Opinion Poll by Inizio for Aftonbladet, 23–28 March 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 26.5% | 25.5–27.6% | 25.2–27.9% | 25.0–28.1% | 24.5–28.6% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 18.2% | 17.3–19.2% | 17.1–19.4% | 16.9–19.7% | 16.5–20.1% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 16.5% | 15.7–17.4% | 15.4–17.7% | 15.2–17.9% | 14.8–18.3% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 12.1% | 11.4–12.9% | 11.2–13.1% | 11.0–13.3% | 10.6–13.7% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.4–9.8% | 8.3–10.0% | 8.1–10.2% | 7.8–10.5% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.0–9.3% | 7.8–9.5% | 7.7–9.7% | 7.4–10.0% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.7–4.7% | 3.6–4.9% | 3.5–5.0% | 3.3–5.2% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.9–3.7% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.5–4.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 97 | 93–102 | 92–104 | 91–105 | 89–107 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 67 | 64–71 | 63–72 | 62–73 | 60–75 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 61 | 57–64 | 56–65 | 56–67 | 54–68 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 45 | 42–47 | 41–49 | 40–49 | 39–51 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 34 | 31–36 | 30–37 | 30–38 | 29–39 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 32 | 29–35 | 29–35 | 28–36 | 27–37 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 16 | 0–17 | 0–18 | 0–18 | 0–19 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–15 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 90 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 91 | 1.2% | 98.6% | |
| 92 | 4% | 97% | |
| 93 | 5% | 94% | |
| 94 | 6% | 89% | |
| 95 | 10% | 83% | |
| 96 | 10% | 73% | |
| 97 | 13% | 63% | Median |
| 98 | 14% | 50% | |
| 99 | 10% | 35% | |
| 100 | 8% | 25% | Last Result |
| 101 | 5% | 17% | |
| 102 | 4% | 12% | |
| 103 | 3% | 8% | |
| 104 | 2% | 5% | |
| 105 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 106 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 63 | 5% | 96% | |
| 64 | 9% | 91% | |
| 65 | 11% | 83% | |
| 66 | 10% | 72% | |
| 67 | 19% | 62% | Median |
| 68 | 15% | 43% | |
| 69 | 8% | 28% | |
| 70 | 7% | 20% | |
| 71 | 5% | 12% | |
| 72 | 3% | 7% | |
| 73 | 2% | 4% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 56 | 4% | 98% | |
| 57 | 5% | 94% | |
| 58 | 10% | 89% | |
| 59 | 9% | 79% | |
| 60 | 13% | 70% | |
| 61 | 16% | 56% | Median |
| 62 | 17% | 41% | |
| 63 | 9% | 24% | |
| 64 | 6% | 15% | |
| 65 | 5% | 9% | |
| 66 | 2% | 5% | |
| 67 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 41 | 3% | 96% | |
| 42 | 9% | 93% | |
| 43 | 17% | 84% | |
| 44 | 15% | 67% | |
| 45 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 46 | 18% | 38% | |
| 47 | 11% | 20% | |
| 48 | 3% | 9% | |
| 49 | 4% | 6% | |
| 50 | 2% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 6% | 98% | |
| 31 | 12% | 92% | Last Result |
| 32 | 11% | 80% | |
| 33 | 11% | 69% | |
| 34 | 20% | 58% | Median |
| 35 | 17% | 37% | |
| 36 | 11% | 20% | |
| 37 | 7% | 9% | |
| 38 | 2% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 3% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 29 | 10% | 96% | |
| 30 | 13% | 87% | |
| 31 | 21% | 74% | |
| 32 | 16% | 53% | Median |
| 33 | 19% | 37% | |
| 34 | 8% | 18% | |
| 35 | 6% | 10% | |
| 36 | 2% | 4% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 81% | |
| 2 | 0% | 81% | |
| 3 | 0% | 81% | |
| 4 | 0% | 81% | |
| 5 | 0% | 81% | |
| 6 | 0% | 81% | |
| 7 | 0% | 81% | |
| 8 | 0% | 81% | |
| 9 | 0% | 81% | |
| 10 | 0% | 81% | |
| 11 | 0% | 81% | |
| 12 | 0% | 81% | |
| 13 | 0% | 81% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 81% | |
| 15 | 24% | 80% | |
| 16 | 32% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 17 | 19% | 25% | |
| 18 | 5% | 6% | |
| 19 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 192 | 100% | 186–199 | 185–202 | 184–203 | 181–206 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 177 | 70% | 170–181 | 167–183 | 166–184 | 163–187 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 172 | 30% | 168–179 | 166–182 | 165–183 | 162–186 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 158 | 0% | 153–164 | 152–166 | 151–169 | 148–171 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 146 | 0% | 136–150 | 134–151 | 133–153 | 130–155 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 143 | 0% | 134–148 | 132–149 | 130–150 | 127–152 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 143 | 139 | 0% | 135–145 | 133–148 | 132–149 | 130–155 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet | 123 | 138 | 0% | 134–145 | 133–147 | 132–148 | 129–151 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 129 | 0% | 125–135 | 123–136 | 123–139 | 120–141 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 127 | 0% | 123–134 | 122–136 | 121–137 | 119–139 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 112 | 0% | 101–116 | 99–118 | 98–118 | 95–120 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 95 | 0% | 90–100 | 89–101 | 88–103 | 86–110 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 94 | 0% | 90–99 | 89–100 | 88–102 | 86–104 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 177 | 0% | 100% | |
| 178 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 181 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 183 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 184 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 185 | 3% | 97% | |
| 186 | 5% | 94% | |
| 187 | 5% | 89% | |
| 188 | 8% | 84% | |
| 189 | 5% | 76% | |
| 190 | 13% | 71% | |
| 191 | 7% | 58% | |
| 192 | 12% | 51% | Median |
| 193 | 6% | 38% | |
| 194 | 5% | 32% | |
| 195 | 5% | 27% | |
| 196 | 5% | 22% | |
| 197 | 2% | 17% | |
| 198 | 4% | 15% | |
| 199 | 2% | 11% | |
| 200 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 201 | 3% | 8% | Last Result |
| 202 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 203 | 2% | 4% | |
| 204 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 205 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 206 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 164 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 165 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 166 | 2% | 98% | |
| 167 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 168 | 2% | 95% | |
| 169 | 2% | 93% | |
| 170 | 3% | 90% | |
| 171 | 2% | 87% | |
| 172 | 2% | 85% | |
| 173 | 6% | 82% | |
| 174 | 6% | 76% | |
| 175 | 6% | 70% | Majority |
| 176 | 7% | 64% | |
| 177 | 13% | 57% | |
| 178 | 9% | 44% | |
| 179 | 8% | 35% | Median |
| 180 | 12% | 27% | |
| 181 | 6% | 15% | |
| 182 | 3% | 9% | |
| 183 | 2% | 6% | |
| 184 | 2% | 4% | |
| 185 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 164 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 165 | 2% | 98% | |
| 166 | 2% | 96% | |
| 167 | 3% | 94% | |
| 168 | 6% | 91% | |
| 169 | 12% | 85% | |
| 170 | 8% | 73% | |
| 171 | 9% | 65% | |
| 172 | 13% | 56% | |
| 173 | 7% | 43% | Median |
| 174 | 6% | 36% | |
| 175 | 6% | 30% | Majority |
| 176 | 6% | 24% | |
| 177 | 2% | 18% | |
| 178 | 2% | 15% | |
| 179 | 3% | 13% | |
| 180 | 2% | 10% | |
| 181 | 2% | 7% | |
| 182 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 183 | 2% | 4% | |
| 184 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 185 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 148 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 149 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 150 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 151 | 3% | 98% | |
| 152 | 3% | 95% | |
| 153 | 4% | 93% | |
| 154 | 7% | 89% | |
| 155 | 11% | 82% | |
| 156 | 6% | 70% | |
| 157 | 8% | 65% | |
| 158 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 159 | 6% | 44% | |
| 160 | 10% | 38% | |
| 161 | 6% | 28% | |
| 162 | 5% | 22% | |
| 163 | 4% | 17% | |
| 164 | 4% | 13% | |
| 165 | 4% | 10% | |
| 166 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 167 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 168 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 169 | 2% | 3% | |
| 170 | 0.8% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 131 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 132 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 133 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 134 | 2% | 97% | |
| 135 | 2% | 95% | |
| 136 | 3% | 93% | |
| 137 | 2% | 90% | |
| 138 | 2% | 88% | |
| 139 | 2% | 86% | |
| 140 | 3% | 84% | |
| 141 | 3% | 81% | |
| 142 | 5% | 78% | |
| 143 | 6% | 74% | |
| 144 | 9% | 67% | |
| 145 | 8% | 59% | |
| 146 | 10% | 50% | |
| 147 | 11% | 40% | Median |
| 148 | 11% | 29% | |
| 149 | 6% | 18% | |
| 150 | 4% | 12% | |
| 151 | 3% | 8% | |
| 152 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 153 | 2% | 3% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 155 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 129 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 131 | 2% | 97% | |
| 132 | 2% | 96% | |
| 133 | 2% | 93% | |
| 134 | 3% | 92% | |
| 135 | 2% | 89% | |
| 136 | 3% | 87% | |
| 137 | 1.3% | 84% | |
| 138 | 3% | 83% | |
| 139 | 3% | 80% | |
| 140 | 6% | 77% | |
| 141 | 4% | 70% | |
| 142 | 3% | 66% | |
| 143 | 17% | 63% | |
| 144 | 6% | 47% | Last Result |
| 145 | 18% | 41% | Median |
| 146 | 2% | 23% | |
| 147 | 7% | 21% | |
| 148 | 6% | 14% | |
| 149 | 3% | 8% | |
| 150 | 3% | 5% | |
| 151 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 152 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 131 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 132 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 133 | 2% | 97% | |
| 134 | 4% | 95% | |
| 135 | 8% | 91% | |
| 136 | 4% | 83% | |
| 137 | 13% | 78% | |
| 138 | 15% | 65% | |
| 139 | 5% | 51% | |
| 140 | 10% | 46% | Median |
| 141 | 10% | 36% | |
| 142 | 4% | 26% | |
| 143 | 5% | 22% | Last Result |
| 144 | 4% | 17% | |
| 145 | 3% | 13% | |
| 146 | 3% | 10% | |
| 147 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 148 | 2% | 6% | |
| 149 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 150 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 151 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 153 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 130 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 131 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 132 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 133 | 3% | 96% | |
| 134 | 4% | 94% | |
| 135 | 8% | 90% | |
| 136 | 4% | 81% | |
| 137 | 13% | 77% | |
| 138 | 15% | 64% | |
| 139 | 5% | 49% | |
| 140 | 10% | 44% | Median |
| 141 | 10% | 34% | |
| 142 | 4% | 24% | |
| 143 | 5% | 20% | |
| 144 | 4% | 15% | |
| 145 | 3% | 11% | |
| 146 | 3% | 8% | |
| 147 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 148 | 2% | 4% | |
| 149 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 122 | 1.0% | 98.5% | |
| 123 | 4% | 98% | |
| 124 | 3% | 94% | |
| 125 | 5% | 90% | |
| 126 | 8% | 85% | |
| 127 | 10% | 77% | |
| 128 | 12% | 68% | Last Result |
| 129 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 130 | 8% | 43% | |
| 131 | 8% | 35% | |
| 132 | 7% | 27% | |
| 133 | 4% | 20% | |
| 134 | 6% | 16% | |
| 135 | 2% | 10% | |
| 136 | 3% | 8% | |
| 137 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 138 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 139 | 2% | 3% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 120 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 121 | 2% | 98% | |
| 122 | 2% | 96% | |
| 123 | 4% | 93% | |
| 124 | 4% | 89% | |
| 125 | 13% | 85% | |
| 126 | 13% | 72% | |
| 127 | 9% | 59% | |
| 128 | 8% | 50% | Median |
| 129 | 7% | 41% | |
| 130 | 10% | 35% | |
| 131 | 7% | 24% | |
| 132 | 5% | 18% | Last Result |
| 133 | 2% | 13% | |
| 134 | 3% | 10% | |
| 135 | 2% | 8% | |
| 136 | 2% | 5% | |
| 137 | 2% | 3% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 98.6% | |
| 98 | 2% | 98% | |
| 99 | 3% | 96% | |
| 100 | 2% | 93% | |
| 101 | 3% | 91% | |
| 102 | 2% | 89% | |
| 103 | 2% | 87% | |
| 104 | 2% | 85% | |
| 105 | 1.3% | 83% | |
| 106 | 2% | 82% | |
| 107 | 2% | 80% | |
| 108 | 3% | 78% | |
| 109 | 4% | 74% | |
| 110 | 8% | 71% | |
| 111 | 5% | 63% | |
| 112 | 13% | 58% | |
| 113 | 12% | 45% | Median |
| 114 | 12% | 33% | |
| 115 | 8% | 21% | |
| 116 | 5% | 13% | Last Result |
| 117 | 3% | 8% | |
| 118 | 3% | 5% | |
| 119 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 87 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 88 | 2% | 98% | |
| 89 | 4% | 97% | |
| 90 | 6% | 93% | |
| 91 | 5% | 87% | |
| 92 | 8% | 82% | |
| 93 | 14% | 74% | |
| 94 | 9% | 60% | |
| 95 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 96 | 10% | 40% | |
| 97 | 9% | 30% | |
| 98 | 7% | 21% | |
| 99 | 4% | 14% | |
| 100 | 3% | 10% | |
| 101 | 2% | 7% | |
| 102 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 103 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 87 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 88 | 2% | 98% | |
| 89 | 4% | 96% | |
| 90 | 6% | 92% | |
| 91 | 5% | 86% | |
| 92 | 8% | 81% | |
| 93 | 15% | 73% | |
| 94 | 9% | 59% | |
| 95 | 12% | 49% | Median |
| 96 | 10% | 38% | |
| 97 | 9% | 28% | |
| 98 | 7% | 19% | |
| 99 | 4% | 12% | |
| 100 | 3% | 8% | |
| 101 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 102 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 103 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Inizio
- Commissioner(s): Aftonbladet
- Fieldwork period: 23–28 March 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2980
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.94%