Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 1–11 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 27.3% 26.7–27.9% 26.5–28.1% 26.4–28.3% 26.0–28.6%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 18.9% 18.4–19.5% 18.2–19.6% 18.1–19.8% 17.8–20.0%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 16.0% 15.5–16.5% 15.3–16.7% 15.2–16.8% 15.0–17.1%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 12.2% 11.8–12.7% 11.6–12.8% 11.5–12.9% 11.3–13.2%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 8.7% 8.3–9.1% 8.2–9.2% 8.1–9.3% 7.9–9.5%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 7.5% 7.1–7.9% 7.0–8.0% 7.0–8.1% 6.8–8.3%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 4.6% 4.3–4.9% 4.2–5.0% 4.2–5.1% 4.0–5.2%
Liberalerna 5.5% 3.4% 3.1–3.7% 3.1–3.7% 3.0–3.8% 2.9–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 100 98–102 97–103 97–104 95–105
Sverigedemokraterna 62 69 67–71 66–72 66–72 65–74
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 59 57–60 56–61 56–62 55–63
Kristdemokraterna 22 45 43–46 43–47 42–47 41–48
Vänsterpartiet 28 32 30–33 30–34 30–34 29–35
Centerpartiet 31 28 26–29 26–29 25–30 25–30
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 17 16–18 15–18 15–19 15–19
Liberalerna 20 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.4% 99.9%  
96 2% 99.5%  
97 5% 98%  
98 12% 93%  
99 20% 81%  
100 21% 61% Last Result, Median
101 20% 40%  
102 11% 19%  
103 6% 9%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.9% 1.1%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.7% 99.9%  
66 4% 99.2%  
67 7% 95%  
68 16% 88%  
69 30% 73% Median
70 19% 42%  
71 13% 23%  
72 8% 10%  
73 2% 2%  
74 0.4% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 2% 99.8%  
56 6% 98%  
57 14% 92%  
58 27% 78%  
59 25% 51% Median
60 17% 26%  
61 7% 9%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.6% 0.7%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.9%  
42 3% 99.3%  
43 13% 96%  
44 22% 83%  
45 33% 61% Median
46 19% 28%  
47 7% 9%  
48 1.4% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.3%  
50 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100% Last Result
29 1.2% 99.9%  
30 10% 98.7%  
31 27% 89%  
32 31% 62% Median
33 23% 31%  
34 6% 8%  
35 1.2% 1.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 3% 99.8%  
26 16% 97%  
27 28% 81%  
28 32% 53% Median
29 18% 21%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
32 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 0% 99.7%  
7 0% 99.7%  
8 0% 99.7%  
9 0% 99.7%  
10 0% 99.7%  
11 0% 99.7%  
12 0% 99.7%  
13 0% 99.7%  
14 0% 99.7%  
15 7% 99.7%  
16 27% 93% Last Result
17 42% 66% Median
18 21% 24%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0% 0.2%  
8 0% 0.2%  
9 0% 0.2%  
10 0% 0.2%  
11 0% 0.2%  
12 0% 0.2%  
13 0% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 186 100% 183–189 183–190 182–190 181–192
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 195 176 84% 174–179 173–180 173–180 171–182
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna 154 173 16% 170–175 169–176 169–176 167–178
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 159 0% 156–161 155–162 155–163 153–164
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 149 0% 147–151 146–152 145–153 143–154
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 167 144 0% 142–147 141–148 141–148 139–150
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 132 0% 130–134 129–135 128–136 127–138
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 143 131 0% 129–133 127–134 127–135 126–137
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet 123 131 0% 129–133 127–134 127–135 126–137
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 132 128 0% 126–130 125–131 124–132 123–133
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 117 0% 114–119 114–120 113–121 112–122
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 86 0% 84–88 83–89 83–90 82–91
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 86 0% 84–88 83–89 83–90 82–91

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0.3% 99.8%  
181 0.6% 99.6%  
182 2% 98.9%  
183 7% 97%  
184 12% 90%  
185 13% 78%  
186 25% 65%  
187 16% 41% Median
188 10% 24%  
189 9% 14%  
190 4% 5%  
191 0.9% 2%  
192 0.7% 1.0%  
193 0.1% 0.3%  
194 0% 0.2%  
195 0% 0.2%  
196 0.1% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
166 0% 100%  
167 0.1% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.8%  
169 0% 99.8%  
170 0.1% 99.7%  
171 0.7% 99.6%  
172 1.2% 98.9%  
173 4% 98%  
174 9% 93%  
175 21% 84% Majority
176 18% 63%  
177 18% 45% Median
178 14% 27%  
179 7% 13%  
180 4% 6%  
181 1.1% 2%  
182 0.5% 0.8%  
183 0.1% 0.2%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100% Last Result
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.5% 99.8%  
168 1.1% 99.2%  
169 4% 98%  
170 7% 94%  
171 14% 87%  
172 18% 73%  
173 18% 55% Median
174 21% 37%  
175 9% 16% Majority
176 4% 7%  
177 1.2% 2%  
178 0.7% 1.1%  
179 0.1% 0.4%  
180 0% 0.3%  
181 0% 0.2%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.4% 99.8%  
154 1.3% 99.4%  
155 6% 98%  
156 7% 92%  
157 15% 85%  
158 16% 70%  
159 22% 54% Median
160 16% 32%  
161 9% 16%  
162 4% 8%  
163 3% 4%  
164 0.7% 1.0%  
165 0.1% 0.4%  
166 0.1% 0.2%  
167 0.1% 0.2%  
168 0.1% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.8%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0.1% 99.7%  
143 0.2% 99.6%  
144 1.1% 99.4% Last Result
145 2% 98%  
146 6% 96%  
147 14% 91%  
148 24% 77%  
149 23% 53% Median
150 13% 30%  
151 9% 17%  
152 5% 8%  
153 3% 4%  
154 0.6% 1.0%  
155 0.3% 0.4%  
156 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100%  
133 0.1% 99.9%  
134 0.1% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.8%  
136 0% 99.8%  
137 0% 99.7%  
138 0.1% 99.7%  
139 0.5% 99.6%  
140 2% 99.1%  
141 4% 98%  
142 12% 93%  
143 13% 82%  
144 20% 69%  
145 21% 48% Median
146 10% 28%  
147 11% 17%  
148 4% 6%  
149 1.0% 2%  
150 0.7% 0.9%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0% 100%  
126 0.3% 99.9%  
127 0.8% 99.6%  
128 2% 98.8% Last Result
129 3% 97%  
130 12% 94%  
131 24% 82%  
132 27% 58% Median
133 14% 31%  
134 6% 16%  
135 6% 10%  
136 3% 4%  
137 0.9% 1.4%  
138 0.4% 0.5%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0.3% 100%  
126 1.4% 99.7%  
127 3% 98%  
128 4% 95%  
129 14% 91%  
130 13% 77%  
131 26% 64%  
132 20% 38% Median
133 12% 18%  
134 4% 6%  
135 2% 3%  
136 0.4% 1.1%  
137 0.4% 0.7%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100% Last Result
124 0.1% 100%  
125 0.3% 99.9%  
126 1.4% 99.6%  
127 3% 98%  
128 4% 95%  
129 14% 91%  
130 13% 77%  
131 26% 64%  
132 20% 37% Median
133 12% 18%  
134 4% 6%  
135 2% 3%  
136 0.4% 0.9%  
137 0.4% 0.5%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0.2% 99.9%  
123 1.0% 99.7%  
124 2% 98.7%  
125 6% 96%  
126 14% 90%  
127 19% 76%  
128 16% 57% Median
129 21% 40%  
130 11% 20%  
131 5% 9%  
132 2% 3% Last Result
133 0.6% 0.9%  
134 0.2% 0.4%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0.1% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.8%  
107 0% 99.8%  
108 0% 99.8%  
109 0% 99.7%  
110 0% 99.7%  
111 0.1% 99.7%  
112 0.6% 99.5%  
113 2% 99.0%  
114 7% 97%  
115 14% 90%  
116 20% 76% Last Result
117 16% 56% Median
118 22% 40%  
119 10% 18%  
120 6% 8%  
121 2% 3%  
122 0.6% 0.7%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.3% 99.9%  
82 1.3% 99.7%  
83 5% 98%  
84 13% 94%  
85 12% 81%  
86 27% 69%  
87 25% 42% Median
88 9% 17%  
89 5% 8%  
90 3% 3%  
91 0.5% 0.8%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.3% 99.9%  
82 1.4% 99.6%  
83 5% 98%  
84 13% 94%  
85 12% 81%  
86 27% 69%  
87 25% 42% Median
88 9% 17%  
89 5% 8%  
90 3% 3%  
91 0.5% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.2%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations