Opinion Poll by SCB, 29 April–28 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 28.3% 27.6% 27.0–28.2% 26.8–28.4% 26.7–28.5% 26.4–28.8%
Sverigedemokraterna 17.5% 17.1% 16.6–17.6% 16.5–17.8% 16.3–17.9% 16.1–18.2%
Moderata samlingspartiet 19.8% 16.0% 15.5–16.5% 15.4–16.7% 15.3–16.8% 15.0–17.0%
Kristdemokraterna 6.3% 13.0% 12.5–13.5% 12.4–13.6% 12.3–13.7% 12.1–13.9%
Vänsterpartiet 8.0% 8.7% 8.3–9.1% 8.2–9.2% 8.1–9.3% 8.0–9.5%
Centerpartiet 8.6% 6.9% 6.6–7.3% 6.5–7.4% 6.4–7.4% 6.2–7.6%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 4.4% 5.7% 5.4–6.0% 5.3–6.1% 5.2–6.2% 5.1–6.4%
Liberalerna 5.5% 3.7% 3.4–4.0% 3.4–4.0% 3.3–4.1% 3.2–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 100 101 98–104 98–104 97–105 95–106
Sverigedemokraterna 62 63 60–65 60–65 59–66 58–67
Moderata samlingspartiet 70 59 57–61 56–61 56–62 54–62
Kristdemokraterna 22 48 46–50 45–50 44–50 44–51
Vänsterpartiet 28 32 30–33 30–34 30–34 29–35
Centerpartiet 31 25 24–27 23–27 23–27 23–28
Miljöpartiet de gröna 16 21 20–22 19–22 19–23 19–23
Liberalerna 20 0 0 0–14 0–14 0–15

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.3% 99.9%  
95 0.8% 99.6%  
96 1.2% 98.8%  
97 2% 98%  
98 7% 95%  
99 8% 88%  
100 15% 79% Last Result
101 22% 65% Median
102 21% 43%  
103 12% 22%  
104 7% 10%  
105 3% 3%  
106 0.5% 0.6%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 1.0% 99.9%  
59 2% 98.9%  
60 10% 96%  
61 15% 87%  
62 16% 72% Last Result
63 26% 55% Median
64 19% 29%  
65 7% 11%  
66 3% 4%  
67 0.9% 1.0%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.5% 99.9%  
55 2% 99.4%  
56 6% 98%  
57 17% 91%  
58 23% 74%  
59 25% 51% Median
60 13% 26%  
61 10% 13%  
62 3% 3%  
63 0.5% 0.5%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.3% 100%  
44 2% 99.7%  
45 4% 97%  
46 13% 94%  
47 25% 81%  
48 29% 56% Median
49 17% 27%  
50 9% 10%  
51 1.1% 1.4%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100% Last Result
29 2% 99.9%  
30 9% 98%  
31 22% 89%  
32 42% 68% Median
33 18% 25%  
34 6% 7%  
35 1.5% 2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 5% 99.7%  
24 22% 95%  
25 31% 73% Median
26 30% 43%  
27 12% 13%  
28 1.5% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100% Last Result
17 0% 100%  
18 0.4% 100%  
19 8% 99.5%  
20 25% 92%  
21 37% 67% Median
22 25% 29%  
23 4% 5%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0% 8%  
4 0% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 0% 8%  
7 0% 8%  
8 0% 8%  
9 0% 8%  
10 0% 8%  
11 0% 8%  
12 0% 8%  
13 0% 8%  
14 6% 8%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 201 185 99.6% 181–188 179–189 177–189 175–190
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 195 180 99.7% 177–184 176–187 176–187 175–189
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna 154 169 0.3% 165–172 162–173 162–173 160–174
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 170 160 0% 157–163 155–163 153–164 151–165
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 144 154 0% 150–157 149–158 148–158 145–159
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna 167 148 0% 145–152 144–156 144–157 143–159
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 143 132 0% 129–136 129–140 129–141 127–143
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 128 133 0% 130–136 129–136 127–137 125–138
Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet 123 132 0% 128–134 127–135 125–136 124–137
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 116 122 0% 119–125 118–125 117–126 114–127
Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet 132 121 0% 118–124 117–125 116–125 114–126
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 121 84 0% 82–88 81–94 81–95 80–97
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 101 84 0% 81–86 80–87 80–88 78–88

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
173 0.1% 100%  
174 0.3% 99.9%  
175 0.4% 99.6% Majority
176 1.3% 99.2%  
177 0.9% 98%  
178 2% 97%  
179 2% 95%  
180 0.9% 93%  
181 3% 92%  
182 5% 90%  
183 9% 84%  
184 13% 76%  
185 17% 63% Median
186 18% 46%  
187 14% 28%  
188 9% 14%  
189 4% 6%  
190 0.9% 1.2%  
191 0.2% 0.3%  
192 0.1% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
173 0% 100%  
174 0.3% 99.9%  
175 2% 99.7% Majority
176 4% 98%  
177 8% 94%  
178 13% 87%  
179 19% 74% Median
180 12% 55%  
181 18% 43%  
182 10% 25%  
183 5% 15%  
184 3% 11%  
185 1.0% 8%  
186 0.9% 7%  
187 4% 6%  
188 1.2% 2%  
189 0.6% 0.9%  
190 0.2% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100% Last Result
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0.1% 100%  
159 0.2% 99.9%  
160 0.6% 99.7%  
161 1.2% 99.1%  
162 4% 98%  
163 0.9% 94%  
164 1.0% 93%  
165 3% 92%  
166 5% 89%  
167 10% 85%  
168 18% 75%  
169 12% 57%  
170 19% 45% Median
171 13% 26%  
172 8% 13%  
173 4% 6%  
174 2% 2%  
175 0.3% 0.3% Majority
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0.1% 100%  
150 0.3% 99.9%  
151 0.7% 99.6%  
152 1.3% 98.9%  
153 0.6% 98%  
154 2% 97%  
155 3% 95%  
156 2% 92%  
157 7% 90%  
158 9% 83%  
159 19% 74%  
160 18% 55% Median
161 17% 38%  
162 11% 21%  
163 5% 10%  
164 4% 5%  
165 0.6% 0.8%  
166 0.2% 0.2%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0.1% 100% Last Result
145 0.5% 99.9%  
146 0.7% 99.3%  
147 0.8% 98.6%  
148 1.3% 98%  
149 3% 97%  
150 3% 93%  
151 5% 90%  
152 10% 84%  
153 13% 75%  
154 19% 61% Median
155 16% 42%  
156 14% 26%  
157 7% 12%  
158 4% 5%  
159 0.6% 1.0%  
160 0.3% 0.4%  
161 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Centerpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0.1% 100%  
142 0.2% 99.9%  
143 0.7% 99.7%  
144 4% 99.0%  
145 6% 94%  
146 12% 88%  
147 19% 76% Median
148 16% 57%  
149 18% 41%  
150 8% 23%  
151 4% 15%  
152 2% 11%  
153 0.8% 8%  
154 0.9% 7%  
155 1.1% 6%  
156 3% 5%  
157 2% 3%  
158 0.6% 1.2%  
159 0.4% 0.5%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0.1% 100%  
127 0.5% 99.9%  
128 2% 99.4%  
129 8% 98%  
130 10% 90%  
131 20% 80%  
132 14% 60% Median
133 20% 47%  
134 9% 27%  
135 7% 18%  
136 2% 11%  
137 0.7% 9%  
138 1.2% 8%  
139 2% 7%  
140 1.3% 5%  
141 2% 4%  
142 1.1% 2%  
143 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
144 0.1% 0.3%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0.1% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0.1% 100%  
125 0.3% 99.8%  
126 0.7% 99.5%  
127 1.4% 98.8%  
128 2% 97% Last Result
129 5% 96%  
130 6% 91%  
131 9% 85%  
132 15% 76%  
133 17% 61% Median
134 20% 44%  
135 12% 24%  
136 8% 12%  
137 3% 4%  
138 0.6% 1.0%  
139 0.3% 0.4%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0.2% 100%  
123 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
124 1.2% 99.6%  
125 2% 98%  
126 1.5% 97%  
127 3% 95%  
128 3% 92%  
129 8% 90%  
130 10% 82%  
131 20% 72%  
132 14% 52% Median
133 20% 38%  
134 9% 19%  
135 7% 9%  
136 2% 3%  
137 0.5% 0.7%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0.1% 100%  
114 0.5% 99.9%  
115 0.4% 99.4%  
116 1.3% 99.0% Last Result
117 1.2% 98%  
118 4% 96%  
119 7% 93%  
120 8% 85%  
121 13% 77%  
122 23% 64% Median
123 16% 41%  
124 15% 25%  
125 6% 10%  
126 3% 4%  
127 0.9% 1.0%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0.1% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.6% 99.8%  
115 0.7% 99.2%  
116 3% 98%  
117 3% 96%  
118 6% 93%  
119 8% 87%  
120 12% 78%  
121 23% 66%  
122 17% 43% Median
123 11% 26%  
124 7% 15%  
125 7% 8%  
126 0.8% 1.2%  
127 0.3% 0.4%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.2% 100%  
80 1.0% 99.8%  
81 4% 98.8%  
82 11% 95%  
83 19% 84%  
84 20% 65% Median
85 14% 45%  
86 16% 31%  
87 4% 15%  
88 2% 11%  
89 0.3% 9%  
90 0.1% 8%  
91 0.1% 8%  
92 0.3% 8%  
93 0.8% 8%  
94 3% 7%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.9% 2%  
97 0.7% 1.1%  
98 0.3% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.2% 100%  
78 0.4% 99.8%  
79 1.2% 99.4%  
80 4% 98%  
81 6% 94%  
82 12% 88%  
83 19% 76%  
84 20% 57% Median
85 14% 37%  
86 16% 23%  
87 4% 7%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.3% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations