Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 8 April–5 May 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 26.4% | 25.5–27.4% | 25.2–27.7% | 25.0–27.9% | 24.5–28.4% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 18.0% | 17.2–18.9% | 16.9–19.1% | 16.8–19.3% | 16.4–19.8% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 17.8% | 17.0–18.7% | 16.8–18.9% | 16.6–19.1% | 16.2–19.6% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 10.7% | 10.0–11.4% | 9.8–11.6% | 9.7–11.8% | 9.4–12.1% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.2–9.5% | 8.0–9.7% | 7.9–9.8% | 7.6–10.1% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.2–9.5% | 8.0–9.7% | 7.9–9.8% | 7.6–10.1% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.2–5.1% | 4.1–5.3% | 3.9–5.4% | 3.7–5.6% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.1–3.9% | 3.0–4.1% | 2.9–4.2% | 2.8–4.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 97 | 93–101 | 92–102 | 91–102 | 89–105 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 66 | 63–69 | 62–70 | 61–71 | 59–73 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 65 | 62–68 | 61–70 | 60–70 | 59–72 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 39 | 36–42 | 36–42 | 35–43 | 34–45 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 32 | 30–35 | 29–35 | 29–36 | 28–37 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 32 | 30–34 | 29–35 | 29–36 | 28–37 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 17 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 0–20 | 0–21 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0–14 | 0–15 | 0–16 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 90 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 91 | 3% | 98% | |
| 92 | 4% | 96% | |
| 93 | 4% | 92% | |
| 94 | 12% | 88% | |
| 95 | 13% | 76% | |
| 96 | 8% | 63% | |
| 97 | 11% | 55% | Median |
| 98 | 22% | 44% | |
| 99 | 7% | 22% | |
| 100 | 4% | 15% | Last Result |
| 101 | 5% | 11% | |
| 102 | 4% | 6% | |
| 103 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 104 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 61 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 62 | 5% | 96% | |
| 63 | 7% | 91% | |
| 64 | 14% | 84% | |
| 65 | 18% | 70% | |
| 66 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 67 | 17% | 40% | |
| 68 | 8% | 24% | |
| 69 | 8% | 16% | |
| 70 | 4% | 8% | Last Result |
| 71 | 2% | 4% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 4% | 97% | |
| 62 | 8% | 92% | Last Result |
| 63 | 13% | 85% | |
| 64 | 13% | 72% | |
| 65 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 66 | 16% | 45% | |
| 67 | 11% | 29% | |
| 68 | 8% | 18% | |
| 69 | 4% | 9% | |
| 70 | 3% | 6% | |
| 71 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 36 | 7% | 97% | |
| 37 | 12% | 90% | |
| 38 | 12% | 77% | |
| 39 | 20% | 65% | Median |
| 40 | 22% | 45% | |
| 41 | 10% | 24% | |
| 42 | 9% | 13% | |
| 43 | 3% | 5% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 6% | 98.5% | |
| 30 | 12% | 93% | |
| 31 | 19% | 81% | Last Result |
| 32 | 14% | 62% | Median |
| 33 | 18% | 47% | |
| 34 | 16% | 29% | |
| 35 | 10% | 14% | |
| 36 | 3% | 4% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 28 | 1.0% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 29 | 5% | 98.7% | |
| 30 | 9% | 94% | |
| 31 | 17% | 85% | |
| 32 | 29% | 68% | Median |
| 33 | 13% | 39% | |
| 34 | 17% | 27% | |
| 35 | 5% | 10% | |
| 36 | 3% | 5% | |
| 37 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 0% | 97% | |
| 3 | 0% | 97% | |
| 4 | 0% | 97% | |
| 5 | 0% | 97% | |
| 6 | 0% | 97% | |
| 7 | 0% | 97% | |
| 8 | 0% | 97% | |
| 9 | 0% | 97% | |
| 10 | 0% | 97% | |
| 11 | 0% | 97% | |
| 12 | 0% | 97% | |
| 13 | 0% | 97% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 15 | 10% | 97% | |
| 16 | 25% | 87% | Last Result |
| 17 | 31% | 62% | Median |
| 18 | 19% | 31% | |
| 19 | 9% | 12% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 7% | |
| 10 | 0% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 7% | |
| 12 | 0% | 7% | |
| 13 | 0% | 7% | |
| 14 | 4% | 7% | |
| 15 | 3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 195 | 100% | 190–199 | 188–201 | 186–203 | 183–208 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 179 | 90% | 174–183 | 173–186 | 171–188 | 167–190 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 170 | 10% | 166–175 | 163–176 | 161–178 | 159–182 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 163 | 0.3% | 158–167 | 156–168 | 155–170 | 152–174 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 146 | 0% | 142–152 | 141–154 | 138–156 | 133–158 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 146 | 0% | 141–150 | 138–151 | 137–152 | 133–154 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 143 | 138 | 0% | 134–144 | 133–146 | 132–148 | 130–151 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet | 123 | 137 | 0% | 133–142 | 131–143 | 130–145 | 127–148 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna | 132 | 131 | 0% | 127–135 | 125–137 | 124–138 | 122–141 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 130 | 0% | 125–133 | 123–134 | 122–136 | 120–138 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 114 | 0% | 109–118 | 107–118 | 103–119 | 99–121 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 99 | 0% | 95–104 | 94–108 | 93–110 | 91–113 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 98 | 0% | 94–102 | 93–103 | 92–104 | 90–107 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 180 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 183 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 184 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 185 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 186 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 187 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 188 | 3% | 96% | |
| 189 | 2% | 93% | |
| 190 | 2% | 91% | |
| 191 | 6% | 89% | |
| 192 | 7% | 83% | |
| 193 | 10% | 76% | |
| 194 | 14% | 65% | |
| 195 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 196 | 9% | 44% | |
| 197 | 11% | 35% | |
| 198 | 8% | 24% | |
| 199 | 7% | 16% | |
| 200 | 3% | 9% | |
| 201 | 1.4% | 6% | Last Result |
| 202 | 2% | 5% | |
| 203 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 204 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 205 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 206 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 207 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 208 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 163 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 98.6% | |
| 171 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 172 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 173 | 2% | 95% | |
| 174 | 3% | 93% | |
| 175 | 3% | 90% | Majority |
| 176 | 12% | 86% | |
| 177 | 8% | 74% | |
| 178 | 15% | 66% | Median |
| 179 | 11% | 51% | |
| 180 | 10% | 41% | |
| 181 | 10% | 31% | |
| 182 | 5% | 21% | |
| 183 | 6% | 16% | |
| 184 | 3% | 10% | |
| 185 | 2% | 7% | |
| 186 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 187 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 188 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 189 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 190 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 160 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 161 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 162 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 163 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 164 | 2% | 95% | |
| 165 | 3% | 93% | |
| 166 | 6% | 90% | |
| 167 | 5% | 84% | |
| 168 | 10% | 79% | |
| 169 | 10% | 69% | |
| 170 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 171 | 15% | 49% | |
| 172 | 8% | 34% | |
| 173 | 12% | 26% | |
| 174 | 3% | 14% | |
| 175 | 3% | 10% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 7% | |
| 177 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 178 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 181 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 149 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 154 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 155 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 156 | 3% | 97% | |
| 157 | 3% | 93% | |
| 158 | 4% | 90% | |
| 159 | 6% | 86% | |
| 160 | 7% | 80% | |
| 161 | 10% | 73% | |
| 162 | 7% | 63% | |
| 163 | 16% | 56% | Median |
| 164 | 11% | 40% | |
| 165 | 12% | 29% | |
| 166 | 5% | 17% | |
| 167 | 3% | 12% | |
| 168 | 4% | 9% | |
| 169 | 2% | 5% | |
| 170 | 1.3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 137 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 139 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 140 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 141 | 3% | 95% | |
| 142 | 6% | 92% | |
| 143 | 5% | 86% | |
| 144 | 7% | 81% | |
| 145 | 10% | 74% | |
| 146 | 18% | 64% | Median |
| 147 | 11% | 46% | |
| 148 | 5% | 35% | |
| 149 | 11% | 30% | |
| 150 | 6% | 19% | |
| 151 | 3% | 13% | |
| 152 | 3% | 11% | |
| 153 | 2% | 8% | |
| 154 | 2% | 6% | |
| 155 | 2% | 4% | |
| 156 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 158 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 134 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 136 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 137 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 138 | 2% | 97% | |
| 139 | 2% | 95% | |
| 140 | 3% | 93% | |
| 141 | 3% | 90% | |
| 142 | 7% | 88% | |
| 143 | 5% | 81% | |
| 144 | 10% | 76% | Last Result |
| 145 | 8% | 66% | |
| 146 | 15% | 57% | Median |
| 147 | 14% | 42% | |
| 148 | 9% | 28% | |
| 149 | 6% | 19% | |
| 150 | 8% | 13% | |
| 151 | 2% | 5% | |
| 152 | 2% | 3% | |
| 153 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 132 | 2% | 98% | |
| 133 | 3% | 96% | |
| 134 | 6% | 93% | |
| 135 | 9% | 87% | |
| 136 | 15% | 78% | |
| 137 | 10% | 63% | Median |
| 138 | 10% | 53% | |
| 139 | 7% | 43% | |
| 140 | 11% | 36% | |
| 141 | 5% | 25% | |
| 142 | 6% | 20% | |
| 143 | 3% | 14% | Last Result |
| 144 | 2% | 10% | |
| 145 | 3% | 8% | |
| 146 | 2% | 6% | |
| 147 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 148 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 149 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 129 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 130 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 131 | 3% | 97% | |
| 132 | 3% | 94% | |
| 133 | 4% | 91% | |
| 134 | 6% | 87% | |
| 135 | 10% | 81% | |
| 136 | 15% | 71% | |
| 137 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 138 | 10% | 46% | |
| 139 | 7% | 36% | |
| 140 | 11% | 28% | |
| 141 | 5% | 18% | |
| 142 | 6% | 13% | |
| 143 | 3% | 7% | |
| 144 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 145 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 146 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 148 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 122 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 123 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 124 | 2% | 98% | |
| 125 | 3% | 97% | |
| 126 | 3% | 94% | |
| 127 | 4% | 91% | |
| 128 | 7% | 87% | |
| 129 | 13% | 80% | |
| 130 | 10% | 66% | |
| 131 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 132 | 11% | 44% | Last Result |
| 133 | 12% | 33% | |
| 134 | 8% | 20% | |
| 135 | 4% | 12% | |
| 136 | 2% | 8% | |
| 137 | 2% | 6% | |
| 138 | 2% | 4% | |
| 139 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 122 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 123 | 3% | 97% | |
| 124 | 3% | 94% | |
| 125 | 8% | 91% | |
| 126 | 6% | 83% | |
| 127 | 8% | 77% | |
| 128 | 7% | 68% | Last Result |
| 129 | 9% | 61% | Median |
| 130 | 24% | 52% | |
| 131 | 8% | 28% | |
| 132 | 9% | 21% | |
| 133 | 5% | 12% | |
| 134 | 3% | 7% | |
| 135 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 136 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 137 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 99 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 100 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 104 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 106 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 107 | 2% | 96% | |
| 108 | 2% | 94% | |
| 109 | 4% | 92% | |
| 110 | 4% | 87% | |
| 111 | 8% | 83% | |
| 112 | 14% | 75% | |
| 113 | 9% | 61% | |
| 114 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 115 | 15% | 39% | |
| 116 | 8% | 23% | Last Result |
| 117 | 4% | 15% | |
| 118 | 7% | 11% | |
| 119 | 2% | 5% | |
| 120 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 92 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 93 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 94 | 4% | 97% | |
| 95 | 6% | 93% | |
| 96 | 14% | 87% | |
| 97 | 13% | 73% | |
| 98 | 9% | 60% | Median |
| 99 | 12% | 52% | |
| 100 | 7% | 40% | |
| 101 | 10% | 33% | |
| 102 | 5% | 22% | |
| 103 | 6% | 17% | |
| 104 | 2% | 11% | |
| 105 | 0.9% | 9% | |
| 106 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 107 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 108 | 2% | 6% | |
| 109 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 110 | 2% | 3% | |
| 111 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 90 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 92 | 2% | 98% | |
| 93 | 2% | 97% | |
| 94 | 5% | 94% | |
| 95 | 7% | 89% | |
| 96 | 15% | 82% | |
| 97 | 13% | 67% | |
| 98 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 99 | 12% | 44% | |
| 100 | 7% | 32% | |
| 101 | 10% | 25% | Last Result |
| 102 | 5% | 15% | |
| 103 | 6% | 10% | |
| 104 | 2% | 4% | |
| 105 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 107 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Novus
- Commissioner(s): SVT
- Fieldwork period: 8 April–5 May 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 3404
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.14%