Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Expressen, 29 April–7 May 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 26.6% | 25.2–28.0% | 24.8–28.4% | 24.5–28.8% | 23.8–29.5% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 19.2% | 18.0–20.5% | 17.7–20.9% | 17.4–21.2% | 16.8–21.9% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 15.7% | 14.6–16.9% | 14.3–17.3% | 14.0–17.6% | 13.5–18.2% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 11.5% | 10.5–12.6% | 10.3–12.9% | 10.0–13.2% | 9.6–13.7% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.2–10.1% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.8–10.6% | 7.4–11.1% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.9–9.7% | 7.6–10.0% | 7.4–10.2% | 7.0–10.7% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.7–5.1% | 3.6–5.3% | 3.4–5.4% | 3.2–5.8% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.6–3.7% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 98 | 92–104 | 91–106 | 90–107 | 87–111 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 71 | 66–76 | 65–77 | 64–78 | 61–82 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 58 | 54–62 | 52–64 | 51–65 | 49–68 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 42 | 39–46 | 38–48 | 37–49 | 35–51 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 33 | 30–37 | 29–38 | 29–39 | 27–41 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 32 | 29–36 | 28–37 | 28–38 | 26–40 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 16 | 0–18 | 0–19 | 0–20 | 0–21 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–14 | 0–16 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 87 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 88 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 89 | 0.7% | 98.6% | |
| 90 | 2% | 98% | |
| 91 | 3% | 96% | |
| 92 | 5% | 92% | |
| 93 | 3% | 87% | |
| 94 | 5% | 84% | |
| 95 | 10% | 79% | |
| 96 | 6% | 70% | |
| 97 | 11% | 63% | |
| 98 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 99 | 8% | 41% | |
| 100 | 8% | 33% | Last Result |
| 101 | 3% | 26% | |
| 102 | 6% | 23% | |
| 103 | 4% | 16% | |
| 104 | 4% | 13% | |
| 105 | 3% | 9% | |
| 106 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 107 | 2% | 4% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 63 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 3% | 95% | |
| 66 | 3% | 92% | |
| 67 | 4% | 89% | |
| 68 | 9% | 86% | |
| 69 | 11% | 77% | |
| 70 | 15% | 66% | |
| 71 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 72 | 9% | 38% | |
| 73 | 6% | 29% | |
| 74 | 5% | 24% | |
| 75 | 6% | 19% | |
| 76 | 5% | 14% | |
| 77 | 4% | 8% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 52 | 4% | 97% | |
| 53 | 3% | 93% | |
| 54 | 5% | 90% | |
| 55 | 11% | 86% | |
| 56 | 9% | 75% | |
| 57 | 9% | 66% | |
| 58 | 14% | 57% | Median |
| 59 | 10% | 43% | |
| 60 | 7% | 33% | |
| 61 | 10% | 26% | |
| 62 | 6% | 16% | |
| 63 | 2% | 10% | |
| 64 | 3% | 7% | |
| 65 | 2% | 4% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98% | |
| 38 | 4% | 96% | |
| 39 | 6% | 92% | |
| 40 | 8% | 86% | |
| 41 | 12% | 78% | |
| 42 | 16% | 65% | Median |
| 43 | 12% | 49% | |
| 44 | 12% | 37% | |
| 45 | 8% | 25% | |
| 46 | 8% | 18% | |
| 47 | 3% | 9% | |
| 48 | 3% | 6% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 29 | 4% | 98% | |
| 30 | 7% | 94% | |
| 31 | 14% | 87% | Last Result |
| 32 | 10% | 73% | |
| 33 | 17% | 63% | Median |
| 34 | 10% | 46% | |
| 35 | 13% | 37% | |
| 36 | 7% | 23% | |
| 37 | 7% | 16% | |
| 38 | 5% | 9% | |
| 39 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 40 | 2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 28 | 3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 29 | 11% | 95% | |
| 30 | 12% | 83% | |
| 31 | 10% | 71% | |
| 32 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 33 | 13% | 48% | |
| 34 | 13% | 35% | |
| 35 | 11% | 22% | |
| 36 | 4% | 10% | |
| 37 | 3% | 6% | |
| 38 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 39 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 79% | |
| 2 | 0% | 79% | |
| 3 | 0% | 79% | |
| 4 | 0% | 79% | |
| 5 | 0% | 79% | |
| 6 | 0% | 79% | |
| 7 | 0% | 79% | |
| 8 | 0% | 79% | |
| 9 | 0% | 79% | |
| 10 | 0% | 79% | |
| 11 | 0% | 79% | |
| 12 | 0% | 79% | |
| 13 | 0% | 79% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 79% | |
| 15 | 25% | 79% | |
| 16 | 16% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 17 | 19% | 38% | |
| 18 | 11% | 19% | |
| 19 | 4% | 8% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | |
| 21 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 189 | 99.7% | 182–199 | 180–201 | 179–203 | 176–206 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 195 | 178 | 70% | 170–184 | 167–186 | 165–188 | 162–191 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 171 | 30% | 165–179 | 163–182 | 161–184 | 158–187 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 156 | 0.1% | 149–164 | 148–166 | 146–168 | 143–172 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna | 167 | 145 | 0% | 136–152 | 135–154 | 132–156 | 128–161 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 144 | 0% | 135–150 | 131–152 | 130–154 | 126–157 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 143 | 135 | 0% | 128–142 | 127–144 | 125–147 | 123–150 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet | 123 | 134 | 0% | 128–141 | 126–143 | 125–145 | 122–149 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 130 | 0% | 125–137 | 122–140 | 121–141 | 118–145 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 129 | 0% | 123–136 | 121–138 | 120–140 | 117–143 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 112 | 0% | 102–118 | 99–120 | 97–121 | 94–124 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 92 | 0% | 87–98 | 85–101 | 84–102 | 82–108 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 92 | 0% | 86–97 | 84–99 | 83–101 | 81–104 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 172 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 177 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 178 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 179 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 180 | 2% | 97% | |
| 181 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 182 | 4% | 93% | |
| 183 | 4% | 89% | |
| 184 | 3% | 85% | |
| 185 | 6% | 82% | |
| 186 | 7% | 76% | |
| 187 | 12% | 68% | |
| 188 | 6% | 56% | |
| 189 | 3% | 50% | Median |
| 190 | 7% | 47% | |
| 191 | 10% | 40% | |
| 192 | 4% | 30% | |
| 193 | 3% | 26% | |
| 194 | 3% | 23% | |
| 195 | 2% | 20% | |
| 196 | 2% | 18% | |
| 197 | 2% | 15% | |
| 198 | 2% | 13% | |
| 199 | 3% | 11% | |
| 200 | 2% | 8% | |
| 201 | 2% | 7% | Last Result |
| 202 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 203 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 204 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 205 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 208 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 164 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 165 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 166 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 167 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 168 | 2% | 95% | |
| 169 | 2% | 93% | |
| 170 | 2% | 91% | |
| 171 | 3% | 89% | |
| 172 | 4% | 86% | |
| 173 | 6% | 82% | |
| 174 | 6% | 76% | |
| 175 | 4% | 70% | Majority |
| 176 | 5% | 66% | |
| 177 | 8% | 61% | |
| 178 | 9% | 53% | |
| 179 | 11% | 44% | Median |
| 180 | 8% | 33% | |
| 181 | 4% | 25% | |
| 182 | 3% | 21% | |
| 183 | 5% | 18% | |
| 184 | 3% | 12% | |
| 185 | 3% | 9% | |
| 186 | 2% | 7% | |
| 187 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 188 | 2% | 4% | |
| 189 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 190 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 191 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 159 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 160 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 161 | 2% | 98% | |
| 162 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 163 | 2% | 95% | |
| 164 | 3% | 93% | |
| 165 | 3% | 91% | |
| 166 | 5% | 88% | |
| 167 | 3% | 82% | |
| 168 | 4% | 79% | |
| 169 | 8% | 75% | |
| 170 | 11% | 67% | |
| 171 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 172 | 8% | 47% | |
| 173 | 5% | 39% | |
| 174 | 4% | 34% | |
| 175 | 6% | 30% | Majority |
| 176 | 6% | 24% | |
| 177 | 4% | 18% | |
| 178 | 3% | 14% | |
| 179 | 2% | 11% | |
| 180 | 2% | 9% | |
| 181 | 2% | 7% | |
| 182 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 183 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 184 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 185 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 139 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 143 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 144 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 145 | 0.9% | 98.6% | |
| 146 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 147 | 2% | 97% | |
| 148 | 2% | 95% | |
| 149 | 4% | 93% | |
| 150 | 6% | 89% | |
| 151 | 3% | 83% | |
| 152 | 7% | 80% | |
| 153 | 8% | 73% | |
| 154 | 6% | 65% | |
| 155 | 8% | 58% | |
| 156 | 8% | 50% | Median |
| 157 | 7% | 42% | |
| 158 | 6% | 36% | |
| 159 | 5% | 30% | |
| 160 | 4% | 24% | |
| 161 | 3% | 20% | |
| 162 | 3% | 17% | |
| 163 | 2% | 14% | |
| 164 | 2% | 12% | |
| 165 | 2% | 9% | |
| 166 | 4% | 7% | |
| 167 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 168 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 169 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 170 | 0.6% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 176 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 130 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 131 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 132 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 133 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 134 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 135 | 4% | 96% | |
| 136 | 2% | 91% | |
| 137 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 138 | 1.3% | 89% | |
| 139 | 4% | 88% | |
| 140 | 5% | 84% | |
| 141 | 4% | 78% | |
| 142 | 4% | 74% | |
| 143 | 4% | 71% | |
| 144 | 17% | 67% | |
| 145 | 5% | 50% | |
| 146 | 3% | 45% | |
| 147 | 3% | 42% | Median |
| 148 | 8% | 38% | |
| 149 | 9% | 30% | |
| 150 | 4% | 21% | |
| 151 | 5% | 17% | |
| 152 | 3% | 12% | |
| 153 | 3% | 9% | |
| 154 | 3% | 6% | |
| 155 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 156 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 157 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 129 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 130 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 131 | 2% | 97% | |
| 132 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 133 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 134 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 135 | 1.3% | 91% | |
| 136 | 2% | 90% | |
| 137 | 3% | 87% | |
| 138 | 3% | 84% | |
| 139 | 3% | 81% | |
| 140 | 5% | 77% | |
| 141 | 6% | 73% | |
| 142 | 7% | 67% | |
| 143 | 7% | 61% | |
| 144 | 8% | 53% | Last Result |
| 145 | 6% | 45% | |
| 146 | 8% | 39% | Median |
| 147 | 7% | 31% | |
| 148 | 6% | 24% | |
| 149 | 5% | 18% | |
| 150 | 4% | 13% | |
| 151 | 2% | 9% | |
| 152 | 2% | 7% | |
| 153 | 2% | 5% | |
| 154 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 155 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 123 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 124 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 125 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 126 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 127 | 3% | 96% | |
| 128 | 3% | 93% | |
| 129 | 6% | 90% | |
| 130 | 5% | 84% | |
| 131 | 7% | 80% | |
| 132 | 11% | 72% | |
| 133 | 7% | 61% | Median |
| 134 | 3% | 54% | |
| 135 | 9% | 50% | |
| 136 | 7% | 41% | |
| 137 | 7% | 34% | |
| 138 | 6% | 27% | |
| 139 | 4% | 22% | |
| 140 | 4% | 18% | |
| 141 | 2% | 13% | |
| 142 | 4% | 11% | |
| 143 | 1.4% | 8% | Last Result |
| 144 | 2% | 6% | |
| 145 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 146 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 147 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 150 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 123 | 0.5% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 124 | 1.2% | 98.8% | |
| 125 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 126 | 2% | 96% | |
| 127 | 3% | 95% | |
| 128 | 3% | 91% | |
| 129 | 6% | 88% | |
| 130 | 5% | 83% | |
| 131 | 7% | 78% | |
| 132 | 12% | 70% | |
| 133 | 7% | 59% | Median |
| 134 | 3% | 51% | |
| 135 | 10% | 48% | |
| 136 | 7% | 38% | |
| 137 | 7% | 31% | |
| 138 | 6% | 24% | |
| 139 | 4% | 19% | |
| 140 | 4% | 15% | |
| 141 | 2% | 11% | |
| 142 | 3% | 9% | |
| 143 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 144 | 2% | 5% | |
| 145 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 146 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 147 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 120 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 121 | 2% | 98% | |
| 122 | 2% | 96% | |
| 123 | 2% | 94% | |
| 124 | 2% | 92% | |
| 125 | 6% | 90% | |
| 126 | 7% | 84% | |
| 127 | 8% | 77% | |
| 128 | 8% | 69% | Last Result |
| 129 | 6% | 60% | |
| 130 | 7% | 54% | Median |
| 131 | 12% | 48% | |
| 132 | 7% | 36% | |
| 133 | 5% | 29% | |
| 134 | 3% | 23% | |
| 135 | 3% | 20% | |
| 136 | 4% | 17% | |
| 137 | 4% | 13% | |
| 138 | 3% | 9% | |
| 139 | 2% | 7% | |
| 140 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 141 | 2% | 4% | |
| 142 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 144 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 117 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 118 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 98.6% | |
| 120 | 2% | 98% | |
| 121 | 2% | 96% | |
| 122 | 3% | 94% | |
| 123 | 3% | 91% | |
| 124 | 6% | 89% | |
| 125 | 6% | 82% | |
| 126 | 7% | 76% | |
| 127 | 6% | 69% | |
| 128 | 12% | 63% | |
| 129 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 130 | 7% | 43% | |
| 131 | 6% | 36% | |
| 132 | 8% | 30% | Last Result |
| 133 | 5% | 23% | |
| 134 | 5% | 17% | |
| 135 | 2% | 13% | |
| 136 | 2% | 10% | |
| 137 | 3% | 8% | |
| 138 | 2% | 5% | |
| 139 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 140 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 141 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 143 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 96 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 97 | 2% | 98% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 99 | 2% | 96% | |
| 100 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 101 | 1.1% | 92% | |
| 102 | 2% | 91% | |
| 103 | 2% | 89% | |
| 104 | 3% | 87% | |
| 105 | 3% | 84% | |
| 106 | 3% | 82% | |
| 107 | 4% | 79% | |
| 108 | 4% | 75% | |
| 109 | 4% | 71% | |
| 110 | 6% | 67% | |
| 111 | 7% | 61% | |
| 112 | 5% | 54% | |
| 113 | 10% | 48% | |
| 114 | 7% | 38% | Median |
| 115 | 9% | 31% | |
| 116 | 6% | 22% | Last Result |
| 117 | 4% | 17% | |
| 118 | 4% | 13% | |
| 119 | 3% | 8% | |
| 120 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 121 | 2% | 4% | |
| 122 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 124 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 83 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 84 | 3% | 98% | |
| 85 | 2% | 95% | |
| 86 | 3% | 93% | |
| 87 | 8% | 90% | |
| 88 | 6% | 82% | |
| 89 | 9% | 77% | |
| 90 | 6% | 68% | |
| 91 | 10% | 62% | Median |
| 92 | 12% | 53% | |
| 93 | 6% | 40% | |
| 94 | 6% | 34% | |
| 95 | 5% | 28% | |
| 96 | 6% | 23% | |
| 97 | 4% | 17% | |
| 98 | 3% | 13% | |
| 99 | 2% | 9% | |
| 100 | 2% | 7% | |
| 101 | 2% | 5% | |
| 102 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 104 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 82 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 83 | 1.3% | 98.7% | |
| 84 | 3% | 97% | |
| 85 | 2% | 95% | |
| 86 | 3% | 92% | |
| 87 | 8% | 89% | |
| 88 | 6% | 81% | |
| 89 | 9% | 75% | |
| 90 | 6% | 66% | |
| 91 | 10% | 60% | Median |
| 92 | 12% | 50% | |
| 93 | 7% | 38% | |
| 94 | 6% | 31% | |
| 95 | 5% | 25% | |
| 96 | 6% | 20% | |
| 97 | 4% | 14% | |
| 98 | 3% | 10% | |
| 99 | 2% | 7% | |
| 100 | 2% | 5% | |
| 101 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 102 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demoskop
- Commissioner(s): Expressen
- Fieldwork period: 29 April–7 May 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1618
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.99%