Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 9–22 April 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 27.3% | 25.8–28.8% | 25.4–29.2% | 25.0–29.6% | 24.4–30.3% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 17.2% | 16.0–18.5% | 15.6–18.8% | 15.3–19.2% | 14.8–19.8% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 16.2% | 15.0–17.4% | 14.6–17.8% | 14.4–18.1% | 13.8–18.7% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 12.1% | 11.1–13.3% | 10.8–13.6% | 10.5–13.9% | 10.1–14.4% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 10.1% | 9.1–11.2% | 8.9–11.5% | 8.7–11.7% | 8.2–12.3% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.2–9.1% | 7.0–9.3% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.4–10.1% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.5% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 98 | 92–105 | 91–106 | 90–108 | 88–113 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 63 | 58–68 | 57–69 | 56–71 | 53–73 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 59 | 54–64 | 53–66 | 51–67 | 49–70 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 44 | 40–49 | 39–50 | 38–52 | 36–54 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 37 | 34–41 | 32–42 | 31–43 | 30–46 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 30 | 26–33 | 25–35 | 24–36 | 23–37 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 14 | 0–17 | 0–17 | 0–18 | 0–20 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 15 | 0–17 | 0–18 | 0–19 | 0–20 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 88 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 89 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 90 | 2% | 98% | |
| 91 | 3% | 96% | |
| 92 | 5% | 94% | |
| 93 | 6% | 88% | |
| 94 | 5% | 83% | |
| 95 | 9% | 78% | |
| 96 | 6% | 69% | |
| 97 | 6% | 62% | |
| 98 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 99 | 5% | 46% | |
| 100 | 7% | 41% | Last Result |
| 101 | 6% | 34% | |
| 102 | 3% | 28% | |
| 103 | 4% | 25% | |
| 104 | 7% | 21% | |
| 105 | 6% | 14% | |
| 106 | 4% | 8% | |
| 107 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 108 | 2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 56 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 57 | 2% | 97% | |
| 58 | 5% | 94% | |
| 59 | 6% | 89% | |
| 60 | 8% | 83% | |
| 61 | 9% | 75% | |
| 62 | 8% | 66% | Last Result |
| 63 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 64 | 10% | 46% | |
| 65 | 9% | 37% | |
| 66 | 9% | 28% | |
| 67 | 6% | 19% | |
| 68 | 5% | 13% | |
| 69 | 4% | 8% | |
| 70 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 71 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 51 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 52 | 2% | 97% | |
| 53 | 3% | 95% | |
| 54 | 3% | 92% | |
| 55 | 9% | 90% | |
| 56 | 12% | 80% | |
| 57 | 8% | 68% | |
| 58 | 8% | 60% | |
| 59 | 7% | 52% | Median |
| 60 | 15% | 45% | |
| 61 | 5% | 30% | |
| 62 | 6% | 24% | |
| 63 | 4% | 18% | |
| 64 | 5% | 14% | |
| 65 | 3% | 10% | |
| 66 | 2% | 7% | |
| 67 | 3% | 4% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98% | |
| 39 | 3% | 97% | |
| 40 | 4% | 94% | |
| 41 | 7% | 89% | |
| 42 | 10% | 82% | |
| 43 | 12% | 72% | |
| 44 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 45 | 11% | 48% | |
| 46 | 11% | 37% | |
| 47 | 7% | 26% | |
| 48 | 6% | 20% | |
| 49 | 7% | 13% | |
| 50 | 2% | 6% | |
| 51 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 52 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 31 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 32 | 4% | 97% | |
| 33 | 3% | 93% | |
| 34 | 7% | 91% | |
| 35 | 15% | 84% | |
| 36 | 10% | 69% | |
| 37 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 38 | 12% | 45% | |
| 39 | 11% | 33% | |
| 40 | 8% | 22% | |
| 41 | 6% | 14% | |
| 42 | 4% | 8% | |
| 43 | 3% | 5% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 25 | 3% | 97% | |
| 26 | 6% | 94% | |
| 27 | 11% | 88% | |
| 28 | 13% | 77% | |
| 29 | 13% | 64% | |
| 30 | 14% | 52% | Median |
| 31 | 13% | 38% | Last Result |
| 32 | 9% | 25% | |
| 33 | 7% | 16% | |
| 34 | 5% | 10% | |
| 35 | 2% | 5% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 49% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 51% | |
| 2 | 0% | 51% | |
| 3 | 0% | 51% | |
| 4 | 0% | 51% | |
| 5 | 0% | 51% | |
| 6 | 0% | 51% | |
| 7 | 0% | 51% | |
| 8 | 0% | 51% | |
| 9 | 0% | 51% | |
| 10 | 0% | 51% | |
| 11 | 0% | 51% | |
| 12 | 0% | 51% | |
| 13 | 0% | 51% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 51% | Median |
| 15 | 25% | 50% | |
| 16 | 9% | 24% | |
| 17 | 10% | 15% | |
| 18 | 3% | 5% | |
| 19 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 45% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 55% | |
| 2 | 0% | 55% | |
| 3 | 0% | 55% | |
| 4 | 0% | 55% | |
| 5 | 0% | 55% | |
| 6 | 0% | 55% | |
| 7 | 0% | 55% | |
| 8 | 0% | 55% | |
| 9 | 0% | 55% | |
| 10 | 0% | 55% | |
| 11 | 0% | 55% | |
| 12 | 0% | 55% | |
| 13 | 0% | 55% | |
| 14 | 5% | 55% | |
| 15 | 15% | 50% | Median |
| 16 | 17% | 36% | Last Result |
| 17 | 12% | 19% | |
| 18 | 4% | 7% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 187 | 96% | 177–198 | 175–201 | 173–202 | 171–205 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 195 | 182 | 88% | 174–191 | 172–193 | 170–195 | 165–198 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 167 | 12% | 158–175 | 156–177 | 154–179 | 151–184 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 157 | 0.6% | 149–166 | 147–170 | 145–172 | 143–175 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 145 | 0% | 135–155 | 132–157 | 131–159 | 127–161 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 167 | 145 | 0% | 136–155 | 134–157 | 132–158 | 128–164 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 143 | 142 | 0% | 130–151 | 128–153 | 127–155 | 124–159 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 135 | 0% | 128–144 | 126–146 | 125–148 | 121–153 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet | 123 | 133 | 0% | 126–142 | 123–143 | 122–145 | 119–149 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 122 | 0% | 115–130 | 114–131 | 112–133 | 108–138 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 107 | 0% | 97–117 | 95–120 | 94–120 | 92–123 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 97 | 0% | 86–107 | 85–109 | 83–111 | 81–114 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 88 | 0% | 82–95 | 81–98 | 80–99 | 77–102 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 168 | 0% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 172 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 173 | 1.5% | 98.8% | |
| 174 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 175 | 2% | 96% | Majority |
| 176 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 177 | 4% | 93% | |
| 178 | 3% | 89% | |
| 179 | 5% | 86% | |
| 180 | 4% | 81% | |
| 181 | 3% | 77% | |
| 182 | 3% | 74% | |
| 183 | 4% | 72% | |
| 184 | 4% | 67% | |
| 185 | 4% | 63% | |
| 186 | 6% | 60% | |
| 187 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 188 | 8% | 45% | |
| 189 | 3% | 38% | |
| 190 | 5% | 35% | |
| 191 | 3% | 30% | |
| 192 | 2% | 27% | |
| 193 | 4% | 25% | |
| 194 | 2% | 21% | |
| 195 | 2% | 19% | |
| 196 | 3% | 17% | |
| 197 | 3% | 14% | |
| 198 | 4% | 11% | |
| 199 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 200 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 201 | 1.2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 202 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 203 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 204 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 205 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 169 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 170 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 171 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 172 | 2% | 96% | |
| 173 | 2% | 94% | |
| 174 | 4% | 92% | |
| 175 | 4% | 88% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 84% | |
| 177 | 6% | 82% | |
| 178 | 5% | 77% | |
| 179 | 4% | 72% | |
| 180 | 8% | 68% | |
| 181 | 5% | 60% | |
| 182 | 5% | 54% | |
| 183 | 5% | 50% | |
| 184 | 7% | 45% | |
| 185 | 6% | 38% | |
| 186 | 4% | 32% | |
| 187 | 4% | 28% | |
| 188 | 5% | 24% | |
| 189 | 6% | 20% | |
| 190 | 3% | 14% | |
| 191 | 3% | 11% | |
| 192 | 3% | 8% | |
| 193 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 194 | 0.5% | 4% | Median |
| 195 | 1.0% | 3% | Last Result |
| 196 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 197 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 198 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 152 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 154 | 1.0% | 98% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 156 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 157 | 3% | 95% | |
| 158 | 3% | 92% | |
| 159 | 3% | 89% | |
| 160 | 6% | 86% | |
| 161 | 5% | 80% | |
| 162 | 4% | 76% | |
| 163 | 4% | 72% | |
| 164 | 6% | 68% | |
| 165 | 7% | 62% | |
| 166 | 5% | 55% | Median |
| 167 | 5% | 50% | |
| 168 | 5% | 46% | |
| 169 | 8% | 40% | |
| 170 | 4% | 32% | |
| 171 | 5% | 28% | |
| 172 | 6% | 23% | |
| 173 | 2% | 18% | |
| 174 | 4% | 16% | |
| 175 | 4% | 12% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 8% | |
| 177 | 2% | 6% | |
| 178 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 179 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 180 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 144 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 145 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 146 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 147 | 2% | 95% | |
| 148 | 2% | 93% | |
| 149 | 4% | 91% | |
| 150 | 4% | 88% | |
| 151 | 5% | 84% | |
| 152 | 4% | 79% | |
| 153 | 5% | 75% | |
| 154 | 4% | 70% | |
| 155 | 5% | 66% | |
| 156 | 5% | 61% | |
| 157 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 158 | 6% | 48% | |
| 159 | 6% | 41% | |
| 160 | 5% | 36% | |
| 161 | 6% | 31% | |
| 162 | 2% | 25% | |
| 163 | 3% | 23% | |
| 164 | 5% | 20% | |
| 165 | 3% | 15% | |
| 166 | 2% | 12% | |
| 167 | 2% | 10% | |
| 168 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 169 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 5% | Last Result |
| 171 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 172 | 2% | 3% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 128 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 129 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 130 | 0.7% | 98.6% | |
| 131 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 132 | 2% | 96% | |
| 133 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 134 | 2% | 94% | |
| 135 | 4% | 92% | |
| 136 | 3% | 88% | |
| 137 | 3% | 85% | |
| 138 | 3% | 82% | |
| 139 | 4% | 79% | |
| 140 | 4% | 75% | |
| 141 | 5% | 72% | |
| 142 | 3% | 67% | |
| 143 | 9% | 63% | |
| 144 | 4% | 54% | Last Result |
| 145 | 4% | 51% | |
| 146 | 7% | 47% | |
| 147 | 5% | 40% | |
| 148 | 4% | 35% | |
| 149 | 6% | 31% | |
| 150 | 3% | 25% | Median |
| 151 | 3% | 22% | |
| 152 | 3% | 19% | |
| 153 | 1.3% | 16% | |
| 154 | 3% | 15% | |
| 155 | 3% | 12% | |
| 156 | 3% | 9% | |
| 157 | 2% | 5% | |
| 158 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 159 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 130 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 132 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 133 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 134 | 3% | 96% | |
| 135 | 2% | 93% | |
| 136 | 4% | 91% | |
| 137 | 3% | 86% | |
| 138 | 5% | 83% | |
| 139 | 2% | 78% | |
| 140 | 2% | 76% | |
| 141 | 3% | 73% | |
| 142 | 4% | 71% | |
| 143 | 6% | 67% | |
| 144 | 5% | 60% | |
| 145 | 9% | 55% | |
| 146 | 3% | 47% | |
| 147 | 6% | 44% | |
| 148 | 4% | 38% | |
| 149 | 5% | 33% | |
| 150 | 4% | 28% | |
| 151 | 3% | 24% | |
| 152 | 5% | 21% | |
| 153 | 2% | 17% | |
| 154 | 4% | 15% | |
| 155 | 3% | 11% | |
| 156 | 2% | 8% | |
| 157 | 2% | 6% | Median |
| 158 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 125 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 126 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 127 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 128 | 3% | 95% | |
| 129 | 2% | 92% | |
| 130 | 1.3% | 90% | |
| 131 | 0.9% | 89% | |
| 132 | 2% | 88% | |
| 133 | 2% | 86% | |
| 134 | 5% | 84% | |
| 135 | 3% | 79% | |
| 136 | 8% | 76% | |
| 137 | 3% | 69% | |
| 138 | 3% | 65% | |
| 139 | 3% | 62% | |
| 140 | 3% | 59% | |
| 141 | 3% | 56% | |
| 142 | 6% | 53% | |
| 143 | 7% | 47% | Last Result |
| 144 | 6% | 40% | |
| 145 | 6% | 35% | |
| 146 | 4% | 28% | |
| 147 | 4% | 25% | Median |
| 148 | 2% | 20% | |
| 149 | 3% | 19% | |
| 150 | 1.4% | 16% | |
| 151 | 6% | 15% | |
| 152 | 2% | 9% | |
| 153 | 2% | 7% | |
| 154 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 155 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 156 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 123 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 124 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 125 | 2% | 98% | |
