Opinion Poll by Sifo, 6–16 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 27.0% 26.4–27.6% 26.3–27.8% 26.1–27.9% 25.8–28.2%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 18.1% 17.6–18.6% 17.5–18.8% 17.3–18.9% 17.1–19.1%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 15.9% 15.4–16.4% 15.3–16.5% 15.2–16.7% 15.0–16.9%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 12.0% 11.6–12.4% 11.5–12.6% 11.4–12.7% 11.2–12.9%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 8.9% 8.5–9.3% 8.4–9.4% 8.3–9.5% 8.2–9.7%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 8.2% 7.8–8.6% 7.7–8.7% 7.7–8.8% 7.5–8.9%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 4.5% 4.2–4.8% 4.2–4.9% 4.1–4.9% 4.0–5.1%
Liberalerna 5.5% 3.8% 3.6–4.1% 3.5–4.1% 3.4–4.2% 3.3–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 99 96–101 95–102 94–103 92–104
Sverigedemokraterna 62 67 64–69 63–70 62–70 61–71
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 58 56–60 55–61 55–61 54–62
Kristdemokraterna 22 44 42–46 42–46 41–47 40–47
Vänsterpartiet 28 33 31–34 31–34 30–35 29–36
Centerpartiet 31 30 29–32 28–32 28–32 27–33
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 17 15–17 15–18 15–18 0–19
Liberalerna 20 0 0–14 0–15 0–15 0–15

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.2% 100%  
92 0.4% 99.8%  
93 2% 99.4%  
94 2% 98%  
95 4% 95%  
96 5% 92%  
97 13% 87%  
98 23% 74%  
99 17% 51% Median
100 14% 34% Last Result
101 10% 20%  
102 6% 10%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.8% 1.2%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0.5% 99.8%  
62 3% 99.4% Last Result
63 3% 97%  
64 6% 94%  
65 12% 87%  
66 14% 75%  
67 23% 61% Median
68 18% 37%  
69 13% 19%  
70 5% 6%  
71 0.7% 0.8%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 1.4% 99.8%  
55 4% 98%  
56 6% 95%  
57 15% 88%  
58 28% 74% Median
59 24% 46%  
60 14% 21%  
61 6% 7%  
62 1.1% 1.4%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.9%  
41 3% 99.3%  
42 9% 96%  
43 17% 88%  
44 27% 71% Median
45 20% 44%  
46 21% 23%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.9% 100%  
30 3% 99.0%  
31 14% 96%  
32 31% 83%  
33 29% 52% Median
34 18% 23%  
35 4% 5%  
36 0.8% 0.8%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.9% 99.9%  
28 5% 99.0%  
29 22% 94%  
30 32% 72% Median
31 29% 40% Last Result
32 10% 11%  
33 1.1% 1.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 0% 99.3%  
2 0% 99.3%  
3 0% 99.3%  
4 0% 99.3%  
5 0% 99.3%  
6 0% 99.3%  
7 0% 99.3%  
8 0% 99.3%  
9 0% 99.3%  
10 0% 99.3%  
11 0% 99.3%  
12 0% 99.3%  
13 0% 99.3%  
14 0.3% 99.3%  
15 11% 99.1%  
16 38% 88% Last Result
17 42% 50% Median
18 8% 8%  
19 0.6% 0.7%  
20 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Median
1 0% 13%  
2 0% 13%  
3 0% 13%  
4 0% 13%  
5 0% 13%  
6 0% 13%  
7 0% 13%  
8 0% 13%  
9 0% 13%  
10 0% 13%  
11 0% 13%  
12 0% 13%  
13 0% 13%  
14 7% 13%  
15 6% 6%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 187 100% 182–191 180–191 179–192 177–195
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 195 179 99.2% 177–184 176–187 175–189 173–191
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna 154 170 0.8% 165–172 162–173 160–174 158–176
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 157 0% 153–160 151–161 150–162 148–164
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 167 146 0% 144–153 143–156 143–157 140–159
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 148 0% 144–152 141–152 140–153 138–154
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 143 134 0% 131–141 130–143 130–144 129–146
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet 123 133 0% 129–135 127–136 126–137 125–139
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 131 0% 128–135 126–136 125–136 123–138
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 132 126 0% 121–128 119–129 118–129 116–131
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 115 0% 112–118 110–119 109–120 105–121
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 89 0% 87–99 87–100 86–101 85–103
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 89 0% 86–91 85–92 84–92 82–93

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
176 0.1% 100%  
177 0.3% 99.8%  
178 2% 99.5%  
179 2% 98%  
180 4% 96%  
181 2% 93%  
182 1.4% 91%  
183 2% 89%  
184 1.4% 87%  
185 7% 86%  
186 9% 79%  
187 24% 70% Median
188 9% 47%  
189 15% 37%  
190 11% 22%  
191 8% 11%  
192 2% 3%  
193 1.0% 2%  
194 0.2% 0.7%  
195 0.1% 0.5%  
196 0.1% 0.5%  
197 0.2% 0.4%  
