Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 4–31 March 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 27.2% | 26.3–28.2% | 26.0–28.4% | 25.8–28.7% | 25.3–29.1% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 18.1% | 17.3–18.9% | 17.1–19.2% | 16.9–19.4% | 16.5–19.8% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 17.5% | 16.7–18.3% | 16.5–18.6% | 16.3–18.8% | 15.9–19.2% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 10.6% | 10.0–11.3% | 9.8–11.5% | 9.6–11.6% | 9.3–12.0% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 9.7% | 9.1–10.4% | 8.9–10.5% | 8.8–10.7% | 8.5–11.0% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.7–8.8% | 7.5–9.0% | 7.4–9.1% | 7.1–9.4% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.3–4.1% | 3.2–4.3% | 3.1–4.4% | 3.0–4.6% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.1–3.9% | 3.0–4.0% | 2.9–4.1% | 2.8–4.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 102 | 98–107 | 97–108 | 96–109 | 93–110 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 69 | 65–72 | 64–73 | 63–74 | 61–75 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 66 | 63–70 | 62–71 | 61–72 | 59–73 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 40 | 37–43 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 35–45 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 36 | 34–39 | 34–40 | 33–41 | 31–42 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 31 | 29–33 | 28–34 | 27–35 | 26–36 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–16 | 0–16 | 0–17 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–15 | 0–16 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 95 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 96 | 2% | 98% | |
| 97 | 3% | 96% | |
| 98 | 6% | 93% | |
| 99 | 5% | 87% | |
| 100 | 6% | 82% | Last Result |
| 101 | 20% | 76% | |
| 102 | 7% | 56% | Median |
| 103 | 9% | 49% | |
| 104 | 10% | 40% | |
| 105 | 11% | 30% | |
| 106 | 6% | 19% | |
| 107 | 4% | 13% | |
| 108 | 3% | 8% | |
| 109 | 3% | 5% | |
| 110 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 1.3% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 63 | 3% | 98% | |
| 64 | 4% | 95% | |
| 65 | 6% | 91% | |
| 66 | 8% | 85% | |
| 67 | 11% | 77% | |
| 68 | 12% | 66% | |
| 69 | 16% | 54% | Median |
| 70 | 13% | 38% | |
| 71 | 9% | 24% | |
| 72 | 7% | 15% | |
| 73 | 5% | 9% | |
| 74 | 3% | 4% | |
| 75 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 5% | 96% | |
| 63 | 11% | 91% | |
| 64 | 12% | 80% | |
| 65 | 13% | 67% | |
| 66 | 11% | 54% | Median |
| 67 | 10% | 44% | |
| 68 | 7% | 34% | |
| 69 | 12% | 26% | |
| 70 | 8% | 15% | Last Result |
| 71 | 3% | 6% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 37 | 10% | 96% | |
| 38 | 11% | 86% | |
| 39 | 11% | 75% | |
| 40 | 19% | 64% | Median |
| 41 | 15% | 45% | |
| 42 | 15% | 30% | |
| 43 | 10% | 15% | |
| 44 | 3% | 5% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 1.5% | 99.4% | |
| 33 | 2% | 98% | |
| 34 | 13% | 96% | |
| 35 | 12% | 82% | |
| 36 | 21% | 70% | Median |
| 37 | 18% | 49% | |
| 38 | 13% | 31% | |
| 39 | 11% | 18% | |
| 40 | 4% | 6% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 28 | 6% | 97% | |
| 29 | 11% | 91% | |
| 30 | 20% | 79% | |
| 31 | 25% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 32 | 17% | 35% | |
| 33 | 9% | 17% | |
| 34 | 4% | 8% | |
| 35 | 3% | 4% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 80% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 20% | |
| 2 | 0% | 20% | |
| 3 | 0% | 20% | |
| 4 | 0% | 20% | |
| 5 | 0% | 20% | |
| 6 | 0% | 20% | |
| 7 | 0% | 20% | |
| 8 | 0% | 20% | |
| 9 | 0% | 20% | |
| 10 | 0% | 20% | |
| 11 | 0% | 20% | |
| 12 | 0% | 20% | |
| 13 | 0% | 20% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 20% | |
| 15 | 13% | 19% | |
| 16 | 5% | 6% | |
| 17 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 7% | |
| 10 | 0% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 7% | |
| 12 | 0% | 7% | |
| 13 | 0% | 7% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 15 | 5% | 7% | |
| 16 | 1.3% | 1.5% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 200 | 100% | 192–206 | 190–207 | 189–208 | 186–209 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 195 | 173 | 42% | 168–182 | 167–184 | 167–185 | 166–187 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 176 | 58% | 167–181 | 165–182 | 164–182 | 162–183 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 169 | 10% | 162–174 | 160–176 | 159–176 | 156–178 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 143 | 139 | 0% | 135–147 | 133–149 | 132–151 | 129–154 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 140 | 0% | 135–146 | 133–148 | 132–150 | 129–154 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 167 | 136 | 0% | 131–145 | 130–148 | 129–149 | 128–155 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 139 | 0% | 134–144 | 132–146 | 130–146 | 127–149 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet | 123 | 138 | 0% | 131–142 | 130–144 | 129–145 | 126–146 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 135 | 0% | 129–140 | 127–141 | 126–142 | 124–143 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 103 | 0% | 99–109 | 98–113 | 96–114 | 93–117 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 99 | 0% | 94–109 | 93–111 | 92–112 | 90–115 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 97 | 0% | 93–101 | 91–102 | 90–103 | 88–105 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 180 | 0% | 100% | |
| 181 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 188 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 189 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 190 | 2% | 97% | |
| 191 | 3% | 94% | |
| 192 | 3% | 92% | |
| 193 | 3% | 88% | |
| 194 | 3% | 85% | |
| 195 | 4% | 82% | |
| 196 | 5% | 79% | |
| 197 | 4% | 74% | |
| 198 | 4% | 70% | |
| 199 | 11% | 66% | Median |
| 200 | 6% | 55% | |
| 201 | 11% | 48% | Last Result |
| 202 | 7% | 38% | |
| 203 | 6% | 31% | |
| 204 | 8% | 25% | |
| 205 | 5% | 17% | |
| 206 | 6% | 11% | |
| 207 | 3% | 6% | |
| 208 | 2% | 3% | |
| 209 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 210 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 166 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 167 | 3% | 98% | |
| 168 | 8% | 95% | |
| 169 | 6% | 87% | Median |
| 170 | 12% | 81% | |
| 171 | 7% | 70% | |
| 172 | 10% | 63% | |
| 173 | 4% | 52% | |
| 174 | 6% | 49% | |
| 175 | 5% | 42% | Majority |
| 176 | 5% | 38% | |
| 177 | 6% | 33% | |
| 178 | 6% | 27% | |
| 179 | 5% | 20% | |
| 180 | 4% | 16% | |
| 181 | 2% | 12% | |
| 182 | 2% | 10% | |
| 183 | 2% | 8% | |
| 184 | 2% | 6% | |
| 185 | 2% | 4% | |
| 186 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 162 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 163 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 164 | 2% | 98% | |
| 165 | 2% | 96% | |
| 166 | 2% | 94% | |
| 167 | 2% | 92% | |
| 168 | 2% | 90% | |
| 169 | 4% | 88% | |
| 170 | 5% | 84% | |
| 171 | 6% | 80% | |
| 172 | 6% | 73% | |
| 173 | 5% | 67% | |
| 174 | 5% | 62% | |
| 175 | 6% | 58% | Median, Majority |
| 176 | 4% | 51% | |
| 177 | 10% | 48% | |
| 178 | 7% | 37% | |
| 179 | 12% | 30% | |
| 180 | 6% | 19% | |
| 181 | 8% | 13% | |
| 182 | 3% | 5% | |
| 183 | 2% | 2% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 157 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 159 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 160 | 3% | 97% | |
| 161 | 4% | 95% | |
| 162 | 3% | 90% | |
| 163 | 3% | 87% | |
| 164 | 3% | 85% | |
| 165 | 5% | 82% | |
| 166 | 8% | 77% | |
| 167 | 5% | 69% | |
| 168 | 7% | 64% | Median |
| 169 | 11% | 57% | |
| 170 | 9% | 46% | Last Result |
| 171 | 9% | 37% | |
| 172 | 5% | 28% | |
| 173 | 8% | 23% | |
| 174 | 5% | 15% | |
| 175 | 4% | 10% | Majority |
| 176 | 3% | 6% | |
| 177 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 178 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 130 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 131 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 132 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 133 | 2% | 96% | |
| 134 | 4% | 94% | |
| 135 | 5% | 91% | |
| 136 | 8% | 86% | |
| 137 | 7% | 78% | Median |
| 138 | 9% | 71% | |
| 139 | 12% | 62% | |
| 140 | 9% | 50% | |
| 141 | 6% | 41% | |
| 142 | 8% | 35% | |
| 143 | 3% | 27% | Last Result |
| 144 | 4% | 24% | |
| 145 | 3% | 20% | |
| 146 | 5% | 17% | |
| 147 | 2% | 12% | |
| 148 | 3% | 10% | |
| 149 | 3% | 7% | |
| 150 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 151 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 152 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 130 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 131 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 132 | 3% | 98% | |
| 133 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 134 | 4% | 94% | |
| 135 | 4% | 91% | |
| 136 | 4% | 86% | |
| 137 | 11% | 82% | |
| 138 | 6% | 71% | Median |
| 139 | 9% | 65% | |
| 140 | 9% | 56% | |
| 141 | 11% | 46% | |
| 142 | 9% | 35% | |
| 143 | 6% | 26% | |
| 144 | 4% | 20% | Last Result |
| 145 | 5% | 16% | |
| 146 | 3% | 11% | |
| 147 | 3% | 9% | |
| 148 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 149 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 150 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 151 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 153 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 130 | 2% | 97% | |
| 131 | 6% | 95% | |
| 132 | 9% | 89% | |
| 133 | 6% | 80% | Median |
| 134 | 10% | 74% | |
| 135 | 9% | 64% | |
| 136 | 6% | 56% | |
| 137 | 7% | 50% | |
| 138 | 6% | 42% | |
| 139 | 4% | 37% | |
| 140 | 5% | 33% | |
| 141 | 3% | 28% | |
| 142 | 2% | 25% | |
| 143 | 4% | 22% | |
| 144 | 3% | 18% | |
| 145 | 6% | 15% | |
| 146 | 2% | 10% | |
| 147 | 2% | 8% | |
| 148 | 3% | 6% | |
| 149 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 150 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 155 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 129 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 130 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 131 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 132 | 5% | 96% | |
| 133 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 134 | 5% | 90% | |
| 135 | 5% | 85% | |
| 136 | 4% | 80% | |
| 137 | 11% | 76% | |
| 138 | 7% | 65% | Median |
| 139 | 9% | 58% | |
| 140 | 9% | 49% | |
| 141 | 11% | 39% | |
| 142 | 9% | 28% | |
| 143 | 6% | 19% | |
| 144 | 4% | 14% | |
| 145 | 4% | 10% | |
| 146 | 3% | 5% | |
| 147 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 149 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 127 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 128 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 129 | 2% | 98% | |
| 130 | 2% | 96% | |
| 131 | 5% | 94% | |
| 132 | 3% | 88% | |
| 133 | 5% | 85% | |
| 134 | 5% | 80% | |
| 135 | 6% | 75% | |
| 136 | 9% | 68% | |
| 137 | 8% | 60% | Median |
| 138 | 9% | 52% | |
| 139 | 13% | 43% | |
| 140 | 9% | 30% | |
| 141 | 6% | 21% | |
| 142 | 8% | 16% | |
| 143 | 3% | 8% | |
| 144 | 2% | 5% | |
| 145 | 2% | 3% | |
| 146 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 119 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 124 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 125 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 126 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 127 | 3% | 96% | |
| 128 | 2% | 93% | |
| 129 | 4% | 91% | |
| 130 | 3% | 87% | |
| 131 | 8% | 84% | |
| 132 | 7% | 76% | Last Result |
| 133 | 7% | 70% | |
| 134 | 9% | 63% | |
| 135 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 136 | 6% | 46% | |
| 137 | 10% | 40% | |
| 138 | 7% | 29% | |
| 139 | 10% | 22% | |
| 140 | 6% | 13% | |
| 141 | 3% | 6% | |
| 142 | 3% | 4% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 96 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 97 | 2% | 97% | |
| 98 | 4% | 95% | |
| 99 | 4% | 91% | |
| 100 | 6% | 88% | |
| 101 | 20% | 82% | |
| 102 | 6% | 62% | Median |
| 103 | 9% | 56% | |
| 104 | 10% | 47% | |
| 105 | 11% | 37% | |
| 106 | 6% | 26% | |
| 107 | 4% | 20% | |
| 108 | 4% | 16% | |
| 109 | 3% | 12% | |
| 110 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 112 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 113 | 3% | 6% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.8% | 2% | Last Result |
| 117 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 91 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 92 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 93 | 3% | 97% | |
| 94 | 6% | 94% | |
| 95 | 7% | 89% | |
| 96 | 9% | 82% | |
| 97 | 7% | 73% | Median |
| 98 | 11% | 66% | |
| 99 | 11% | 55% | |
| 100 | 9% | 44% | |
| 101 | 7% | 35% | |
| 102 | 4% | 28% | |
| 103 | 2% | 24% | |
| 104 | 2% | 22% | |
| 105 | 1.4% | 20% | |
| 106 | 1.1% | 18% | |
| 107 | 1.2% | 17% | |
| 108 | 5% | 16% | |
| 109 | 4% | 11% | |
| 110 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 111 | 2% | 6% | |
| 112 | 2% | 4% | |
| 113 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 90 | 2% | 98% | |
| 91 | 2% | 97% | |
| 92 | 2% | 95% | |
| 93 | 7% | 92% | |
| 94 | 9% | 85% | |
| 95 | 8% | 75% | |
| 96 | 11% | 67% | |
| 97 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 98 | 12% | 48% | |
| 99 | 11% | 36% | |
| 100 | 10% | 25% | |
| 101 | 7% | 15% | Last Result |
| 102 | 4% | 8% | |
| 103 | 2% | 5% | |
| 104 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 4–31 March 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 3668
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.10%