| 126 | 2% | 95% | |
| 127 | 3% | 93% | |
| 128 | 4% | 90% | Last Result |
| 129 | 3% | 86% | |
| 130 | 6% | 83% | |
| 131 | 6% | 77% | |
| 132 | 5% | 71% | |
| 133 | 5% | 66% | |
| 134 | 6% | 61% | |
| 135 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 136 | 5% | 49% | |
| 137 | 5% | 44% | |
| 138 | 5% | 40% | |
| 139 | 6% | 35% | |
| 140 | 5% | 29% | |
| 141 | 4% | 24% | |
| 142 | 3% | 20% | |
| 143 | 5% | 17% | |
| 144 | 3% | 12% | |
| 145 | 2% | 10% | |
| 146 | 3% | 7% | |
| 147 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 149 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 120 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 121 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 122 | 2% | 98% | |
| 123 | 1.4% | 96% | Last Result |
| 124 | 2% | 95% | |
| 125 | 2% | 93% | |
| 126 | 3% | 91% | |
| 127 | 7% | 88% | |
| 128 | 7% | 80% | |
| 129 | 6% | 73% | |
| 130 | 5% | 67% | |
| 131 | 4% | 62% | |
| 132 | 5% | 59% | |
| 133 | 4% | 53% | Median |
| 134 | 7% | 49% | |
| 135 | 5% | 42% | |
| 136 | 12% | 37% | |
| 137 | 3% | 25% | |
| 138 | 5% | 22% | |
| 139 | 2% | 17% | |
| 140 | 2% | 15% | |
| 141 | 1.5% | 13% | |
| 142 | 2% | 11% | |
| 143 | 5% | 9% | |
| 144 | 2% | 5% | |
| 145 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 146 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 108 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 111 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 112 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 113 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 114 | 5% | 96% | |
| 115 | 6% | 91% | |
| 116 | 2% | 86% | |
| 117 | 5% | 84% | |
| 118 | 7% | 79% | |
| 119 | 3% | 72% | |
| 120 | 10% | 69% | |
| 121 | 3% | 59% | |
| 122 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 123 | 10% | 47% | |
| 124 | 5% | 38% | |
| 125 | 9% | 32% | |
| 126 | 3% | 23% | |
| 127 | 3% | 20% | |
| 128 | 3% | 17% | |
| 129 | 2% | 14% | |
| 130 | 5% | 12% | |
| 131 | 3% | 7% | |
| 132 | 1.1% | 4% | Last Result |
| 133 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 93 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 94 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 95 | 2% | 97% | |
| 96 | 2% | 95% | |
| 97 | 3% | 93% | |
| 98 | 3% | 90% | |
| 99 | 2% | 87% | |
| 100 | 5% | 85% | |
| 101 | 4% | 79% | |
| 102 | 2% | 75% | |
| 103 | 2% | 73% | |
| 104 | 6% | 71% | |
| 105 | 4% | 65% | |
| 106 | 8% | 60% | |
| 107 | 4% | 53% | |
| 108 | 4% | 49% | |
| 109 | 6% | 45% | |
| 110 | 3% | 39% | |
| 111 | 2% | 37% | |
| 112 | 6% | 35% | |
| 113 | 6% | 29% | Median |
| 114 | 8% | 23% | |
| 115 | 1.0% | 15% | |
| 116 | 2% | 14% | Last Result |
| 117 | 3% | 12% | |
| 118 | 2% | 10% | |
| 119 | 2% | 8% | |
| 120 | 4% | 6% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 82 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 83 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 84 | 2% | 97% | |
| 85 | 4% | 96% | |
| 86 | 2% | 92% | |
| 87 | 4% | 90% | |
| 88 | 4% | 86% | |
| 89 | 4% | 82% | |
| 90 | 5% | 78% | |
| 91 | 2% | 74% | |
| 92 | 5% | 72% | |
| 93 | 5% | 68% | |
| 94 | 4% | 63% | |
| 95 | 4% | 59% | |
| 96 | 4% | 55% | |
| 97 | 3% | 51% | |
| 98 | 4% | 48% | |
| 99 | 4% | 44% | |
| 100 | 5% | 40% | |
| 101 | 6% | 35% | |
| 102 | 5% | 29% | |
| 103 | 4% | 24% | Median |
| 104 | 5% | 20% | |
| 105 | 2% | 15% | |
| 106 | 3% | 14% | |
| 107 | 3% | 11% | |
| 108 | 1.5% | 7% | |
| 109 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 110 | 2% | 4% | |
| 111 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 113 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 80 | 2% | 98% | |
| 81 | 2% | 96% | |
| 82 | 5% | 94% | |
| 83 | 4% | 89% | |
| 84 | 6% | 85% | |
| 85 | 6% | 79% | |
| 86 | 8% | 73% | |
| 87 | 10% | 64% | |
| 88 | 9% | 55% | |
| 89 | 5% | 46% | Median |
| 90 | 8% | 41% | |
| 91 | 3% | 33% | |
| 92 | 7% | 29% | |
| 93 | 6% | 23% | |
| 94 | 5% | 17% | |
| 95 | 3% | 12% | |
| 96 | 3% | 9% | |
| 97 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 98 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 99 | 2% | 4% | |
| 100 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Dagens Nyheter
- Fieldwork period: 9–22 April 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1486
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.78%