% | 55% | Median |
| 166 | 6% | 44% | |
| 167 | 4% | 39% | |
| 168 | 5% | 35% | |
| 169 | 3% | 30% | |
| 170 | 3% | 27% | Last Result |
| 171 | 4% | 24% | |
| 172 | 5% | 20% | |
| 173 | 3% | 15% | |
| 174 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 175 | 3% | 11% | Majority |
| 176 | 3% | 8% | |
| 177 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 178 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 179 | 2% | 3% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 181 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 129 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 130 | 2% | 98% | |
| 131 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 132 | 2% | 95% | |
| 133 | 2% | 94% | |
| 134 | 3% | 92% | |
| 135 | 3% | 89% | |
| 136 | 3% | 85% | |
| 137 | 4% | 83% | |
| 138 | 3% | 79% | |
| 139 | 3% | 76% | |
| 140 | 3% | 73% | |
| 141 | 9% | 69% | |
| 142 | 4% | 61% | |
| 143 | 4% | 56% | |
| 144 | 5% | 52% | Last Result |
| 145 | 6% | 47% | |
| 146 | 3% | 41% | |
| 147 | 10% | 38% | |
| 148 | 3% | 28% | |
| 149 | 5% | 25% | Median |
| 150 | 2% | 21% | |
| 151 | 4% | 19% | |
| 152 | 2% | 15% | |
| 153 | 3% | 13% | |
| 154 | 2% | 10% | |
| 155 | 2% | 8% | |
| 156 | 2% | 5% | |
| 157 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 158 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 159 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 126 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 127 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 129 | 2% | 97% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 131 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 132 | 3% | 95% | |
| 133 | 1.5% | 91% | |
| 134 | 3% | 90% | |
| 135 | 4% | 87% | |
| 136 | 2% | 84% | |
| 137 | 2% | 82% | |
| 138 | 3% | 80% | |
| 139 | 6% | 76% | |
| 140 | 6% | 71% | |
| 141 | 2% | 65% | |
| 142 | 2% | 63% | Median |
| 143 | 7% | 60% | |
| 144 | 10% | 53% | |
| 145 | 4% | 43% | |
| 146 | 3% | 39% | |
| 147 | 5% | 37% | |
| 148 | 5% | 32% | |
| 149 | 4% | 27% | |
| 150 | 3% | 23% | |
| 151 | 2% | 20% | |
| 152 | 3% | 18% | |
| 153 | 8% | 15% | |
| 154 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 155 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 156 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 157 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 120 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 122 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 123 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 124 | 2% | 95% | |
| 125 | 2% | 93% | |
| 126 | 2% | 91% | |
| 127 | 2% | 89% | |
| 128 | 4% | 87% | Median |
| 129 | 3% | 83% | |
| 130 | 3% | 80% | |
| 131 | 5% | 77% | |
| 132 | 7% | 72% | |
| 133 | 6% | 65% | |
| 134 | 6% | 59% | |
| 135 | 4% | 53% | |
| 136 | 4% | 49% | |
| 137 | 8% | 45% | |
| 138 | 3% | 38% | |
| 139 | 5% | 35% | |
| 140 | 6% | 30% | |
| 141 | 4% | 25% | |
| 142 | 4% | 21% | |
| 143 | 2% | 17% | Last Result |
| 144 | 3% | 15% | |
| 145 | 2% | 12% | |
| 146 | 3% | 10% | |
| 147 | 2% | 7% | |
| 148 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 149 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 150 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 152 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 122 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 123 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 124 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 125 | 2% | 97% | |
| 126 | 5% | 95% | |
| 127 | 1.2% | 91% | |
| 128 | 2% | 90% | Last Result |
| 129 | 3% | 87% | |
| 130 | 5% | 84% | |
| 131 | 4% | 79% | |
| 132 | 9% | 75% | |
| 133 | 4% | 65% | |
| 134 | 6% | 61% | |
| 135 | 6% | 55% | Median |
| 136 | 7% | 49% | |
| 137 | 5% | 43% | |
| 138 | 5% | 38% | |
| 139 | 4% | 33% | |
| 140 | 4% | 29% | |
| 141 | 6% | 25% | |
| 142 | 3% | 19% | |
| 143 | 4% | 16% | |
| 144 | 3% | 12% | |
| 145 | 3% | 9% | |
| 146 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 147 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 148 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 149 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 150 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 122 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 123 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 124 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 125 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 126 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 127 | 2% | 95% | |
| 128 | 3% | 93% | |
| 129 | 7% | 90% | |
| 130 | 5% | 83% | |
| 131 | 4% | 78% | |
| 132 | 7% | 74% | Last Result |
| 133 | 3% | 68% | |
| 134 | 6% | 64% | |
| 135 | 8% | 58% | |
| 136 | 7% | 50% | Median |
| 137 | 3% | 43% | |
| 138 | 9% | 40% | |
| 139 | 9% | 31% | |
| 140 | 3% | 22% | |
| 141 | 3% | 19% | |
| 142 | 4% | 16% | |
| 143 | 3% | 13% | |
| 144 | 2% | 9% | |
| 145 | 3% | 8% | |
| 146 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 147 | 2% | 4% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 151 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 115 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 116 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 117 | 2% | 98% | |
| 118 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 119 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 120 | 4% | 94% | |
| 121 | 4% | 90% | |
| 122 | 3% | 86% | |
| 123 | 6% | 83% | Last Result |
| 124 | 7% | 78% | |
| 125 | 5% | 71% | |
| 126 | 6% | 66% | |
| 127 | 4% | 60% | |
| 128 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 129 | 4% | 50% | |
| 130 | 5% | 46% | |
| 131 | 6% | 40% | |
| 132 | 8% | 34% | |
| 133 | 5% | 26% | |
| 134 | 6% | 21% | |
| 135 | 4% | 16% | |
| 136 | 2% | 11% | |
| 137 | 4% | 9% | |
| 138 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 139 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 140 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 141 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 93 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 94 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 95 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 96 | 2% | 95% | |
| 97 | 3% | 93% | |
| 98 | 4% | 90% | |
| 99 | 3% | 86% | |
| 100 | 4% | 83% | |
| 101 | 3% | 79% | |
| 102 | 6% | 77% | |
| 103 | 4% | 71% | |
| 104 | 4% | 67% | |
| 105 | 3% | 63% | |
| 106 | 6% | 60% | |
| 107 | 6% | 55% | |
| 108 | 3% | 49% | |
| 109 | 8% | 46% | |
| 110 | 4% | 37% | |
| 111 | 5% | 34% | |
| 112 | 7% | 29% | |
| 113 | 2% | 22% | Median |
| 114 | 4% | 20% | |
| 115 | 3% | 16% | |
| 116 | 2% | 13% | Last Result |
| 117 | 3% | 11% | |
| 118 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 119 | 2% | 7% | |
| 120 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 121 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 123 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 87 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 88 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 89 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 90 | 2% | 97% | |
| 91 | 2% | 95% | |
| 92 | 4% | 93% | |
| 93 | 3% | 89% | |
| 94 | 3% | 86% | |
| 95 | 3% | 83% | Median |
| 96 | 4% | 80% | |
| 97 | 2% | 76% | |
| 98 | 7% | 74% | |
| 99 | 2% | 67% | |
| 100 | 8% | 65% | |
| 101 | 6% | 57% | |
| 102 | 4% | 51% | |
| 103 | 5% | 46% | |
| 104 | 2% | 42% | |
| 105 | 3% | 40% | |
| 106 | 5% | 37% | |
| 107 | 2% | 32% | |
| 108 | 8% | 30% | |
| 109 | 2% | 22% | |
| 110 | 4% | 20% | |
| 111 | 3% | 15% | |
| 112 | 3% | 12% | |
| 113 | 2% | 9% | |
| 114 | 2% | 8% | |
| 115 | 2% | 5% | |
| 116 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 117 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 118 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 85 | 0.8% | 98.7% | |
| 86 | 2% | 98% | |
| 87 | 3% | 96% | |
| 88 | 3% | 94% | |
| 89 | 3% | 91% | |
| 90 | 7% | 88% | |
| 91 | 3% | 82% | |
| 92 | 12% | 78% | |
| 93 | 6% | 67% | |
| 94 | 8% | 61% | |
| 95 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 96 | 7% | 47% | |
| 97 | 4% | 40% | |
| 98 | 9% | 37% | |
| 99 | 3% | 27% | |
| 100 | 8% | 24% | |
| 101 | 7% | 16% | Last Result |
| 102 | 3% | 10% | |
| 103 | 3% | 7% | |
| 104 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 105 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 108 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Dagens Nyheter
- Fieldwork period: 12–25 March 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1529
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.84%