198 0% 0.2%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0.1% 100%  
170 0.1% 99.9%  
171 0.1% 99.7%  
172 0.1% 99.6%  
173 0.1% 99.5%  
174 0.2% 99.5%  
175 2% 99.2% Majority
176 6% 97%  
177 17% 91%  
178 22% 74%  
179 12% 52% Median
180 9% 40%  
181 8% 30%  
182 5% 23%  
183 3% 17%  
184 4% 14%  
185 2% 10%  
186 2% 7%  
187 1.5% 6%  
188 2% 4%  
189 1.1% 3%  
190 0.9% 2%  
191 0.5% 0.6%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100% Last Result
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0.5% 100%  
159 0.9% 99.4%  
160 1.1% 98%  
161 2% 97%  
162 1.5% 96%  
163 2% 94%  
164 2% 93%  
165 4% 90%  
166 3% 86%  
167 5% 83%  
168 8% 77%  
169 9% 70% Median
170 12% 60%  
171 22% 48%  
172 17% 26%  
173 6% 9%  
174 2% 3%  
175 0.2% 0.8% Majority
176 0.1% 0.5%  
177 0.1% 0.5%  
178 0.1% 0.4%  
179 0.1% 0.3%  
180 0.1% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0.2% 100%  
148 0.4% 99.8%  
149 2% 99.4%  
150 2% 98%  
151 3% 95%  
152 3% 93%  
153 2% 90%  
154 4% 88%  
155 3% 85%  
156 23% 82%  
157 15% 59% Median
158 10% 44%  
159 18% 34%  
160 7% 16%  
161 5% 8%  
162 2% 3%  
163 0.5% 1.2%  
164 0.3% 0.7%  
165 0.1% 0.4%  
166 0.1% 0.3%  
167 0% 0.2%  
168 0.1% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0.1% 100%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.7%  
137 0.1% 99.7%  
138 0.1% 99.6%  
139 0% 99.5%  
140 0.1% 99.5%  
141 0.2% 99.4%  
142 2% 99.2%  
143 5% 98%  
144 14% 93%  
145 13% 78%  
146 23% 66% Median
147 10% 43%  
148 10% 33%  
149 5% 22%  
150 2% 17%  
151 2% 15%  
152 2% 13%  
153 3% 11%  
154 1.2% 9%  
155 2% 7%  
156 2% 5%  
157 2% 3%  
158 0.9% 1.4%  
159 0.4% 0.5%  
160 0.1% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0.1% 100%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.8%  
135 0% 99.8%  
136 0% 99.8%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0.3% 99.7%  
139 0.7% 99.4%  
140 2% 98.7%  
141 3% 97%  
142 2% 94%  
143 2% 92%  
144 2% 91% Last Result
145 3% 89%  
146 9% 86%  
147 26% 77%  
148 15% 50%  
149 14% 35% Median
150 7% 21%  
151 4% 14%  
152 5% 10%  
153 4% 5%  
154 0.8% 1.0%  
155 0.2% 0.2%  
156 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0.1% 100%  
128 0.3% 99.9%  
129 0.8% 99.7%  
130 6% 98.9%  
131 7% 93%  
132 13% 86% Median
133 12% 73%  
134 19% 61%  
135 20% 42%  
136 5% 22%  
137 2% 16%  
138 0.9% 14%  
139 1.0% 14%  
140 2% 13%  
141 2% 11%  
142 3% 9%  
143 3% 6% Last Result
144 2% 3%  
145 0.7% 1.2%  
146 0.2% 0.5%  
147 0.1% 0.3%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0.1% 100% Last Result
124 0.3% 99.9%  
125 1.5% 99.6%  
126 1.3% 98%  
127 3% 97%  
128 3% 94%  
129 3% 91%  
130 7% 88%  
131 7% 81%  
132 13% 74% Median
133 13% 60%  
134 19% 48%  
135 20% 29%  
136 5% 9%  
137 2% 3%  
138 0.7% 1.3%  
139 0.4% 0.6%  
140 0.1% 0.3%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0.1% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0.2% 100%  
123 0.4% 99.8%  
124 2% 99.4%  
125 2% 98%  
126 1.3% 95%  
127 3% 94%  
128 3% 91% Last Result
129 4% 88%  
130 21% 84%  
131 22% 63%  
132 9% 41% Median
133 14% 32%  
134 7% 18%  
135 5% 11%  
136 4% 6%  
137 1.0% 2%  
138 0.2% 0.6%  
139 0.2% 0.4%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0.7% 100%  
117 0.7% 99.3%  
118 1.4% 98.6%  
119 2% 97%  
120 2% 95%  
121 3% 93%  
122 6% 90%  
123 6% 84%  
124 8% 78%  
125 18% 70% Median
126 25% 51%  
127 10% 26%  
128 10% 16%  
129 5% 6%  
130 0.4% 1.1%  
131 0.3% 0.7%  
132 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
133 0.2% 0.3%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0.1% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.1% 99.7%  
104 0.1% 99.6%  
105 0% 99.5%  
106 0.1% 99.5%  
107 0.2% 99.4%  
108 1.1% 99.1%  
109 1.0% 98%  
110 3% 97%  
111 2% 94%  
112 3% 91%  
113 9% 88%  
114 15% 79%  
115 23% 64%  
116 15% 41% Last Result, Median
117 12% 26%  
118 6% 14%  
119 5% 8%  
120 2% 3%  
121 0.9% 1.0%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.3% 100%  
85 1.3% 99.7%  
86 3% 98%  
87 9% 95%  
88 21% 87% Median
89 27% 66%  
90 9% 39%  
91 10% 30%  
92 5% 20%  
93 0.9% 14%  
94 0.2% 14%  
95 0.1% 13%  
96 0.3% 13%  
97 0.6% 13%  
98 2% 12%  
99 3% 10%  
100 3% 7%  
101 2% 4%  
102 2% 2%  
103 0.3% 0.6%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.4% 99.9%  
83 2% 99.5%  
84 2% 98%  
85 5% 96%  
86 6% 91%  
87 10% 85%  
88 21% 75% Median
89 27% 53%  
90 9% 26%  
91 10% 17%  
92 5% 6%  
93 0.9% 1.3%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations