Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 6–21 May 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 28.3% | 26.0% | 24.8–27.2% | 24.4–27.6% | 24.2–27.9% | 23.6–28.5% |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.5% | 17.0% | 16.0–18.1% | 15.7–18.4% | 15.4–18.6% | 15.0–19.2% |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 19.8% | 16.0% | 15.0–17.1% | 14.7–17.4% | 14.5–17.6% | 14.0–18.1% |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.3% | 12.0% | 11.1–12.9% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.7–13.4% | 10.3–13.9% |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.2–10.9% | 9.0–11.1% | 8.8–11.3% | 8.4–11.8% |
| Centerpartiet | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.2–9.8% | 8.0–10.1% | 7.8–10.3% | 7.5–10.7% |
| Liberalerna | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.0–5.2% |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.0–5.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 100 | 94 | 89–99 | 87–101 | 86–103 | 85–105 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 62 | 62 | 57–65 | 56–67 | 56–68 | 54–71 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet | 70 | 58 | 54–62 | 53–63 | 52–65 | 51–66 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 22 | 44 | 40–47 | 39–48 | 38–49 | 37–51 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 28 | 36 | 33–40 | 32–41 | 32–41 | 30–43 |
| Centerpartiet | 31 | 33 | 30–36 | 29–37 | 28–37 | 27–39 |
| Liberalerna | 20 | 15 | 15–16 | 15–16 | 0–16 | 0–17 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 16 | 0 | 0–16 | 0–17 | 0–17 | 0–19 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 85 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 86 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 87 | 2% | 96% | |
| 88 | 4% | 95% | |
| 89 | 4% | 91% | |
| 90 | 4% | 87% | |
| 91 | 8% | 83% | |
| 92 | 7% | 75% | |
| 93 | 11% | 68% | |
| 94 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 95 | 13% | 50% | |
| 96 | 10% | 37% | |
| 97 | 8% | 27% | |
| 98 | 4% | 19% | |
| 99 | 6% | 15% | |
| 100 | 3% | 8% | Last Result |
| 101 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 102 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 103 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 56 | 5% | 98% | |
| 57 | 4% | 93% | |
| 58 | 10% | 90% | |
| 59 | 8% | 80% | |
| 60 | 9% | 71% | |
| 61 | 8% | 62% | |
| 62 | 9% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 63 | 16% | 45% | |
| 64 | 8% | 29% | |
| 65 | 11% | 20% | |
| 66 | 3% | 10% | |
| 67 | 3% | 7% | |
| 68 | 2% | 4% | |
| 69 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 52 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 53 | 4% | 96% | |
| 54 | 4% | 92% | |
| 55 | 10% | 88% | |
| 56 | 11% | 78% | |
| 57 | 14% | 67% | |
| 58 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 59 | 8% | 42% | |
| 60 | 13% | 34% | |
| 61 | 7% | 21% | |
| 62 | 4% | 14% | |
| 63 | 5% | 10% | |
| 64 | 2% | 5% | |
| 65 | 2% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Kristdemokraterna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 39 | 4% | 97% | |
| 40 | 5% | 93% | |
| 41 | 11% | 89% | |
| 42 | 12% | 78% | |
| 43 | 15% | 66% | |
| 44 | 16% | 51% | Median |
| 45 | 15% | 35% | |
| 46 | 8% | 20% | |
| 47 | 4% | 12% | |
| 48 | 4% | 8% | |
| 49 | 3% | 4% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Vänsterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 32 | 3% | 98% | |
| 33 | 7% | 95% | |
| 34 | 9% | 88% | |
| 35 | 18% | 79% | |
| 36 | 16% | 61% | Median |
| 37 | 15% | 45% | |
| 38 | 10% | 30% | |
| 39 | 7% | 20% | |
| 40 | 8% | 13% | |
| 41 | 3% | 5% | |
| 42 | 2% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Centerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 29 | 7% | 97% | |
| 30 | 8% | 90% | |
| 31 | 11% | 82% | Last Result |
| 32 | 16% | 71% | |
| 33 | 16% | 55% | Median |
| 34 | 17% | 39% | |
| 35 | 10% | 22% | |
| 36 | 6% | 12% | |
| 37 | 3% | 6% | |
| 38 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalerna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 96% | |
| 2 | 0% | 96% | |
| 3 | 0% | 96% | |
| 4 | 0% | 96% | |
| 5 | 0% | 96% | |
| 6 | 0% | 96% | |
| 7 | 0% | 96% | |
| 8 | 0% | 96% | |
| 9 | 0% | 96% | |
| 10 | 0% | 96% | |
| 11 | 0% | 96% | |
| 12 | 0% | 96% | |
| 13 | 0% | 96% | |
| 14 | 0% | 96% | |
| 15 | 54% | 96% | Median |
| 16 | 41% | 41% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Miljöpartiet de gröna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 50% | |
| 2 | 0% | 50% | |
| 3 | 0% | 50% | |
| 4 | 0% | 50% | |
| 5 | 0% | 50% | |
| 6 | 0% | 50% | |
| 7 | 0% | 50% | |
| 8 | 0% | 50% | |
| 9 | 0% | 50% | |
| 10 | 0% | 50% | |
| 11 | 0% | 50% | |
| 12 | 0% | 50% | |
| 13 | 0% | 50% | |
| 14 | 12% | 50% | |
| 15 | 21% | 38% | |
| 16 | 12% | 18% | Last Result |
| 17 | 4% | 6% | |
| 18 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 201 | 185 | 97% | 177–193 | 176–194 | 174–196 | 172–201 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 195 | 186 | 98% | 179–193 | 177–194 | 175–195 | 171–198 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna | 154 | 163 | 2% | 156–170 | 155–172 | 154–174 | 151–178 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet | 170 | 152 | 0% | 146–159 | 144–161 | 143–163 | 140–166 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 167 | 149 | 0% | 141–157 | 140–159 | 138–160 | 133–163 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 143 | 149 | 0% | 143–156 | 141–157 | 139–158 | 133–161 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 144 | 138 | 0% | 130–146 | 128–148 | 127–149 | 125–153 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet | 123 | 134 | 0% | 128–141 | 127–142 | 125–144 | 123–147 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet | 128 | 130 | 0% | 124–137 | 123–139 | 122–140 | 119–143 |
| Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet | 132 | 120 | 0% | 114–126 | 112–127 | 112–129 | 109–132 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna | 121 | 105 | 0% | 100–111 | 99–113 | 95–114 | 89–116 |
| Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna | 116 | 102 | 0% | 93–110 | 92–112 | 91–114 | 89–116 |
| Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet | 101 | 91 | 0% | 85–96 | 84–98 | 83–98 | 82–102 |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 169 | 0% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 173 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 174 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 175 | 2% | 97% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 96% | |
| 177 | 4% | 94% | |
| 178 | 4% | 90% | |
| 179 | 4% | 86% | |
| 180 | 4% | 81% | |
| 181 | 7% | 77% | |
| 182 | 6% | 70% | |
| 183 | 4% | 64% | |
| 184 | 4% | 59% | |
| 185 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 186 | 4% | 45% | |
| 187 | 5% | 40% | |
| 188 | 6% | 36% | |
| 189 | 5% | 30% | |
| 190 | 9% | 25% | |
| 191 | 3% | 16% | |
| 192 | 2% | 13% | |
| 193 | 3% | 10% | |
| 194 | 3% | 7% | |
| 195 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 196 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 197 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 198 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 199 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 201 | 0.2% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 165 | 0% | 100% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 168 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 174 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 175 | 1.0% | 98% | Majority |
| 176 | 2% | 97% | |
| 177 | 3% | 96% | |
| 178 | 2% | 92% | Median |
| 179 | 6% | 90% | |
| 180 | 3% | 84% | |
| 181 | 3% | 81% | |
| 182 | 9% | 78% | |
| 183 | 5% | 69% | |
| 184 | 8% | 64% | |
| 185 | 5% | 56% | |
| 186 | 5% | 51% | |
| 187 | 4% | 46% | |
| 188 | 6% | 42% | |
| 189 | 5% | 35% | |
| 190 | 6% | 30% | |
| 191 | 4% | 24% | |
| 192 | 9% | 20% | |
| 193 | 3% | 11% | |
| 194 | 3% | 8% | |
| 195 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 196 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 197 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 198 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 152 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 153 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 154 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 155 | 3% | 95% | |
| 156 | 3% | 92% | |
| 157 | 9% | 89% | |
| 158 | 4% | 80% | |
| 159 | 6% | 76% | |
| 160 | 5% | 70% | |
| 161 | 6% | 65% | |
| 162 | 4% | 58% | |
| 163 | 5% | 54% | |
| 164 | 5% | 49% | Median |
| 165 | 8% | 44% | |
| 166 | 5% | 36% | |
| 167 | 9% | 31% | |
| 168 | 3% | 22% | |
| 169 | 3% | 19% | |
| 170 | 6% | 16% | |
| 171 | 2% | 10% | |
| 172 | 3% | 8% | |
| 173 | 2% | 4% | |
| 174 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 175 | 0.6% | 2% | Majority |
| 176 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 141 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 142 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 143 | 2% | 98% | |
| 144 | 2% | 95% | |
| 145 | 2% | 93% | |
| 146 | 6% | 91% | |
| 147 | 3% | 85% | |
| 148 | 8% | 82% | |
| 149 | 5% | 74% | |
| 150 | 7% | 69% | |
| 151 | 7% | 62% | |
| 152 | 6% | 55% | Median |
| 153 | 7% | 49% | |
| 154 | 7% | 42% | |
| 155 | 8% | 35% | |
| 156 | 9% | 27% | |
| 157 | 3% | 19% | |
| 158 | 4% | 16% | |
| 159 | 4% | 12% | |
| 160 | 2% | 8% | |
| 161 | 2% | 6% | |
| 162 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 163 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 164 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 137 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 139 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 140 | 2% | 96% | |
| 141 | 4% | 94% | |
| 142 | 5% | 90% | Median |
| 143 | 3% | 84% | |
| 144 | 7% | 81% | |
| 145 | 4% | 74% | |
| 146 | 9% | 70% | |
| 147 | 4% | 61% | |
| 148 | 5% | 58% | |
| 149 | 3% | 53% | |
| 150 | 5% | 49% | |
| 151 | 3% | 44% | |
| 152 | 6% | 41% | |
| 153 | 6% | 36% | |
| 154 | 2% | 30% | |
| 155 | 8% | 28% | |
| 156 | 3% | 20% | |
| 157 | 8% | 17% | |
| 158 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 159 | 4% | 8% | |
| 160 | 2% | 3% | |
| 161 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 137 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 139 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 140 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 141 | 3% | 96% | |
| 142 | 2% | 93% | |
| 143 | 5% | 90% | Last Result |
| 144 | 5% | 86% | |
| 145 | 4% | 81% | |
| 146 | 7% | 78% | |
| 147 | 7% | 70% | |
| 148 | 8% | 64% | |
| 149 | 8% | 55% | |
| 150 | 9% | 47% | Median |
| 151 | 5% | 39% | |
| 152 | 4% | 33% | |
| 153 | 6% | 29% | |
| 154 | 9% | 23% | |
| 155 | 2% | 14% | |
| 156 | 5% | 12% | |
| 157 | 3% | 7% | |
| 158 | 2% | 4% | |
| 159 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 126 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 127 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 128 | 3% | 97% | |
| 129 | 2% | 94% | |
| 130 | 3% | 92% | Median |
| 131 | 4% | 89% | |
| 132 | 9% | 85% | |
| 133 | 3% | 76% | |
| 134 | 4% | 73% | |
| 135 | 5% | 69% | |
| 136 | 5% | 64% | |
| 137 | 6% | 59% | |
| 138 | 4% | 53% | |
| 139 | 5% | 49% | |
| 140 | 5% | 44% | |
| 141 | 4% | 39% | |
| 142 | 5% | 35% | |
| 143 | 8% | 30% | |
| 144 | 7% | 22% | Last Result |
| 145 | 3% | 15% | |
| 146 | 3% | 12% | |
| 147 | 4% | 9% | |
| 148 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 149 | 2% | 4% | |
| 150 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 151 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 124 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 125 | 1.5% | 98.8% | |
| 126 | 2% | 97% | |
| 127 | 3% | 95% | |
| 128 | 5% | 92% | |
| 129 | 5% | 88% | |
| 130 | 5% | 82% | |
| 131 | 6% | 77% | |
| 132 | 7% | 72% | |
| 133 | 10% | 64% | |
| 134 | 7% | 54% | |
| 135 | 9% | 48% | Median |
| 136 | 4% | 39% | |
| 137 | 8% | 35% | |
| 138 | 8% | 27% | |
| 139 | 4% | 19% | |
| 140 | 3% | 15% | |
| 141 | 4% | 12% | |
| 142 | 4% | 8% | |
| 143 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 144 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 145 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 120 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 121 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 122 | 2% | 98% | |
| 123 | 2% | 95% | |
| 124 | 5% | 94% | |
| 125 | 3% | 89% | |
| 126 | 5% | 86% | |
| 127 | 6% | 81% | |
| 128 | 11% | 75% | Last Result |
| 129 | 6% | 64% | |
| 130 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 131 | 8% | 49% | |
| 132 | 11% | 41% | |
| 133 | 4% | 30% | |
| 134 | 5% | 26% | |
| 135 | 5% | 22% | |
| 136 | 4% | 16% | |
| 137 | 5% | 12% | |
| 138 | 2% | 8% | |
| 139 | 2% | 5% | |
| 140 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 141 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% |
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 110 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 111 | 0.8% | 98.7% | |
| 112 | 3% | 98% | |
| 113 | 3% | 95% | |
| 114 | 9% | 92% | |
| 115 | 6% | 82% | |
| 116 | 7% | 76% | |
| 117 | 4% | 69% | |
| 118 | 6% | 65% | |
| 119 | 6% | 59% | |
| 120 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 121 | 7% | 44% | |
| 122 | 6% | 37% | |
| 123 | 10% | 31% | |
| 124 | 4% | 22% | |
| 125 | 6% | 17% | |
| 126 | 5% | 11% | |
| 127 | 2% | 6% | |
| 128 | 2% | 5% | |
| 129 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 130 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 133 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 98.5% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 98 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 99 | 5% | 95% | |
| 100 | 5% | 90% | |
| 101 | 2% | 85% | |
| 102 | 5% | 83% | |
| 103 | 4% | 78% | |
| 104 | 10% | 74% | |
| 105 | 15% | 64% | |
| 106 | 6% | 49% | Median |
| 107 | 5% | 43% | |
| 108 | 9% | 37% | |
| 109 | 8% | 29% | |
| 110 | 10% | 21% | |
| 111 | 3% | 11% | |
| 112 | 2% | 8% | |
| 113 | 3% | 6% | |
| 114 | 2% | 3% | |
| 115 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 90 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 91 | 3% | 98% | |
| 92 | 3% | 95% | |
| 93 | 4% | 92% | |
| 94 | 2% | 88% | Median |
| 95 | 6% | 85% | |
| 96 | 8% | 80% | |
| 97 | 6% | 72% | |
| 98 | 3% | 66% | |
| 99 | 6% | 62% | |
| 100 | 3% | 57% | |
| 101 | 3% | 53% | |
| 102 | 2% | 50% | |
| 103 | 3% | 48% | |
| 104 | 4% | 44% | |
| 105 | 7% | 40% | |
| 106 | 2% | 34% | |
| 107 | 3% | 31% | |
| 108 | 6% | 28% | |
| 109 | 8% | 22% | |
| 110 | 5% | 14% | |
| 111 | 2% | 9% | |
| 112 | 2% | 6% | |
| 113 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 114 | 2% | 3% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 117 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 83 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 84 | 4% | 97% | |
| 85 | 5% | 93% | |
| 86 | 3% | 88% | |
| 87 | 5% | 85% | |
| 88 | 8% | 80% | |
| 89 | 11% | 72% | |
| 90 | 11% | 61% | |
| 91 | 7% | 50% | Median |
| 92 | 8% | 43% | |
| 93 | 6% | 35% | |
| 94 | 12% | 29% | |
| 95 | 6% | 17% | |
| 96 | 1.5% | 10% | |
| 97 | 2% | 9% | |
| 98 | 4% | 7% | |
| 99 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 100 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 102 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Dagens Nyheter
- Fieldwork period: 6–21 May 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2144
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.67%